Search

Search Results

• 1. [Article] Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest

  Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Close

• 2. [Article] Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

  Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John Year: 2014 Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Title: Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John Year: 2014 Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Close

• 3. [Article] Disequilibrium of Fire-prone Forests Sets the Stage for a Rapid Decline in Conifer Dominance during the 21st Century

  As trees are long-lived organisms, the impacts of climate change on forest communities may not be apparent on the time scale of years to decades. While lagged responses to environmental change are common ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Disequilibrium of Fire-prone Forests Sets the Stage for a Rapid Decline in Conifer Dominance during the 21st Century Author: Serra-Diaz, Josep M., Maxwell, Charles, Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Laflower, Danelle M., Miller, Adam D., Tepley, Alan J., Epstein, Howard E., Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J., Thompson, Jonathan R. Year: 2017 As trees are long-lived organisms, the impacts of climate change on forest communities may not be apparent on the time scale of years to decades. While lagged responses to environmental change are common in forested systems, potential for abrupt transitions under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath mountains (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) are currently dominated by carbon rich and hyper-diverse temperate conifer forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability– regeneration and fire tolerance— via shifts in the fire regime in conjunction with lower fitness of conifers under a hotter climate. Understanding how this landscape will respond to near-term climate change (before 2100) is critical for predicting potential climate change feedbacks and to developing sound forest conservation and management plans. Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that 1/3 of the Klamath could transition from conifer forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by an enhanced fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were more prevalent under higher climate change forcing (RCP 8.5) but were also simulated under the climate of 1950-2000, reflecting the joint influences of early warming trends and historical forest legacies. Our results demonstrate that there is a large potential for loss of conifer forest dominance—and associated carbon stocks and biodiversity-- in the Klamath before the end of the century, and that some losses would likely occur even without the influence of climate change. Thus, in the Klamath and other forested landscapes subject to similar feedback dynamics, major ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees. Title: Disequilibrium of Fire-prone Forests Sets the Stage for a Rapid Decline in Conifer Dominance during the 21st Century Author: Serra-Diaz, Josep M., Maxwell, Charles, Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Laflower, Danelle M., Miller, Adam D., Tepley, Alan J., Epstein, Howard E., Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J., Thompson, Jonathan R. Year: 2017 As trees are long-lived organisms, the impacts of climate change on forest communities may not be apparent on the time scale of years to decades. While lagged responses to environmental change are common in forested systems, potential for abrupt transitions under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath mountains (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) are currently dominated by carbon rich and hyper-diverse temperate conifer forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability– regeneration and fire tolerance— via shifts in the fire regime in conjunction with lower fitness of conifers under a hotter climate. Understanding how this landscape will respond to near-term climate change (before 2100) is critical for predicting potential climate change feedbacks and to developing sound forest conservation and management plans. Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that 1/3 of the Klamath could transition from conifer forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by an enhanced fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were more prevalent under higher climate change forcing (RCP 8.5) but were also simulated under the climate of 1950-2000, reflecting the joint influences of early warming trends and historical forest legacies. Our results demonstrate that there is a large potential for loss of conifer forest dominance—and associated carbon stocks and biodiversity-- in the Klamath before the end of the century, and that some losses would likely occur even without the influence of climate change. Thus, in the Klamath and other forested landscapes subject to similar feedback dynamics, major ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees. Close

• 4. [Article] Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

  Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Kretchun, Alec M., Scheller, Robert M., Lucash, Melissa S., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John, Van Tuyl, Steve Year: 2014 Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years. Title: Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Kretchun, Alec M., Scheller, Robert M., Lucash, Melissa S., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John, Van Tuyl, Steve Year: 2014 Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years. Close

• 5. [Article] Multimodel Simulations of Forest Harvesting Effects on Long-Term Productivity and CN Cycling in Aspen Forests

  The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long-term effects of bole-only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Multimodel Simulations of Forest Harvesting Effects on Long-Term Productivity and CN Cycling in Aspen Forests Author: Wang, Fugui, Mladenoff, David J., Forrester, Jodi A., Blanco, Juan A., Scheller, Robert M., Peckham, Scott D., Keough, Cindy, Lucash, Melissa S. Year: 2014 The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long-term effects of bole-only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on stand productivity and interaction of CN cycles with a multiple model approach. Five models, Biome-BGC, CENTURY, FORECAST, LANDIS-II with Century-based soil dynamics, and PnET-CN, were run for 350 years with seven harvesting events on nutrient-poor, sandy soils representing northwestern Wisconsin, USA. Twenty CN state and flux variables were summarized from the models' outputs, and statistically analyzed using ordination and variance analysis methods. The multiple models' averages suggest that bole-only harvest would not significantly affect long-term site productivity of aspen, though declines in soil organic matter and soil N were significant. Along with direct N removal by harvesting, extensive leaching after harvesting before canopy closure was another major cause of N depletion. These five models were notably different in output values of the 20 variables examined, although there were some similarities for certain variables. PnET-CN produced unique results for every variable, and CENTURY showed fewer outliers and similar temporal patterns to the mean of all models. In general, this study demonstrated that when there are no site-specific data for fine-scale calibration and evaluation of a single model, the multiple model approach may be a more robust approach for long-term simulations. In addition, multi-modeling may also improve the calibration and evaluation of an individual model. Title: Multimodel Simulations of Forest Harvesting Effects on Long-Term Productivity and CN Cycling in Aspen Forests Author: Wang, Fugui, Mladenoff, David J., Forrester, Jodi A., Blanco, Juan A., Scheller, Robert M., Peckham, Scott D., Keough, Cindy, Lucash, Melissa S. Year: 2014 The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long-term effects of bole-only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on stand productivity and interaction of CN cycles with a multiple model approach. Five models, Biome-BGC, CENTURY, FORECAST, LANDIS-II with Century-based soil dynamics, and PnET-CN, were run for 350 years with seven harvesting events on nutrient-poor, sandy soils representing northwestern Wisconsin, USA. Twenty CN state and flux variables were summarized from the models' outputs, and statistically analyzed using ordination and variance analysis methods. The multiple models' averages suggest that bole-only harvest would not significantly affect long-term site productivity of aspen, though declines in soil organic matter and soil N were significant. Along with direct N removal by harvesting, extensive leaching after harvesting before canopy closure was another major cause of N depletion. These five models were notably different in output values of the 20 variables examined, although there were some similarities for certain variables. PnET-CN produced unique results for every variable, and CENTURY showed fewer outliers and similar temporal patterns to the mean of all models. In general, this study demonstrated that when there are no site-specific data for fine-scale calibration and evaluation of a single model, the multiple model approach may be a more robust approach for long-term simulations. In addition, multi-modeling may also improve the calibration and evaluation of an individual model. Close

• 6. [Article] How Will Climate Change and Bioenergy Harvest Affect Carbon Storage in the Oregon Coast Range

  This poster shows how the researchers used a simulation model to explore the impacts of varying scenarios of climate change and forest management on the ecosystem carbon.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: How Will Climate Change and Bioenergy Harvest Affect Carbon Storage in the Oregon Coast Range Author: Creutzburg, Megan K., Scheller, Robert M., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Evers, Louisa B., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2014 This poster shows how the researchers used a simulation model to explore the impacts of varying scenarios of climate change and forest management on the ecosystem carbon. Title: How Will Climate Change and Bioenergy Harvest Affect Carbon Storage in the Oregon Coast Range Author: Creutzburg, Megan K., Scheller, Robert M., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Evers, Louisa B., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2014 This poster shows how the researchers used a simulation model to explore the impacts of varying scenarios of climate change and forest management on the ecosystem carbon. Close

• 7. [Article] Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories

  Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories Author: Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Lucash, Melissa S., Hom, John Year: 2012 Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer-term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de-stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration. Title: Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories Author: Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Lucash, Melissa S., Hom, John Year: 2012 Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer-term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de-stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration. Close

• 8. [Article] Bioenergy Harvest, Climate Change, and Forest Carbon in the Oregon Coast Range

  Forests provide important ecological, economic and social services, and recent interest has emerged in the potential for using residue from timber harvest as a source of renewable woody bioenergy. The ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bioenergy Harvest, Climate Change, and Forest Carbon in the Oregon Coast Range Author: Creutzburg, Megan K., Scheller, Robert M., Lucash, Melissa S., Evers, Louisa B., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2016 Forests provide important ecological, economic and social services, and recent interest has emerged in the potential for using residue from timber harvest as a source of renewable woody bioenergy. The long-term consequences of such intensive harvest are unclear, particularly as forests face novel climatic conditions over the next century. We used a simulation model to project the long-term effects of management and climate change on above- and below ground carbon storage in a watershed in northwestern Oregon. The multi-ownership watershed has a diverse range of current management practices, including little-to-no harvesting on federal lands, short-rotation clear-cutting on industrial land, and a mix of practices on private non-industrial land. We simulated multiple management scenarios, varying the rate and intensity of harvest, combined with projections of climate change. Our simulations project a wide range of total ecosystem carbon storage with varying harvest rate, ranging from a 45% increase to a 16% decrease compared to current levels. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy caused an additional 2-3% decrease in ecosystem carbon relative to conventional harvest practices. Soil carbon was relatively insensitive to harvest rotation and intensity, and accumulated slowly regardless of harvest regime. Climate change reduced carbon accumulation in soil and detrital pools due to increasing heterotrophic respiration, and had variable effects on total ecosystem carbon, ranging from a 5% decrease to a 2% increase depending on management scenario. Overall, we conclude that current levels of ecosystem carbon storage are maintained in part due to substantial portions of the landscape (federal and some private lands) remaining unharvested or lightly managed. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy on currently harvested land, however, led to a small reduction in the ability of forests to store carbon. Climate change is unlikely to substantially alter carbon storage in these forests, absent shifts in disturbance regimes. Title: Bioenergy Harvest, Climate Change, and Forest Carbon in the Oregon Coast Range Author: Creutzburg, Megan K., Scheller, Robert M., Lucash, Melissa S., Evers, Louisa B., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2016 Forests provide important ecological, economic and social services, and recent interest has emerged in the potential for using residue from timber harvest as a source of renewable woody bioenergy. The long-term consequences of such intensive harvest are unclear, particularly as forests face novel climatic conditions over the next century. We used a simulation model to project the long-term effects of management and climate change on above- and below ground carbon storage in a watershed in northwestern Oregon. The multi-ownership watershed has a diverse range of current management practices, including little-to-no harvesting on federal lands, short-rotation clear-cutting on industrial land, and a mix of practices on private non-industrial land. We simulated multiple management scenarios, varying the rate and intensity of harvest, combined with projections of climate change. Our simulations project a wide range of total ecosystem carbon storage with varying harvest rate, ranging from a 45% increase to a 16% decrease compared to current levels. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy caused an additional 2-3% decrease in ecosystem carbon relative to conventional harvest practices. Soil carbon was relatively insensitive to harvest rotation and intensity, and accumulated slowly regardless of harvest regime. Climate change reduced carbon accumulation in soil and detrital pools due to increasing heterotrophic respiration, and had variable effects on total ecosystem carbon, ranging from a 5% decrease to a 2% increase depending on management scenario. Overall, we conclude that current levels of ecosystem carbon storage are maintained in part due to substantial portions of the landscape (federal and some private lands) remaining unharvested or lightly managed. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy on currently harvested land, however, led to a small reduction in the ability of forests to store carbon. Climate change is unlikely to substantially alter carbon storage in these forests, absent shifts in disturbance regimes. Close

• 9. [Article] Quantifying Resilience of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in a Temperate Forest Landscape

  Resilience is increasingly being considered as a new paradigm of forest management among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers. However, metrics of resilience to environmental change are lacking. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Quantifying Resilience of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in a Temperate Forest Landscape Author: Cantarello, Elena, Newton, Adrian C., Martin, Phillip A., Evans, Paul M., Gosal, Arjan, Lucash, Melissa S. Year: 2017 Resilience is increasingly being considered as a new paradigm of forest management among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers. However, metrics of resilience to environmental change are lacking. Faced with novel disturbances, forests may be able to sustain existing ecosystem services and biodiversity by exhibiting resilience, or alternatively these attributes may undergo either a linear or nonlinear decline. Here we provide a novel quantitative approach for assessing forest resilience that focuses on three components of resilience, namely resistance, recovery, and net change, using a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. Under the pulse set scenarios, we explored the resilience of nine ecosystem services and four biodiversity measures following a one-off disturbance applied to an increasing percentage of forest area. Under the pulse + press set scenarios, the six disturbance intensities explored during the pulse set were followed by a continuous disturbance. We detected thresholds in net change under pulse + press scenarios for the majority of the ecosystem services and biodiversity measures, which started to decline sharply when disturbance affected >40% of the landscape. Thresholds in net change were not observed under the pulse scenarios, with the exception of timber volume and ground flora species richness. Thresholds were most pronounced for aboveground biomass, timber volume with respect to the ecosystem services, and ectomycorrhizal fungi and ground flora species richness with respect to the biodiversity measures. Synthesis and applications. The approach presented here illustrates how the multidimensionality of stability research in ecology can be addressed and how forest resilience can be estimated in practice. Managers should adopt specific management actions to support each of the three components of resilience separately, as these may respond differently to disturbance. In addition, management interventions aiming to deliver resilience should incorporate an assessment of both pulse and press disturbances to ensure detection of threshold responses to disturbance, so that appropriate management interventions can be identified. Title: Quantifying Resilience of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in a Temperate Forest Landscape Author: Cantarello, Elena, Newton, Adrian C., Martin, Phillip A., Evans, Paul M., Gosal, Arjan, Lucash, Melissa S. Year: 2017 Resilience is increasingly being considered as a new paradigm of forest management among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers. However, metrics of resilience to environmental change are lacking. Faced with novel disturbances, forests may be able to sustain existing ecosystem services and biodiversity by exhibiting resilience, or alternatively these attributes may undergo either a linear or nonlinear decline. Here we provide a novel quantitative approach for assessing forest resilience that focuses on three components of resilience, namely resistance, recovery, and net change, using a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. Under the pulse set scenarios, we explored the resilience of nine ecosystem services and four biodiversity measures following a one-off disturbance applied to an increasing percentage of forest area. Under the pulse + press set scenarios, the six disturbance intensities explored during the pulse set were followed by a continuous disturbance. We detected thresholds in net change under pulse + press scenarios for the majority of the ecosystem services and biodiversity measures, which started to decline sharply when disturbance affected >40% of the landscape. Thresholds in net change were not observed under the pulse scenarios, with the exception of timber volume and ground flora species richness. Thresholds were most pronounced for aboveground biomass, timber volume with respect to the ecosystem services, and ectomycorrhizal fungi and ground flora species richness with respect to the biodiversity measures. Synthesis and applications. The approach presented here illustrates how the multidimensionality of stability research in ecology can be addressed and how forest resilience can be estimated in practice. Managers should adopt specific management actions to support each of the three components of resilience separately, as these may respond differently to disturbance. In addition, management interventions aiming to deliver resilience should incorporate an assessment of both pulse and press disturbances to ensure detection of threshold responses to disturbance, so that appropriate management interventions can be identified. Close

• 10. [Article] Spatial Resilience of Forested Landscapes Under Climate Change and Management

  Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial Resilience of Forested Landscapes Under Climate Change and Management Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Gustafson, Eric J., Sturtevant, Brian R. Year: 2017 Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Objectives: Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota. Methods: Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years. Results: Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience. Title: Spatial Resilience of Forested Landscapes Under Climate Change and Management Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Gustafson, Eric J., Sturtevant, Brian R. Year: 2017 Context: Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change. Objectives: Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota. Methods: Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years. Results: Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience. Close