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• 1. [Article] Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA

  This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the American Geophysical Union and can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)2169-8996.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA Author: Hegewisch, Katherine C., Rupp, David E., Abatzoglou, John T., Mote, Philip W. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the American Geophysical Union and can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)2169-8996. Title: Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA Author: Hegewisch, Katherine C., Rupp, David E., Abatzoglou, John T., Mote, Philip W. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the American Geophysical Union and can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)2169-8996. Close

• 2. [Article] The Response of Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover to a Changing Climate

  A snowpack model sensitivity study, observed changes of snow cover in the NOAA satellite dataset, and snow cover simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Response of Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover to a Changing Climate Author: Brown, Ross D., Mote, Philip W. A snowpack model sensitivity study, observed changes of snow cover in the NOAA satellite dataset, and snow cover simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset are used to provide new insights into the climate response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover. Under conditions of warming and increasing precipitation that characterizes both observed and projected climate change over much of the NH land area with seasonal snow cover, the sensitivity analysis indicated snow cover duration (SCD) was the snow cover variable exhibiting the strongest climate sensitivity, with sensitivity varying with climate regime and elevation. The highest snow cover–climate sensitivity was found in maritime climates with extensive winter snowfall—for example, the coastal mountains of western North America (NA). Analysis of trends in snow cover duration during the 1966–2007 period of NOAA data showed the largest decreases were concentrated in a zone where seasonal mean air temperatures were in the range of −5° to +5°C that extended around the midlatitudinal coastal margins of the continents. These findings were echoed by the climate models that showed earlier and more widespread decreases in SCD than annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), with the zone of earliest significant decrease located over the maritime margins of NA and western Europe. The lowest SCD–climate sensitivity was observed in continental interior climates with relatively cold and dry winters, where precipitation plays a greater role in snow cover variability. The sensitivity analysis suggested a potentially complex elevation response of SCD and SWEmax to increasing temperature and precipitation in mountain regions as a result of nonlinear interactions between the duration of the snow season and snow accumulation rates. Title: The Response of Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover to a Changing Climate Author: Brown, Ross D., Mote, Philip W. A snowpack model sensitivity study, observed changes of snow cover in the NOAA satellite dataset, and snow cover simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset are used to provide new insights into the climate response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover. Under conditions of warming and increasing precipitation that characterizes both observed and projected climate change over much of the NH land area with seasonal snow cover, the sensitivity analysis indicated snow cover duration (SCD) was the snow cover variable exhibiting the strongest climate sensitivity, with sensitivity varying with climate regime and elevation. The highest snow cover–climate sensitivity was found in maritime climates with extensive winter snowfall—for example, the coastal mountains of western North America (NA). Analysis of trends in snow cover duration during the 1966–2007 period of NOAA data showed the largest decreases were concentrated in a zone where seasonal mean air temperatures were in the range of −5° to +5°C that extended around the midlatitudinal coastal margins of the continents. These findings were echoed by the climate models that showed earlier and more widespread decreases in SCD than annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), with the zone of earliest significant decrease located over the maritime margins of NA and western Europe. The lowest SCD–climate sensitivity was observed in continental interior climates with relatively cold and dry winters, where precipitation plays a greater role in snow cover variability. The sensitivity analysis suggested a potentially complex elevation response of SCD and SWEmax to increasing temperature and precipitation in mountain regions as a result of nonlinear interactions between the duration of the snow season and snow accumulation rates. Close

• 3. [Article] Evaluation of WRF and HadRM Mesoscale Climate Simulations over the U.S. Pacific Northwest

  This work compares the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM) simulations with the observed daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and precipitation ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluation of WRF and HadRM Mesoscale Climate Simulations over the U.S. Pacific Northwest Author: Salathé, Eric P., Dulière, Valérie, Zhang, Yongxin, Mote, Philip W. This work compares the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM) simulations with the observed daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and precipitation at Historical Climatology Network (HCN) stations over the U.S. Pacific Northwest for 2003–07. The WRF and HadRM runs were driven by the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (R-2) data. The simulated Tmax in WRF and HadRM as well as in R-2 compares well with the observations. Predominantly cold biases of Tmax are noted in WRF and HadRM in spring and summer, while in winter and fall more stations show warm biases, especially in HadRM. Large cold biases of Tmax are noted in R-2 at all times. The simulated Tmin compares reasonably well with the observations, although not as well as Tmax in both models and in the reanalysis R-2. Warm biases of Tmin prevail in both model simulations, while R-2 shows mainly cold biases. The R-2 data play a role in the model biases of Tmax, although there are also clear indications of resolution dependency. The model biases of Tmin originate mainly from the regional models. The temporal correlation between the simulated and observed daily precipitation is relatively low in both models and in the reanalysis; however, the correlation increases steadily for longer averaging times. The high-resolution models perform better than R-2, although the nested WRF domains do have the largest biases in precipitation during the winter and spring seasons Title: Evaluation of WRF and HadRM Mesoscale Climate Simulations over the U.S. Pacific Northwest Author: Salathé, Eric P., Dulière, Valérie, Zhang, Yongxin, Mote, Philip W. This work compares the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM) simulations with the observed daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and precipitation at Historical Climatology Network (HCN) stations over the U.S. Pacific Northwest for 2003–07. The WRF and HadRM runs were driven by the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (R-2) data. The simulated Tmax in WRF and HadRM as well as in R-2 compares well with the observations. Predominantly cold biases of Tmax are noted in WRF and HadRM in spring and summer, while in winter and fall more stations show warm biases, especially in HadRM. Large cold biases of Tmax are noted in R-2 at all times. The simulated Tmin compares reasonably well with the observations, although not as well as Tmax in both models and in the reanalysis R-2. Warm biases of Tmin prevail in both model simulations, while R-2 shows mainly cold biases. The R-2 data play a role in the model biases of Tmax, although there are also clear indications of resolution dependency. The model biases of Tmin originate mainly from the regional models. The temporal correlation between the simulated and observed daily precipitation is relatively low in both models and in the reanalysis; however, the correlation increases steadily for longer averaging times. The high-resolution models perform better than R-2, although the nested WRF domains do have the largest biases in precipitation during the winter and spring seasons Close

• 4. [Article] Declining mountain snowpack in western North America

  In western North America, snow provides crucial storage of winter precipitation, effectively transferring water from the relatively wet winter season to the typically dry summers. Manual and telemetered ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Declining mountain snowpack in western North America Author: Clark, Martyn P., Lettenmaier, Dennis P., Mote, Philip W., Hamlet, Alan F. In western North America, snow provides crucial storage of winter precipitation, effectively transferring water from the relatively wet winter season to the typically dry summers. Manual and telemetered measurements of spring snow-pack, corroborated by a physically based hydrologic model, are examined here for climate-driven fluctuations and trends during the period of 1916–2002. Much of the mountain West has experienced declines in spring snowpack, especially since midcentury, despite increases in winter precipitation in many places. Analysis and modeling show that climatic trends are the dominant factor, not changes in land use, forest canopy, or other factors. The largest decreases have occurred where winter temperatures are mild, especially in the Cascade Mountains and northern California. In most mountain ranges, relative declines grow from minimal at ridgetop to substantial at snow line. Taken together, these results emphasize that the West's snow resources are already declining as earth's climate warms. Title: Declining mountain snowpack in western North America Author: Clark, Martyn P., Lettenmaier, Dennis P., Mote, Philip W., Hamlet, Alan F. In western North America, snow provides crucial storage of winter precipitation, effectively transferring water from the relatively wet winter season to the typically dry summers. Manual and telemetered measurements of spring snow-pack, corroborated by a physically based hydrologic model, are examined here for climate-driven fluctuations and trends during the period of 1916–2002. Much of the mountain West has experienced declines in spring snowpack, especially since midcentury, despite increases in winter precipitation in many places. Analysis and modeling show that climatic trends are the dominant factor, not changes in land use, forest canopy, or other factors. The largest decreases have occurred where winter temperatures are mild, especially in the Cascade Mountains and northern California. In most mountain ranges, relative declines grow from minimal at ridgetop to substantial at snow line. Taken together, these results emphasize that the West's snow resources are already declining as earth's climate warms. Close

• 5. [Article] Twentieth-Century Trends in Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Moisture in the Western United States

  A physically based hydrology model is used to produce time series for the period 1916–2003 of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and soil moisture (SM) over the western United States from which long-term ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Twentieth-Century Trends in Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Moisture in the Western United States Author: Clark, Martyn P., Lettenmaier, Dennis P., Mote, Philip W., Hamlet, Alan F. A physically based hydrology model is used to produce time series for the period 1916–2003 of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and soil moisture (SM) over the western United States from which long-term trends are evaluated. The results show that trends in ET in spring and summer are determined primarily by trends in precipitation and snowmelt that determine water availability. From April to June, ET trends are mostly positive due primarily to earlier snowmelt and earlier emergence of snow-free ground, and secondarily to increasing trends in spring precipitation. From July to September trends in ET are more strongly influenced by precipitation trends, with the exception of areas (most notably California) that receive little summer precipitation and have experienced large changes in snowmelt timing. Trends in the seasonal timing of ET are modest, but during the period 1947–2003 when temperature trends are large, they reflect a shift of ET from midsummer to early summer and late spring. As in other studies, it is found that runoff is occurring earlier in spring, a trend that is related primarily to increasing temperature, and is most apparent during 1947–2003. Trends in the annual runoff ratio, a variable critical to western water management, are determined primarily by trends in cool season precipitation, rather than changes in the timing of runoff or ET. It was found that the signature of temperature-related trends in runoff and SM is strongly keyed to mean midwinter [December–February (DJF)] temperatures. Areas with warmer winter temperatures show increasing trends in the runoff fraction as early as February, and colder areas as late as June. Trends toward earlier spring SM recharge are apparent and increasing trends in SM on 1 April are evident over much of the region. The 1 July SM trends are less affected by snowmelt changes and are controlled more by precipitation trends. Title: Twentieth-Century Trends in Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Moisture in the Western United States Author: Clark, Martyn P., Lettenmaier, Dennis P., Mote, Philip W., Hamlet, Alan F. A physically based hydrology model is used to produce time series for the period 1916–2003 of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and soil moisture (SM) over the western United States from which long-term trends are evaluated. The results show that trends in ET in spring and summer are determined primarily by trends in precipitation and snowmelt that determine water availability. From April to June, ET trends are mostly positive due primarily to earlier snowmelt and earlier emergence of snow-free ground, and secondarily to increasing trends in spring precipitation. From July to September trends in ET are more strongly influenced by precipitation trends, with the exception of areas (most notably California) that receive little summer precipitation and have experienced large changes in snowmelt timing. Trends in the seasonal timing of ET are modest, but during the period 1947–2003 when temperature trends are large, they reflect a shift of ET from midsummer to early summer and late spring. As in other studies, it is found that runoff is occurring earlier in spring, a trend that is related primarily to increasing temperature, and is most apparent during 1947–2003. Trends in the annual runoff ratio, a variable critical to western water management, are determined primarily by trends in cool season precipitation, rather than changes in the timing of runoff or ET. It was found that the signature of temperature-related trends in runoff and SM is strongly keyed to mean midwinter [December–February (DJF)] temperatures. Areas with warmer winter temperatures show increasing trends in the runoff fraction as early as February, and colder areas as late as June. Trends toward earlier spring SM recharge are apparent and increasing trends in SM on 1 April are evident over much of the region. The 1 July SM trends are less affected by snowmelt changes and are controlled more by precipitation trends. Close

• 6. [Article] Three Recent Flavors of Drought in the Pacific Northwest

  In common with much of the western United States, the Pacific Northwest (defined in this paper as Washington and Oregon) has experienced an unusual number of droughts in the past decade. This paper describes ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Three Recent Flavors of Drought in the Pacific Northwest Author: Bumbaco, Karin A., Mote, Philip W. In common with much of the western United States, the Pacific Northwest (defined in this paper as Washington and Oregon) has experienced an unusual number of droughts in the past decade. This paper describes three of these droughts in terms of the precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture anomalies, and discusses different drought impacts experienced in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). For the first drought, in 2001, low winter precipitation in the PNW produced very low streamflow that primarily affected farmers and hydropower generation. For the second, in 2003, low summer precipitation in Washington (WA), and low summer precipitation and a warm winter in Oregon (OR) primarily affected streamflow and forests. For the last, in 2005, a lack of snowpack due to warm temperatures during significant winter precipitation events in WA, and low winter precipitation in OR, had a variety of different agricultural and hydrologic impacts. Although the proximal causes of droughts are easily quantified, the ultimate causes are not as clear. Better precipitation observations in the PNW are required to provide timely monitoring of conditions leading to droughts to improve prediction in the future Title: Three Recent Flavors of Drought in the Pacific Northwest Author: Bumbaco, Karin A., Mote, Philip W. In common with much of the western United States, the Pacific Northwest (defined in this paper as Washington and Oregon) has experienced an unusual number of droughts in the past decade. This paper describes three of these droughts in terms of the precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture anomalies, and discusses different drought impacts experienced in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). For the first drought, in 2001, low winter precipitation in the PNW produced very low streamflow that primarily affected farmers and hydropower generation. For the second, in 2003, low summer precipitation in Washington (WA), and low summer precipitation and a warm winter in Oregon (OR) primarily affected streamflow and forests. For the last, in 2005, a lack of snowpack due to warm temperatures during significant winter precipitation events in WA, and low winter precipitation in OR, had a variety of different agricultural and hydrologic impacts. Although the proximal causes of droughts are easily quantified, the ultimate causes are not as clear. Better precipitation observations in the PNW are required to provide timely monitoring of conditions leading to droughts to improve prediction in the future Close

• 7. [Article] Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by American Geophysical ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities Author: Vano, Julie A., Kim, John B., Rupp, David E., Mote, Philip W. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by American Geophysical Union and published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. It can be found at: http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/agu/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291944-8007/ Title: Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities Author: Vano, Julie A., Kim, John B., Rupp, David E., Mote, Philip W. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by American Geophysical Union and published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. It can be found at: http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/agu/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291944-8007/ Close

• 8. [Article] Seasonal Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States

  This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the American Meteorological Society and can be found at: http://journals.ametsoc.org/loi/clim.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Seasonal Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States Author: Rupp, David E., Abatzoglou, John T., Mote, Philip W. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the American Meteorological Society and can be found at: http://journals.ametsoc.org/loi/clim. Title: Seasonal Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States Author: Rupp, David E., Abatzoglou, John T., Mote, Philip W. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the American Meteorological Society and can be found at: http://journals.ametsoc.org/loi/clim. Close

• 9. [Article] Assessing the Impacts of Global Warming on Snowpack in the Washington Cascades

  The decrease in mountain snowpack associated with global warming is difficult to estimate in the presence of the large year-to-year natural variability in observations of snow-water equivalent (SWE). A ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing the Impacts of Global Warming on Snowpack in the Washington Cascades Author: Mote, Philip W., Stoelinga, Mark T., Lettenmaier, Dennis P., Casola, Joseph H., Wallace, John M., Cuo, Lan, Livneh, Ben The decrease in mountain snowpack associated with global warming is difficult to estimate in the presence of the large year-to-year natural variability in observations of snow-water equivalent (SWE). A more robust approach for inferring the impacts of global warming is to estimate the temperature sensitivity (λ) of spring snowpack and multiply it by putative past and future temperature rises observed across the Northern Hemisphere. Estimates of λ can be obtained from (i) simple geometric considerations based on the notion that as the seasonal-mean temperature rises by the amount δT, the freezing level and the entire snowpack should rise by the increment δT/Γ, where Γ is the mean lapse rate; (ii) the regression of 1 April SWE measurements upon mean winter temperatures; (iii) a hydrological model forced by daily temperature and precipitation observations; and (iv) the use of inferred accumulated snowfall derived from daily temperature and precipitation data as a proxy for SWE. All four methods yield an estimated sensitivity of 20% of spring snowpack lost per degree Celsius temperature rise. The increase of precipitation accompanying a 1°C warming can be expected to decrease the sensitivity to 16%. Considering observations of temperature rise over the Northern Hemisphere, it is estimated that spring snow-water equivalent in the Cascades portion of the Puget Sound drainage basin should have declined by 8%–16% over the past 30 yr resulting from global warming, and it can be expected to decline by another 11%–21% by 2050. These losses would be statistically undetectable from a trend analysis of the region’s snowpack over the past 30 yr. Title: Assessing the Impacts of Global Warming on Snowpack in the Washington Cascades Author: Mote, Philip W., Stoelinga, Mark T., Lettenmaier, Dennis P., Casola, Joseph H., Wallace, John M., Cuo, Lan, Livneh, Ben The decrease in mountain snowpack associated with global warming is difficult to estimate in the presence of the large year-to-year natural variability in observations of snow-water equivalent (SWE). A more robust approach for inferring the impacts of global warming is to estimate the temperature sensitivity (λ) of spring snowpack and multiply it by putative past and future temperature rises observed across the Northern Hemisphere. Estimates of λ can be obtained from (i) simple geometric considerations based on the notion that as the seasonal-mean temperature rises by the amount δT, the freezing level and the entire snowpack should rise by the increment δT/Γ, where Γ is the mean lapse rate; (ii) the regression of 1 April SWE measurements upon mean winter temperatures; (iii) a hydrological model forced by daily temperature and precipitation observations; and (iv) the use of inferred accumulated snowfall derived from daily temperature and precipitation data as a proxy for SWE. All four methods yield an estimated sensitivity of 20% of spring snowpack lost per degree Celsius temperature rise. The increase of precipitation accompanying a 1°C warming can be expected to decrease the sensitivity to 16%. Considering observations of temperature rise over the Northern Hemisphere, it is estimated that spring snow-water equivalent in the Cascades portion of the Puget Sound drainage basin should have declined by 8%–16% over the past 30 yr resulting from global warming, and it can be expected to decline by another 11%–21% by 2050. These losses would be statistically undetectable from a trend analysis of the region’s snowpack over the past 30 yr. Close

• 10. [Article] Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Mountain Snowpack in Western North America

  Records of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) are examined here using multiple linear regression against reference time series of temperature and precipitation. This method permits 1) an examination of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Mountain Snowpack in Western North America Author: Mote, Philip W. Records of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) are examined here using multiple linear regression against reference time series of temperature and precipitation. This method permits 1) an examination of the separate roles of temperature and precipitation in determining the trends in SWE; 2) an estimation of the sensitivity of SWE to warming trends, and its distribution across western North America and as a function of elevation; and 3) inferences about responses of SWE to future warming. These results emphasize the sensitivity to warming of the mountains of northern California and the Cascades of Oregon and Washington. In addition, the contribution of modes of Pacific climate variability is examined and found to be responsible for about 10%–60% of the trends in SWE, depending on the period of record and climate index. Title: Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Mountain Snowpack in Western North America Author: Mote, Philip W. Records of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) are examined here using multiple linear regression against reference time series of temperature and precipitation. This method permits 1) an examination of the separate roles of temperature and precipitation in determining the trends in SWE; 2) an estimation of the sensitivity of SWE to warming trends, and its distribution across western North America and as a function of elevation; and 3) inferences about responses of SWE to future warming. These results emphasize the sensitivity to warming of the mountains of northern California and the Cascades of Oregon and Washington. In addition, the contribution of modes of Pacific climate variability is examined and found to be responsible for about 10%–60% of the trends in SWE, depending on the period of record and climate index. Close