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• 1. [Article] The Role of Expectations in Modeling Fishing Fleet Capacity Changes

  The paper analyzes a situation in which the fishing fleet is subject to restrictive regulation regarding the harvest of its primal target species due to biological overfishing that in turn reveals a high ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Role of Expectations in Modeling Fishing Fleet Capacity Changes Author: Hutniczak, Barbara, Vestergaard, Niels The paper analyzes a situation in which the fishing fleet is subject to restrictive regulation regarding the harvest of its primal target species due to biological overfishing that in turn reveals a high level of overcapacity. The goal is to model fishermen’s expectations and likely responses to the government initiated transition to a sustainable fishery. The question the paper aims to answer is: to what degree anticipation of policy change may be delaying the fleet restructuring process. The investigated setting includes direct intervention in the form of a time‐limited buyback program and two scenarios regarding future regulations. In the first, the fishery continues under Individual Vessel Quotas (IVQs). In the second scenario, introduction of Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs) is expected in the near future. Under a rationality assumption, the exit decision depends on the expected sum of discounted profits in comparison with the single buyback payment. The profits in turn depend on expectations regarding the form of the quota that may become a valuable asset in the future. The paper uses a restricted profit function approach. The advantage of the developed model is its flexibility with respect to the multispecies and multigear character of the fishing industry. An application is provided for the Polish trawler fleet targeting primarily cod. Title: The Role of Expectations in Modeling Fishing Fleet Capacity Changes Author: Hutniczak, Barbara, Vestergaard, Niels The paper analyzes a situation in which the fishing fleet is subject to restrictive regulation regarding the harvest of its primal target species due to biological overfishing that in turn reveals a high level of overcapacity. The goal is to model fishermen’s expectations and likely responses to the government initiated transition to a sustainable fishery. The question the paper aims to answer is: to what degree anticipation of policy change may be delaying the fleet restructuring process. The investigated setting includes direct intervention in the form of a time‐limited buyback program and two scenarios regarding future regulations. In the first, the fishery continues under Individual Vessel Quotas (IVQs). In the second scenario, introduction of Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs) is expected in the near future. Under a rationality assumption, the exit decision depends on the expected sum of discounted profits in comparison with the single buyback payment. The profits in turn depend on expectations regarding the form of the quota that may become a valuable asset in the future. The paper uses a restricted profit function approach. The advantage of the developed model is its flexibility with respect to the multispecies and multigear character of the fishing industry. An application is provided for the Polish trawler fleet targeting primarily cod. Close

• 2. [Article] Modeling Heterogeneous Fishing Fleet in an Ecosystem Based Management Context

  Multispecies fisheries pose a considerable management difficulty with respect to quota allocation between species. Externalities of direct control over the harvest may include, among others, creation of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Modeling Heterogeneous Fishing Fleet in an Ecosystem Based Management Context Author: Hutniczak, Barbara Multispecies fisheries pose a considerable management difficulty with respect to quota allocation between species. Externalities of direct control over the harvest may include, among others, creation of unbalanced predator‐prey relationships in the environment. That, in turn, may affect the individual economic incentives of fishing vessels. Combining economic and ecological factors in one model has multiple advantages, whereas there have been little attempts to coordinate setting the total allowable catches in multispecies fisheries, particularly in the context of individual decision‐making process. The objective of this article is to develop a methodological framework for multispecies modeling with integrated ecological and economic realism suitable to evaluate the long term implications of the imposed regulations that can be used for better policy guidance. An empirical application is provided for the central Baltic Sea with its interacting fish community dominated by three species: cod, herring and sprat. The developed model includes three separate, dynamically updating, age‐structured submodels for each species, which are linked through predation. The harvest component is associated with the fishing vessels that optimize individual behavior subject to regulations, owned capital and individual technical efficiency derived with the use of a multiproduct distance function. The findings present a clear picture of asymmetries between vessels with respect to harvest process and reveal the rational harvest strategy that is accommodated in the multispecies simulation model. Title: Modeling Heterogeneous Fishing Fleet in an Ecosystem Based Management Context Author: Hutniczak, Barbara Multispecies fisheries pose a considerable management difficulty with respect to quota allocation between species. Externalities of direct control over the harvest may include, among others, creation of unbalanced predator‐prey relationships in the environment. That, in turn, may affect the individual economic incentives of fishing vessels. Combining economic and ecological factors in one model has multiple advantages, whereas there have been little attempts to coordinate setting the total allowable catches in multispecies fisheries, particularly in the context of individual decision‐making process. The objective of this article is to develop a methodological framework for multispecies modeling with integrated ecological and economic realism suitable to evaluate the long term implications of the imposed regulations that can be used for better policy guidance. An empirical application is provided for the central Baltic Sea with its interacting fish community dominated by three species: cod, herring and sprat. The developed model includes three separate, dynamically updating, age‐structured submodels for each species, which are linked through predation. The harvest component is associated with the fishing vessels that optimize individual behavior subject to regulations, owned capital and individual technical efficiency derived with the use of a multiproduct distance function. The findings present a clear picture of asymmetries between vessels with respect to harvest process and reveal the rational harvest strategy that is accommodated in the multispecies simulation model. Close