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• 1. [Article] Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040

  The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Vaidya, Kanhaiya, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2011 The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce long-term population forecasts for each of the two sewer service districts. In addition, CCSD#1 requested that forecasts also be developed to include the entire city of Damascus to account for possible future annexation into its district; and the city of Milwaukie, as CCSD#1 leases services to Milwaukie. The forecast horizon extends 30 years from 2010 to 2040, and projections are produced in 5-year intervals. For the 2010-2015 interval, forecast numbers for single years are included. Forecasts for three growth scenarios – high, medium, and low scenarios – are developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. We consider the medium growth forecast to be the most-likely scenario. We also include in this report an analysis of recent demographic trends that have bearing on our assumptions for future growth in study areas. Title: Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Vaidya, Kanhaiya, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2011 The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce long-term population forecasts for each of the two sewer service districts. In addition, CCSD#1 requested that forecasts also be developed to include the entire city of Damascus to account for possible future annexation into its district; and the city of Milwaukie, as CCSD#1 leases services to Milwaukie. The forecast horizon extends 30 years from 2010 to 2040, and projections are produced in 5-year intervals. For the 2010-2015 interval, forecast numbers for single years are included. Forecasts for three growth scenarios – high, medium, and low scenarios – are developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. We consider the medium growth forecast to be the most-likely scenario. We also include in this report an analysis of recent demographic trends that have bearing on our assumptions for future growth in study areas. Close

• 2. [Article] North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. After 22 consecutive years of enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09, total K‐12 enrollment in the North Clackamas School District has fallen for four consecutive years. The largest decline occurred between Fall 2011 and Fall 2012 as District enrollment, now 17,044, fell by 236 students. Over the four year period between 2008‐09 and 2012‐13, elementary (K‐5th) grades had a net loss of about six percent while middle (6th‐8th) grades lost about two percent and high school (9th‐12th) grades lost about three percent. Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. After 22 consecutive years of enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09, total K‐12 enrollment in the North Clackamas School District has fallen for four consecutive years. The largest decline occurred between Fall 2011 and Fall 2012 as District enrollment, now 17,044, fell by 236 students. Over the four year period between 2008‐09 and 2012‐13, elementary (K‐5th) grades had a net loss of about six percent while middle (6th‐8th) grades lost about two percent and high school (9th‐12th) grades lost about three percent. Close

• 3. [Article] Ashland School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Ashland School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Ashland School District (ASD) in recent years, "baseline" forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years and "baseline" forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The forecasts are characterized as baseline because they do not include additional residents of other districts who may enroll in ASD schools as a result of the new open enrollment policy. Fall 2011 K‐12 enrollment in all ASD schools was 2,720, 17 students (0.6 percent) less than in Fall 2010. District‐wide enrollment is now 844 students (23.7 percent) less than the peak 18 years ago, in the 1993‐94 school year. Enrollment losses of more than 100 students each year occurred in 2004‐05 and 2005‐06. Since 2005‐06 the District has experienced relatively stable or slightly increasing K‐12 enrollment in three years, and decreasing enrollment the other three years, with a net K‐12 enrollment loss of 195 students (6.7 percent) over the six year period. Title: Ashland School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Ashland School District (ASD) in recent years, "baseline" forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years and "baseline" forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The forecasts are characterized as baseline because they do not include additional residents of other districts who may enroll in ASD schools as a result of the new open enrollment policy. Fall 2011 K‐12 enrollment in all ASD schools was 2,720, 17 students (0.6 percent) less than in Fall 2010. District‐wide enrollment is now 844 students (23.7 percent) less than the peak 18 years ago, in the 1993‐94 school year. Enrollment losses of more than 100 students each year occurred in 2004‐05 and 2005‐06. Since 2005‐06 the District has experienced relatively stable or slightly increasing K‐12 enrollment in three years, and decreasing enrollment the other three years, with a net K‐12 enrollment loss of 195 students (6.7 percent) over the six year period. Close

• 4. [Article] Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on BSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual elementary school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 school years. Title: Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on BSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual elementary school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 school years. Close

• 5. [Article] North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The District enrolled 17,280 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 68 students (‐0.4 percent) from Fall 2010. Following the recent economic recession, which began in late 2008, enrollment has declined for NCSD in each of the last three consecutive years. This period of decline in the number of students stands in stark contrast to the preceding 22 consecutive years of K‐12 enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09. Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The District enrolled 17,280 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 68 students (‐0.4 percent) from Fall 2010. Following the recent economic recession, which began in late 2008, enrollment has declined for NCSD in each of the last three consecutive years. This period of decline in the number of students stands in stark contrast to the preceding 22 consecutive years of K‐12 enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09. Close

• 6. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine County’s total population as a whole has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Grants Pass and Cave Junction posted average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slow growth in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years— bringing population decline in 2012. Since 2012 net in-migration has increased, driving population increase for 2013 and 2014. Total population in Josephine County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs over time population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 16,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 38,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine County’s total population as a whole has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Grants Pass and Cave Junction posted average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slow growth in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years— bringing population decline in 2012. Since 2012 net in-migration has increased, driving population increase for 2013 and 2014. Total population in Josephine County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs over time population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 16,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 38,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 7. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of nearly zero between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more population growth during the 2000s. Lakeside and Bandon, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Coos County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2013. Total population in Coos County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period, and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend already yielding natural decrease (births minus deaths). As natural decrease persists and becomes more pronounced over time, population growth in Coos County is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Coos County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 1,200 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 2,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period. Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s will likely experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population gains throughout the forecast period, although these gains will likely be small. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of nearly zero between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more population growth during the 2000s. Lakeside and Bandon, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Coos County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2013. Total population in Coos County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period, and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend already yielding natural decrease (births minus deaths). As natural decrease persists and becomes more pronounced over time, population growth in Coos County is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Coos County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 1,200 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 2,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period. Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s will likely experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population gains throughout the forecast period, although these gains will likely be small. Close

• 8. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Crook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout the last decade (2000 to 2010), as a result the countywide population growth rate also fluctuated. At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to a decline in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—beginning in 2011. While net inmigration and natural increase contributed to substantial population growth from 2005 to 2008, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—leading to population decline between 2009 and 2012. Total population in Crook County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an expected aging population—a demographic trend which will lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Crook County’s total population is expected to increase by more than 2,700 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Prineville UGB is forecast to show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s— in the initial 20-year forecast period, but is expected to slow down substantially during the last 30 years. The area outside the UGB will likely grow at a steadier rate than Prineville throughout the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Crook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout the last decade (2000 to 2010), as a result the countywide population growth rate also fluctuated. At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to a decline in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—beginning in 2011. While net inmigration and natural increase contributed to substantial population growth from 2005 to 2008, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—leading to population decline between 2009 and 2012. Total population in Crook County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an expected aging population—a demographic trend which will lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Crook County’s total population is expected to increase by more than 2,700 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Prineville UGB is forecast to show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s— in the initial 20-year forecast period, but is expected to slow down substantially during the last 30 years. The area outside the UGB will likely grow at a steadier rate than Prineville throughout the forecast period. Close

• 9. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Curry ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Curry County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Gold Beach posted the highest average annual growth rate at one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Curry County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2012. Total population in Curry County as a whole will likely grow at a faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to exacerbate natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. For the area outside UGBs this will likely lead to population decline during the last 30 years of the forecast period. The remaining sub-areas are expected to see population increase over this same time period. Even so, Curry County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 3,900 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,700 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Curry County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Gold Beach posted the highest average annual growth rate at one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Curry County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2012. Total population in Curry County as a whole will likely grow at a faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to exacerbate natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. For the area outside UGBs this will likely lead to population decline during the last 30 years of the forecast period. The remaining sub-areas are expected to see population increase over this same time period. Even so, Curry County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 3,900 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,700 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 10. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes County’s total population has grown rapidly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of more than three percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); in addition, most of its sub-areas experienced even more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sisters and La Pine posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.8 and 6.3 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Deschutes County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and steady natural increase (i.e., more births than deaths). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2014. While net in-migration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, it is clear that in more recent years (i.e., 2010 to 2014) net inmigration played the most prominent role in population growth. Total population in Deschutes County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Deschutes County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 78,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 186,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes County’s total population has grown rapidly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of more than three percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); in addition, most of its sub-areas experienced even more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sisters and La Pine posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.8 and 6.3 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Deschutes County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and steady natural increase (i.e., more births than deaths). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2014. While net in-migration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, it is clear that in more recent years (i.e., 2010 to 2014) net inmigration played the most prominent role in population growth. Total population in Deschutes County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Deschutes County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 78,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 186,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close