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• 1. [Article] Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study : Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps

  FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study : Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps Author: González, Frank I, Geist, Eric L., Synolakis, Costas, Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Jaffe, Bruce, Johnson, Jeff, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Titov, Vasily V., Venturato, Angie J., Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2006 FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study (Chowdhury et al., 2005). Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State Agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. Title: Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study : Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps Author: González, Frank I, Geist, Eric L., Synolakis, Costas, Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Jaffe, Bruce, Johnson, Jeff, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Titov, Vasily V., Venturato, Angie J., Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2006 FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study (Chowdhury et al., 2005). Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State Agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. Close

• 2. [Article] Paleotsunami Inundation of a Beach Ridge Plain: Cobble Ridge Overtopping and Interridge Valley Flooding in Seaside, Oregon, USA

  The Seaside beach ridge plain was inundated by six paleotsunamis during the last ∼2500 years. Large runups (adjusted >10m in height) overtopped seawardmost cobble beach ridges (7m elevation) at ∼1.3 and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Paleotsunami Inundation of a Beach Ridge Plain: Cobble Ridge Overtopping and Interridge Valley Flooding in Seaside, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Jol, Harry M., Horning, Thomas, Cruikshank, Kenneth M. Year: 2010 The Seaside beach ridge plain was inundated by six paleotsunamis during the last ∼2500 years. Large runups (adjusted >10m in height) overtopped seawardmost cobble beach ridges (7m elevation) at ∼1.3 and ∼2.6 ka before present. Smaller paleotsunami (6−8m in height) likely entered the beach plain interior (4-5m elevation) through the paleo-Necanicum bay mouth. The AD 1700 Cascadia paleotsunami had a modest runup (6-7mheight), yet it locally inundated to 1.5 km landward distance. Bed shear stresses (100−3,300 dyne cm−2) are estimated for paleotsunami surges (0.5−2m depths) that flowed down slopes (0.002−0.017 gradient) on the landward side of the cobble beach ridges. Critical entrainment shear stresses of 1,130−1,260 dyne cm−2 were needed to dislodge the largest clasts (26−32 cm diameter) in paleotsunami coulees that were cut (100−200m width) into the landward side of the cobble ridges. Title: Paleotsunami Inundation of a Beach Ridge Plain: Cobble Ridge Overtopping and Interridge Valley Flooding in Seaside, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Jol, Harry M., Horning, Thomas, Cruikshank, Kenneth M. Year: 2010 The Seaside beach ridge plain was inundated by six paleotsunamis during the last ∼2500 years. Large runups (adjusted >10m in height) overtopped seawardmost cobble beach ridges (7m elevation) at ∼1.3 and ∼2.6 ka before present. Smaller paleotsunami (6−8m in height) likely entered the beach plain interior (4-5m elevation) through the paleo-Necanicum bay mouth. The AD 1700 Cascadia paleotsunami had a modest runup (6-7mheight), yet it locally inundated to 1.5 km landward distance. Bed shear stresses (100−3,300 dyne cm−2) are estimated for paleotsunami surges (0.5−2m depths) that flowed down slopes (0.002−0.017 gradient) on the landward side of the cobble beach ridges. Critical entrainment shear stresses of 1,130−1,260 dyne cm−2 were needed to dislodge the largest clasts (26−32 cm diameter) in paleotsunami coulees that were cut (100−200m width) into the landward side of the cobble ridges. Close

• 3. [Article] Multiple Reoccupations after Four Paleotsunami Inundations (0.3–1.3 ka) at a Prehistoric Site in the Netarts Littoral Cell, Northern Oregon Coast, USA

  Netarts Bay is the setting of one of the largest concentrations of late prehistoric Native American settlements on the tectonically active Oregon coast. A prehistoric site (35TI74) exposed by sea cliff ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Multiple Reoccupations after Four Paleotsunami Inundations (0.3–1.3 ka) at a Prehistoric Site in the Netarts Littoral Cell, Northern Oregon Coast, USA Author: Minor, Rick, Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2017 Netarts Bay is the setting of one of the largest concentrations of late prehistoric Native American settlements on the tectonically active Oregon coast. A prehistoric site (35TI74) exposed by sea cliff erosion in 1998 at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell contained a stratigraphic record of activity by prehistoric Native Americans and interbedded paleotsunami deposits. The nearfield paleotsunamis were produced by great Cascadia earthquakes (Mw8.5 ± 0.5) emanating from the Cascadia Subduction Zone offshore, as previously documented in episodically buried tidal marsh surfaces at the south end of Netarts Bay and in many other estuaries in the region. The cultural deposits at 35TI74 reflect multiple reoccupations by Native Americans at this barrage creek flood plain site between paleotsunami runup events (≥7.5 m elevation) at 1.3 ka, 1.1 ka, 0.8–0.9 ka, and 0.3 ka. The conditions that led to the exposure of 35TI74 are traced to erosion of a protective beach dune ramp at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell, placing the site within reach of progressive storm-surf erosion. The diminishing geoarchaeological record at 35TI74 represents a microcosm of the sea cliff erosional processes that threaten vulnerable prehistoric shoreline archaeological sites along much of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Copyright © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Title: Multiple Reoccupations after Four Paleotsunami Inundations (0.3–1.3 ka) at a Prehistoric Site in the Netarts Littoral Cell, Northern Oregon Coast, USA Author: Minor, Rick, Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2017 Netarts Bay is the setting of one of the largest concentrations of late prehistoric Native American settlements on the tectonically active Oregon coast. A prehistoric site (35TI74) exposed by sea cliff erosion in 1998 at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell contained a stratigraphic record of activity by prehistoric Native Americans and interbedded paleotsunami deposits. The nearfield paleotsunamis were produced by great Cascadia earthquakes (Mw8.5 ± 0.5) emanating from the Cascadia Subduction Zone offshore, as previously documented in episodically buried tidal marsh surfaces at the south end of Netarts Bay and in many other estuaries in the region. The cultural deposits at 35TI74 reflect multiple reoccupations by Native Americans at this barrage creek flood plain site between paleotsunami runup events (≥7.5 m elevation) at 1.3 ka, 1.1 ka, 0.8–0.9 ka, and 0.3 ka. The conditions that led to the exposure of 35TI74 are traced to erosion of a protective beach dune ramp at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell, placing the site within reach of progressive storm-surf erosion. The diminishing geoarchaeological record at 35TI74 represents a microcosm of the sea cliff erosional processes that threaten vulnerable prehistoric shoreline archaeological sites along much of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Copyright © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Close

• 4. [Article] Impacts of Predicted Global Sea-Level Rise on Oregon Beaches and Tidelands

  Forward by: Phillip Johnson, Executive Director Oregon Shores Conservation Coalition The Oregon Shores Conservation Coalition’s "Coastal Climate Change Adaptation Project" is under development as an experiment ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Impacts of Predicted Global Sea-Level Rise on Oregon Beaches and Tidelands Author: Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2013 Forward by: Phillip Johnson, Executive Director Oregon Shores Conservation Coalition The Oregon Shores Conservation Coalition’s "Coastal Climate Change Adaptation Project" is under development as an experiment in grassroots organizing for adaptive planning for expected climate change impacts. Oregon Shores is a regional conservation group with a 40-year history of working to protect marine, shoreline, estuarine and other coastal habitats. The organization’s board and staff came to recognize that the likely effects of climate change—rising sea levels, more intensive storm surges, increased erosion, lower-river flooding, among others—would affect every aspect of the group’s work. Consequently, a new program, the Climate Action Program, was created to address the need for long-range adaptive planning to preserve the resilience of communities, both human and natural. Oregon Shores’ premise in developing the Coastal Climate Change Adaptation Project is that for adaptive planning to be meaningful, broad community acceptance and support are necessary. The project is thus designed as a grassroots effort, with the aim of developing broad support before any proposal should be submitted to local governments. Title: Impacts of Predicted Global Sea-Level Rise on Oregon Beaches and Tidelands Author: Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2013 Forward by: Phillip Johnson, Executive Director Oregon Shores Conservation Coalition The Oregon Shores Conservation Coalition’s "Coastal Climate Change Adaptation Project" is under development as an experiment in grassroots organizing for adaptive planning for expected climate change impacts. Oregon Shores is a regional conservation group with a 40-year history of working to protect marine, shoreline, estuarine and other coastal habitats. The organization’s board and staff came to recognize that the likely effects of climate change—rising sea levels, more intensive storm surges, increased erosion, lower-river flooding, among others—would affect every aspect of the group’s work. Consequently, a new program, the Climate Action Program, was created to address the need for long-range adaptive planning to preserve the resilience of communities, both human and natural. Oregon Shores’ premise in developing the Coastal Climate Change Adaptation Project is that for adaptive planning to be meaningful, broad community acceptance and support are necessary. The project is thus designed as a grassroots effort, with the aim of developing broad support before any proposal should be submitted to local governments. Close

• 5. [Article] Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for Near- and Far-Field Seismic Sources

  The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for Near- and Far-Field Seismic Sources Author: González, Frank, Geist, Eric L., Jaffe, Bruce, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Synolakis, Costas, Titov, Vasily V., Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Johnson, Jeff, Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Venturato, Angie, Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2009 The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Title: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for Near- and Far-Field Seismic Sources Author: González, Frank, Geist, Eric L., Jaffe, Bruce, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Synolakis, Costas, Titov, Vasily V., Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Johnson, Jeff, Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Venturato, Angie, Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2009 The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Close

• 6. [Article] Large-Scale Fluidization Features from Late Holocene Coseismic Paleoliquefaction in the Willamette River Forearc Valley, Central Cascadia Subduction Zone, Oregon, USA

  A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Large-Scale Fluidization Features from Late Holocene Coseismic Paleoliquefaction in the Willamette River Forearc Valley, Central Cascadia Subduction Zone, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Kristensen, Kurt, Minor, Rick Year: 2014 A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. Eight cutbank sites are reported that show evidence of large-scale fluidization features (≥10 cm width) including clastic sand dikes and intruded sand sills in Holocene overbank mud deposits. The targeted alluvial sequences, and hosted paleoliquefaction records, are of late Holocene age, as based on radiocarbon dating, flood silt thickness (≤4 m thickness), and minimal consolidation of dike sand (~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2 unconfined compressive strength). Two of the paleoliquefaction sites, which are separated by 150 km distance, overlap in age (175 - 500 yr BP) with the last great megathrust rupture (Mw 8.5 - 9.0) in the Cascadia margin, dated at AD 1700. The scarcity of exposed late Holocene paleoliquefaction sites in the Willamette River cutbanks motivated subsurface searches for thick basal sand deposits and overlying fluidization features, using floodplain geomorphological analyses, ground penetrating radar, and remote pole-camera scans of deep trench walls (3 - 4 m depth). The onset of large-scale fluidization features occurred in overbank mud deposits (2 - 3 m thickness) above unconsolidated sand bodies (≥2 m thickness) with unconfined compressive strengths of ~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2. We recommend geomorphically-targeted subsurface explorations rather than traditional cutbank searches for evidence of coseismic paleoliquefaction in high-gradient river valley systems. Title: Large-Scale Fluidization Features from Late Holocene Coseismic Paleoliquefaction in the Willamette River Forearc Valley, Central Cascadia Subduction Zone, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Kristensen, Kurt, Minor, Rick Year: 2014 A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. Eight cutbank sites are reported that show evidence of large-scale fluidization features (≥10 cm width) including clastic sand dikes and intruded sand sills in Holocene overbank mud deposits. The targeted alluvial sequences, and hosted paleoliquefaction records, are of late Holocene age, as based on radiocarbon dating, flood silt thickness (≤4 m thickness), and minimal consolidation of dike sand (~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2 unconfined compressive strength). Two of the paleoliquefaction sites, which are separated by 150 km distance, overlap in age (175 - 500 yr BP) with the last great megathrust rupture (Mw 8.5 - 9.0) in the Cascadia margin, dated at AD 1700. The scarcity of exposed late Holocene paleoliquefaction sites in the Willamette River cutbanks motivated subsurface searches for thick basal sand deposits and overlying fluidization features, using floodplain geomorphological analyses, ground penetrating radar, and remote pole-camera scans of deep trench walls (3 - 4 m depth). The onset of large-scale fluidization features occurred in overbank mud deposits (2 - 3 m thickness) above unconsolidated sand bodies (≥2 m thickness) with unconfined compressive strengths of ~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2. We recommend geomorphically-targeted subsurface explorations rather than traditional cutbank searches for evidence of coseismic paleoliquefaction in high-gradient river valley systems. Close