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• 21. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of above one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Eagle Point and Central Point UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net in-migration and natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline to almost nothing by 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—slowing population growth by 2010. Since 2010 net in-migration has driven rising population growth rates, while natural increase continues to shrink. Total population in Jackson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 44,600 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 95,600 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jackson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of above one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Eagle Point and Central Point UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net in-migration and natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline to almost nothing by 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—slowing population growth by 2010. Since 2010 net in-migration has driven rising population growth rates, while natural increase continues to shrink. Total population in Jackson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 44,600 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 95,600 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 22. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of just under one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Veneta and Creswell posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.2 and 3.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Lane County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and in the early years, natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2012. Since 2012, net in-migration has outpaced natural increase, driving rising population growth rates. Total population in Lane County as a whole as well as within many of its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines and eventually becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lane County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 67,300 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 152,400 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lane County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000; with an average annual growth rate of just under one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Veneta and Creswell posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.2 and 3.1 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Lane County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of substantial net inmigration and in the early years, natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to shrink between 2007 and 2012. Since 2012, net in-migration has outpaced natural increase, driving rising population growth rates. Total population in Lane County as a whole as well as within many of its sub-areas is forecast to grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines and eventually becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Lane County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 67,300 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 152,400 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 23. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Morrow ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Morrow County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Boardman, the most populous UGB, and Irrigon posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.0 and 0.5 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Morrow County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of a substantial natural increase (Figure 12). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase in every year from 2000 to 2014. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population more growth. Total population in Morrow County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a larger base population—the denominator to calculate growth rates. As baby boomers age into the mid-term of the future, natural increase will reach its low point around 2045 and then rebound. Even so, Morrow County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 1,900 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by almost 4,900 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the County and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Morrow County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of less than half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Boardman, the most populous UGB, and Irrigon posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.0 and 0.5 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Morrow County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the direct result of a substantial natural increase (Figure 12). Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to fewer births in recent years. The larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase in every year from 2000 to 2014. In more recent years (2010 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population more growth. Total population in Morrow County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a larger base population—the denominator to calculate growth rates. As baby boomers age into the mid-term of the future, natural increase will reach its low point around 2045 and then rebound. Even so, Morrow County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 1,900 over the next 19 years (2016-2035) and by almost 4,900 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period. Close

• 24. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Martin, Sheila Year: 2014 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Rancik, Kevin Christopher, Martin, Sheila Year: 2014 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2014‐15 and 2023‐24. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 25. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 26. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District Enrollment Forecast 2016-2017 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2015 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Gresham‐Barlow School District (GBSD) for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 27. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2015‐16 to 2024‐25 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2015‐16 and 2024‐25. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 28. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32

  This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2017-18 to 2031-32 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the North Santiam School District (NSSD) for the 15-year period between 2017-18 and 2031-32. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 15-year period. Close

• 29. [Article] Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon

  Using 1990 U.S. Census data, this report has documented the characteristics of people moving to and from Oregon between 1985 and 1990. Substantial migration occurred during this time with about 404,000 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon Author: Wineberg, Howard, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1995 Using 1990 U.S. Census data, this report has documented the characteristics of people moving to and from Oregon between 1985 and 1990. Substantial migration occurred during this time with about 404,000 people moving to Oregon and about 281,000 people leaving Oregon. Approximately one half of the people moving to Oregon came from California and Washington and about 60% of the people leaving Oregon moved to these two states. Differentials were found in the characteristics of in- and out-migrants. In particular, in-migrants were more likely to be below poverty, 65 years of age and older, and have difficulty speaking English than out-migrants. A greater proportion of out-migrants had a bachelor's degree and income levels were higher for out-migrants than in-migrants. The implications of these findings are discussed. Title: Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon Author: Wineberg, Howard, Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 1995 Using 1990 U.S. Census data, this report has documented the characteristics of people moving to and from Oregon between 1985 and 1990. Substantial migration occurred during this time with about 404,000 people moving to Oregon and about 281,000 people leaving Oregon. Approximately one half of the people moving to Oregon came from California and Washington and about 60% of the people leaving Oregon moved to these two states. Differentials were found in the characteristics of in- and out-migrants. In particular, in-migrants were more likely to be below poverty, 65 years of age and older, and have difficulty speaking English than out-migrants. A greater proportion of out-migrants had a bachelor's degree and income levels were higher for out-migrants than in-migrants. The implications of these findings are discussed. Close

• 30. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015, Based on October 2004 Enrollments

  The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 6 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2004 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015, Based on October 2004 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Lycan, Richard Year: 2005 The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 6 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2004 PPS enrollment figures. It considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. The forecasts do not take into account local factors such as changing school programs or future school reorganizations that may have a significant effect on an individual school’s enrollment. Forecasts were initially prepared for the District as a whole and for the students residing in the high school clusters and elementary school attendance areas. The students were then assigned to the schools they were predicted to attend. A longer, more detailed report describes the data sources and methods and presents Enrollment Forecasts for each school, by grade. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast, 2005-2015, Based on October 2004 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Edmonston, Barry, Proehl, Risa S., Endo, Sonoko, Lycan, Richard Year: 2005 The Population Research Center has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Portland Public Schools (PPS) for the past 6 years. This year’s forecast relies on October 2004 PPS enrollment figures. It considers several factors that are likely to affect the school district's enrollments between the October 2004 and 2015, including the future number of births, net migrants, and the proportion of school-age children and youth enrolled in the public schools. The forecasts do not take into account local factors such as changing school programs or future school reorganizations that may have a significant effect on an individual school’s enrollment. Forecasts were initially prepared for the District as a whole and for the students residing in the high school clusters and elementary school attendance areas. The students were then assigned to the schools they were predicted to attend. A longer, more detailed report describes the data sources and methods and presents Enrollment Forecasts for each school, by grade. Close