Search

Search Results

• 1. [Article] Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2013

  The dataset also includes: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2012 (prepared January 2013) Estimates of Population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2013 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2014 The dataset also includes: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2012 (prepared January 2013) Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2011 (prepared January 2011) Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2013 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2014 The dataset also includes: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2012 (prepared January 2013) Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2011 (prepared January 2011) Close

• 2. [Article] Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2015

  Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2015. Prepared by Population Research Center, Portland State University, January ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2015 Author: Proehl, Risa, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2016 Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2015. Prepared by Population Research Center, Portland State University, January 2016. Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2015 Author: Proehl, Risa, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2016 Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2015. Prepared by Population Research Center, Portland State University, January 2016. Close

• 3. [Article] Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2014

  Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2014 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2015 Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties. Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2014 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2015 Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties. Close

• 4. [Article] Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2011

  Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2011 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2012 Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties. Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2011 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2012 Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties. Close

• 5. [Article] Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2010

  Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2010 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2010 Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties. Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2010 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2010 Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties. Close

• 6. [Article] Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2012

  Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2012 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2013 Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties. Title: Estimates of Population Age Groups (ages under 18 yrs., 18-64 yrs., and 65 yrs. and over) for Oregon and Its Counties, July 1, 2012 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2013 Estimates of population age groups for Oregon and its counties. Close

• 7. [Article] 2000-2009 Intercensal Population Estimates by Age Group for Oregon and Counties

  This item only contains Oregon population tables, by age group, comparing 2000 and 2009 census data.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: 2000-2009 Intercensal Population Estimates by Age Group for Oregon and Counties Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2010 This item only contains Oregon population tables, by age group, comparing 2000 and 2009 census data. Title: 2000-2009 Intercensal Population Estimates by Age Group for Oregon and Counties Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2010 This item only contains Oregon population tables, by age group, comparing 2000 and 2009 census data. Close

• 8. [Article] Estimates for Population Ages 4-20 Years for Oregon and Its Counties

  Estimates for population ages 4-20 years for Oregon and its counties.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estimates for Population Ages 4-20 Years for Oregon and Its Counties Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2010 Estimates for population ages 4-20 years for Oregon and its counties. Title: Estimates for Population Ages 4-20 Years for Oregon and Its Counties Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa Year: 2010 Estimates for population ages 4-20 years for Oregon and its counties. Close

• 9. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler County’s total population has declined slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of just above negative one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced some population growth during the 2000s. Fossil, the most populous UGB, experienced small growth and Spray posted the highest average annual growth rate at 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wheeler County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of an aging population. The aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages, has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration and natural decrease compounded to create a substantial population decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, migration into the county increased in the later part of the decade and helped to offset the natural decrease. Net out-migration was still substantial for populations between the ages of 20 and 29 years from 2000 to 2010, but there has been net in-migration for a slightly older population from 30 to 39 years of age. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it some slight population growth. Total population in Wheeler County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slightly slower pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The declining of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a steady natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Wheeler County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 90 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by more than 300 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience similar rates of population decline during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler County’s total population has declined slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of just above negative one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced some population growth during the 2000s. Fossil, the most populous UGB, experienced small growth and Spray posted the highest average annual growth rate at 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wheeler County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of an aging population. The aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages, has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration and natural decrease compounded to create a substantial population decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, migration into the county increased in the later part of the decade and helped to offset the natural decrease. Net out-migration was still substantial for populations between the ages of 20 and 29 years from 2000 to 2010, but there has been net in-migration for a slightly older population from 30 to 39 years of age. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it some slight population growth. Total population in Wheeler County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slightly slower pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The declining of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a steady natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Wheeler County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 90 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by more than 300 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience similar rates of population decline during the forecast period. Close

• 10. [Article] Population Tables for State, Counties and Cities

  Tables include: Components of Annual Population Change for Oregon: 1960 to 2010 Population Estimates of Oregon by Area Type and Specific Metropolitan Areas: 2000 to 2010 Components of Population Change ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Tables for State, Counties and Cities Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2011 Tables include: Components of Annual Population Change for Oregon: 1960 to 2010 Population Estimates of Oregon by Area Type and Specific Metropolitan Areas: 2000 to 2010 Components of Population Change for Oregon's Counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010 Population Estimates for Oregon and Its Counties and Incorporated Cities: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010 Population Estimates for Incorporated Cities Located in More than One County Rank of Incorporated Cities by July 1, 2010 Population Size Alphabetical Listing of Incorporated Cities with Population for July 1, 2010 Population Added to Incorporated Cities Due to Annexations: April 1, 2000 - July 1, 2010 Population by Age and Sex for Oregon and Its Counties: July 1, 2010 Population by Age Groups (less than 18 Years, 18-64 Years, and 65 Years and Older) for Oregon and Its Counties: July 1, 2010 Title: Population Tables for State, Counties and Cities Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2011 Tables include: Components of Annual Population Change for Oregon: 1960 to 2010 Population Estimates of Oregon by Area Type and Specific Metropolitan Areas: 2000 to 2010 Components of Population Change for Oregon's Counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010 Population Estimates for Oregon and Its Counties and Incorporated Cities: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010 Population Estimates for Incorporated Cities Located in More than One County Rank of Incorporated Cities by July 1, 2010 Population Size Alphabetical Listing of Incorporated Cities with Population for July 1, 2010 Population Added to Incorporated Cities Due to Annexations: April 1, 2000 - July 1, 2010 Population by Age and Sex for Oregon and Its Counties: July 1, 2010 Population by Age Groups (less than 18 Years, 18-64 Years, and 65 Years and Older) for Oregon and Its Counties: July 1, 2010 Close

• 11. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Close

• 12. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Gilliam County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Gilliam County’s total population declined during the 2000s, with average annual growth rate of negative two-tenths of one percent (Figure 1); however, since 2010 the county has seen a slight increase ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Gilliam County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Gilliam County’s total population declined during the 2000s, with average annual growth rate of negative two-tenths of one percent (Figure 1); however, since 2010 the county has seen a slight increase in population, growing by more than 100 persons between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Gilliam County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural decrease and periods of net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease in nearly every year from 2000 to 2010. While net in-migration fluctuated during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been increased stably during recent years, contributing to population increase since 2009. Total population in Gilliam County as a whole is expected to increase over the forecast period, with the majority of this growth occurring within Arlington UGB (Figure 1). Increasing net in-migration is expected to offset the growth in the natural decrease throughout the entire 50-year forecast period. An aging population in the near-term is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a steady number of births. During the final 31 years of the forecast period, the population is expected to shift toward younger ages leading to more births and a steady number of deaths. This combined with steady net in-migration is expected to lead to continued steady population growth. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Gilliam County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Gilliam County’s total population declined during the 2000s, with average annual growth rate of negative two-tenths of one percent (Figure 1); however, since 2010 the county has seen a slight increase in population, growing by more than 100 persons between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Gilliam County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural decrease and periods of net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease in nearly every year from 2000 to 2010. While net in-migration fluctuated during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been increased stably during recent years, contributing to population increase since 2009. Total population in Gilliam County as a whole is expected to increase over the forecast period, with the majority of this growth occurring within Arlington UGB (Figure 1). Increasing net in-migration is expected to offset the growth in the natural decrease throughout the entire 50-year forecast period. An aging population in the near-term is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a steady number of births. During the final 31 years of the forecast period, the population is expected to shift toward younger ages leading to more births and a steady number of deaths. This combined with steady net in-migration is expected to lead to continued steady population growth. Close

• 13. [Article] The Path Ahead: Future enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2000-2010

  This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Path Ahead: Future enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2000-2010 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes five different scenarios of housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2000 to 2010. Title: The Path Ahead: Future enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2000-2010 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes five different scenarios of housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2000 to 2010. Close

• 14. [Article] Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools

  The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, migration, and international migration have affected public school enrollments in Portland. This report reaches four main conclusions: * First and foremost, public school enrollments have declined in recent years primarily because there have been sizeable decreases in the number of students entering kindergarten and the early elementary school grades. Smaller numbers of entering students are, in turn, the result of substantial reductions in the number of births--reductions that began in 1991. Because there were fewer births in the early 1990s, fewer students enrolled in school in the late 1990s. The number of births declined in the 1980s primarily because there were decreases in the number of younger couples--not because there were decreases in the average number of births per couples in the 1980s. * The number of births has continued to decline in the 1990s. The lower number of births in the second half of the decade has not yet affected school enrollments. But they will add to declines in school enrollments in the future, starting after about 2002. Although there was net out-migration of school-age children, in the 1980s and 1990s, net out-migration of school-age children appears to have increased in the late 1990s, further reducing enrollments. * Increased international migration into the Portland metropolitan area has ameliorated the decline in enrollments by adding several thousand foreign-born students to the Portland Public Schools. Immigrant couples are contributing an increasing number of births to the population. Births to immigrants partially counterbalance fertility declines among native-born residents. * There is conflicting evidence from public, private, and home schooling data on changes in public school capture rates (the proportion of school age children enrolled in Portland Public Schools). Available data, however, suggest that changes in capture rates have not been a major determinant of public school enrollment trends. Title: Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, migration, and international migration have affected public school enrollments in Portland. This report reaches four main conclusions: * First and foremost, public school enrollments have declined in recent years primarily because there have been sizeable decreases in the number of students entering kindergarten and the early elementary school grades. Smaller numbers of entering students are, in turn, the result of substantial reductions in the number of births--reductions that began in 1991. Because there were fewer births in the early 1990s, fewer students enrolled in school in the late 1990s. The number of births declined in the 1980s primarily because there were decreases in the number of younger couples--not because there were decreases in the average number of births per couples in the 1980s. * The number of births has continued to decline in the 1990s. The lower number of births in the second half of the decade has not yet affected school enrollments. But they will add to declines in school enrollments in the future, starting after about 2002. Although there was net out-migration of school-age children, in the 1980s and 1990s, net out-migration of school-age children appears to have increased in the late 1990s, further reducing enrollments. * Increased international migration into the Portland metropolitan area has ameliorated the decline in enrollments by adding several thousand foreign-born students to the Portland Public Schools. Immigrant couples are contributing an increasing number of births to the population. Births to immigrants partially counterbalance fertility declines among native-born residents. * There is conflicting evidence from public, private, and home schooling data on changes in public school capture rates (the proportion of school age children enrolled in Portland Public Schools). Available data, however, suggest that changes in capture rates have not been a major determinant of public school enrollment trends. Close

• 15. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine County’s total population as a whole has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Grants Pass and Cave Junction posted average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slow growth in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years— bringing population decline in 2012. Since 2012 net in-migration has increased, driving population increase for 2013 and 2014. Total population in Josephine County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs over time population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 16,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 38,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine County’s total population as a whole has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Grants Pass and Cave Junction posted average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slow growth in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years— bringing population decline in 2012. Since 2012 net in-migration has increased, driving population increase for 2013 and 2014. Total population in Josephine County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs over time population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 16,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 38,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 16. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of nearly zero between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more population growth during the 2000s. Lakeside and Bandon, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Coos County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2013. Total population in Coos County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period, and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend already yielding natural decrease (births minus deaths). As natural decrease persists and becomes more pronounced over time, population growth in Coos County is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Coos County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 1,200 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 2,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period. Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s will likely experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population gains throughout the forecast period, although these gains will likely be small. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of nearly zero between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more population growth during the 2000s. Lakeside and Bandon, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Coos County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2013. Total population in Coos County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period, and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend already yielding natural decrease (births minus deaths). As natural decrease persists and becomes more pronounced over time, population growth in Coos County is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Coos County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 1,200 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 2,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period. Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s will likely experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population gains throughout the forecast period, although these gains will likely be small. Close

• 17. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Crook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout the last decade (2000 to 2010), as a result the countywide population growth rate also fluctuated. At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to a decline in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—beginning in 2011. While net inmigration and natural increase contributed to substantial population growth from 2005 to 2008, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—leading to population decline between 2009 and 2012. Total population in Crook County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an expected aging population—a demographic trend which will lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Crook County’s total population is expected to increase by more than 2,700 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Prineville UGB is forecast to show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s— in the initial 20-year forecast period, but is expected to slow down substantially during the last 30 years. The area outside the UGB will likely grow at a steadier rate than Prineville throughout the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Crook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout the last decade (2000 to 2010), as a result the countywide population growth rate also fluctuated. At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to a decline in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—beginning in 2011. While net inmigration and natural increase contributed to substantial population growth from 2005 to 2008, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—leading to population decline between 2009 and 2012. Total population in Crook County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an expected aging population—a demographic trend which will lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Crook County’s total population is expected to increase by more than 2,700 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Prineville UGB is forecast to show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s— in the initial 20-year forecast period, but is expected to slow down substantially during the last 30 years. The area outside the UGB will likely grow at a steadier rate than Prineville throughout the forecast period. Close

• 18. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Curry ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Curry County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Gold Beach posted the highest average annual growth rate at one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Curry County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2012. Total population in Curry County as a whole will likely grow at a faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to exacerbate natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. For the area outside UGBs this will likely lead to population decline during the last 30 years of the forecast period. The remaining sub-areas are expected to see population increase over this same time period. Even so, Curry County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 3,900 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,700 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Curry County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Gold Beach posted the highest average annual growth rate at one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Curry County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2012. Total population in Curry County as a whole will likely grow at a faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to exacerbate natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. For the area outside UGBs this will likely lead to population decline during the last 30 years of the forecast period. The remaining sub-areas are expected to see population increase over this same time period. Even so, Curry County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 3,900 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,700 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 19. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes County’s total population has grown rapidly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of more than three percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); in addition, most of its sub-areas experienced even more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sisters and La Pine posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.8 and 6.3 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Deschutes County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and steady natural increase (i.e., more births than deaths). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2014. While net in-migration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, it is clear that in more recent years (i.e., 2010 to 2014) net inmigration played the most prominent role in population growth. Total population in Deschutes County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Deschutes County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 78,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 186,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes County’s total population has grown rapidly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of more than three percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); in addition, most of its sub-areas experienced even more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sisters and La Pine posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.8 and 6.3 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Deschutes County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and steady natural increase (i.e., more births than deaths). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2014. While net in-migration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, it is clear that in more recent years (i.e., 2010 to 2014) net inmigration played the most prominent role in population growth. Total population in Deschutes County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Deschutes County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 78,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 186,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 20. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Douglas County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Douglas ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Douglas County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Douglas County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sutherlin, the second most populous UGB, and Canyonville posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.7 and 3.0 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Douglas County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population growth nearly to a halt by 2010. In more recent years (2010 to 2014) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population growth Total population in Douglas County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2015 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration Even so, Douglas County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 20,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 43,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Douglas County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Douglas County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sutherlin, the second most populous UGB, and Canyonville posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.7 and 3.0 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Douglas County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population growth nearly to a halt by 2010. In more recent years (2010 to 2014) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population growth Total population in Douglas County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2015 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration Even so, Douglas County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 20,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 43,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 21. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of above one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Eagle Point and Central Point UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net in-migration and natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline to almost nothing by 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—slowing population growth by 2010. Since 2010 net in-migration has driven rising population growth rates, while natural increase continues to shrink. Total population in Jackson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 44,600 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 95,600 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of above one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Eagle Point and Central Point UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net in-migration and natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline to almost nothing by 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—slowing population growth by 2010. Since 2010 net in-migration has driven rising population growth rates, while natural increase continues to shrink. Total population in Jackson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 44,600 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 95,600 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 22. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of just under one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Veneta and Creswell posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.2 and 3.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Lane County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and in the early years, natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2012. Since 2012, net in-migration has outpaced natural increase, driving rising population growth rates. Total population in Lane County as a whole as well as within many of its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines and eventually becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lane County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 67,300 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 152,400 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of just under one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Veneta and Creswell posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.2 and 3.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Lane County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and in the early years, natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2012. Since 2012, net in-migration has outpaced natural increase, driving rising population growth rates. Total population in Lane County as a whole as well as within many of its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines and eventually becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lane County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 67,300 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 152,400 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 23. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Morrow ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Morrow County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Boardman, the most populous UGB, and Irrigon posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.0 and 0.5 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Morrow County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of a substantial natural increase (Figure 12). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase in every year from 2000 to 2014. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population more growth. Total population in Morrow County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a larger base population—the denominator to calculate growth rates. As baby boomers age into the mid-term of the future, natural increase will reach its low point around 2045 and then rebound. Even so, Morrow County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 1,900 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by almost 4,900 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Morrow County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Boardman, the most populous UGB, and Irrigon posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.0 and 0.5 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Morrow County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of a substantial natural increase (Figure 12). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase in every year from 2000 to 2014. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population more growth. Total population in Morrow County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a larger base population—the denominator to calculate growth rates. As baby boomers age into the mid-term of the future, natural increase will reach its low point around 2045 and then rebound. Even so, Morrow County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 1,900 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by almost 4,900 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 24. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Martin, Sheila Year: 2014 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Martin, Sheila Year: 2014 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 25. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 26. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 27. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 28. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32

  This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Close

• 29. [Article] Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon

  Using 1990 U.S. Census data, this report has documented the characteristics of people moving to and from Oregon between 1985 and 1990. Substantial migration occurred during this time with about 404,000 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon Author: Wineberg, Howard, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1995 Using 1990 U.S. Census data, this report has documented the characteristics of people moving to and from Oregon between 1985 and 1990. Substantial migration occurred during this time with about 404,000 people moving to Oregon and about 281,000 people leaving Oregon. Approximately one half of the people moving to Oregon came from California and Washington and about 60% of the people leaving Oregon moved to these two states. Differentials were found in the characteristics of in- and out-migrants. In particular, in-migrants were more likely to be below poverty, 65 years of age and older, and have difficulty speaking English than out-migrants. A greater proportion of out-migrants had a bachelor's degree and income levels were higher for out-migrants than in-migrants. The implications of these findings are discussed. Title: Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon Author: Wineberg, Howard, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1995 Using 1990 U.S. Census data, this report has documented the characteristics of people moving to and from Oregon between 1985 and 1990. Substantial migration occurred during this time with about 404,000 people moving to Oregon and about 281,000 people leaving Oregon. Approximately one half of the people moving to Oregon came from California and Washington and about 60% of the people leaving Oregon moved to these two states. Differentials were found in the characteristics of in- and out-migrants. In particular, in-migrants were more likely to be below poverty, 65 years of age and older, and have difficulty speaking English than out-migrants. A greater proportion of out-migrants had a bachelor's degree and income levels were higher for out-migrants than in-migrants. The implications of these findings are discussed. Close

• 30. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015, Based on October 2004 Enrollments

  The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 6 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2004 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015, Based on October 2004 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Lycan, Richard Year: 2005 The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 6 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2004 PPS enrollment figures. It considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. The forecasts do not take into account local factors such as changing school programs or future school reorganizations that may have a significant effect on an individual school’s enrollment. Forecasts were initially prepared for the District as a whole and for the students residing in the high school clusters and elementary school attendance areas. The students were then assigned to the schools they were predicted to attend. A longer, more detailed report describes the data sources and methods and presents Enrollment Forecasts for each school, by grade. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015, Based on October 2004 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Lycan, Richard Year: 2005 The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 6 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2004 PPS enrollment figures. It considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. The forecasts do not take into account local factors such as changing school programs or future school reorganizations that may have a significant effect on an individual school’s enrollment. Forecasts were initially prepared for the District as a whole and for the students residing in the high school clusters and elementary school attendance areas. The students were then assigned to the schools they were predicted to attend. A longer, more detailed report describes the data sources and methods and presents Enrollment Forecasts for each school, by grade. Close

• 31. [Article] The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2002-2010, Based on October 2002 Enrollments

  This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2002-2010, Based on October 2002 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Lycan, Richard, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2003 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the third annual report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, 2000, and 2001 enrollments; this report relies on October 2002 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes an extrapolation of likely future trends for housing, population, and enrollment changes between the present and 2010. Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2002-2010, Based on October 2002 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Lycan, Richard, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2003 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the third annual report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, 2000, and 2001 enrollments; this report relies on October 2002 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes an extrapolation of likely future trends for housing, population, and enrollment changes between the present and 2010. Close

• 32. [Article] The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2001-2010, Based on October 2001 Enrollments

  This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2001-2010, Based on October 2001 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2002 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the third annual report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. Previous annual reports were based on October 1999 and October 2000 enrollments; this report relies on October 2001 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes an extrapolation of likely future trends for housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2001 to 2010. Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2001-2010, Based on October 2001 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2002 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the third annual report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. Previous annual reports were based on October 1999 and October 2000 enrollments; this report relies on October 2001 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes an extrapolation of likely future trends for housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2001 to 2010. Close

• 33. [Article] Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. The forecasts rely on enrollment trends observed through Fall 2012, local area population, housing, and economic trends, and forecasts of population and housing from other studies for Lane County and the City of Junction City. Title: Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. The forecasts rely on enrollment trends observed through Fall 2012, local area population, housing, and economic trends, and forecasts of population and housing from other studies for Lane County and the City of Junction City. Close

• 34. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range forecast scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range forecast scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 35. [Article] The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2000-2010, Based on October 2000 Enrollments

  This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2000-2010, Based on October 2000 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Lycan, Richard, Proehl, Risa Year: 2000 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the second report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. The first report (dated July 2000) was based on October 1999 enrollments; this report relies on October 2000 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes five different scenarios of housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2000 to 2010. Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2000-2010, Based on October 2000 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Lycan, Richard, Proehl, Risa Year: 2000 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the second report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. The first report (dated July 2000) was based on October 1999 enrollments; this report relies on October 2000 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes five different scenarios of housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2000 to 2010. Close

• 36. [Article] Eugene 4J School District Population and Enrollment Forcasts 2016‐17 to 2025‐26

  The Eugene 4J School District (4J) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for the District and its schools in collaboration with Lane ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Eugene 4J School District Population and Enrollment Forcasts 2016‐17 to 2025‐26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 The Eugene 4J School District (4J) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for the District and its schools in collaboration with Lane Council of Governments (LCOG). This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for 4J for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Eugene 4J School District Population and Enrollment Forcasts 2016‐17 to 2025‐26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 The Eugene 4J School District (4J) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for the District and its schools in collaboration with Lane Council of Governments (LCOG). This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for 4J for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 37. [Article] Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2016-17 to 2025-26

  This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD) for the 10 year period between 2016-17 and 2025-26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD) for the 10 year period between 2016-17 and 2025-26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD) for the 10 year period between 2016-17 and 2025-26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 38. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2017‐18 and 2026‐27. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2017‐18 and 2026‐27. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2017‐18 and 2026‐27. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 39. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates of a little more than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Culver posted the highest average annual growth rate 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jefferson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of steady natural increase— the difference between births and deaths—and substantial net in-migration from 2006 to 2008. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to declining natural increase. While net inmigration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—slowing population growth from 2010 to 2013. Total population in Jefferson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jefferson County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 11,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Madras UGB will likely show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20 year forecast period, but population growth is expected to slow during the last 30 years. Population within the Culver UGB is expected to grow at a much slower rate—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20-year forecast period. Population growth in Culver is also expected to taper throughout the last 30 years of the forecast period. The area outside UGBs is forecast to grow at a steadier, although lower rate than the UGBs throughout the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates of a little more than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Culver posted the highest average annual growth rate 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jefferson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of steady natural increase— the difference between births and deaths—and substantial net in-migration from 2006 to 2008. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to declining natural increase. While net inmigration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—slowing population growth from 2010 to 2013. Total population in Jefferson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jefferson County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 11,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Madras UGB will likely show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20 year forecast period, but population growth is expected to slow during the last 30 years. Population within the Culver UGB is expected to grow at a much slower rate—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20-year forecast period. Population growth in Culver is also expected to taper throughout the last 30 years of the forecast period. The area outside UGBs is forecast to grow at a steadier, although lower rate than the UGBs throughout the forecast period. Close

• 40. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Klamath County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and the local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Klamath ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Klamath County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and the local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Klamath County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000 with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Malin and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.4 and 0.7 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Klamath County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was due to the combination of net inmigration and natural increase (births minus deaths). At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration and natural increase both contributed to population growth from 2000 to 2010, in recent years (i.e., 2011-2014) these two numbers shrank—slowing population growth. Total population in Klamath County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase. As natural increase declines and becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Klamath County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035), but the county as whole is expected to see population decline over the last 30 years of the forecast period. With the exception of the area outside UGBs most sub-areas that saw population growth in the 2000s are forecast to have growth throughout the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population increase throughout the forecast period, but these gains will likely be small. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Klamath County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and the local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Klamath County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000 with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Malin and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.4 and 0.7 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Klamath County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was due to the combination of net inmigration and natural increase (births minus deaths). At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration and natural increase both contributed to population growth from 2000 to 2010, in recent years (i.e., 2011-2014) these two numbers shrank—slowing population growth. Total population in Klamath County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase. As natural increase declines and becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Klamath County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035), but the county as whole is expected to see population decline over the last 30 years of the forecast period. With the exception of the area outside UGBs most sub-areas that saw population growth in the 2000s are forecast to have growth throughout the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population increase throughout the forecast period, but these gains will likely be small. Close

• 41. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Summerville posted the highest average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and Imbler and Union were close behind with average annual growth rates of about 1.2 percent each. Union County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the combined result of a consistent natural increase and a net in-migration. The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, accounting for the majority of Union County’s population increase. Total population in Union County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the nearer-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the longer-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Steady increase in net in-migration is expected to offset the growing natural decrease, leading to relatively steady population growth over the forecast period. However, an aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term stabilization in the number of births. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Summerville posted the highest average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and Imbler and Union were close behind with average annual growth rates of about 1.2 percent each. Union County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the combined result of a consistent natural increase and a net in-migration. The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, accounting for the majority of Union County’s population increase. Total population in Union County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the nearer-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the longer-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Steady increase in net in-migration is expected to offset the growing natural decrease, leading to relatively steady population growth over the forecast period. However, an aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term stabilization in the number of births. Close

• 42. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney County’s total population has slowly declined since 2000, with an average annual rate of negative 0.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). Burns is accountable for the county’s overall declining population. All other sub-areas experienced very slight population growths during the 2000 to 2010 period, increasing by a total of 32 persons. Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of frequent net out-migration. The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, however, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase for 8 out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015 (Figure 12). Even so, net out-migration outweighed these slight natural increases, causing a slow decrease in the Harney County’s population since 2000. Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas are forecast to all decrease at a slightly faster rate in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 500 persons over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066), a loss in population mostly happening in areas outside the UGBs. Sub-areas are expected to generally follow historical patterns of population decrease over the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney County’s total population has slowly declined since 2000, with an average annual rate of negative 0.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). Burns is accountable for the county’s overall declining population. All other sub-areas experienced very slight population growths during the 2000 to 2010 period, increasing by a total of 32 persons. Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of frequent net out-migration. The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, however, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase for 8 out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015 (Figure 12). Even so, net out-migration outweighed these slight natural increases, causing a slow decrease in the Harney County’s population since 2000. Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas are forecast to all decrease at a slightly faster rate in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 500 persons over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066), a loss in population mostly happening in areas outside the UGBs. Sub-areas are expected to generally follow historical patterns of population decrease over the forecast period. Close

• 43. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2006-2015, Based on October 2005 Enrollments

  The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 7 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2005 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2006-2015, Based on October 2005 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Buelow, Vicky, Radin, Kenneth, Hough, George C., Jr., Rynerson, Charles Year: 2006 The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 7 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2005 PPS enrollment figures. It considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2005 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. The forecasts do not take into account local factors such as changing school programs or future school reorganizations that may have a significant effect on an individual school’s enrollment. It does consider PPS Board approved changes in attendance area boundaries and in schools’ grade configuration that were resolved prior to March 31, 2006. Forecasts were initially prepared for the District as a whole and for the students residing in the high school clusters and elementary school attendance areas. The students were then assigned to the schools they were predicted to attend yielding the Enrollment Forecasts for the individual schools in PPS. The school assignment was based on the current pattern of where the students live and the schools that they attend. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2006-2015, Based on October 2005 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Buelow, Vicky, Radin, Kenneth, Hough, George C., Jr., Rynerson, Charles Year: 2006 The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 7 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2005 PPS enrollment figures. It considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2005 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. The forecasts do not take into account local factors such as changing school programs or future school reorganizations that may have a significant effect on an individual school’s enrollment. It does consider PPS Board approved changes in attendance area boundaries and in schools’ grade configuration that were resolved prior to March 31, 2006. Forecasts were initially prepared for the District as a whole and for the students residing in the high school clusters and elementary school attendance areas. The students were then assigned to the schools they were predicted to attend yielding the Enrollment Forecasts for the individual schools in PPS. The school assignment was based on the current pattern of where the students live and the schools that they attend. Close

• 44. [Article] Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District

  This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Ramey, Renee Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public School District (GAPSD). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. For the district-wide forecast, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts were prepared for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which extends similar recent housing and population growth trends throughout the forecast period; (b) lower growth, assuming that population and housing growth rates in the district will noticeably decline thereby influencing a decrease in enrollments; and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average population, housing, and enrollment growth rates than expected. Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Ramey, Renee Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public School District (GAPSD). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. For the district-wide forecast, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts were prepared for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which extends similar recent housing and population growth trends throughout the forecast period; (b) lower growth, assuming that population and housing growth rates in the district will noticeably decline thereby influencing a decrease in enrollments; and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average population, housing, and enrollment growth rates than expected. Close

• 45. [Article] Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Klamath Falls City Schools

  This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Klamath Falls City ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Klamath Falls City Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Buelow, Vicky, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Klamath Falls City Schools (KFCS). The Enrollment Forecasts are developed for each grade for both the district-wide forecast and for the individual schools. KFCS offers education for students in grades kindergarten through 12. However, there is an area within its geographic boundary where not all public school students attend schools in KFCS. This area is referred to as the ‘overlap’ area. Students residing in the overlap area in grades 9-12 attend school in KFCS and those in grades K-8 attend schools in the adjacent Klamath County School District. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2005 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. Special consideration was given to where in the district future population and housing growth may occur. Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Klamath Falls City Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Buelow, Vicky, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Klamath Falls City Schools (KFCS). The Enrollment Forecasts are developed for each grade for both the district-wide forecast and for the individual schools. KFCS offers education for students in grades kindergarten through 12. However, there is an area within its geographic boundary where not all public school students attend schools in KFCS. This area is referred to as the ‘overlap’ area. Students residing in the overlap area in grades 9-12 attend school in KFCS and those in grades K-8 attend schools in the adjacent Klamath County School District. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2005 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. Special consideration was given to where in the district future population and housing growth may occur. Close

• 46. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2004-2015, Based on October 2003 Enrollments

  This is the fourth annual report prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) forecasting future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools (PPS). Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2004-2015, Based on October 2003 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Chen, Chen, Lycan, Richard Year: 2004 This is the fourth annual report prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) forecasting future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools (PPS). Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 enrollments; this report considers October 2003 PPS enrollments. This report provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2003 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This document provides the district-wide Enrollment Forecasts and an explanation of the methods and assumptions used to produce the forecasts. However, the forecasts for individual schools were subsequently revised to better reflect the changes in housing growth in Forest Park ES attendance area (Lincoln HS attendance area), the closing of Columbia Villa (Roosevelt HS attendance area) and the reconstruction of New Columbia. Use the tables in “Addendum to the Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015 and Revised Forecast Tables”, August 2004 for the forecasts by school. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2004-2015, Based on October 2003 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Chen, Chen, Lycan, Richard Year: 2004 This is the fourth annual report prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) forecasting future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools (PPS). Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 enrollments; this report considers October 2003 PPS enrollments. This report provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2003 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This document provides the district-wide Enrollment Forecasts and an explanation of the methods and assumptions used to produce the forecasts. However, the forecasts for individual schools were subsequently revised to better reflect the changes in housing growth in Forest Park ES attendance area (Lincoln HS attendance area), the closing of Columbia Villa (Roosevelt HS attendance area) and the reconstruction of New Columbia. Use the tables in “Addendum to the Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015 and Revised Forecast Tables”, August 2004 for the forecasts by school. Close

• 47. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20

  The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Close

• 48. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14

  This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. CSD enrolled 5,015 students in Fall 2008, 139 fewer students (2.7 percent) than in Fall 2007. A small decrease had been forecast due to a relatively small birth cohort corresponding to the 2008-09 kindergarten class and a slowing housing market, but actual enrollment was even lower. In contrast to last year, there were almost no enrollment gains from new housing, and for the first time in many years the District lost students due to net mobility at the elementary level, that is, more children left the District than entered it. Enrollment losses in previous years were influenced more by age structure and the relative sizes of individual grade cohorts than by mobility. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. CSD enrolled 5,015 students in Fall 2008, 139 fewer students (2.7 percent) than in Fall 2007. A small decrease had been forecast due to a relatively small birth cohort corresponding to the 2008-09 kindergarten class and a slowing housing market, but actual enrollment was even lower. In contrast to last year, there were almost no enrollment gains from new housing, and for the first time in many years the District lost students due to net mobility at the elementary level, that is, more children left the District than entered it. Enrollment losses in previous years were influenced more by age structure and the relative sizes of individual grade cohorts than by mobility. Close

• 49. [Article] Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18

  The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five percent lower than its 1999-00 peak of 2,839. The enrollment decline is largely attributed to the smaller elementary classes of the early 2000s, compared with the peak enrollments of the middle to late 1990s. Middle school enrollment peaked in 2003-04, and high school enrollment peaked in 2005-06. Although secondary school enrollment has been declining in the past few years, elementary enrollment has been relatively stable since 2002-03. The number of incoming kindergarten and 1st grade students has remained steady, and in three of the past four years elementary grade cohorts have grown due to net migration of school-age residents into the District. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the PTSD from 2008-09 to 2017-18. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for modest enrollment growth in the PTSD during the next 10 years. Title: Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five percent lower than its 1999-00 peak of 2,839. The enrollment decline is largely attributed to the smaller elementary classes of the early 2000s, compared with the peak enrollments of the middle to late 1990s. Middle school enrollment peaked in 2003-04, and high school enrollment peaked in 2005-06. Although secondary school enrollment has been declining in the past few years, elementary enrollment has been relatively stable since 2002-03. The number of incoming kindergarten and 1st grade students has remained steady, and in three of the past four years elementary grade cohorts have grown due to net migration of school-age residents into the District. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the PTSD from 2008-09 to 2017-18. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for modest enrollment growth in the PTSD during the next 10 years. Close

• 50. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates, both at about 0.6 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wasco County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a substantial net in-migration and periods of small natural increases and decreases (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been more stable during second half of the decade and the recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wasco County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births)—as well as a decline in net in-migration toward the end of the forecast. Even so, Wasco County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 4,400 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 10,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). The Dalles, Mosier, and the area outside UGBs are expected to grow the most of all of Wasco County’s sub-areas. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates, both at about 0.6 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wasco County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a substantial net in-migration and periods of small natural increases and decreases (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been more stable during second half of the decade and the recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wasco County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births)—as well as a decline in net in-migration toward the end of the forecast. Even so, Wasco County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 4,400 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 10,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). The Dalles, Mosier, and the area outside UGBs are expected to grow the most of all of Wasco County’s sub-areas. Close