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• 1. [Article] A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment for New York Harbor

  Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment for New York Harbor Author: Orton, Philip M., Hall, T. M., Talke, Stefan A., Blumberg, Alan F., Georgas, Nickitas, Vinogradov, S. Year: 2016 Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region's present-day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical-stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment is based on simulations of historical storms with many random tide scenarios. Synthetic TC landfall rates and the final TC and ETC flood exceedance curves are all shown to be consistent with curves computed using historical data, within 95% confidence ranges. Combining the ETC and TC results together, the 100 year return period storm tide at NYH is 2.70 m (2.51–2.92 at 95% confidence), and Hurricane Sandy's storm tide of 3.38 m was a 260 year (170–420) storm tide. Deeper analyses of historical flood reports from estimated Category-3 hurricanes in 1788 and 1821 lead to new estimates and reduced uncertainties for their floods and show that Sandy's storm tide was the largest at NYH back to at least 1700. The flood exceedance curves for ETCs and TCs have sharply different slopes due to their differing meteorology and frequency, warranting separate treatment in hazard assessments. Title: A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment for New York Harbor Author: Orton, Philip M., Hall, T. M., Talke, Stefan A., Blumberg, Alan F., Georgas, Nickitas, Vinogradov, S. Year: 2016 Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region's present-day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical-stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment is based on simulations of historical storms with many random tide scenarios. Synthetic TC landfall rates and the final TC and ETC flood exceedance curves are all shown to be consistent with curves computed using historical data, within 95% confidence ranges. Combining the ETC and TC results together, the 100 year return period storm tide at NYH is 2.70 m (2.51–2.92 at 95% confidence), and Hurricane Sandy's storm tide of 3.38 m was a 260 year (170–420) storm tide. Deeper analyses of historical flood reports from estimated Category-3 hurricanes in 1788 and 1821 lead to new estimates and reduced uncertainties for their floods and show that Sandy's storm tide was the largest at NYH back to at least 1700. The flood exceedance curves for ETCs and TCs have sharply different slopes due to their differing meteorology and frequency, warranting separate treatment in hazard assessments. Close

• 2. [Article] Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding

  Here, we demonstrate that reductions in the depth of inlets or estuary channels can be used to reduce or prevent coastal flooding. A validated hydrodynamic model of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC), is ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding Author: Orton, Philip M., Talke, Stefan A., Jay, David A., Yin, Larry, Blumberg, Alan F., Georgas, Nickitas, Zhao, Haihong, Roberts, Hugh J., MacManus, Kytt Year: 2015 Here, we demonstrate that reductions in the depth of inlets or estuary channels can be used to reduce or prevent coastal flooding. A validated hydrodynamic model of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC), is used to test nature-based adaptation measures in ameliorating flooding for NYC’s two largest historical coastal flood events. In addition to control runs with modern bathymetry, three altered landscape scenarios are tested: (1) increasing the area of wetlands to their 1879 footprint and bathymetry, but leaving deep shipping channels unaltered; (2) shallowing all areas deeper than 2 m in the bay to be 2 m below Mean Low Water; (3) shallowing only the narrowest part of the inlet to the bay. These three scenarios are deliberately extreme and designed to evaluate the leverage each approach exerts on water levels. They result in peak water level reductions of 0.3%, 15%, and 6.8% for Hurricane Sandy, and 2.4%, 46% and 30% for the Category-3 hurricane of 1821, respectively (bay-wide averages). These results suggest that shallowing can provide greater flood protection than wetland restoration, and it is particularly effective at reducing "fast-pulse" storm surges that rise and fall quickly over several hours, like that of the 1821 storm. Nonetheless, the goal of flood mitigation must be weighed against economic, navigation, and ecological needs, and practical concerns such as the availability of sediment. Title: Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding Author: Orton, Philip M., Talke, Stefan A., Jay, David A., Yin, Larry, Blumberg, Alan F., Georgas, Nickitas, Zhao, Haihong, Roberts, Hugh J., MacManus, Kytt Year: 2015 Here, we demonstrate that reductions in the depth of inlets or estuary channels can be used to reduce or prevent coastal flooding. A validated hydrodynamic model of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC), is used to test nature-based adaptation measures in ameliorating flooding for NYC’s two largest historical coastal flood events. In addition to control runs with modern bathymetry, three altered landscape scenarios are tested: (1) increasing the area of wetlands to their 1879 footprint and bathymetry, but leaving deep shipping channels unaltered; (2) shallowing all areas deeper than 2 m in the bay to be 2 m below Mean Low Water; (3) shallowing only the narrowest part of the inlet to the bay. These three scenarios are deliberately extreme and designed to evaluate the leverage each approach exerts on water levels. They result in peak water level reductions of 0.3%, 15%, and 6.8% for Hurricane Sandy, and 2.4%, 46% and 30% for the Category-3 hurricane of 1821, respectively (bay-wide averages). These results suggest that shallowing can provide greater flood protection than wetland restoration, and it is particularly effective at reducing "fast-pulse" storm surges that rise and fall quickly over several hours, like that of the 1821 storm. Nonetheless, the goal of flood mitigation must be weighed against economic, navigation, and ecological needs, and practical concerns such as the availability of sediment. Close

• 3. [Article] Increasing Storm Tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013

  Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Increasing Storm Tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013 Author: Talke, Stefan A., Orton, Philip M., Jay, David A. Year: 2014 Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide. Approximately half of long-term variance is anticorrelated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10 year storm tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea level since 1856, the 10 year flood level has increased by approximately 0.72 ± 0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20–25%. Title: Increasing Storm Tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013 Author: Talke, Stefan A., Orton, Philip M., Jay, David A. Year: 2014 Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide. Approximately half of long-term variance is anticorrelated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10 year storm tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea level since 1856, the 10 year flood level has increased by approximately 0.72 ± 0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20–25%. Close

• 4. [Article] Particle Trapping in Stratified Estuaries - Definition of a Parameter Space

  Estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) retain suspended particulate matter (SPM) through advection, settling, aggregation and non-linearities in bed processes. This contribution defines for the first time a ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Particle Trapping in Stratified Estuaries - Definition of a Parameter Space Author: Jay, David A., Orton, Philip M., Chisholm, Thomas A., Wilson, Douglas J., Fain, Annika M., McGinity, John Year: 2003 Estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) retain suspended particulate matter (SPM) through advection, settling, aggregation and non-linearities in bed processes. This contribution defines for the first time a parameter space descriptive of ETM water-column particle trapping processes through a scaling analysis of the local and integral SPM balances. In the absence of long-term deposition, there are five primary parameters for the large particles or aggregates that are typically trapped. Rouse number P, the ratio of settling velocity WS of the SPM relative to the shear velocity U*, describes the material trapped in the ETM in terms of the local vertical balance between vertical mixing and aggregate settling. Advection number A= P ΔU/UT scales the landward transport of SPM by tidal and mean flow processes in terms of flood-ebb velocity difference (ΔU) and maximum tidal current (UT). Supply number SR = P UR/UT defines SPM supply and removal (UR is river flow). Changes in the estuarine inventory of SPM are described in terms of a Trapping Efficiency E, a ratio of peak ETM concentration to fluvial or marine supply concentration. The effects of aggregation in the integral dynamic balance are quantified by a Floc number F that describes the tendency of aggregates to form through shear-driven collisions. This study uses observations from two strongly advective systems (the Columbia and Fraser Rivers) plus literature values from 13 other estuaries to illustrate the applicability of the above scaling. The primary question investigated is the relationship of trapping efficiency E and Floc number F to other parameters, especially river flow (expressed in terms of supply number SR). The strongest SPM trapping (high E) occurs in mid-ETM, where A ~0. The extreme high flows observed in the Fraser River estuary show how ETM trapping becomes ineffective as the estuary length contracts to one tidal excursion or less (limit of high SR). Use of data from all 15 estuaries shows that there is a strong trend toward more efficient trapping for low SR. E and F are positively correlated, so that aggregation becomes more prominent in systems with weak to moderate river flow. Examination of tidal monthly and seasonal particle properties at four closely-spaced moorings in the Columbia emphasize the importance of strong ETM gradients – particle properties are diverse even when the hydrodynamic regime is apparently similar. Finally, scaling variables and data are combined to express ETM properties in terms of U*, UR and UT.. Title: Particle Trapping in Stratified Estuaries - Definition of a Parameter Space Author: Jay, David A., Orton, Philip M., Chisholm, Thomas A., Wilson, Douglas J., Fain, Annika M., McGinity, John Year: 2003 Estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) retain suspended particulate matter (SPM) through advection, settling, aggregation and non-linearities in bed processes. This contribution defines for the first time a parameter space descriptive of ETM water-column particle trapping processes through a scaling analysis of the local and integral SPM balances. In the absence of long-term deposition, there are five primary parameters for the large particles or aggregates that are typically trapped. Rouse number P, the ratio of settling velocity WS of the SPM relative to the shear velocity U*, describes the material trapped in the ETM in terms of the local vertical balance between vertical mixing and aggregate settling. Advection number A= P ΔU/UT scales the landward transport of SPM by tidal and mean flow processes in terms of flood-ebb velocity difference (ΔU) and maximum tidal current (UT). Supply number SR = P UR/UT defines SPM supply and removal (UR is river flow). Changes in the estuarine inventory of SPM are described in terms of a Trapping Efficiency E, a ratio of peak ETM concentration to fluvial or marine supply concentration. The effects of aggregation in the integral dynamic balance are quantified by a Floc number F that describes the tendency of aggregates to form through shear-driven collisions. This study uses observations from two strongly advective systems (the Columbia and Fraser Rivers) plus literature values from 13 other estuaries to illustrate the applicability of the above scaling. The primary question investigated is the relationship of trapping efficiency E and Floc number F to other parameters, especially river flow (expressed in terms of supply number SR). The strongest SPM trapping (high E) occurs in mid-ETM, where A ~0. The extreme high flows observed in the Fraser River estuary show how ETM trapping becomes ineffective as the estuary length contracts to one tidal excursion or less (limit of high SR). Use of data from all 15 estuaries shows that there is a strong trend toward more efficient trapping for low SR. E and F are positively correlated, so that aggregation becomes more prominent in systems with weak to moderate river flow. Examination of tidal monthly and seasonal particle properties at four closely-spaced moorings in the Columbia emphasize the importance of strong ETM gradients – particle properties are diverse even when the hydrodynamic regime is apparently similar. Finally, scaling variables and data are combined to express ETM properties in terms of U*, UR and UT.. Close