Search

Search Results

• 1. [Article] Housing Needs Study for the Portland Metropolitan Area Final Report

  The purpose of this report is to respond to the recommendations of the Regional Housing Choice Task Force by providing information to guide housing choice policy for the Metro Council. In particular, the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Housing Needs Study for the Portland Metropolitan Area Final Report Author: Hough, George C., Jr., Martin, Sheila A., Mildner, Gerard C., Proehl, Risa Year: 2008 The purpose of this report is to respond to the recommendations of the Regional Housing Choice Task Force by providing information to guide housing choice policy for the Metro Council. In particular, the objectives of this project were to: Estimate current and future affordable housing need for the Metro region; Describe the distribution of households by income, age, and size across the metro region; Describe the tenure of these households and the type of housing they will choose; Identify and describe those household types that are most likely to struggle to meet the cost of housing based on their income; and Make recommendations for improving analysis of affordable housing need in the future. Our approach to this task was to use output from the Metroscope model, using the base case scenario, to forecast the housing consumption decisions of households from 2005 to 2035. We chose the Metroscope model after also considering the State of Oregon?s Housing/Land Needs model. We concluded from examining the assumptions and abilities of each model that Metroscope is better able to offer the Metro Council the insight into the housing market required to inform housing choice policy. The Metroscope model incorporates housing supply and demand for the entire four-county metropolitan region (Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, and Clark counties). The region comprises a single housing market; residents travel throughout the region to work, shop, and socialize. Thus, it makes little sense to examine any one county in isolation. Given the assumptions of the Metroscope model (described in Section 2), we address several questions, including: Where will household growth occur? What kinds of households will grow? What kinds of housing will these households live in? What percentage of their income will they pay for housing? What demographic groups are most cost-burdened and where do those households reside? Title: Housing Needs Study for the Portland Metropolitan Area Final Report Author: Hough, George C., Jr., Martin, Sheila A., Mildner, Gerard C., Proehl, Risa Year: 2008 The purpose of this report is to respond to the recommendations of the Regional Housing Choice Task Force by providing information to guide housing choice policy for the Metro Council. In particular, the objectives of this project were to: Estimate current and future affordable housing need for the Metro region; Describe the distribution of households by income, age, and size across the metro region; Describe the tenure of these households and the type of housing they will choose; Identify and describe those household types that are most likely to struggle to meet the cost of housing based on their income; and Make recommendations for improving analysis of affordable housing need in the future. Our approach to this task was to use output from the Metroscope model, using the base case scenario, to forecast the housing consumption decisions of households from 2005 to 2035. We chose the Metroscope model after also considering the State of Oregon?s Housing/Land Needs model. We concluded from examining the assumptions and abilities of each model that Metroscope is better able to offer the Metro Council the insight into the housing market required to inform housing choice policy. The Metroscope model incorporates housing supply and demand for the entire four-county metropolitan region (Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, and Clark counties). The region comprises a single housing market; residents travel throughout the region to work, shop, and socialize. Thus, it makes little sense to examine any one county in isolation. Given the assumptions of the Metroscope model (described in Section 2), we address several questions, including: Where will household growth occur? What kinds of households will grow? What kinds of housing will these households live in? What percentage of their income will they pay for housing? What demographic groups are most cost-burdened and where do those households reside? Close

• 2. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments

  The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after the Fall 2008 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2008 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. In Fall 2008, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,024 students in grades K-12, only 59 fewer students than in Fall 2007. This small loss (one tenth of one percent) extends the string of enrollment losses to 12 years, but is unlike the much larger losses of the previous 11 years. This year’s K-12 enrollment should be characterized as essentially stable compared with last year’s. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after the Fall 2008 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2008 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. In Fall 2008, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,024 students in grades K-12, only 59 fewer students than in Fall 2007. This small loss (one tenth of one percent) extends the string of enrollment losses to 12 years, but is unlike the much larger losses of the previous 11 years. This year’s K-12 enrollment should be characterized as essentially stable compared with last year’s. Close

• 3. [Article] The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2000-2010, Based on October 2000 Enrollments

  This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2000-2010, Based on October 2000 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Lycan, Richard, Proehl, Risa Year: 2000 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the second report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. The first report (dated July 2000) was based on October 1999 enrollments; this report relies on October 2000 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes five different scenarios of housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2000 to 2010. Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2000-2010, Based on October 2000 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Lycan, Richard, Proehl, Risa Year: 2000 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the second report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. The first report (dated July 2000) was based on October 1999 enrollments; this report relies on October 2000 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes five different scenarios of housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2000 to 2010. Close

• 4. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments

  The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Close

• 5. [Article] Lower Columbia College Enrollment Forecast, 2000 – 2010

  This report provides a student enrollment forecast, including background demographic information and analysis, for Lower Columbia College (LCC). The report considers several factors that are likely to ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Lower Columbia College Enrollment Forecast, 2000 – 2010 Author: Edmonston, Barry, Proehl, Risa Year: 2000 This report provides a student enrollment forecast, including background demographic information and analysis, for Lower Columbia College (LCC). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the College’s enrollment between 2000 and 2010, including and the geographical areas within and surrounding the service district (Cowlitz and Wahkiakum Counties, the cities of Longview, Kelso, Woodland and others in the vicinity). Five different scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment participation changes were developed to demonstrate their effects on enrollments. Three scenarios rely on different rates of housing and population growth, and two depend on changes of enrollment participation in the Service Area. For each scenario, a forecast was made for total enrollment, by student type, for the years 2000, 2005, and 2010. Title: Lower Columbia College Enrollment Forecast, 2000 – 2010 Author: Edmonston, Barry, Proehl, Risa Year: 2000 This report provides a student enrollment forecast, including background demographic information and analysis, for Lower Columbia College (LCC). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the College’s enrollment between 2000 and 2010, including and the geographical areas within and surrounding the service district (Cowlitz and Wahkiakum Counties, the cities of Longview, Kelso, Woodland and others in the vicinity). Five different scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment participation changes were developed to demonstrate their effects on enrollments. Three scenarios rely on different rates of housing and population growth, and two depend on changes of enrollment participation in the Service Area. For each scenario, a forecast was made for total enrollment, by student type, for the years 2000, 2005, and 2010. Close

• 6. [Article] San Diego Quality of Life Indices: Calculating the Social Indicators of Risk and Protective Factors

  A system of measurements, the San Diego Quality of Life Indices (SDCQOLI), is being developed and reported in response to the need of successful prevention of the use and abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: San Diego Quality of Life Indices: Calculating the Social Indicators of Risk and Protective Factors Author: Proehl, Risa, Sharkova, Irina V., TELESIS Corporation, San Diego, CA Year: 2002 A system of measurements, the San Diego Quality of Life Indices (SDCQOLI), is being developed and reported in response to the need of successful prevention of the use and abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drugs (ATOD) and ATOD service delivery. The purpose of the SDCQOLI is to serve as a utility for public policy applications (ATOD prevention and others), both community-sponsored and initiated by the San Diego County and local governments, in order to achieve the mission of the County of San Diego "...to improve the region's Quality of Life" (County of San Diego...). Title: San Diego Quality of Life Indices: Calculating the Social Indicators of Risk and Protective Factors Author: Proehl, Risa, Sharkova, Irina V., TELESIS Corporation, San Diego, CA Year: 2002 A system of measurements, the San Diego Quality of Life Indices (SDCQOLI), is being developed and reported in response to the need of successful prevention of the use and abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drugs (ATOD) and ATOD service delivery. The purpose of the SDCQOLI is to serve as a utility for public policy applications (ATOD prevention and others), both community-sponsored and initiated by the San Diego County and local governments, in order to achieve the mission of the County of San Diego "...to improve the region's Quality of Life" (County of San Diego...). Close

• 7. [Article] Quality of Life Community Collaborative Demographic Profiles

  Demographic profiles have been created for at the regional and community levels for San Diego County. There is an individual demographic profile for each of 10 Community Collaboratives in San Diego County ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Quality of Life Community Collaborative Demographic Profiles Author: Proehl, Risa, Sharkova, Irina V., TELESIS Corporation, San Diego, CA Year: 2002 Demographic profiles have been created for at the regional and community levels for San Diego County. There is an individual demographic profile for each of 10 Community Collaboratives in San Diego County as a whole. The demographic profiles all have the same structure and consist of the same variables to provide consistency so that comparisons can be made between communities. The profiles were created to provide background information for a larger project, the development of Quality of Life Indices for the San Diego County Alcohol and Drug Services Agency. Title: Quality of Life Community Collaborative Demographic Profiles Author: Proehl, Risa, Sharkova, Irina V., TELESIS Corporation, San Diego, CA Year: 2002 Demographic profiles have been created for at the regional and community levels for San Diego County. There is an individual demographic profile for each of 10 Community Collaboratives in San Diego County as a whole. The demographic profiles all have the same structure and consist of the same variables to provide consistency so that comparisons can be made between communities. The profiles were created to provide background information for a larger project, the development of Quality of Life Indices for the San Diego County Alcohol and Drug Services Agency. Close

• 8. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine County’s total population as a whole has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Grants Pass and Cave Junction posted average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slow growth in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years— bringing population decline in 2012. Since 2012 net in-migration has increased, driving population increase for 2013 and 2014. Total population in Josephine County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs over time population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 16,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 38,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine County’s total population as a whole has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Grants Pass and Cave Junction posted average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slow growth in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years— bringing population decline in 2012. Since 2012 net in-migration has increased, driving population increase for 2013 and 2014. Total population in Josephine County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs over time population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 16,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 38,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 9. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of nearly zero between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more population growth during the 2000s. Lakeside and Bandon, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Coos County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2013. Total population in Coos County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period, and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend already yielding natural decrease (births minus deaths). As natural decrease persists and becomes more pronounced over time, population growth in Coos County is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Coos County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 1,200 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 2,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period. Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s will likely experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population gains throughout the forecast period, although these gains will likely be small. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of nearly zero between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more population growth during the 2000s. Lakeside and Bandon, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Coos County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2013. Total population in Coos County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period, and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend already yielding natural decrease (births minus deaths). As natural decrease persists and becomes more pronounced over time, population growth in Coos County is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Coos County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 1,200 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 2,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period. Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s will likely experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population gains throughout the forecast period, although these gains will likely be small. Close

• 10. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Crook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout the last decade (2000 to 2010), as a result the countywide population growth rate also fluctuated. At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to a decline in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—beginning in 2011. While net inmigration and natural increase contributed to substantial population growth from 2005 to 2008, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—leading to population decline between 2009 and 2012. Total population in Crook County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an expected aging population—a demographic trend which will lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Crook County’s total population is expected to increase by more than 2,700 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Prineville UGB is forecast to show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s— in the initial 20-year forecast period, but is expected to slow down substantially during the last 30 years. The area outside the UGB will likely grow at a steadier rate than Prineville throughout the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Crook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout the last decade (2000 to 2010), as a result the countywide population growth rate also fluctuated. At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to a decline in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—beginning in 2011. While net inmigration and natural increase contributed to substantial population growth from 2005 to 2008, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—leading to population decline between 2009 and 2012. Total population in Crook County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an expected aging population—a demographic trend which will lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Crook County’s total population is expected to increase by more than 2,700 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Prineville UGB is forecast to show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s— in the initial 20-year forecast period, but is expected to slow down substantially during the last 30 years. The area outside the UGB will likely grow at a steadier rate than Prineville throughout the forecast period. Close