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• 1. [Article] Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study : Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps

  FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study : Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps Author: González, Frank I, Geist, Eric L., Synolakis, Costas, Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Jaffe, Bruce, Johnson, Jeff, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Titov, Vasily V., Venturato, Angie J., Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2006 FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study (Chowdhury et al., 2005). Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State Agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. Title: Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study : Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps Author: González, Frank I, Geist, Eric L., Synolakis, Costas, Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Jaffe, Bruce, Johnson, Jeff, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Titov, Vasily V., Venturato, Angie J., Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2006 FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study (Chowdhury et al., 2005). Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State Agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. Close

• 2. [Article] Paleotsunami Inundation of a Beach Ridge Plain: Cobble Ridge Overtopping and Interridge Valley Flooding in Seaside, Oregon, USA

  The Seaside beach ridge plain was inundated by six paleotsunamis during the last ∼2500 years. Large runups (adjusted >10m in height) overtopped seawardmost cobble beach ridges (7m elevation) at ∼1.3 and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Paleotsunami Inundation of a Beach Ridge Plain: Cobble Ridge Overtopping and Interridge Valley Flooding in Seaside, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Jol, Harry M., Horning, Thomas, Cruikshank, Kenneth M. Year: 2010 The Seaside beach ridge plain was inundated by six paleotsunamis during the last ∼2500 years. Large runups (adjusted >10m in height) overtopped seawardmost cobble beach ridges (7m elevation) at ∼1.3 and ∼2.6 ka before present. Smaller paleotsunami (6−8m in height) likely entered the beach plain interior (4-5m elevation) through the paleo-Necanicum bay mouth. The AD 1700 Cascadia paleotsunami had a modest runup (6-7mheight), yet it locally inundated to 1.5 km landward distance. Bed shear stresses (100−3,300 dyne cm−2) are estimated for paleotsunami surges (0.5−2m depths) that flowed down slopes (0.002−0.017 gradient) on the landward side of the cobble beach ridges. Critical entrainment shear stresses of 1,130−1,260 dyne cm−2 were needed to dislodge the largest clasts (26−32 cm diameter) in paleotsunami coulees that were cut (100−200m width) into the landward side of the cobble ridges. Title: Paleotsunami Inundation of a Beach Ridge Plain: Cobble Ridge Overtopping and Interridge Valley Flooding in Seaside, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Jol, Harry M., Horning, Thomas, Cruikshank, Kenneth M. Year: 2010 The Seaside beach ridge plain was inundated by six paleotsunamis during the last ∼2500 years. Large runups (adjusted >10m in height) overtopped seawardmost cobble beach ridges (7m elevation) at ∼1.3 and ∼2.6 ka before present. Smaller paleotsunami (6−8m in height) likely entered the beach plain interior (4-5m elevation) through the paleo-Necanicum bay mouth. The AD 1700 Cascadia paleotsunami had a modest runup (6-7mheight), yet it locally inundated to 1.5 km landward distance. Bed shear stresses (100−3,300 dyne cm−2) are estimated for paleotsunami surges (0.5−2m depths) that flowed down slopes (0.002−0.017 gradient) on the landward side of the cobble beach ridges. Critical entrainment shear stresses of 1,130−1,260 dyne cm−2 were needed to dislodge the largest clasts (26−32 cm diameter) in paleotsunami coulees that were cut (100−200m width) into the landward side of the cobble ridges. Close

• 3. [Article] Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for Near- and Far-Field Seismic Sources

  The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for Near- and Far-Field Seismic Sources Author: González, Frank, Geist, Eric L., Jaffe, Bruce, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Synolakis, Costas, Titov, Vasily V., Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Johnson, Jeff, Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Venturato, Angie, Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2009 The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Title: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for Near- and Far-Field Seismic Sources Author: González, Frank, Geist, Eric L., Jaffe, Bruce, Kânoğlu, Utku, Mofjeld, Harold O., Synolakis, Costas, Titov, Vasily V., Arcas, Diego Rodriguez, Bellomo, Douglas, Carlton, David, Horning, Thomas, Johnson, Jeff, Newman, Jean, Parsons, Thomas, Peters, Robert, Peterson, Curt D., Priest, George, Venturato, Angie, Weber, Joseph, Wong, Florence L., Yalçıner, Ahmet Year: 2009 The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Close