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• 1. [Article] Grid Based School Enrollment Forecasting

  In this paper we will show how a simple model that is normally based on data for school attendance areas –elementary, middle, and high school, or perhaps planning areas, can be implemented for small grid ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Grid Based School Enrollment Forecasting Author: Lycan, Richard, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2014 In this paper we will show how a simple model that is normally based on data for school attendance areas –elementary, middle, and high school, or perhaps planning areas, can be implemented for small grid areas roughly the size of a city block. Title: Grid Based School Enrollment Forecasting Author: Lycan, Richard, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2014 In this paper we will show how a simple model that is normally based on data for school attendance areas –elementary, middle, and high school, or perhaps planning areas, can be implemented for small grid areas roughly the size of a city block. Close

• 2. [Article] Evaluating Community Analyst for Use in School Demography Studies

  This presentation is a case study based on the North Clackamas School District in the Portland metro area showing how CA might be used and which identifies benefits and issues.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluating Community Analyst for Use in School Demography Studies Author: Lycan, Richard, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 This presentation is a case study based on the North Clackamas School District in the Portland metro area showing how CA might be used and which identifies benefits and issues. Title: Evaluating Community Analyst for Use in School Demography Studies Author: Lycan, Richard, Rynerson, Charles Year: 2013 This presentation is a case study based on the North Clackamas School District in the Portland metro area showing how CA might be used and which identifies benefits and issues. Close

• 3. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments

  The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after the Fall 2008 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2008 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. In Fall 2008, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,024 students in grades K-12, only 59 fewer students than in Fall 2007. This small loss (one tenth of one percent) extends the string of enrollment losses to 12 years, but is unlike the much larger losses of the previous 11 years. This year’s K-12 enrollment should be characterized as essentially stable compared with last year’s. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09, Based on October 2007 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Proehl, Risa, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring 2008, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2007 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after the Fall 2008 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2008 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within sub-areas such as high school clusters. In Fall 2008, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,024 students in grades K-12, only 59 fewer students than in Fall 2007. This small loss (one tenth of one percent) extends the string of enrollment losses to 12 years, but is unlike the much larger losses of the previous 11 years. This year’s K-12 enrollment should be characterized as essentially stable compared with last year’s. Close

• 4. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21, Based on October 2008 Enrollments

  The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2009, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2008 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21, Based on October 2008 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan, Lycan, Richard, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2009, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2008 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after preliminary Fall 2009 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2009 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within subareas such as high school clusters. All 2009-10 enrollment figures are preliminary figures as of October 1, tabulated by the District on November 5, 2009. In Fall 2009, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,747 students in grades K-12, an increase of 723 students from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses and represents the District’s biggest growth since 1992. In each of the previous five years, the medium scenarios characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecasts in reports similar to this one were within 300 students of actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast. This year, K-12 enrollment is about 700 students above the medium scenario prepared in Spring 2009. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2009-10 to 2020-21, Based on October 2008 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Gu, Danan, Lycan, Richard, Radin, Kenneth Year: 2009 The Enrollment Forecasts in this report were prepared in Spring and Summer 2009, based on historic enrollment data from Fall 2008 and previous years. However, the entire report was not ready for publication until after preliminary Fall 2009 enrollment data became available. This preface briefly addresses the district-wide trends observed in Fall 2009 and evaluates the forecasts in the short term. The next report will include more analysis of enrollment trends with respect to area demographics and trends within subareas such as high school clusters. All 2009-10 enrollment figures are preliminary figures as of October 1, tabulated by the District on November 5, 2009. In Fall 2009, Portland Public Schools (PPS) enrolled 45,747 students in grades K-12, an increase of 723 students from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses and represents the District’s biggest growth since 1992. In each of the previous five years, the medium scenarios characterized as the “most likely” Enrollment Forecasts in reports similar to this one were within 300 students of actual K-12 enrollment in the first year of the forecast. This year, K-12 enrollment is about 700 students above the medium scenario prepared in Spring 2009. Close

• 5. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments

  The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08, Based on October 2006 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Proehl, Risa, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, Hough, George C., Jr. Year: 2007 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,446 K-12 students in Fall 2006, a decrease of 676 students (1.5 percent) from Fall 2005. This was the second consecutive year that PPS lost about 700 students, following three years of much steeper losses averaging over 1,500 annually between 2001-02 and 2004-05. Enrollment has fallen in each of the past 10 years, and the 2006-07 K-12 enrollment was 17 percent below its 1996-97 peak of 54,697. About half of the 10 year decline occurred during the 2001-02 to 2004-05 period, when the recession slowed regional employment growth but housing prices continued to rise. This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of new housing development on PPS enrollment, forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 2007-08 to 2020-21 school years and forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school for the years 2007-08 to 2015-16. Close

• 6. [Article] Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31

  The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Close