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• 1. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Long-Range Enrollment Forecast, 2008-09 to 2017-18

  To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Long-Range Enrollment Forecast, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast for the 2008-09 through 2017-18 school years has been prepared as a supplement to the 2008-09 to 2012-13 forecast that was presented to the TTSD Board in December, 2007. Forecasts for 2008-09 and 2009-10 for the District and its schools are identical to those published in December, and secondary school forecasts are unchanged through 2012-13. Elementary schools undergo small revisions beginning in 2010-11 due to the availability of updated birth data. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 19 of the past 20 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Under current plans there is a shrinking amount of developable residential land in the District’s communities. If plans remain unchanged and new housing construction returns to recent levels after the current downturn, the District will be near its residential capacity by the end of the 10 year horizon of these forecasts. However, additional residential capacity may be added in the West Bull Mountain area, where concept planning for areas added to the Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 is underway. Also, recent comprehensive plans envision development in the town centers of the Cities of Tigard and Tualatin that includes a mix of higher-density and affordable housing. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Long-Range Enrollment Forecast, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast for the 2008-09 through 2017-18 school years has been prepared as a supplement to the 2008-09 to 2012-13 forecast that was presented to the TTSD Board in December, 2007. Forecasts for 2008-09 and 2009-10 for the District and its schools are identical to those published in December, and secondary school forecasts are unchanged through 2012-13. Elementary schools undergo small revisions beginning in 2010-11 due to the availability of updated birth data. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 19 of the past 20 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Under current plans there is a shrinking amount of developable residential land in the District’s communities. If plans remain unchanged and new housing construction returns to recent levels after the current downturn, the District will be near its residential capacity by the end of the 10 year horizon of these forecasts. However, additional residential capacity may be added in the West Bull Mountain area, where concept planning for areas added to the Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 is underway. Also, recent comprehensive plans envision development in the town centers of the Cities of Tigard and Tualatin that includes a mix of higher-density and affordable housing. Close

• 2. [Article] Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts

  This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Close