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• 1. [Article] A Pivot Point? Economic Slow-Down Affects Oregon’s Migration Flow

  The combination of three components: fertility, mortality, and migration, collectively lead to population change. Fertility and mortality events in recent history, including escalated fertility levels ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Pivot Point? Economic Slow-Down Affects Oregon’s Migration Flow Author: Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2011 The combination of three components: fertility, mortality, and migration, collectively lead to population change. Fertility and mortality events in recent history, including escalated fertility levels associated with the ‘baby boom cohort’ and spikes in mortality linked to the Spanish Flu of 1918 for example, have produced demonstrative demographic effects. However, both the unpredictability and ability of migration to produce virtually immediate impacts, often enduring for decades across social, cultural, demographic, and economic landscapes, has long captured the attention of scholars and public policy makers alike. Over the past several decades here in Oregon, migration has undoubtedly shaped the state socially and culturally, but equally pronounced and perhaps more tangible have been the long-term challenges and prospects linked to the reciprocal relationship between migration and economics. Title: A Pivot Point? Economic Slow-Down Affects Oregon’s Migration Flow Author: Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2011 The combination of three components: fertility, mortality, and migration, collectively lead to population change. Fertility and mortality events in recent history, including escalated fertility levels associated with the ‘baby boom cohort’ and spikes in mortality linked to the Spanish Flu of 1918 for example, have produced demonstrative demographic effects. However, both the unpredictability and ability of migration to produce virtually immediate impacts, often enduring for decades across social, cultural, demographic, and economic landscapes, has long captured the attention of scholars and public policy makers alike. Over the past several decades here in Oregon, migration has undoubtedly shaped the state socially and culturally, but equally pronounced and perhaps more tangible have been the long-term challenges and prospects linked to the reciprocal relationship between migration and economics. Close

• 2. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Southern Metros

  In 2012-2014, the South recorded the largest gain of YCE net in-migration, among its large metros, of any region at 138,000. What’s more, the only metros to post NMQ values above 30 were both in the South—Houston ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Southern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In 2012-2014, the South recorded the largest gain of YCE net in-migration, among its large metros, of any region at 138,000. What’s more, the only metros to post NMQ values above 30 were both in the South—Houston (36.9 percent) followed by Austin (35 percent). While most large Southern metros posted robust gains in net in-migration of YCEs between the two periods, Louisville (-18.7 percent), Baltimore, (-9.4 percent), San Antonio (-8.2 percent), Dallas/Ft. Worth (-5.5 percent), and Tampa (-1.5 percent) all recorded NMQ declines in net in-migration of YCEs. Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Southern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In 2012-2014, the South recorded the largest gain of YCE net in-migration, among its large metros, of any region at 138,000. What’s more, the only metros to post NMQ values above 30 were both in the South—Houston (36.9 percent) followed by Austin (35 percent). While most large Southern metros posted robust gains in net in-migration of YCEs between the two periods, Louisville (-18.7 percent), Baltimore, (-9.4 percent), San Antonio (-8.2 percent), Dallas/Ft. Worth (-5.5 percent), and Tampa (-1.5 percent) all recorded NMQ declines in net in-migration of YCEs. Close

• 3. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America - Migration Trends Across the 50 Largest U.S. Metros

  In this brief, we present U.S. Census Bureau data to compare recent migration trends for young and college-educated (YCE) individuals for the largest 50 U.S. metro areas in 2012-2014 relative to the pre-recession ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America - Migration Trends Across the 50 Largest U.S. Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In this brief, we present U.S. Census Bureau data to compare recent migration trends for young and college-educated (YCE) individuals for the largest 50 U.S. metro areas in 2012-2014 relative to the pre-recession (2005-2007) and Great Recession (2008-2010) periods. Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America - Migration Trends Across the 50 Largest U.S. Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In this brief, we present U.S. Census Bureau data to compare recent migration trends for young and college-educated (YCE) individuals for the largest 50 U.S. metro areas in 2012-2014 relative to the pre-recession (2005-2007) and Great Recession (2008-2010) periods. Close

• 4. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Western Metros

  In the West, Seattle recorded the largest NMQ gain of YCEs (31.6 percent), followed by San Francisco (28.5 percent), Portland (26.3 percent), and San Jose (26.1 percent). During the Great Recession, as ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Western Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the West, Seattle recorded the largest NMQ gain of YCEs (31.6 percent), followed by San Francisco (28.5 percent), Portland (26.3 percent), and San Jose (26.1 percent). During the Great Recession, as well as the post-recession recovery period, only four metros outpaced the West’s regional gain in YCE net-migration: 1) Phoenix, 2) Denver, 3) San Francisco, 4) San Jose Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Western Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the West, Seattle recorded the largest NMQ gain of YCEs (31.6 percent), followed by San Francisco (28.5 percent), Portland (26.3 percent), and San Jose (26.1 percent). During the Great Recession, as well as the post-recession recovery period, only four metros outpaced the West’s regional gain in YCE net-migration: 1) Phoenix, 2) Denver, 3) San Francisco, 4) San Jose Close

• 5. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Northeastern Metros

  In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Northeast’s largest metro areas attracted and retained roughly 31,000 YCE migrants. However, this represents 9,000 fewer migrants compared to the Great Recession ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Northeastern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Northeast’s largest metro areas attracted and retained roughly 31,000 YCE migrants. However, this represents 9,000 fewer migrants compared to the Great Recession period— the Northeast is the only region to post a decline in net in/migration of YCEs between 2008-2010 and 2012-2014. All Northeastern metros experienced a decline or a very marginal gain in NMQ values between the two periods, except for Philadelphia, which posted more than a 2,000 gain in net YCE in-migration. In the end however, Boston and Pittsburgh remain the region's two most productive cities for attracting retaining and retaining young, mobile talent. Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Northeastern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Northeast’s largest metro areas attracted and retained roughly 31,000 YCE migrants. However, this represents 9,000 fewer migrants compared to the Great Recession period— the Northeast is the only region to post a decline in net in/migration of YCEs between 2008-2010 and 2012-2014. All Northeastern metros experienced a decline or a very marginal gain in NMQ values between the two periods, except for Philadelphia, which posted more than a 2,000 gain in net YCE in-migration. In the end however, Boston and Pittsburgh remain the region's two most productive cities for attracting retaining and retaining young, mobile talent. Close

• 6. [Article] Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Midwestern Metros

  In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Midwest’s largest metro areas attracted and retained almost 37,000 YCE migrants, which is almost double the number during the Great Recession period. Although ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Midwestern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Midwest’s largest metro areas attracted and retained almost 37,000 YCE migrants, which is almost double the number during the Great Recession period. Although the region’s largest city, Chicago, recorded the largest net in/migration of YCEs (11,033) in 2012-2014, Kansas City recorded the highest NMQ of YCEs (18.6 percent), followed by Columbus, OH (18.5 percent) and Detroit (16.4 percent). Detroit’s turnaround is particularly noteworthy; the Motor City metro posted the second highest change in NMQ values between the two periods (second only to Birmingham). Two metros reported a net out/migration of YCEs, one being Buffalo (-14.5 percent), and the other being Milwaukee (-7.0 percent). Title: Talent on the Move: Migration Patterns of the Young and College-Educated in Pre and Post-Recession America – Migration Trends Across the Largest Midwestern Metros Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2016 In the most recent period, 2012-2014, the Midwest’s largest metro areas attracted and retained almost 37,000 YCE migrants, which is almost double the number during the Great Recession period. Although the region’s largest city, Chicago, recorded the largest net in/migration of YCEs (11,033) in 2012-2014, Kansas City recorded the highest NMQ of YCEs (18.6 percent), followed by Columbus, OH (18.5 percent) and Detroit (16.4 percent). Detroit’s turnaround is particularly noteworthy; the Motor City metro posted the second highest change in NMQ values between the two periods (second only to Birmingham). Two metros reported a net out/migration of YCEs, one being Buffalo (-14.5 percent), and the other being Milwaukee (-7.0 percent). Close

• 7. [Article] Winds of Change? Exploring Climate Change-Driven Migration and Related Impacts in the Pacific Northwest

  Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the Pacific Northwest’s communities, economy, and natural systems. These impacts – which include reductions in summer water supply, the potential ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Winds of Change? Exploring Climate Change-Driven Migration and Related Impacts in the Pacific Northwest Author: Binder, Lara Whitely, Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2016 Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the Pacific Northwest’s communities, economy, and natural systems. These impacts – which include reductions in summer water supply, the potential for more winter flooding and forest fires, threats to public health, and damage to coastal infrastructure due to sea level rise – will require changes in how communities evaluate, manage, and mitigate environmental risks. Despite these challenges, some have suggested that the region may be relatively well off compared to other areas of the U.S. and the world. This has led to growing speculation by the media, bloggers, and the public that “global warming could unleash a deluge of newcomers” (or “climate refugees”) to the Pacific Northwest in coming years.2The question is also gaining the attention of public sector professionals in the region. Planners and managers who engage in long-term planning for transportation, public health, utilities, and other public services want to understand whether population forecasts—an important analytical tool guiding many areas of regional planning—should reflect the possible impacts of climate change on migration flows, and if so, how? The connection between climate change and migration is the subject of a complex and emerging body of social science research. To help stimulate and inform research, and to provide guidance to decision makers on this issue, researchers at Portland State University and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group convened experts in climate science, population dynamics, and public sector management to begin addressing the following central question: Do we need to be planning for more growth in Washington and Oregon because of climate change, and if so, what would a systematic framework for developing and updating migration scenarios for use in regional and state population growth and planning forecasts look like? The symposium—the first of its kind in the region and possibly the first of its kind in the United States—was held on June 24, 2016 at Portland State University. Title: Winds of Change? Exploring Climate Change-Driven Migration and Related Impacts in the Pacific Northwest Author: Binder, Lara Whitely, Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2016 Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the Pacific Northwest’s communities, economy, and natural systems. These impacts – which include reductions in summer water supply, the potential for more winter flooding and forest fires, threats to public health, and damage to coastal infrastructure due to sea level rise – will require changes in how communities evaluate, manage, and mitigate environmental risks. Despite these challenges, some have suggested that the region may be relatively well off compared to other areas of the U.S. and the world. This has led to growing speculation by the media, bloggers, and the public that “global warming could unleash a deluge of newcomers” (or “climate refugees”) to the Pacific Northwest in coming years.2The question is also gaining the attention of public sector professionals in the region. Planners and managers who engage in long-term planning for transportation, public health, utilities, and other public services want to understand whether population forecasts—an important analytical tool guiding many areas of regional planning—should reflect the possible impacts of climate change on migration flows, and if so, how? The connection between climate change and migration is the subject of a complex and emerging body of social science research. To help stimulate and inform research, and to provide guidance to decision makers on this issue, researchers at Portland State University and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group convened experts in climate science, population dynamics, and public sector management to begin addressing the following central question: Do we need to be planning for more growth in Washington and Oregon because of climate change, and if so, what would a systematic framework for developing and updating migration scenarios for use in regional and state population growth and planning forecasts look like? The symposium—the first of its kind in the region and possibly the first of its kind in the United States—was held on June 24, 2016 at Portland State University. Close

• 8. [Article] Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010

  For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Migration Patterns of Portland’s Young and College-Educated, 1980-2010 Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 For many metro areas, including Portland, being economically competitive in today’s knowledge and information economy depends on attracting and retaining young, college-­‐educated (YCE) migrants. On this indicator, Portland has been most successful: since 1980, the Portland metropolitan region has attracted college-­‐educated individuals under the age of 40 at some of the country’s highest net migration rates in good economic times and bad. Though not unique to Portland, the resiliency of Portland’s migration streams, even in periods of economic uncertainty, calls attention to an increasingly selective group of YCE migrants who appear to place greater relative value on non-­‐economic factors—from political milieu to access to quality public transportation—compared to employment opportunities. This trend directly challenges a long-­‐established cornerstone of traditional migration theory suggesting that the decision to move is predicated on benefits exceeding costs, and linked to the importance of jobs and economic opportunity as attractive forces for working-­‐age households. Reading between the lines of recent media accounts, and in particular the television show Portlandia, the shift from economic to non-­‐economic factors has been portrayed in a most interesting way: because young migrants to Portland place relatively low value on work and traditional careers, their desire to exchange employment opportunities for quality of life (amenity) factors indeed makes Portland the city “where young people go to retire.” The question is: in the short and long-­‐term, how sustainable is Portland’s trend of attracting and retaining YCE migrants if labor market outcomes continue to remain worse compared to other metro areas? What are the facts? In this paper we draw upon U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 Census and more recent American Community Surveys from 2005-­‐2007 and 2008-­‐2010, to compare migration patterns in Portland to the other 50 largest U.S. metros. Close

• 9. [Article] Destination Portland: Post-Great Recession Migration Trends in the Rose City Region

  This report explores how individuals decide to move to Portland, why they stay and how the region’s growth challenges might introduce costs that disproportionately burden people of color and young people ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Destination Portland: Post-Great Recession Migration Trends in the Rose City Region Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2017 This report explores how individuals decide to move to Portland, why they stay and how the region’s growth challenges might introduce costs that disproportionately burden people of color and young people of lower socioeconomic status. Title: Destination Portland: Post-Great Recession Migration Trends in the Rose City Region Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg, Kang, Jihye Year: 2017 This report explores how individuals decide to move to Portland, why they stay and how the region’s growth challenges might introduce costs that disproportionately burden people of color and young people of lower socioeconomic status. Close

• 10. [Article] Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated

  Few segments of the population are more critical to Portland’s future economic vitality than the young and college‐educated (YCE). In the last several decades the Portland metropolitan region has become ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 Few segments of the population are more critical to Portland’s future economic vitality than the young and college‐educated (YCE). In the last several decades the Portland metropolitan region has become a magnet for YCEs nationally, boasting one of the country’s highest net migration rates for college‐educated individuals under the age of 40, a trend that has continued in good economic times and bad. The infusion of human capital from other regions has undoubtedly been a benefit to Portland, especially given Oregon’s historically low levels of investment in higher education. However, in recent years there has been growing concern about the poor labor market prospects for Portland’s YCEs, in particular the problem of underemployment. The television show Portlandia has amusingly captured this concern, dubbing the city "the place where young people go to retire." To the extent that Portland’s YCEs face a chronically difficult job market, there is cause for concern that college graduates will stop moving to Portland, or that those who have moved here won’t stay. Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 Few segments of the population are more critical to Portland’s future economic vitality than the young and college‐educated (YCE). In the last several decades the Portland metropolitan region has become a magnet for YCEs nationally, boasting one of the country’s highest net migration rates for college‐educated individuals under the age of 40, a trend that has continued in good economic times and bad. The infusion of human capital from other regions has undoubtedly been a benefit to Portland, especially given Oregon’s historically low levels of investment in higher education. However, in recent years there has been growing concern about the poor labor market prospects for Portland’s YCEs, in particular the problem of underemployment. The television show Portlandia has amusingly captured this concern, dubbing the city "the place where young people go to retire." To the extent that Portland’s YCEs face a chronically difficult job market, there is cause for concern that college graduates will stop moving to Portland, or that those who have moved here won’t stay. Close