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• 41. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Summerville posted the highest average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and Imbler and Union were close behind with average annual growth rates of about 1.2 percent each. Union County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the combined result of a consistent natural increase and a net in-migration. The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, accounting for the majority of Union County’s population increase. Total population in Union County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the nearer-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the longer-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Steady increase in net in-migration is expected to offset the growing natural decrease, leading to relatively steady population growth over the forecast period. However, an aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term stabilization in the number of births. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Summerville posted the highest average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and Imbler and Union were close behind with average annual growth rates of about 1.2 percent each. Union County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the combined result of a consistent natural increase and a net in-migration. The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, accounting for the majority of Union County’s population increase. Total population in Union County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the nearer-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the longer-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Steady increase in net in-migration is expected to offset the growing natural decrease, leading to relatively steady population growth over the forecast period. However, an aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term stabilization in the number of births. Close

• 42. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney County’s total population has slowly declined since 2000, with an average annual rate of negative 0.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). Burns is accountable for the county’s overall declining population. All other sub-areas experienced very slight population growths during the 2000 to 2010 period, increasing by a total of 32 persons. Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of frequent net out-migration. The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, however, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase for 8 out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015 (Figure 12). Even so, net out-migration outweighed these slight natural increases, causing a slow decrease in the Harney County’s population since 2000. Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas are forecast to all decrease at a slightly faster rate in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 500 persons over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066), a loss in population mostly happening in areas outside the UGBs. Sub-areas are expected to generally follow historical patterns of population decrease over the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney County’s total population has slowly declined since 2000, with an average annual rate of negative 0.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). Burns is accountable for the county’s overall declining population. All other sub-areas experienced very slight population growths during the 2000 to 2010 period, increasing by a total of 32 persons. Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the direct result of frequent net out-migration. The county’s aging population has contributed to an increase in deaths, however, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase for 8 out of the 15 years between 2000 and 2015 (Figure 12). Even so, net out-migration outweighed these slight natural increases, causing a slow decrease in the Harney County’s population since 2000. Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas are forecast to all decrease at a slightly faster rate in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decrease by more than 500 persons over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066), a loss in population mostly happening in areas outside the UGBs. Sub-areas are expected to generally follow historical patterns of population decrease over the forecast period. Close

• 43. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2006-2015, Based on October 2005 Enrollments

  The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 7 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2005 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2006-2015, Based on October 2005 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Buelow, Vicky, Radin, Kenneth, Hough, George C., Jr., Rynerson, Charles Year: 2006 The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 7 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2005 PPS enrollment figures. It considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2005 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. The forecasts do not take into account local factors such as changing school programs or future school reorganizations that may have a significant effect on an individual school’s enrollment. It does consider PPS Board approved changes in attendance area boundaries and in schools’ grade configuration that were resolved prior to March 31, 2006. Forecasts were initially prepared for the District as a whole and for the students residing in the high school clusters and elementary school attendance areas. The students were then assigned to the schools they were predicted to attend yielding the Enrollment Forecasts for the individual schools in PPS. The school assignment was based on the current pattern of where the students live and the schools that they attend. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2006-2015, Based on October 2005 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Buelow, Vicky, Radin, Kenneth, Hough, George C., Jr., Rynerson, Charles Year: 2006 The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 7 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2005 PPS enrollment figures. It considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2005 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. The forecasts do not take into account local factors such as changing school programs or future school reorganizations that may have a significant effect on an individual school’s enrollment. It does consider PPS Board approved changes in attendance area boundaries and in schools’ grade configuration that were resolved prior to March 31, 2006. Forecasts were initially prepared for the District as a whole and for the students residing in the high school clusters and elementary school attendance areas. The students were then assigned to the schools they were predicted to attend yielding the Enrollment Forecasts for the individual schools in PPS. The school assignment was based on the current pattern of where the students live and the schools that they attend. Close

• 44. [Article] Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District

  This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Ramey, Renee Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public School District (GAPSD). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. For the district-wide forecast, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts were prepared for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which extends similar recent housing and population growth trends throughout the forecast period; (b) lower growth, assuming that population and housing growth rates in the district will noticeably decline thereby influencing a decrease in enrollments; and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average population, housing, and enrollment growth rates than expected. Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Greater Albany Public School District Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Ramey, Renee Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Greater Albany Public School District (GAPSD). The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. For the district-wide forecast, three scenarios of population, housing, and enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. Forecasts were prepared for the District by grade level using three scenarios: (a) the most likely enrollment growth which extends similar recent housing and population growth trends throughout the forecast period; (b) lower growth, assuming that population and housing growth rates in the district will noticeably decline thereby influencing a decrease in enrollments; and (c) higher growth, assuming higher average population, housing, and enrollment growth rates than expected. Close

• 45. [Article] Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Klamath Falls City Schools

  This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Klamath Falls City ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Klamath Falls City Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Buelow, Vicky, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Klamath Falls City Schools (KFCS). The Enrollment Forecasts are developed for each grade for both the district-wide forecast and for the individual schools. KFCS offers education for students in grades kindergarten through 12. However, there is an area within its geographic boundary where not all public school students attend schools in KFCS. This area is referred to as the ‘overlap’ area. Students residing in the overlap area in grades 9-12 attend school in KFCS and those in grades K-8 attend schools in the adjacent Klamath County School District. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2005 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. Special consideration was given to where in the district future population and housing growth may occur. Title: Enrollment Forecast (2006-2015) for Klamath Falls City Schools Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Buelow, Vicky, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2005 This report, prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Klamath Falls City Schools (KFCS). The Enrollment Forecasts are developed for each grade for both the district-wide forecast and for the individual schools. KFCS offers education for students in grades kindergarten through 12. However, there is an area within its geographic boundary where not all public school students attend schools in KFCS. This area is referred to as the ‘overlap’ area. Students residing in the overlap area in grades 9-12 attend school in KFCS and those in grades K-8 attend schools in the adjacent Klamath County School District. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2005 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. Special consideration was given to where in the district future population and housing growth may occur. Close

• 46. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2004-2015, Based on October 2003 Enrollments

  This is the fourth annual report prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) forecasting future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools (PPS). Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2004-2015, Based on October 2003 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Chen, Chen, Lycan, Richard Year: 2004 This is the fourth annual report prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) forecasting future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools (PPS). Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 enrollments; this report considers October 2003 PPS enrollments. This report provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2003 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This document provides the district-wide Enrollment Forecasts and an explanation of the methods and assumptions used to produce the forecasts. However, the forecasts for individual schools were subsequently revised to better reflect the changes in housing growth in Forest Park ES attendance area (Lincoln HS attendance area), the closing of Columbia Villa (Roosevelt HS attendance area) and the reconstruction of New Columbia. Use the tables in “Addendum to the Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015 and Revised Forecast Tables”, August 2004 for the forecasts by school. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2004-2015, Based on October 2003 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Chen, Chen, Lycan, Richard Year: 2004 This is the fourth annual report prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC) forecasting future enrollments for the Portland Public Schools (PPS). Previous annual reports were based on October 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 enrollments; this report considers October 2003 PPS enrollments. This report provides a district-wide Enrollment Forecast, Enrollment Forecasts for individual schools, and demographic information for Portland Public Schools. The report considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2003 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. This document provides the district-wide Enrollment Forecasts and an explanation of the methods and assumptions used to produce the forecasts. However, the forecasts for individual schools were subsequently revised to better reflect the changes in housing growth in Forest Park ES attendance area (Lincoln HS attendance area), the closing of Columbia Villa (Roosevelt HS attendance area) and the reconstruction of New Columbia. Use the tables in “Addendum to the Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015 and Revised Forecast Tables”, August 2004 for the forecasts by school. Close

• 47. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20

  The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Close

• 48. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14

  This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. CSD enrolled 5,015 students in Fall 2008, 139 fewer students (2.7 percent) than in Fall 2007. A small decrease had been forecast due to a relatively small birth cohort corresponding to the 2008-09 kindergarten class and a slowing housing market, but actual enrollment was even lower. In contrast to last year, there were almost no enrollment gains from new housing, and for the first time in many years the District lost students due to net mobility at the elementary level, that is, more children left the District than entered it. Enrollment losses in previous years were influenced more by age structure and the relative sizes of individual grade cohorts than by mobility. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2009-10 to 2013-14 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 This report presents the results of an updated demographic study for the Canby School District (CSD) conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years and forecasts of district-wide and individual school enrollments for the 2009-10 to 2013-14 school years. CSD enrolled 5,015 students in Fall 2008, 139 fewer students (2.7 percent) than in Fall 2007. A small decrease had been forecast due to a relatively small birth cohort corresponding to the 2008-09 kindergarten class and a slowing housing market, but actual enrollment was even lower. In contrast to last year, there were almost no enrollment gains from new housing, and for the first time in many years the District lost students due to net mobility at the elementary level, that is, more children left the District than entered it. Enrollment losses in previous years were influenced more by age structure and the relative sizes of individual grade cohorts than by mobility. Close

• 49. [Article] Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18

  The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five percent lower than its 1999-00 peak of 2,839. The enrollment decline is largely attributed to the smaller elementary classes of the early 2000s, compared with the peak enrollments of the middle to late 1990s. Middle school enrollment peaked in 2003-04, and high school enrollment peaked in 2005-06. Although secondary school enrollment has been declining in the past few years, elementary enrollment has been relatively stable since 2002-03. The number of incoming kindergarten and 1st grade students has remained steady, and in three of the past four years elementary grade cohorts have grown due to net migration of school-age residents into the District. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the PTSD from 2008-09 to 2017-18. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for modest enrollment growth in the PTSD during the next 10 years. Title: Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five percent lower than its 1999-00 peak of 2,839. The enrollment decline is largely attributed to the smaller elementary classes of the early 2000s, compared with the peak enrollments of the middle to late 1990s. Middle school enrollment peaked in 2003-04, and high school enrollment peaked in 2005-06. Although secondary school enrollment has been declining in the past few years, elementary enrollment has been relatively stable since 2002-03. The number of incoming kindergarten and 1st grade students has remained steady, and in three of the past four years elementary grade cohorts have grown due to net migration of school-age residents into the District. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the PTSD from 2008-09 to 2017-18. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for modest enrollment growth in the PTSD during the next 10 years. Close

• 50. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates, both at about 0.6 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wasco County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a substantial net in-migration and periods of small natural increases and decreases (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been more stable during second half of the decade and the recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wasco County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births)—as well as a decline in net in-migration toward the end of the forecast. Even so, Wasco County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 4,400 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 10,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). The Dalles, Mosier, and the area outside UGBs are expected to grow the most of all of Wasco County’s sub-areas. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Wasco County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Wasco County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). The Dalles UGB and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates, both at about 0.6 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Wasco County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a substantial net in-migration and periods of small natural increases and decreases (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been more stable during second half of the decade and the recent years, contributing to a population increase. Total population in Wasco County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to a natural decrease (more deaths than births)—as well as a decline in net in-migration toward the end of the forecast. Even so, Wasco County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 4,400 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by more than 10,500 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). The Dalles, Mosier, and the area outside UGBs are expected to grow the most of all of Wasco County’s sub-areas. Close