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• 1. [Article] Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts

  This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Close

• 2. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26, Based on October 2010 Enrollments

  In Fall 2011, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 46,206 students in grades K-12, an increase of 465 students from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of enrollment growth, following 12 consecutive ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26, Based on October 2010 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 In Fall 2011, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 46,206 students in grades K-12, an increase of 465 students from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of enrollment growth, following 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses that occurred between 1996- 97 and 2008-09. For the three year period since 2008-09, PPS K-12 enrollment has grown by 1,182 students, or 2.6 percent. In seven of the past eight years, actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast has been within 300 students of the medium scenario characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecast in reports similar to this one. However, in all eight of those years actual enrollment was higher than the one year medium scenario forecast. Fall 2011 K- 12 enrollment was 227 students (0.5 percent) higher than the medium scenario forecast but 27 students (0.1 percent) lower than the high scenario forecast prepared in Spring 2011. The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2011, based on historic enrollment data from 2010-11 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after 2011-12 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in 2011-12 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. The 2011-12 enrollment figures in this preface were published by the District on November 18, 2011. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26, Based on October 2010 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 In Fall 2011, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 46,206 students in grades K-12, an increase of 465 students from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of enrollment growth, following 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses that occurred between 1996- 97 and 2008-09. For the three year period since 2008-09, PPS K-12 enrollment has grown by 1,182 students, or 2.6 percent. In seven of the past eight years, actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast has been within 300 students of the medium scenario characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecast in reports similar to this one. However, in all eight of those years actual enrollment was higher than the one year medium scenario forecast. Fall 2011 K- 12 enrollment was 227 students (0.5 percent) higher than the medium scenario forecast but 27 students (0.1 percent) lower than the high scenario forecast prepared in Spring 2011. The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2011, based on historic enrollment data from 2010-11 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after 2011-12 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in 2011-12 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. The 2011-12 enrollment figures in this preface were published by the District on November 18, 2011. Close

• 3. [Article] Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31

  The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Close

• 4. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments

  The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after the Fall 2008 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2008 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. In Fall 2008, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,024 students in grades K-12, only 59 fewer students than in Fall 2007. This small loss (one tenth of one percent) extends the string of enrollment losses to 12 years, but is unlike the much larger losses of the previous 11 years. This year’s K-12 enrollment should be characterized as essentially stable compared with last year’s. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after the Fall 2008 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2008 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. In Fall 2008, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,024 students in grades K-12, only 59 fewer students than in Fall 2007. This small loss (one tenth of one percent) extends the string of enrollment losses to 12 years, but is unlike the much larger losses of the previous 11 years. This year’s K-12 enrollment should be characterized as essentially stable compared with last year’s. Close

• 5. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2008-09 to 2012-13

  The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2008-09 to 2012-13 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing developed within the District. A relatively large incoming kindergarten class also played a role in the growth. This report presents the results of an updated demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. We forecast relatively stable K-12 enrollment totals for the next five years. Based on historic trends in births, migration, and housing construction and our judgment of future trends, we conclude that the average enrollment changes of the next five years are most likely to fall between the large loss that occurred in 2006-07 and the growth that occurred in 2007-08. We are also forecasting relatively stable elementary enrollment, but middle school enrollments are likely to increase and high school enrollments decrease due to the sizes of current classes advancing through secondary schools. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2008-09 to 2012-13 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,154 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 79 students (1.6 percent) from Fall 2006. Most of the increase is directly attributable to families living in new housing developed within the District. A relatively large incoming kindergarten class also played a role in the growth. This report presents the results of an updated demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. We forecast relatively stable K-12 enrollment totals for the next five years. Based on historic trends in births, migration, and housing construction and our judgment of future trends, we conclude that the average enrollment changes of the next five years are most likely to fall between the large loss that occurred in 2006-07 and the growth that occurred in 2007-08. We are also forecasting relatively stable elementary enrollment, but middle school enrollments are likely to increase and high school enrollments decrease due to the sizes of current classes advancing through secondary schools. Close

• 6. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21, Based on October 2008 Enrollments

  The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2009, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2008 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21, Based on October 2008 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan, Lycan, Richard, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2009, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2008 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after preliminary Fall 2009 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2009 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within subareas such as high school clusters. All 2009-10 enrollment figures are preliminary figures as of October 1, tabulated by the District on November 5, 2009. In Fall 2009, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,747 students in grades K-12, an increase of 723 students from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses and represents the District’s biggest growth since 1992. In each of the previous five years, the medium scenarios characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecasts in reports similar to this one were within 300 students of actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast. This year, K-12 enrollment is about 700 students above the medium scenario prepared in Spring 2009. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21, Based on October 2008 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan, Lycan, Richard, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2009, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2008 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after preliminary Fall 2009 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2009 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within subareas such as high school clusters. All 2009-10 enrollment figures are preliminary figures as of October 1, tabulated by the District on November 5, 2009. In Fall 2009, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,747 students in grades K-12, an increase of 723 students from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses and represents the District’s biggest growth since 1992. In each of the previous five years, the medium scenarios characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecasts in reports similar to this one were within 300 students of actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast. This year, K-12 enrollment is about 700 students above the medium scenario prepared in Spring 2009. Close

• 7. [Article] Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. The forecasts rely on enrollment trends observed through Fall 2012, local area population, housing, and economic trends, and forecasts of population and housing from other studies for Lane County and the City of Junction City. Title: Junction City School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report details a range of three scenarios of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts by grade level for the 10 year period between 2013‐14 and 2022‐23. Each Enrollment Forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. The forecasts rely on enrollment trends observed through Fall 2012, local area population, housing, and economic trends, and forecasts of population and housing from other studies for Lane County and the City of Junction City. Close

• 8. [Article] North Clackamas School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2020-21

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2011-12 to 2020-21 school years. The District enrolled 17,368 students in Fall 2010, a decrease of 210 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2009. This was the second consecutive year of decline in enrollment following 22 consecutive years of K-12 enrollment growth between 1986-87 and 2008- 09. This year, for the first time in at least 20 years, total enrollment in schools east of I- 205 did not grow. The Clackamas Feeder System total enrollment was basically unchanged from Fall 2009, with a net loss of 15 students. The Milwaukie and Rex Putnam feeder systems had net enrollment losses of 86 and 72 students respectively. The losses at schools west of I-205 were consistent with long term trends but much smaller than in the previous year, between Fall 2008 and Fall 2009. Title: North Clackamas School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2011-12 to 2020-21 school years. The District enrolled 17,368 students in Fall 2010, a decrease of 210 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2009. This was the second consecutive year of decline in enrollment following 22 consecutive years of K-12 enrollment growth between 1986-87 and 2008- 09. This year, for the first time in at least 20 years, total enrollment in schools east of I- 205 did not grow. The Clackamas Feeder System total enrollment was basically unchanged from Fall 2009, with a net loss of 15 students. The Milwaukie and Rex Putnam feeder systems had net enrollment losses of 86 and 72 students respectively. The losses at schools west of I-205 were consistent with long term trends but much smaller than in the previous year, between Fall 2008 and Fall 2009. Close

• 9. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2015-16 to 2024-25

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2015-16 to 2024-25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 school years. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2015-16 to 2024-25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 school years. Close

• 10. [Article] North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2015 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 school years. Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2015 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 school years. Close

• 11. [Article] Bend–La Pine School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2015-16 to 2034-35

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Bend – La Pine School District (BLPSD). The study includes analyses ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bend–La Pine School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2015-16 to 2034-35 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Bend – La Pine School District (BLPSD). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, and forecasts of district‐wide school enrollments for the 2015‐16 to 2034‐35 school years. Title: Bend–La Pine School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2015-16 to 2034-35 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Bend – La Pine School District (BLPSD). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, and forecasts of district‐wide school enrollments for the 2015‐16 to 2034‐35 school years. Close

• 12. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2016-17 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2016‐17 to 2025‐26 school years. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2016‐17 to 2025‐26 school years. Close

• 13. [Article] Hillsboro School District: District-Wide Enrollment Forecast 2016-17 to 2030-31

  The tables following this brief summary contain results of a demographic study conducted for the Hillsboro School District (HSD) by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). Forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hillsboro School District: District-Wide Enrollment Forecast 2016-17 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2016 The tables following this brief summary contain results of a demographic study conducted for the Hillsboro School District (HSD) by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). Forecasts of district‐wide enrollment annually from 2016‐17 to 2030‐31 under low, middle, and high growth scenarios constitute the core information requested by the District. Additional tables present information compiled in the course of developing forecasts, including recent population, housing and school enrollment trends. Title: Hillsboro School District: District-Wide Enrollment Forecast 2016-17 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2016 The tables following this brief summary contain results of a demographic study conducted for the Hillsboro School District (HSD) by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). Forecasts of district‐wide enrollment annually from 2016‐17 to 2030‐31 under low, middle, and high growth scenarios constitute the core information requested by the District. Additional tables present information compiled in the course of developing forecasts, including recent population, housing and school enrollment trends. Close

• 14. [Article] McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015-16 to 2024-25

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the McMinnville School District (MSD). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015-16 to 2024-25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2015 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the McMinnville School District (MSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide enrollments for a ten year period from 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 and of individual schools for a five year period from 2015‐16 to 2019‐20. Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015-16 to 2024-25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2015 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the McMinnville School District (MSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide enrollments for a ten year period from 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 and of individual schools for a five year period from 2015‐16 to 2019‐20. Close

• 15. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Siu, Vivian, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Siu, Vivian, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. Close

• 16. [Article] North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2017-18 to 2026-27 school years. Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2017-18 to 2026-27 school years. Close

• 17. [Article] David Douglas School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2033-34

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the David Douglas School District (DDSD). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: David Douglas School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2033-34 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Dann, Ryan Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the David Douglas School District (DDSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on DDSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2033‐34 school years. Title: David Douglas School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2033-34 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Dann, Ryan Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the David Douglas School District (DDSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on DDSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2033‐34 school years. Close

• 18. [Article] Medford School District 549: School Enrollment Forecast, 2005 to 2015

  The Population Research Center at Portland State University was asked by Medford School District to prepare an Enrollment Forecast for the 2005-2015 period. The District asked the Center to develop forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Medford School District 549: School Enrollment Forecast, 2005 to 2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Radin, Kenneth, Lycan, Richard Year: 2005 The Population Research Center at Portland State University was asked by Medford School District to prepare an Enrollment Forecast for the 2005-2015 period. The District asked the Center to develop forecasts by grade for the District as a whole, as well as for its elementary, middle, and high schools. This report presents these forecasts, including a discussion of the data and methods used and an overview of population and housing trends and patterns. Title: Medford School District 549: School Enrollment Forecast, 2005 to 2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Radin, Kenneth, Lycan, Richard Year: 2005 The Population Research Center at Portland State University was asked by Medford School District to prepare an Enrollment Forecast for the 2005-2015 period. The District asked the Center to develop forecasts by grade for the District as a whole, as well as for its elementary, middle, and high schools. This report presents these forecasts, including a discussion of the data and methods used and an overview of population and housing trends and patterns. Close

• 19. [Article] Washington County Housing Study for Washington County Department of Housing Services

  This report describes Washington County's demographic and socioeconomic characteristics based on 2000 census data and some administrative data collected from State and local government agencies. It also ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Washington County Housing Study for Washington County Department of Housing Services Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2003 This report describes Washington County's demographic and socioeconomic characteristics based on 2000 census data and some administrative data collected from State and local government agencies. It also presents trends for the County for the 1990 to 2000 period. The aim of this report is to ensure that plans for Washington County can be based on the best possible information. Title: Washington County Housing Study for Washington County Department of Housing Services Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2003 This report describes Washington County's demographic and socioeconomic characteristics based on 2000 census data and some administrative data collected from State and local government agencies. It also presents trends for the County for the 1990 to 2000 period. The aim of this report is to ensure that plans for Washington County can be based on the best possible information. Close

• 20. [Article] Sherwood School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Sherwood School District (SSD). The study includes analysis of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Sherwood School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Sherwood School District (SSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on SSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Title: Sherwood School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Sherwood School District (SSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on SSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Close

• 21. [Article] Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on FGSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. Title: Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, RajBhandary, Bimal, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on FGSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. Close

• 22. [Article] Lake Oswego School District Population and Enrollment Forecast 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Lake Oswego School District Population and Enrollment Forecast 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Siu, Vivian, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on LOSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. Title: Lake Oswego School District Population and Enrollment Forecast 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Siu, Vivian, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on LOSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. Close

• 23. [Article] Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on BSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual elementary school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 school years. Title: Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on BSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual elementary school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 school years. Close

• 24. [Article] Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on Hillsboro School District (HSD) enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 and individual school forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2016‐17. Title: Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on Hillsboro School District (HSD) enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 and individual school forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2016‐17. Close

• 25. [Article] Corvallis School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2020-21

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing, employment, and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Corvallis School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, West, David, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing, employment, and school enrollment trends affecting the Corvallis School District (CSD) in recent years, estimates of the average number of CSD students living in single family homes, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2011‐12 to 2020‐21 school years. Title: Corvallis School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, West, David, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing, employment, and school enrollment trends affecting the Corvallis School District (CSD) in recent years, estimates of the average number of CSD students living in single family homes, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2011‐12 to 2020‐21 school years. Close

• 26. [Article] Eagle Point School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Eagle Point School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Rancik, Kevin Christopher Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Eagle Point School District (EPSD) in recent years, forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level and total enrollment of individual schools for the 2014‐ 15 to 2023‐24 school years. Title: Eagle Point School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Rancik, Kevin Christopher Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Eagle Point School District (EPSD) in recent years, forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level and total enrollment of individual schools for the 2014‐ 15 to 2023‐24 school years. Close

• 27. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Close

• 28. [Article] Hermiston School District Enrolment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hermiston School District Enrolment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Hermiston School District (HSD) in recent years, and forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Title: Hermiston School District Enrolment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Hermiston School District (HSD) in recent years, and forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Close

• 29. [Article] Population Forecasts for Marion County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address long-range planning needs of Marion County and to produce population forecasts at the county and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecasts for Marion County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address long-range planning needs of Marion County and to produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2030 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Marion County are presented in this report for all cities in the County. Title: Population Forecasts for Marion County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010-2030 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address long-range planning needs of Marion County and to produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2030 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Marion County are presented in this report for all cities in the County. Close

• 30. [Article] North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2016‐17 to 2025‐26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2016‐17 to 2025‐26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2016-17 to 2025-26 school years. Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2016‐17 to 2025‐26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2016-17 to 2025-26 school years. Close

• 31. [Article] McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the McMinnville School District (MSD). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the McMinnville School District (MSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide enrollments for a ten year period from 2017‐18 to 2026‐27 and of individual schools for a five year period from 2017‐18 to 2021‐22. Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the McMinnville School District (MSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide enrollments for a ten year period from 2017‐18 to 2026‐27 and of individual schools for a five year period from 2017‐18 to 2021‐22. Close

• 32. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2017-18 to 2026-27

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2017‐18 to 2026‐27 school years. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2017‐18 to 2026‐27 school years. Close

• 33. [Article] Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools

  The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, migration, and international migration have affected public school enrollments in Portland. This report reaches four main conclusions: * First and foremost, public school enrollments have declined in recent years primarily because there have been sizeable decreases in the number of students entering kindergarten and the early elementary school grades. Smaller numbers of entering students are, in turn, the result of substantial reductions in the number of births--reductions that began in 1991. Because there were fewer births in the early 1990s, fewer students enrolled in school in the late 1990s. The number of births declined in the 1980s primarily because there were decreases in the number of younger couples--not because there were decreases in the average number of births per couples in the 1980s. * The number of births has continued to decline in the 1990s. The lower number of births in the second half of the decade has not yet affected school enrollments. But they will add to declines in school enrollments in the future, starting after about 2002. Although there was net out-migration of school-age children, in the 1980s and 1990s, net out-migration of school-age children appears to have increased in the late 1990s, further reducing enrollments. * Increased international migration into the Portland metropolitan area has ameliorated the decline in enrollments by adding several thousand foreign-born students to the Portland Public Schools. Immigrant couples are contributing an increasing number of births to the population. Births to immigrants partially counterbalance fertility declines among native-born residents. * There is conflicting evidence from public, private, and home schooling data on changes in public school capture rates (the proportion of school age children enrolled in Portland Public Schools). Available data, however, suggest that changes in capture rates have not been a major determinant of public school enrollment trends. Title: Changing Times, Changing Enrollments: How Recent Demographic Trends are Affecting Enrollments in Portland Public Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry Year: 2000 The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the demographic factors affecting recent enrollment changes in Portland Public Schools. Toward this goal, the report discusses how trends in births, migration, and international migration have affected public school enrollments in Portland. This report reaches four main conclusions: * First and foremost, public school enrollments have declined in recent years primarily because there have been sizeable decreases in the number of students entering kindergarten and the early elementary school grades. Smaller numbers of entering students are, in turn, the result of substantial reductions in the number of births--reductions that began in 1991. Because there were fewer births in the early 1990s, fewer students enrolled in school in the late 1990s. The number of births declined in the 1980s primarily because there were decreases in the number of younger couples--not because there were decreases in the average number of births per couples in the 1980s. * The number of births has continued to decline in the 1990s. The lower number of births in the second half of the decade has not yet affected school enrollments. But they will add to declines in school enrollments in the future, starting after about 2002. Although there was net out-migration of school-age children, in the 1980s and 1990s, net out-migration of school-age children appears to have increased in the late 1990s, further reducing enrollments. * Increased international migration into the Portland metropolitan area has ameliorated the decline in enrollments by adding several thousand foreign-born students to the Portland Public Schools. Immigrant couples are contributing an increasing number of births to the population. Births to immigrants partially counterbalance fertility declines among native-born residents. * There is conflicting evidence from public, private, and home schooling data on changes in public school capture rates (the proportion of school age children enrolled in Portland Public Schools). Available data, however, suggest that changes in capture rates have not been a major determinant of public school enrollment trends. Close

• 34. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation

  This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long term District wide forecast was developed using patterns of migration, fertility and mortality that are most likely to occur between school years 2006 and 2015. In addition to the most likely scenario, or the medium growth forecast, two other scenarios--for higher and lower growth trends--were derived. Forecasts by grade for individual schoolsand school attendance areas were also prepared; these forecasts relied on the District wide medium growth scenario. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long term District wide forecast was developed using patterns of migration, fertility and mortality that are most likely to occur between school years 2006 and 2015. In addition to the most likely scenario, or the medium growth forecast, two other scenarios--for higher and lower growth trends--were derived. Forecasts by grade for individual schoolsand school attendance areas were also prepared; these forecasts relied on the District wide medium growth scenario. Close

• 35. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2025-26

  The North Santiam School District (NSSD) covers about 100 square miles of Marion and Linn Counties in Western Oregon, and includes the communities of Lyons, Mehama, Stayton, and Sublimity. The area served ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2006 The North Santiam School District (NSSD) covers about 100 square miles of Marion and Linn Counties in Western Oregon, and includes the communities of Lyons, Mehama, Stayton, and Sublimity. The area served by the District has experienced sustained growth in population, housing, and public school enrollment in recent years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that NSSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next twenty years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2006 The North Santiam School District (NSSD) covers about 100 square miles of Marion and Linn Counties in Western Oregon, and includes the communities of Lyons, Mehama, Stayton, and Sublimity. The area served by the District has experienced sustained growth in population, housing, and public school enrollment in recent years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that NSSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next twenty years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Close

• 36. [Article] Scappoose School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2020-21

  The Scappoose School District (SSD) in northwestern Oregon serves the City of Scappoose and the southeastern portion of Columbia County, as well as the extreme northwestern portion of Multnomah County ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Scappoose School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Scappoose School District (SSD) in northwestern Oregon serves the City of Scappoose and the southeastern portion of Columbia County, as well as the extreme northwestern portion of Multnomah County and a small piece of Washington County. The area served by the District has experienced population growth in recent years, but overall school enrollment losses in two of the past five years have negated the gains in the other three years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that SSD enrollment will increase during the next fifteen years, with relatively slow growth in the first five years and faster growth during the 2010 to 2020 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. In the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Title: Scappoose School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Scappoose School District (SSD) in northwestern Oregon serves the City of Scappoose and the southeastern portion of Columbia County, as well as the extreme northwestern portion of Multnomah County and a small piece of Washington County. The area served by the District has experienced population growth in recent years, but overall school enrollment losses in two of the past five years have negated the gains in the other three years. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that SSD enrollment will increase during the next fifteen years, with relatively slow growth in the first five years and faster growth during the 2010 to 2020 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. Population and housing are closely related to access to jobs. In the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to increase at all grade levels. Close

• 37. [Article] The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2002-2010, Based on October 2002 Enrollments

  This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2002-2010, Based on October 2002 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Lycan, Richard, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2003 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the third annual report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, 2000, and 2001 enrollments; this report relies on October 2002 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes an extrapolation of likely future trends for housing, population, and enrollment changes between the present and 2010. Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2002-2010, Based on October 2002 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Lycan, Richard, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2003 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the third annual report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, 2000, and 2001 enrollments; this report relies on October 2002 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes an extrapolation of likely future trends for housing, population, and enrollment changes between the present and 2010. Close

• 38. [Article] The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2001-2010, Based on October 2001 Enrollments

  This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2001-2010, Based on October 2001 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2002 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the third annual report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. Previous annual reports were based on October 1999 and October 2000 enrollments; this report relies on October 2001 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes an extrapolation of likely future trends for housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2001 to 2010. Title: The Path Ahead: Future Enrollments in Portland Public Schools, 2001-2010, Based on October 2001 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2002 This report provides a school Enrollment Forecast, including demographic information, for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the present and 2010, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This is the third annual report that forecasts future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools. Previous annual reports were based on October 1999 and October 2000 enrollments; this report relies on October 2001 enrollments. To take into account a variety of demographic and enrollment possibilities, this report describes an extrapolation of likely future trends for housing, population, and enrollment changes for the ten years between 2001 to 2010. Close

• 39. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2014-15 to 2028-29, Based on October 2013 Enrollments

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2014-15 to 2028-29, Based on October 2013 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the number of PPS students by housing type, and annual forecasts of enrollment for a 15 year horizon, from 2014‐15 to 2028‐29. Enrollment Forecasts were prepared under high, medium, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for attendance areas by place of residence and for individual schools are consistent with the medium district‐wide forecast. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2014-15 to 2028-29, Based on October 2013 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the number of PPS students by housing type, and annual forecasts of enrollment for a 15 year horizon, from 2014‐15 to 2028‐29. Enrollment Forecasts were prepared under high, medium, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for attendance areas by place of residence and for individual schools are consistent with the medium district‐wide forecast. Close

• 40. [Article] Population Forecast for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008-2035

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Lane County and produce population forecasts at the county and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecast for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008-2035 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Hough, George C., Jr., Ru, Danan, Radin, Kenneth, Gilbert, Mark Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Lane County and produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2008 to 2035 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Lane County are presented in this report. Title: Population Forecast for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008-2035 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Hough, George C., Jr., Ru, Danan, Radin, Kenneth, Gilbert, Mark Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Lane County and produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2008 to 2035 in 5-year intervals. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Lane County are presented in this report. Close

• 41. [Article] North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The District enrolled 17,280 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 68 students (‐0.4 percent) from Fall 2010. Following the recent economic recession, which began in late 2008, enrollment has declined for NCSD in each of the last three consecutive years. This period of decline in the number of students stands in stark contrast to the preceding 22 consecutive years of K‐12 enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09. Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The District enrolled 17,280 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 68 students (‐0.4 percent) from Fall 2010. Following the recent economic recession, which began in late 2008, enrollment has declined for NCSD in each of the last three consecutive years. This period of decline in the number of students stands in stark contrast to the preceding 22 consecutive years of K‐12 enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09. Close

• 42. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2020-21

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, low, middle, and high range forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2011‐12 to 2020‐21 school years and middle range forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2011‐12 to 2015‐16 school years. The District’s K‐12 enrollment of 7,751 in 2010‐11 was nearly unchanged from 2009‐10, having declined by just 13 students (0.2 percent). In each of the six years between 2004‐05 and 2010‐ 11, enrollment either declined or was stable, and the 2010‐11 OCSD total was 245 students (3.1 percent) below its 2004‐05 peak enrollment of 7,996 students. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, low, middle, and high range forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2011‐12 to 2020‐21 school years and middle range forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2011‐12 to 2015‐16 school years. The District’s K‐12 enrollment of 7,751 in 2010‐11 was nearly unchanged from 2009‐10, having declined by just 13 students (0.2 percent). In each of the six years between 2004‐05 and 2010‐ 11, enrollment either declined or was stable, and the 2010‐11 OCSD total was 245 students (3.1 percent) below its 2004‐05 peak enrollment of 7,996 students. Close

• 43. [Article] Longview Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23, 2027-28, and 2023-33

  The Longview Public Schools (LPS) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current study ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Longview Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23, 2027-28, and 2023-33 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Siu, Vivian, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 The Longview Public Schools (LPS) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current study integrates information about LPS, providing a snapshot of demographic, housing, and school enrollment patterns and trends. This report also presents an extended district‐wide enrollment forecasts for each of the ten year period from 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 and for five year increments beyond the first decade for 2027‐28 and 2032‐33. Title: Longview Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23, 2027-28, and 2023-33 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Siu, Vivian, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 The Longview Public Schools (LPS) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current study integrates information about LPS, providing a snapshot of demographic, housing, and school enrollment patterns and trends. This report also presents an extended district‐wide enrollment forecasts for each of the ten year period from 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 and for five year increments beyond the first decade for 2027‐28 and 2032‐33. Close

• 44. [Article] North Clackamas School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2014-15

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2014-15 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2014-15 school years. The District enrolled 17,578 students in Fall 2009, a decrease of 150 students (0.8 percent) from Fall 2008. This was the first decline following 22 consecutive years of K- 12 enrollment growth. Enrollments continued to grow at schools east of I-205 in the Clackamas High School feeder system, where two new elementary schools opened to ease overcrowding, but it was not enough to offset continued losses in the Milwaukie and Rex Putnam feeder systems. Title: North Clackamas School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2014-15 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2014-15 school years. The District enrolled 17,578 students in Fall 2009, a decrease of 150 students (0.8 percent) from Fall 2008. This was the first decline following 22 consecutive years of K- 12 enrollment growth. Enrollments continued to grow at schools east of I-205 in the Clackamas High School feeder system, where two new elementary schools opened to ease overcrowding, but it was not enough to offset continued losses in the Milwaukie and Rex Putnam feeder systems. Close

• 45. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2010-11 to 2019-20

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, low, middle, and high range forecasts of district-wide enrollment by grade level for the 2010-11 to 2019-20 school years and middle range forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2014-15 school years. The District’s K-12 enrollment of 7,764 in 2009-10 was 232 students (2.9 percent) below its 2004-05 peak enrollment of 7,796 students. The 2008-09 to 2009-10 loss of 114 students (1.4 percent) was the District’s biggest K-12 enrollment decline in more than 20 years. Despite the overall loss, kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments experienced a third consecutive year of small enrollment increases. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, low, middle, and high range forecasts of district-wide enrollment by grade level for the 2010-11 to 2019-20 school years and middle range forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2014-15 school years. The District’s K-12 enrollment of 7,764 in 2009-10 was 232 students (2.9 percent) below its 2004-05 peak enrollment of 7,796 students. The 2008-09 to 2009-10 loss of 114 students (1.4 percent) was the District’s biggest K-12 enrollment decline in more than 20 years. Despite the overall loss, kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments experienced a third consecutive year of small enrollment increases. Close

• 46. [Article] Sherwood School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2010-11 to 2014-15

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Sherwood School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2010-11 to 2014-15 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Robertson, Megan Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Sherwood School District (SSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2014-15 school years. Total K-12 enrollment in the District increased by 215 students (4.7 percent) between Fall 2008 and Fall 2009, reaching 4,748 students. For the fourth consecutive year, percentage gains were greater at both of the secondary levels than at the elementary level, as the students who contributed to rapid elementary growth in the late 1990s and early 2000s made their way into middle and high school grades. Title: Sherwood School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2010-11 to 2014-15 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Robertson, Megan Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Sherwood School District (SSD) in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2014-15 school years. Total K-12 enrollment in the District increased by 215 students (4.7 percent) between Fall 2008 and Fall 2009, reaching 4,748 students. For the fourth consecutive year, percentage gains were greater at both of the secondary levels than at the elementary level, as the students who contributed to rapid elementary growth in the late 1990s and early 2000s made their way into middle and high school grades. Close

• 47. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2011-12 to 2020-21

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, West, David, Siu, Vivian Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of districtwide and individual school enrollments for the 2011-12 to 2020-21 school years. The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,393 students in Fall 2010, a decrease of 74 students (0.6 percent) from Fall 2009. The loss occurred at both the elementary and middle school levels, with decreases of 41 students (0.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 123 students (4.2 percent) in grades 6-8. Conversely, district-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 increased by 90 students (2.3 percent). Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, West, David, Siu, Vivian Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of districtwide and individual school enrollments for the 2011-12 to 2020-21 school years. The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,393 students in Fall 2010, a decrease of 74 students (0.6 percent) from Fall 2009. The loss occurred at both the elementary and middle school levels, with decreases of 41 students (0.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 123 students (4.2 percent) in grades 6-8. Conversely, district-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 increased by 90 students (2.3 percent). Close

• 48. [Article] Estacada School District: Enrollment Forecast 2009-10 to 2013-14

  This report presents the results of a demographic study for the Estacada School District (ESD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Estacada School District: Enrollment Forecast 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study for the Estacada School District (ESD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. The current forecasts included in this study indicate that the District will continue to lose enrollment over the next five years, but at a slower rate than in the past. Total K-12 enrollment is forecast to decline next year by 24 students (1.1 percent). Small declines ranging from 11 to 37 students are also forecasted for each of the following four years. Overall, for the five year forecast period, K-12 enrollment is 117 students (5.5 percent) lower in 2013-14 than in 2008-09. Title: Estacada School District: Enrollment Forecast 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study for the Estacada School District (ESD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. The current forecasts included in this study indicate that the District will continue to lose enrollment over the next five years, but at a slower rate than in the past. Total K-12 enrollment is forecast to decline next year by 24 students (1.1 percent). Small declines ranging from 11 to 37 students are also forecasted for each of the following four years. Overall, for the five year forecast period, K-12 enrollment is 117 students (5.5 percent) lower in 2013-14 than in 2008-09. Close

• 49. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2013-14

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. The Oregon City School District (OCSD) enrolled 7,635 students in Fall 2008, a decrease of 77 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2007. This was the fourth consecutive year of declining K-12 enrollment, following seven years of enrollment gains. In spite of the overall loss, more students were enrolled in District’s kindergarten and 1st grade classes in Fall 2008 than in Fall 2007. While total elementary (K-6) and middle school (7-8) enrollments declined, high school enrollment was essentially unchanged from Fall 2007 to Fall 2008. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. The Oregon City School District (OCSD) enrolled 7,635 students in Fall 2008, a decrease of 77 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2007. This was the fourth consecutive year of declining K-12 enrollment, following seven years of enrollment gains. In spite of the overall loss, more students were enrolled in District’s kindergarten and 1st grade classes in Fall 2008 than in Fall 2007. While total elementary (K-6) and middle school (7-8) enrollments declined, high school enrollment was essentially unchanged from Fall 2007 to Fall 2008. Close

• 50. [Article] McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23

  The McMinnville School District (MSD) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan, Siu, Vivian Year: 2013 The McMinnville School District (MSD) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current study integrates information about MSD and updates the work PRC conducted in 2008 and 2011, providing a snapshot of demographic, housing, and school enrollment patterns and trends. This report also presents an extended district‐wide enrollment forecasts for a ten year period from 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 and individual school forecasts for a five year period from 2013‐14 to 2017‐18. Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan, Siu, Vivian Year: 2013 The McMinnville School District (MSD) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for use in the District’s long‐range planning. The current study integrates information about MSD and updates the work PRC conducted in 2008 and 2011, providing a snapshot of demographic, housing, and school enrollment patterns and trends. This report also presents an extended district‐wide enrollment forecasts for a ten year period from 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 and individual school forecasts for a five year period from 2013‐14 to 2017‐18. Close

• 51. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2019-20

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of districtwide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2019-20 school years. The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,467 students in Fall 2009, a decrease of 128 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2008. The loss occurred at both the elementary and high school levels, with decreases of 88 students (1.5 percent) in grades K-5 and 71 students (1.8 percent) in grades 9-12. District-wide enrollment in middle school grades 6-8 increased by 31 students (1.1 percent). Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of districtwide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2019-20 school years. The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,467 students in Fall 2009, a decrease of 128 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2008. The loss occurred at both the elementary and high school levels, with decreases of 88 students (1.5 percent) in grades K-5 and 71 students (1.8 percent) in grades 9-12. District-wide enrollment in middle school grades 6-8 increased by 31 students (1.1 percent). Close

• 52. [Article] Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2025-26

  This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for BSD enrollment during the next 17 years based ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for BSD enrollment during the next 17 years based on different assumptions about future net migration and fertility rates. The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide enrollments by grade level for the 2009-10 to 2025-26 school years. Title: Beaverton School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for BSD enrollment during the next 17 years based on different assumptions about future net migration and fertility rates. The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide enrollments by grade level for the 2009-10 to 2025-26 school years. Close

• 53. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecasts 2007-08 to 2011-12

  The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,075 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 171 students (3.3 percent) from Fall 2005. Much of the K-12 decrease was due to a relatively small kindergarten class ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecasts 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,075 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 171 students (3.3 percent) from Fall 2005. Much of the K-12 decrease was due to a relatively small kindergarten class entering and a record large 12th grade class graduating. Also, unlike most previous years, the District did not have a net gain of students due to migration of families with children. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecasts 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Canby School District (CSD) enrolled 5,075 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 171 students (3.3 percent) from Fall 2005. Much of the K-12 decrease was due to a relatively small kindergarten class entering and a record large 12th grade class graduating. Also, unlike most previous years, the District did not have a net gain of students due to migration of families with children. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. Close

• 54. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2011-12

  The Oregon City School District (OCSD) enrolled 7,764 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 189 students (2.4 percent) from Fall 2005. Much of the K-12 decrease was due to a relatively small kindergarten ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Oregon City School District (OCSD) enrolled 7,764 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 189 students (2.4 percent) from Fall 2005. Much of the K-12 decrease was due to a relatively small kindergarten class entering and a large 12th grade class graduating. Also, the figures do not include enrollment at the District’s two charter schools, both of which opened in Fall 2006 and enrolled some students who were previously enrolled in districtrun schools. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Oregon City School District (OCSD) enrolled 7,764 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 189 students (2.4 percent) from Fall 2005. Much of the K-12 decrease was due to a relatively small kindergarten class entering and a large 12th grade class graduating. Also, the figures do not include enrollment at the District’s two charter schools, both of which opened in Fall 2006 and enrolled some students who were previously enrolled in districtrun schools. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. Close

• 55. [Article] Population Forecast for Yamhill County Oregon, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2011-2035

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Yamhill County and produce population forecasts at the county and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecast for Yamhill County Oregon, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2011-2035 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Siu, Vivian, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Yamhill County and produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2035 in 5-year intervals and for years 2012 and 2032. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Yamhill County are presented in this report. Sub-county populations and forecasts in this study represent the area within each city's urban growth boundary with the exception of the non-UGB county unincorporated area and the Polk County portion of Willamina. Title: Population Forecast for Yamhill County Oregon, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2011-2035 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Siu, Vivian, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of Yamhill County and produce population forecasts at the county and sub-county level. This report considers recent and historical demographic changes experienced within the County and provides forecasts from 2010 to 2035 in 5-year intervals and for years 2012 and 2032. Expected future populations that result from the most-likely demographic trends throughout Yamhill County are presented in this report. Sub-county populations and forecasts in this study represent the area within each city's urban growth boundary with the exception of the non-UGB county unincorporated area and the Polk County portion of Willamina. Close

• 56. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2016-17 to 2030-31: Based on October 2015 Enrollments

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2016-17 to 2030-31: Based on October 2015 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the number of PPS students by housing type, and annual forecasts of enrollment for a 15 year horizon, from 2016‐17 to 2030‐31. Enrollment forecasts were prepared under high, medium, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for attendance areas by place of residence and for individual schools are consistent with the medium district‐wide forecast. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2016-17 to 2030-31: Based on October 2015 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the number of PPS students by housing type, and annual forecasts of enrollment for a 15 year horizon, from 2016‐17 to 2030‐31. Enrollment forecasts were prepared under high, medium, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for attendance areas by place of residence and for individual schools are consistent with the medium district‐wide forecast. Close

• 57. [Article] Reynolds School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2015-16 to 2024-25

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Reynolds School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2015-16 to 2024-25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Reynolds School District (RSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 school years. Title: Reynolds School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2015-16 to 2024-25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Reynolds School District (RSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 school years. Close

• 58. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine County’s total population as a whole has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Grants Pass and Cave Junction posted average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slow growth in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years— bringing population decline in 2012. Since 2012 net in-migration has increased, driving population increase for 2013 and 2014. Total population in Josephine County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs over time population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 16,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 38,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Josephine County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Josephine County’s total population as a whole has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Grants Pass and Cave Junction posted average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Josephine County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slow growth in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years— bringing population decline in 2012. Since 2012 net in-migration has increased, driving population increase for 2013 and 2014. Total population in Josephine County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs over time population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Josephine County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 16,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 38,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 59. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of nearly zero between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more population growth during the 2000s. Lakeside and Bandon, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Coos County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2013. Total population in Coos County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period, and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend already yielding natural decrease (births minus deaths). As natural decrease persists and becomes more pronounced over time, population growth in Coos County is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Coos County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 1,200 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 2,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period. Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s will likely experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population gains throughout the forecast period, although these gains will likely be small. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Coos County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Coos County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of nearly zero between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more population growth during the 2000s. Lakeside and Bandon, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 and 0.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Coos County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2013. Total population in Coos County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period, and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend already yielding natural decrease (births minus deaths). As natural decrease persists and becomes more pronounced over time, population growth in Coos County is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Coos County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 1,200 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 2,500 over the entire 50 year forecast period. Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s will likely experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population gains throughout the forecast period, although these gains will likely be small. Close

• 60. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Crook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout the last decade (2000 to 2010), as a result the countywide population growth rate also fluctuated. At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to a decline in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—beginning in 2011. While net inmigration and natural increase contributed to substantial population growth from 2005 to 2008, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—leading to population decline between 2009 and 2012. Total population in Crook County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an expected aging population—a demographic trend which will lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Crook County’s total population is expected to increase by more than 2,700 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Prineville UGB is forecast to show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s— in the initial 20-year forecast period, but is expected to slow down substantially during the last 30 years. The area outside the UGB will likely grow at a steadier rate than Prineville throughout the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the Prineville UGB and the area outside the UGB collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Crook County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout the last decade (2000 to 2010), as a result the countywide population growth rate also fluctuated. At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to a decline in the number of births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to natural decrease—more deaths than births—beginning in 2011. While net inmigration and natural increase contributed to substantial population growth from 2005 to 2008, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—leading to population decline between 2009 and 2012. Total population in Crook County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an expected aging population—a demographic trend which will lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Crook County’s total population is expected to increase by more than 2,700 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Prineville UGB is forecast to show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s— in the initial 20-year forecast period, but is expected to slow down substantially during the last 30 years. The area outside the UGB will likely grow at a steadier rate than Prineville throughout the forecast period. Close

• 61. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Curry ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Curry County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Gold Beach posted the highest average annual growth rate at one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Curry County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2012. Total population in Curry County as a whole will likely grow at a faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to exacerbate natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. For the area outside UGBs this will likely lead to population decline during the last 30 years of the forecast period. The remaining sub-areas are expected to see population increase over this same time period. Even so, Curry County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 3,900 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,700 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Curry County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Curry County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Gold Beach posted the highest average annual growth rate at one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Curry County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of sporadic net in-migration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While periods of net in-migration outweighed natural decrease during the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population decline from 2009 to 2012. Total population in Curry County as a whole will likely grow at a faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to exacerbate natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. For the area outside UGBs this will likely lead to population decline during the last 30 years of the forecast period. The remaining sub-areas are expected to see population increase over this same time period. Even so, Curry County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 3,900 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 4,700 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 62. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes County’s total population has grown rapidly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of more than three percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); in addition, most of its sub-areas experienced even more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sisters and La Pine posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.8 and 6.3 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Deschutes County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and steady natural increase (i.e., more births than deaths). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2014. While net in-migration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, it is clear that in more recent years (i.e., 2010 to 2014) net inmigration played the most prominent role in population growth. Total population in Deschutes County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Deschutes County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 78,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 186,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Deschutes County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Deschutes County’s total population has grown rapidly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of more than three percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); in addition, most of its sub-areas experienced even more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sisters and La Pine posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.8 and 6.3 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Deschutes County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and steady natural increase (i.e., more births than deaths). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2014. While net in-migration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, it is clear that in more recent years (i.e., 2010 to 2014) net inmigration played the most prominent role in population growth. Total population in Deschutes County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Deschutes County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 78,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 186,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 63. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Douglas County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Douglas ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Douglas County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Douglas County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sutherlin, the second most populous UGB, and Canyonville posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.7 and 3.0 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Douglas County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population growth nearly to a halt by 2010. In more recent years (2010 to 2014) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population growth Total population in Douglas County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2015 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration Even so, Douglas County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 20,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 43,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Douglas County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Douglas County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Sutherlin, the second most populous UGB, and Canyonville posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.7 and 3.0 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Douglas County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—bringing population growth nearly to a halt by 2010. In more recent years (2010 to 2014) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population growth Total population in Douglas County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2015 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration Even so, Douglas County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 20,000 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by more than 43,000 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Subareas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 64. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of above one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Eagle Point and Central Point UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net in-migration and natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline to almost nothing by 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—slowing population growth by 2010. Since 2010 net in-migration has driven rising population growth rates, while natural increase continues to shrink. Total population in Jackson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 44,600 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 95,600 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of above one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Eagle Point and Central Point UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net in-migration and natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline to almost nothing by 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—slowing population growth by 2010. Since 2010 net in-migration has driven rising population growth rates, while natural increase continues to shrink. Total population in Jackson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 44,600 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 95,600 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 65. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates of a little more than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Culver posted the highest average annual growth rate 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jefferson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of steady natural increase— the difference between births and deaths—and substantial net in-migration from 2006 to 2008. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to declining natural increase. While net inmigration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—slowing population growth from 2010 to 2013. Total population in Jefferson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jefferson County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 11,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Madras UGB will likely show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20 year forecast period, but population growth is expected to slow during the last 30 years. Population within the Culver UGB is expected to grow at a much slower rate—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20-year forecast period. Population growth in Culver is also expected to taper throughout the last 30 years of the forecast period. The area outside UGBs is forecast to grow at a steadier, although lower rate than the UGBs throughout the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates of a little more than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Culver posted the highest average annual growth rate 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jefferson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of steady natural increase— the difference between births and deaths—and substantial net in-migration from 2006 to 2008. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to declining natural increase. While net inmigration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—slowing population growth from 2010 to 2013. Total population in Jefferson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jefferson County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 11,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Madras UGB will likely show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20 year forecast period, but population growth is expected to slow during the last 30 years. Population within the Culver UGB is expected to grow at a much slower rate—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20-year forecast period. Population growth in Culver is also expected to taper throughout the last 30 years of the forecast period. The area outside UGBs is forecast to grow at a steadier, although lower rate than the UGBs throughout the forecast period. Close

• 66. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Klamath County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and the local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Klamath ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Klamath County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and the local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Klamath County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000 with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Malin and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.4 and 0.7 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Klamath County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was due to the combination of net inmigration and natural increase (births minus deaths). At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration and natural increase both contributed to population growth from 2000 to 2010, in recent years (i.e., 2011-2014) these two numbers shrank—slowing population growth. Total population in Klamath County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase. As natural increase declines and becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Klamath County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035), but the county as whole is expected to see population decline over the last 30 years of the forecast period. With the exception of the area outside UGBs most sub-areas that saw population growth in the 2000s are forecast to have growth throughout the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population increase throughout the forecast period, but these gains will likely be small. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Klamath County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and the local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Klamath County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000 with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Malin and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.4 and 0.7 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Klamath County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was due to the combination of net inmigration and natural increase (births minus deaths). At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration and natural increase both contributed to population growth from 2000 to 2010, in recent years (i.e., 2011-2014) these two numbers shrank—slowing population growth. Total population in Klamath County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase. As natural increase declines and becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Klamath County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035), but the county as whole is expected to see population decline over the last 30 years of the forecast period. With the exception of the area outside UGBs most sub-areas that saw population growth in the 2000s are forecast to have growth throughout the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population increase throughout the forecast period, but these gains will likely be small. Close

• 67. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of just under one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Veneta and Creswell posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.2 and 3.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Lane County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and in the early years, natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2012. Since 2012, net in-migration has outpaced natural increase, driving rising population growth rates. Total population in Lane County as a whole as well as within many of its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines and eventually becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lane County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 67,300 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 152,400 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of just under one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Veneta and Creswell posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.2 and 3.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Lane County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and in the early years, natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2012. Since 2012, net in-migration has outpaced natural increase, driving rising population growth rates. Total population in Lane County as a whole as well as within many of its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines and eventually becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lane County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 67,300 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 152,400 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 68. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler County’s total population has declined slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of just above negative one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced some population growth during the 2000s. Fossil, the most populous UGB, experienced small growth and Spray posted the highest average annual growth rate at 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wheeler County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of an aging population. The aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages, has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration and natural decrease compounded to create a substantial population decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, migration into the county increased in the later part of the decade and helped to offset the natural decrease. Net out-migration was still substantial for populations between the ages of 20 and 29 years from 2000 to 2010, but there has been net in-migration for a slightly older population from 30 to 39 years of age. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it some slight population growth. Total population in Wheeler County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slightly slower pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The declining of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a steady natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Wheeler County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 90 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by more than 300 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience similar rates of population decline during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Wheeler County’s total population has declined slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of just above negative one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced some population growth during the 2000s. Fossil, the most populous UGB, experienced small growth and Spray posted the highest average annual growth rate at 0.1 and 1.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wheeler County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of an aging population. The aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages, has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration and natural decrease compounded to create a substantial population decrease during the early and middle years of the last decade, migration into the county increased in the later part of the decade and helped to offset the natural decrease. Net out-migration was still substantial for populations between the ages of 20 and 29 years from 2000 to 2010, but there has been net in-migration for a slightly older population from 30 to 39 years of age. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it some slight population growth. Total population in Wheeler County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slightly slower pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The declining of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a steady natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Wheeler County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 90 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by more than 300 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience similar rates of population decline during the forecast period. Close

• 69. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney County’s total population has slowly declined since 2000, with an average annual rate of negative 0.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). Burns is accountable for the county’s overall declining population. All other sub-areas experienced very slight population growths during the 2000 to 2010 period, increasing by a total of 32 persons. Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of frequent net out-migration. The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, however, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase for 8 out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015 (Figure 12). Even so, net out-migration outweighed these slight natural increases, causing a slow decrease in the Harney County’s population since 2000. Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas are forecast to all decrease at a slightly faster rate in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 500 persons over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066), a loss in population mostly happening in areas outside the UGBs. Sub-areas are expected to generally follow historical patterns of population decrease over the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney County’s total population has slowly declined since 2000, with an average annual rate of negative 0.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). Burns is accountable for the county’s overall declining population. All other sub-areas experienced very slight population growths during the 2000 to 2010 period, increasing by a total of 32 persons. Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of frequent net out-migration. The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, however, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase for 8 out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015 (Figure 12). Even so, net out-migration outweighed these slight natural increases, causing a slow decrease in the Harney County’s population since 2000. Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas are forecast to all decrease at a slightly faster rate in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 500 persons over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066), a loss in population mostly happening in areas outside the UGBs. Sub-areas are expected to generally follow historical patterns of population decrease over the forecast period. Close

• 70. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District 10J: Enrollment Forecasts for Elementary and Middle Schools and School Attendance Areas, 2006 to 2015

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District (“District”). It provides annual ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J: Enrollment Forecasts for Elementary and Middle Schools and School Attendance Areas, 2006 to 2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Radin, Kenneth Year: 2006 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District (“District”). It provides annual enrollment projections by grade for the District's eleven elementary and five middle school attendance areas from 2006 to 2015. It also provides annual enrollment projections by grade for elementary and middle schools. The projections correspond to the medium growth District-wide scenario developed by PRC in the 2004 study. The report begins with an overview of recent population and housing trends in the District's elementary and middle school attendance areas as they relate to changes in school enrollment. Next, results of annual enrollment projections for the District's eleven elementary and five middle school attendance areas from 2006 to 2015 are presented. The following section introduces annual enrollment projections for elementary and middle schools. A section discussing the methodology and assumptions used to develop the projections follows. Finally, conclusions are drawn and recommendations are offered, followed by a list of references used in the study. Detailed tables and figures showing projected grade-level enrollment by school attendance area and by school, along with other relevant information, are provided in the Appendix. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J: Enrollment Forecasts for Elementary and Middle Schools and School Attendance Areas, 2006 to 2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Radin, Kenneth Year: 2006 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District (“District”). It provides annual enrollment projections by grade for the District's eleven elementary and five middle school attendance areas from 2006 to 2015. It also provides annual enrollment projections by grade for elementary and middle schools. The projections correspond to the medium growth District-wide scenario developed by PRC in the 2004 study. The report begins with an overview of recent population and housing trends in the District's elementary and middle school attendance areas as they relate to changes in school enrollment. Next, results of annual enrollment projections for the District's eleven elementary and five middle school attendance areas from 2006 to 2015 are presented. The following section introduces annual enrollment projections for elementary and middle schools. A section discussing the methodology and assumptions used to develop the projections follows. Finally, conclusions are drawn and recommendations are offered, followed by a list of references used in the study. Detailed tables and figures showing projected grade-level enrollment by school attendance area and by school, along with other relevant information, are provided in the Appendix. Close

• 71. [Article] Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2015-16

  The Hillsboro School District (HSD) has experienced enrollment growth throughout the 1990s and 2000s. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2015-16 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Hillsboro School District (HSD) has experienced enrollment growth throughout the 1990s and 2000s. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that HSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next ten years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with population dynamics and housing development. Population and housing are closely related to employment levels. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to continue to increase at all grade levels. Washington County currently has the lowest unemployment rate in the state, and employment in the region is forecast to grow by over 16 percent in a ten year period. The county’s population is forecast to grow by 22 percent. Most significantly for the area within the HSD boundaries, there are about 3,500 housing units in new single family subdivisions and multi-family housing developments currently under construction, recently approved, or awaiting approval.4 This development has the potential to increase the District’s housing stock by eight percent within the next three years. Title: Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2006-07 to 2015-16 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Hillsboro School District (HSD) has experienced enrollment growth throughout the 1990s and 2000s. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that HSD enrollment will continue to grow during the next ten years. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with population dynamics and housing development. Population and housing are closely related to employment levels. By itself, the District’s past growth is no guarantee of future long-term growth, but in the context of expected employment, population, and housing growth, enrollment is likely to continue to increase at all grade levels. Washington County currently has the lowest unemployment rate in the state, and employment in the region is forecast to grow by over 16 percent in a ten year period. The county’s population is forecast to grow by 22 percent. Most significantly for the area within the HSD boundaries, there are about 3,500 housing units in new single family subdivisions and multi-family housing developments currently under construction, recently approved, or awaiting approval.4 This development has the potential to increase the District’s housing stock by eight percent within the next three years. Close

• 72. [Article] Three Rivers School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17

  The area served by the Three Rivers School District (TRSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment in 2006-07 is 17 percent lower than its ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Three Rivers School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The area served by the Three Rivers School District (TRSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment in 2006-07 is 17 percent lower than its 1995-96 peak. Total K-12 enrollment has fallen in each of the past 11 years and is now lower than in any of the past 30 years. Losses have been greatest in the elementary grades (K-5), which enroll 27 percent fewer students than in 1996-97. The middle grades (6-8) have lost 20 percent in enrollment during the same period, while the high school grades (9-12) have lost only three percent. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that overall TRSD enrollment will continue to decrease during the next five years, until 2011-12, mostly due to the current smaller elementary and middle school classes moving up to the high school level. Although elementary enrollment is expected to “bottom out” within the next two to four years and begin to grow slightly, the offsetting effect of smaller high school enrollment means that overall K-12 enrollment will be stable at best during the 2011-12 to 2016-17 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. As employment, population, and housing growth in the region continues, the enrollment declines should slow, and overall enrollment will stabilize within the 5,000 to 5,100 student range over a period of several years, according to this forecast. Title: Three Rivers School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2016-17 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The area served by the Three Rivers School District (TRSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment in 2006-07 is 17 percent lower than its 1995-96 peak. Total K-12 enrollment has fallen in each of the past 11 years and is now lower than in any of the past 30 years. Losses have been greatest in the elementary grades (K-5), which enroll 27 percent fewer students than in 1996-97. The middle grades (6-8) have lost 20 percent in enrollment during the same period, while the high school grades (9-12) have lost only three percent. This report presents the results of a forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) indicating that overall TRSD enrollment will continue to decrease during the next five years, until 2011-12, mostly due to the current smaller elementary and middle school classes moving up to the high school level. Although elementary enrollment is expected to “bottom out” within the next two to four years and begin to grow slightly, the offsetting effect of smaller high school enrollment means that overall K-12 enrollment will be stable at best during the 2011-12 to 2016-17 period. PRC’s methodology links enrollment trends with the area’s population dynamics. As employment, population, and housing growth in the region continues, the enrollment declines should slow, and overall enrollment will stabilize within the 5,000 to 5,100 student range over a period of several years, according to this forecast. Close

• 73. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2007-08 to 2011-12

  The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,300 students in Fall 2006, an increase of 167 students (1.4 percent) from Fall 2005. Growth was concentrated in the elementary grades (K-5), which ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,300 students in Fall 2006, an increase of 167 students (1.4 percent) from Fall 2005. Growth was concentrated in the elementary grades (K-5), which grew by 195 students (3.6 percent) between Fall 2005 and Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Recent subdivision approvals will allow single family home construction to continue at its current pace for the next two to three years, but no new multiple family rental developments have been approved in the past two years. In some parts of the District, a dwindling supply of available residential land has already caused housing growth to slow, but growth in other areas has the potential to generate enrollment growth throughout the next five years. Also, the growing Hispanic population in the District compensates for the graduation of the "echo boom" enrollment bulge currently enrolled in high school grades. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2006 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,300 students in Fall 2006, an increase of 167 students (1.4 percent) from Fall 2005. Growth was concentrated in the elementary grades (K-5), which grew by 195 students (3.6 percent) between Fall 2005 and Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Recent subdivision approvals will allow single family home construction to continue at its current pace for the next two to three years, but no new multiple family rental developments have been approved in the past two years. In some parts of the District, a dwindling supply of available residential land has already caused housing growth to slow, but growth in other areas has the potential to generate enrollment growth throughout the next five years. Also, the growing Hispanic population in the District compensates for the graduation of the "echo boom" enrollment bulge currently enrolled in high school grades. Close

• 74. [Article] Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District

  This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Ramey, Renee Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public School District (GAPSD). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. For the district-wide forecast, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts were prepared for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which extends similar recent housing and population growth trends throughout the forecast period; (b) lower growth, assuming that population and housing growth rates in the district will noticeably decline thereby influencing a decrease in enrollments; and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average population, housing, and enrollment growth rates than expected. Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Ramey, Renee Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public School District (GAPSD). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. For the district-wide forecast, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts were prepared for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which extends similar recent housing and population growth trends throughout the forecast period; (b) lower growth, assuming that population and housing growth rates in the district will noticeably decline thereby influencing a decrease in enrollments; and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average population, housing, and enrollment growth rates than expected. Close

• 75. [Article] Enrollment Forecast (2004-2010) for Lake Oswego School District

  This report, prepared by the Population Research Center provides a medium-range school Enrollment Forecast, including background demographic information and analysis, for Lake Oswego School District (LOSD) ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast (2004-2010) for Lake Oswego School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Chen, Chen Year: 2004 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center provides a medium-range school Enrollment Forecast, including background demographic information and analysis, for Lake Oswego School District (LOSD) and for its nine elementary schools, two junior high schools, and two high schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the District’s enrollment between 2004 and 2010 and examines elementary attendance areas within the District. The most likely scenario indicates that there will be a slight decrease in enrollments between 2003 and 2010. For the district-wide forecasting, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts are made for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which curbs recent trends of declining housing and population growth rates, (b) lower growth, assuming that growth rates in the district will continue to decrease, and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average growth rates closer to those of the mid 1990s. Title: Enrollment Forecast (2004-2010) for Lake Oswego School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Chen, Chen Year: 2004 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center provides a medium-range school Enrollment Forecast, including background demographic information and analysis, for Lake Oswego School District (LOSD) and for its nine elementary schools, two junior high schools, and two high schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the District’s enrollment between 2004 and 2010 and examines elementary attendance areas within the District. The most likely scenario indicates that there will be a slight decrease in enrollments between 2003 and 2010. For the district-wide forecasting, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts are made for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which curbs recent trends of declining housing and population growth rates, (b) lower growth, assuming that growth rates in the district will continue to decrease, and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average growth rates closer to those of the mid 1990s. Close

• 76. [Article] Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School 2005-2015

  This report provides a 2005-2015 school Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School by grade level, and includes background demographic information and analysis for Horizon Christian School’s market ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School 2005-2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2000 This report provides a 2005-2015 school Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School by grade level, and includes background demographic information and analysis for Horizon Christian School’s market area. The market area for this study consists of Northern Wasco County and Hood River County School Districts in Oregon, and White Salmon School District in Washington. Horizon Christian School, offering grades pre-kindergarten through 12, is located in the city of Hood River and its classrooms are located in rented spaces at three different sites throughout the city. Plans to construct a new facility to house Horizon on one campus have been made. The factors that are likely to affect Horizon’s enrollments are considered in this report, including the occurrence of demographic events and the construction of a new school facility. Three different scenarios of enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic changes and the effects a new school facility will have on enrollments. Each of the three Enrollment Forecasts uses one of the following assumptions: (a) current demographic and enrollment trends will continue throughout the forecast period; (b) a new school facility will be constructed and operational beginning in the 2006-07 school year, and (c) a new school facility will be operational beginning in the 2006-07 school year and population growth in Horizon’s market area will increase during the forecast period. Title: Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School 2005-2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2000 This report provides a 2005-2015 school Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School by grade level, and includes background demographic information and analysis for Horizon Christian School’s market area. The market area for this study consists of Northern Wasco County and Hood River County School Districts in Oregon, and White Salmon School District in Washington. Horizon Christian School, offering grades pre-kindergarten through 12, is located in the city of Hood River and its classrooms are located in rented spaces at three different sites throughout the city. Plans to construct a new facility to house Horizon on one campus have been made. The factors that are likely to affect Horizon’s enrollments are considered in this report, including the occurrence of demographic events and the construction of a new school facility. Three different scenarios of enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic changes and the effects a new school facility will have on enrollments. Each of the three Enrollment Forecasts uses one of the following assumptions: (a) current demographic and enrollment trends will continue throughout the forecast period; (b) a new school facility will be constructed and operational beginning in the 2006-07 school year, and (c) a new school facility will be operational beginning in the 2006-07 school year and population growth in Horizon’s market area will increase during the forecast period. Close

• 77. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2010-11 to 2020-21, Based on October 2009 Enrollments

  The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,592 K-12 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 568 students (1.3 percent) from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2010-11 to 2020-21, Based on October 2009 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2010 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,592 K-12 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 568 students (1.3 percent) from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses and represents the District’s biggest growth since 1992. Growth was concentrated at the elementary level (K-5th grade), which added 577 students (2.6 percent). District-wide secondary levels experienced relatively stable enrollments, with a loss of 55 students (0.6 percent) in middle school grades (6th-8th), and growth of 46 students (0.4 percent) in high school grades (9th-12th). The medium growth scenario forecast prepared last year, based on October 2008 enrollments, predicted a very small K-12 increase of 22 students and an elementary enrollment increase of 347 students, significantly less growth than actually occurred. Actual enrollment growth exceeded the high growth scenario forecast of 382 K-12 students and 476 elementary students. Medium growth scenario forecasts prepared over the previous five years, between Spring 2004 and 2008, consistently predicted that district-wide K-12 enrollment would stabilize and increase beginning in 2012-13. However, the growth appears to be occurring sooner and at a faster rate than forecast. Higher October 2009 base year enrollment and increasingly robust enrollment trends observed in the last few years have resulted in the higher forecasts presented in this report. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2010-11 to 2020-21, Based on October 2009 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2010 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,592 K-12 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 568 students (1.3 percent) from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses and represents the District’s biggest growth since 1992. Growth was concentrated at the elementary level (K-5th grade), which added 577 students (2.6 percent). District-wide secondary levels experienced relatively stable enrollments, with a loss of 55 students (0.6 percent) in middle school grades (6th-8th), and growth of 46 students (0.4 percent) in high school grades (9th-12th). The medium growth scenario forecast prepared last year, based on October 2008 enrollments, predicted a very small K-12 increase of 22 students and an elementary enrollment increase of 347 students, significantly less growth than actually occurred. Actual enrollment growth exceeded the high growth scenario forecast of 382 K-12 students and 476 elementary students. Medium growth scenario forecasts prepared over the previous five years, between Spring 2004 and 2008, consistently predicted that district-wide K-12 enrollment would stabilize and increase beginning in 2012-13. However, the growth appears to be occurring sooner and at a faster rate than forecast. Higher October 2009 base year enrollment and increasingly robust enrollment trends observed in the last few years have resulted in the higher forecasts presented in this report. Close

• 78. [Article] Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecasts 2007-08 to 2011-12

  The Forest Grove School District (FGSD) enrolled 6,102 students in Fall 2006, an increase of 175 students (3.0 percent) from Fall 2005. Growth was concentrated in the high school grades (9-12), which grew ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecasts 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2007 The Forest Grove School District (FGSD) enrolled 6,102 students in Fall 2006, an increase of 175 students (3.0 percent) from Fall 2005. Growth was concentrated in the high school grades (9-12), which grew by 101 students (5.5 percent), and elementary grades, which gained 66 students (2.9 percent) between Fall 2005 and Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on FGSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall FGSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children and increases in the number of births within the District. Recent subdivision approvals will allow single family home construction to continue at its current pace for the entire five year period if market conditions remain favorable, but the mix of homes may shift somewhat to accommodate more older “move up” buyers and fewer young families. No new multiple family rental developments have been approved in the past two years; the few attached units being built are market rate townhouses and condos. Title: Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecasts 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2007 The Forest Grove School District (FGSD) enrolled 6,102 students in Fall 2006, an increase of 175 students (3.0 percent) from Fall 2005. Growth was concentrated in the high school grades (9-12), which grew by 101 students (5.5 percent), and elementary grades, which gained 66 students (2.9 percent) between Fall 2005 and Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on FGSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2007-08 to 2011-12 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall FGSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children and increases in the number of births within the District. Recent subdivision approvals will allow single family home construction to continue at its current pace for the entire five year period if market conditions remain favorable, but the mix of homes may shift somewhat to accommodate more older “move up” buyers and fewer young families. No new multiple family rental developments have been approved in the past two years; the few attached units being built are market rate townhouses and condos. Close

• 79. [Article] Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040

  The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Vaidya, Kanhaiya, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2011 The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce long-term population forecasts for each of the two sewer service districts. In addition, CCSD#1 requested that forecasts also be developed to include the entire city of Damascus to account for possible future annexation into its district; and the city of Milwaukie, as CCSD#1 leases services to Milwaukie. The forecast horizon extends 30 years from 2010 to 2040, and projections are produced in 5-year intervals. For the 2010-2015 interval, forecast numbers for single years are included. Forecasts for three growth scenarios – high, medium, and low scenarios – are developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. We consider the medium growth forecast to be the most-likely scenario. We also include in this report an analysis of recent demographic trends that have bearing on our assumptions for future growth in study areas. Title: Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Vaidya, Kanhaiya, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2011 The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce long-term population forecasts for each of the two sewer service districts. In addition, CCSD#1 requested that forecasts also be developed to include the entire city of Damascus to account for possible future annexation into its district; and the city of Milwaukie, as CCSD#1 leases services to Milwaukie. The forecast horizon extends 30 years from 2010 to 2040, and projections are produced in 5-year intervals. For the 2010-2015 interval, forecast numbers for single years are included. Forecasts for three growth scenarios – high, medium, and low scenarios – are developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. We consider the medium growth forecast to be the most-likely scenario. We also include in this report an analysis of recent demographic trends that have bearing on our assumptions for future growth in study areas. Close

• 80. [Article] North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. After 22 consecutive years of enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09, total K‐12 enrollment in the North Clackamas School District has fallen for four consecutive years. The largest decline occurred between Fall 2011 and Fall 2012 as District enrollment, now 17,044, fell by 236 students. Over the four year period between 2008‐09 and 2012‐13, elementary (K‐5th) grades had a net loss of about six percent while middle (6th‐8th) grades lost about two percent and high school (9th‐12th) grades lost about three percent. Title: North Clackamas School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin, Siu, Vivian Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the North Clackamas School District (NCSD) in recent years and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. After 22 consecutive years of enrollment growth between 1986‐87 and 2008‐09, total K‐12 enrollment in the North Clackamas School District has fallen for four consecutive years. The largest decline occurred between Fall 2011 and Fall 2012 as District enrollment, now 17,044, fell by 236 students. Over the four year period between 2008‐09 and 2012‐13, elementary (K‐5th) grades had a net loss of about six percent while middle (6th‐8th) grades lost about two percent and high school (9th‐12th) grades lost about three percent. Close

• 81. [Article] Ashland School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Ashland School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Ashland School District (ASD) in recent years, "baseline" forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years and "baseline" forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The forecasts are characterized as baseline because they do not include additional residents of other districts who may enroll in ASD schools as a result of the new open enrollment policy. Fall 2011 K‐12 enrollment in all ASD schools was 2,720, 17 students (0.6 percent) less than in Fall 2010. District‐wide enrollment is now 844 students (23.7 percent) less than the peak 18 years ago, in the 1993‐94 school year. Enrollment losses of more than 100 students each year occurred in 2004‐05 and 2005‐06. Since 2005‐06 the District has experienced relatively stable or slightly increasing K‐12 enrollment in three years, and decreasing enrollment the other three years, with a net K‐12 enrollment loss of 195 students (6.7 percent) over the six year period. Title: Ashland School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Ashland School District (ASD) in recent years, "baseline" forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years and "baseline" forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The forecasts are characterized as baseline because they do not include additional residents of other districts who may enroll in ASD schools as a result of the new open enrollment policy. Fall 2011 K‐12 enrollment in all ASD schools was 2,720, 17 students (0.6 percent) less than in Fall 2010. District‐wide enrollment is now 844 students (23.7 percent) less than the peak 18 years ago, in the 1993‐94 school year. Enrollment losses of more than 100 students each year occurred in 2004‐05 and 2005‐06. Since 2005‐06 the District has experienced relatively stable or slightly increasing K‐12 enrollment in three years, and decreasing enrollment the other three years, with a net K‐12 enrollment loss of 195 students (6.7 percent) over the six year period. Close

• 82. [Article] Oregon Trail School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon Trail School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, low, middle, and high range forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years and middle range forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. Fall 2011 enrollment in all OTSD schools was 4,089. In the twelve years since 1999‐2000, total K‐ 12 enrollment in the Oregon Trail School District has been relatively stable, never exceeding 4,220 students or falling below 4,036 students. The enrollment increase from Fall 2010 was small (48 students, or 1.2 percent) but it ranks as the largest numeric and percentage enrollment increase in the District’s 14 year history. However, the growth did not make up for the small enrollment declines each of the five years between 2004‐05 and 2009‐10, and K‐12 enrollment remains 131 students (3.1 percent) below its 2004‐05 level of 4,220 students. Title: Oregon Trail School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, RajBhandary, Bimal, Siu, Vivian Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, low, middle, and high range forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years and middle range forecasts of individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. Fall 2011 enrollment in all OTSD schools was 4,089. In the twelve years since 1999‐2000, total K‐ 12 enrollment in the Oregon Trail School District has been relatively stable, never exceeding 4,220 students or falling below 4,036 students. The enrollment increase from Fall 2010 was small (48 students, or 1.2 percent) but it ranks as the largest numeric and percentage enrollment increase in the District’s 14 year history. However, the growth did not make up for the small enrollment declines each of the five years between 2004‐05 and 2009‐10, and K‐12 enrollment remains 131 students (3.1 percent) below its 2004‐05 level of 4,220 students. Close

• 83. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26, Based on October 2011 Enrollments

  The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 46,206 K‐12 students in Fall 2011, an increase of 465 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2010. This was the third consecutive year of K‐12 growth, a reversal ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26, Based on October 2011 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan, Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2012 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 46,206 K‐12 students in Fall 2011, an increase of 465 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2010. This was the third consecutive year of K‐12 growth, a reversal from the 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses between 1997 and 2008. For the three year period since 2008‐09, the District has grown by 1,182 K‐12 students (2.6 percent). This report includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, forecasts of district‐wide enrollment, and Enrollment Forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school of attendance for the 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 school years. For the district‐wide forecast, three scenarios of population and enrollment changes were developed: a most‐likely, or medium, growth scenario; a scenario for lower growth; and a higher growth scenario. All three of the growth scenarios for the PPS district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts use similar mortality, fertility, and capture rates during the 14 year horizon. The differences between the three scenarios are primarily due to different assumptions about the levels of net migration (the net movement into and out of the District) among families with children. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26, Based on October 2011 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan, Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2012 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 46,206 K‐12 students in Fall 2011, an increase of 465 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2010. This was the third consecutive year of K‐12 growth, a reversal from the 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses between 1997 and 2008. For the three year period since 2008‐09, the District has grown by 1,182 K‐12 students (2.6 percent). This report includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, forecasts of district‐wide enrollment, and Enrollment Forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school of attendance for the 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 school years. For the district‐wide forecast, three scenarios of population and enrollment changes were developed: a most‐likely, or medium, growth scenario; a scenario for lower growth; and a higher growth scenario. All three of the growth scenarios for the PPS district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts use similar mortality, fertility, and capture rates during the 14 year horizon. The differences between the three scenarios are primarily due to different assumptions about the levels of net migration (the net movement into and out of the District) among families with children. Close

• 84. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,341 students in Fall 2012, a decrease of 25 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2011. This is the fourth consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the declines of the most recent two years have been small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 36 students (0.6 percent) in 2012‐13, and 238 students (4.1 percent) for the four year period since their enrollment peak in 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) in District schools gained enrollment in 2012‐13, and are just 59 students (2.0 percent) below their 2009‐10 peak. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 has been virtually unchanged since 2010‐11 and remains near its peak. In contrast to the K‐5th grade enrollment decline, Fall 2012 kindergarten enrollment of 939 in TTSD schools was the largest ever, 62 students larger than in Fall 2011. However, the kindergarten growth is not likely to be sustained, as births to District residents peaked in 2006‐07, the birth cohort that entered kindergarten in Fall 2012. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,341 students in Fall 2012, a decrease of 25 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2011. This is the fourth consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the declines of the most recent two years have been small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 36 students (0.6 percent) in 2012‐13, and 238 students (4.1 percent) for the four year period since their enrollment peak in 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) in District schools gained enrollment in 2012‐13, and are just 59 students (2.0 percent) below their 2009‐10 peak. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 has been virtually unchanged since 2010‐11 and remains near its peak. In contrast to the K‐5th grade enrollment decline, Fall 2012 kindergarten enrollment of 939 in TTSD schools was the largest ever, 62 students larger than in Fall 2011. However, the kindergarten growth is not likely to be sustained, as births to District residents peaked in 2006‐07, the birth cohort that entered kindergarten in Fall 2012. Close

• 85. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,366 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 27 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the change was small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 73 students (1.3 percent) in 2011‐12, and 202 students (3.5 percent) for the three year period since 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) gained 51 students (1.8 percent) in 2011‐12, mostly due to a larger sixth grade replacing a smaller eighth grade. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 was essentially stable, decreasing by just five students (0.1 percent). Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,366 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 27 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the change was small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 73 students (1.3 percent) in 2011‐12, and 202 students (3.5 percent) for the three year period since 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) gained 51 students (1.8 percent) in 2011‐12, mostly due to a larger sixth grade replacing a smaller eighth grade. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 was essentially stable, decreasing by just five students (0.1 percent). Close

• 86. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20

  The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Close

• 87. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14

  This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. CSD enrolled 5,015 students in Fall 2008, 139 fewer students (2.7 percent) than in Fall 2007. A small decrease had been forecast due to a relatively small birth cohort corresponding to the 2008-09 kindergarten class and a slowing housing market, but actual enrollment was even lower. In contrast to last year, there were almost no enrollment gains from new housing, and for the first time in many years the District lost students due to net mobility at the elementary level, that is, more children left the District than entered it. Enrollment losses in previous years were influenced more by age structure and the relative sizes of individual grade cohorts than by mobility. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. CSD enrolled 5,015 students in Fall 2008, 139 fewer students (2.7 percent) than in Fall 2007. A small decrease had been forecast due to a relatively small birth cohort corresponding to the 2008-09 kindergarten class and a slowing housing market, but actual enrollment was even lower. In contrast to last year, there were almost no enrollment gains from new housing, and for the first time in many years the District lost students due to net mobility at the elementary level, that is, more children left the District than entered it. Enrollment losses in previous years were influenced more by age structure and the relative sizes of individual grade cohorts than by mobility. Close

• 88. [Article] Molalla River School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21

  This report presents the results of a demographic study for the Molalla River School District (MRSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Molalla River School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study for the Molalla River School District (MRSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide grade level enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2020-21 school years. Three possible scenarios for MRSD enrollment correspond to three different population forecasts, which depend on unique assumptions about net migration. Other factors including fertility rates, shares of District residents enrolled in public schools, and enrollment impacts of charter schools do not vary between scenarios; they are held constant. In spite of rapid population and housing growth in the City of Molalla since the 1990s, total enrollment in the MRSD has only fluctuated by a few hundred students since the District’s 1993 consolidation. K-12 enrollment of 2,877 in Fall 2008 was about the same as in Fall 2000, though there are now fewer students in grades K-8 and more in grades 9- 12. Title: Molalla River School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study for the Molalla River School District (MRSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide grade level enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2020-21 school years. Three possible scenarios for MRSD enrollment correspond to three different population forecasts, which depend on unique assumptions about net migration. Other factors including fertility rates, shares of District residents enrolled in public schools, and enrollment impacts of charter schools do not vary between scenarios; they are held constant. In spite of rapid population and housing growth in the City of Molalla since the 1990s, total enrollment in the MRSD has only fluctuated by a few hundred students since the District’s 1993 consolidation. K-12 enrollment of 2,877 in Fall 2008 was about the same as in Fall 2000, though there are now fewer students in grades K-8 and more in grades 9- 12. Close

• 89. [Article] Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although the forecasts for the next three to four years are for stable or slightly declining K-12 enrollments. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a “HIGH SCENARIO” forecast that is consistent with the population forecast recently adopted in the City of Banks Comprehensive Plan, and a “LOW SCENARIO” forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels. This study also presents estimates of the number of students per housing unit within the District. We found that student generation is higher in homes within the City of Banks than those in unincorporated Washington County. More significantly, BSD student generation rates are higher in newer homes (Arbor Village and Banks Estates in the City and homes built since 2000 in the unincorporated area) than in older homes. Detailed information about the average number of BSD students per home is presented in the “Housing Development and Student Generation” section of this report. Title: Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although the forecasts for the next three to four years are for stable or slightly declining K-12 enrollments. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a “HIGH SCENARIO” forecast that is consistent with the population forecast recently adopted in the City of Banks Comprehensive Plan, and a “LOW SCENARIO” forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels. This study also presents estimates of the number of students per housing unit within the District. We found that student generation is higher in homes within the City of Banks than those in unincorporated Washington County. More significantly, BSD student generation rates are higher in newer homes (Arbor Village and Banks Estates in the City and homes built since 2000 in the unincorporated area) than in older homes. Detailed information about the average number of BSD students per home is presented in the “Housing Development and Student Generation” section of this report. Close

• 90. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2018-19

  The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,595 students in Fall 2008, an increase of 135 students (1.1 percent) from Fall 2007. Growth was concentrated in elementary and middle grades, with ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2018-19 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan Year: 2008 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,595 students in Fall 2008, an increase of 135 students (1.1 percent) from Fall 2007. Growth was concentrated in elementary and middle grades, with increases of 99 students (1.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 36 students (1.3 percent) in grades 6-8. District-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 was unchanged from Fall 2007. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2018-19 school years. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 20 of the past 21 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2009-10 to 2018-19 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan Year: 2008 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,595 students in Fall 2008, an increase of 135 students (1.1 percent) from Fall 2007. Growth was concentrated in elementary and middle grades, with increases of 99 students (1.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 36 students (1.3 percent) in grades 6-8. District-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 was unchanged from Fall 2007. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2018-19 school years. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 20 of the past 21 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Close

• 91. [Article] Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18

  The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell by 143 students, or 15 percent. This year’s enrollment of 822 represents an increase of 20 students (2.5 percent) from Fall 2006, the largest increase since 1994. The long period of decline initially had its greatest impact on elementary grades, followed by middle school and more recently high school. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the Amity District should not expect enrollment declines to continue in the long run, although about three more years of small losses are forecast at the high school level. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a "baseline" forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels, and a "high range" forecast that anticipates higher migration levels, primarily due to an increase in housing development. Title: Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell by 143 students, or 15 percent. This year’s enrollment of 822 represents an increase of 20 students (2.5 percent) from Fall 2006, the largest increase since 1994. The long period of decline initially had its greatest impact on elementary grades, followed by middle school and more recently high school. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the Amity District should not expect enrollment declines to continue in the long run, although about three more years of small losses are forecast at the high school level. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a "baseline" forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels, and a "high range" forecast that anticipates higher migration levels, primarily due to an increase in housing development. Close

• 92. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments

  The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Close

• 93. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12

  The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases of 59 students (2.1 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 93 students (2.4 percent) in high school grades 9-12. Elementary grades K-5 enrolled only one more student in Fall 2007 compared with Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Single family housing development in 2007 has been slower than in recent years, as homebuilders have adjusted to the slower housing market that has affected the Portland metropolitan region. But construction and sales are continuing in several subdivisions in the District, at least two large multi-family developments are planned, and redevelopment and infill is also adding to the District’s housing stock. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2008-09 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,460 students in Fall 2007, an increase of 153 students (1.2 percent) from Fall 2006. Growth was concentrated in the secondary grades, with increases of 59 students (2.1 percent) in middle school grades 6-8, and 93 students (2.4 percent) in high school grades 9-12. Elementary grades K-5 enrolled only one more student in Fall 2007 compared with Fall 2006. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2008-09 to 2012-13 school years. The forecasts indicate that overall TTSD enrollment will continue to increase during the next five years, due largely to net in-migration of families with children. Single family housing development in 2007 has been slower than in recent years, as homebuilders have adjusted to the slower housing market that has affected the Portland metropolitan region. But construction and sales are continuing in several subdivisions in the District, at least two large multi-family developments are planned, and redevelopment and infill is also adding to the District’s housing stock. Close

• 94. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates, both at about 0.6 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wasco County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a substantial net in-migration and periods of small natural increases and decreases (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been more stable during second half of the decade and the recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wasco County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births)—as well as a decline in net in-migration toward the end of the forecast. Even so, Wasco County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 4,400 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 10,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). The Dalles, Mosier, and the area outside UGBs are expected to grow the most of all of Wasco County’s sub-areas. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates, both at about 0.6 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wasco County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a substantial net in-migration and periods of small natural increases and decreases (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been more stable during second half of the decade and the recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wasco County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births)—as well as a decline in net in-migration toward the end of the forecast. Even so, Wasco County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 4,400 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 10,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). The Dalles, Mosier, and the area outside UGBs are expected to grow the most of all of Wasco County’s sub-areas. Close

• 95. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Baker County’s population declined between 2000 and 2010, losing on average of just over 60 people per year (Figure 1); however in recent years this pattern has changed and population increase has occurred. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Baker County’s population declined between 2000 and 2010, losing on average of just over 60 people per year (Figure 1); however in recent years this pattern has changed and population increase has occurred. Between 2010 and 2015 the county added on average about 20 persons per year (Figure 2). Baker County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of natural decrease and periods of substantial net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years (2010-2015), contributing to population increase. Total population in Baker County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the three sub-areas of Baker City, Richland, and Sumpter (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the last 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of growing natural decrease, which is expected to surpass net in-migration between 2030 and 2035. Overall the county is forecast to see nearly no net change in population over the entire 50-year period, beginning the forecast at around 16,400 in 2016 and ending at about 16,400 in 2066. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Baker County’s population declined between 2000 and 2010, losing on average of just over 60 people per year (Figure 1); however in recent years this pattern has changed and population increase has occurred. Between 2010 and 2015 the county added on average about 20 persons per year (Figure 2). Baker County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of natural decrease and periods of substantial net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years (2010-2015), contributing to population increase. Total population in Baker County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the three sub-areas of Baker City, Richland, and Sumpter (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the last 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of growing natural decrease, which is expected to surpass net in-migration between 2030 and 2035. Overall the county is forecast to see nearly no net change in population over the entire 50-year period, beginning the forecast at around 16,400 in 2016 and ending at about 16,400 in 2066. Close

• 96. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Summerville posted the highest average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and Imbler and Union were close behind with average annual growth rates of about 1.2 percent each. Union County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the combined result of a consistent natural increase and a net in-migration. The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, accounting for the majority of Union County’s population increase. Total population in Union County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the nearer-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the longer-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Steady increase in net in-migration is expected to offset the growing natural decrease, leading to relatively steady population growth over the forecast period. However, an aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term stabilization in the number of births. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Summerville posted the highest average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and Imbler and Union were close behind with average annual growth rates of about 1.2 percent each. Union County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the combined result of a consistent natural increase and a net in-migration. The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, accounting for the majority of Union County’s population increase. Total population in Union County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the nearer-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the longer-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Steady increase in net in-migration is expected to offset the growing natural decrease, leading to relatively steady population growth over the forecast period. However, an aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term stabilization in the number of births. Close

• 97. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Umatilla County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Umatilla County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates near one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Umatilla County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Umatilla County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates near one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Hermiston, the most populous UGB, and Umatilla UGB posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 2.8 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Umatilla County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural increase and periods of substantial net in-migration. A larger number of births relative to deaths led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Even so the natural increase continues to account for most of the population growth. Total population in Umatilla County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (2035-2066) (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to an increase in deaths. Even so, natural increase is expected to persist, combining with steady in-migration for continued strong population growth. Umatilla County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 13,300 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by close to 36,800 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Umatilla County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Umatilla County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates near one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Hermiston, the most populous UGB, and Umatilla UGB posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 2.8 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Umatilla County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural increase and periods of substantial net in-migration. A larger number of births relative to deaths led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Even so the natural increase continues to account for most of the population growth. Total population in Umatilla County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (2035-2066) (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to an increase in deaths. Even so, natural increase is expected to persist, combining with steady in-migration for continued strong population growth. Umatilla County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 13,300 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by close to 36,800 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 98. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Sherman County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Sherman County’s total population has declined since 2000, at an average annual rate of nearly one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Wasco UGB, one of its sub-areas, experienced population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Sherman County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Sherman County’s total population has declined since 2000, at an average annual rate of nearly one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Wasco UGB, one of its sub-areas, experienced population growth during the 2000s. Wasco, the most populous UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of a little less than one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. This translated into a population increase of about 30 persons. Sherman County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of consistent net out-migration and periods of natural decreases (more deaths than births, Figure 12). The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, which combined with a relatively steady number of births has resulted in a natural decrease for nine out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015. While net out-migration and natural decrease were common during the last decade, in more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has occurred, bringing with it some population growth. Total population in Sherman County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the two sub-areas of Rufus and Wasco (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the remaining 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of a growing natural decrease, which is expected to exceed net in-migration around 2030. Sherman County’s total population is forecast to increase by about 50 persons over the next 19 years (2016-2035), but will likely see population decline of more than 80 persons during the last 31 years of the forecast period (2035-2066). Sub-areas are expected to generally follow their historical patterns of population increase or decrease over the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Sherman County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Sherman County’s total population has declined since 2000, at an average annual rate of nearly one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Wasco UGB, one of its sub-areas, experienced population growth during the 2000s. Wasco, the most populous UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of a little less than one percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. This translated into a population increase of about 30 persons. Sherman County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of consistent net out-migration and periods of natural decreases (more deaths than births, Figure 12). The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, which combined with a relatively steady number of births has resulted in a natural decrease for nine out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015. While net out-migration and natural decrease were common during the last decade, in more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has occurred, bringing with it some population growth. Total population in Sherman County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the two sub-areas of Rufus and Wasco (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the remaining 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of a growing natural decrease, which is expected to exceed net in-migration around 2030. Sherman County’s total population is forecast to increase by about 50 persons over the next 19 years (2016-2035), but will likely see population decline of more than 80 persons during the last 31 years of the forecast period (2035-2066). Sub-areas are expected to generally follow their historical patterns of population increase or decrease over the forecast period. Close

• 99. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Morrow ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Morrow County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Boardman, the most populous UGB, and Irrigon posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.0 and 0.5 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Morrow County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of a substantial natural increase (Figure 12). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase in every year from 2000 to 2014. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population more growth. Total population in Morrow County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a larger base population—the denominator to calculate growth rates. As baby boomers age into the mid-term of the future, natural increase will reach its low point around 2045 and then rebound. Even so, Morrow County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 1,900 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by almost 4,900 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Morrow County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Boardman, the most populous UGB, and Irrigon posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.0 and 0.5 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Morrow County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of a substantial natural increase (Figure 12). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase in every year from 2000 to 2014. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population more growth. Total population in Morrow County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a larger base population—the denominator to calculate growth rates. As baby boomers age into the mid-term of the future, natural increase will reach its low point around 2045 and then rebound. Even so, Morrow County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 1,900 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by almost 4,900 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 100. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Lake County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Lake County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). While the county, as a whole, experienced a population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lake County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Lake County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). While the county, as a whole, experienced a population increase, the two UGB areas both recorded population decline. At the same time the area outside UGBs posted substantial population growth during the 2000s, adding an average of nearly 90 new persons per year. Lake County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of periods of substantial net in-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, continuing to account for all of Lake County’s population increase. Total population in Lake County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lake County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 600 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 1,400 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed some population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience slower rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lake County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Lake County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). While the county, as a whole, experienced a population increase, the two UGB areas both recorded population decline. At the same time the area outside UGBs posted substantial population growth during the 2000s, adding an average of nearly 90 new persons per year. Lake County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of periods of substantial net in-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, continuing to account for all of Lake County’s population increase. Total population in Lake County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lake County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 600 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 1,400 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed some population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience slower rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close