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• 1. [Article] Managing for Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change

  Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Managing for Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua Year: 2014 Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result in species extirpation, a change in forest structure, and a decline in resistance and resilience (i.e., the ability to persist and recover from external perturbations, respectively). In the northern Great Lakes region of North America, an ecotone exists along the boreal-temperate transition zone where large changes in species composition exist across a climate gradient. Increasing temperatures are observed in the more southern landscapes. As climate change is expected to substantially affect mid-continental landscapes, this region is especially vulnerable to climate change. My research assessed the effects of climate change under business as usual (BAU) management as well as alternative management strategies. To do so, I simulated forest change in two landscapes (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan) under three climate change scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions), and four management scenarios (BAU, modified silviculture, expanded reserves, and climate suitable planting) with a spatially-explicit forest simulation model from year 2000 to year 2150. Specifically, I explored how climate change would affect relationships between tree species diversity and productivity (Chapter 2); how expanded reserves and modified silviculture may affect aboveground biomass (AGB) and species diversity (Chapter 3); how climate suitable planting may affect functional diversity, and AGB (Chapter 4); and how alternative management may affect the resistance and resilience of forests to multiple disturbances interacting with climate change (Chapter 5). Under the BAU management scenario, I found that current and low emissions climate scenarios did not affect the relationship between species diversity and productivity; however, under a high emissions climate scenario, a decline in simulated productivity was coupled with a stronger positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Under the high emissions climate scenario, overall productivity declined in both landscapes with specific species declines projected for boreal species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana). Under alternative management scenarios, I simulated a limited ability to increase tree species and functional diversity, AGB, and net primary productivity under climate change. The limits of management were especially apparent under the high emissions climate scenario. In a novel approach to measuring resilience, I plotted the recovery of both initial species composition and AGB to stochastic fire events for each simulation. This approach assessed both a general response (i.e. AGB) with a more specific response (i.e. species composition). My results suggest that climate change will reduce the resilience of northern Great Lake forest AGB and species composition and that management effects will be largely outweighed by the declines expected due to climate change. My results highlight the necessity to consider even more innovative and creative solutions under climate change (e.g., planting species from even further south than I simulated). Title: Managing for Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua Year: 2014 Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result in species extirpation, a change in forest structure, and a decline in resistance and resilience (i.e., the ability to persist and recover from external perturbations, respectively). In the northern Great Lakes region of North America, an ecotone exists along the boreal-temperate transition zone where large changes in species composition exist across a climate gradient. Increasing temperatures are observed in the more southern landscapes. As climate change is expected to substantially affect mid-continental landscapes, this region is especially vulnerable to climate change. My research assessed the effects of climate change under business as usual (BAU) management as well as alternative management strategies. To do so, I simulated forest change in two landscapes (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan) under three climate change scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions), and four management scenarios (BAU, modified silviculture, expanded reserves, and climate suitable planting) with a spatially-explicit forest simulation model from year 2000 to year 2150. Specifically, I explored how climate change would affect relationships between tree species diversity and productivity (Chapter 2); how expanded reserves and modified silviculture may affect aboveground biomass (AGB) and species diversity (Chapter 3); how climate suitable planting may affect functional diversity, and AGB (Chapter 4); and how alternative management may affect the resistance and resilience of forests to multiple disturbances interacting with climate change (Chapter 5). Under the BAU management scenario, I found that current and low emissions climate scenarios did not affect the relationship between species diversity and productivity; however, under a high emissions climate scenario, a decline in simulated productivity was coupled with a stronger positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Under the high emissions climate scenario, overall productivity declined in both landscapes with specific species declines projected for boreal species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and black spruce (Picea mariana). Under alternative management scenarios, I simulated a limited ability to increase tree species and functional diversity, AGB, and net primary productivity under climate change. The limits of management were especially apparent under the high emissions climate scenario. In a novel approach to measuring resilience, I plotted the recovery of both initial species composition and AGB to stochastic fire events for each simulation. This approach assessed both a general response (i.e. AGB) with a more specific response (i.e. species composition). My results suggest that climate change will reduce the resilience of northern Great Lake forest AGB and species composition and that management effects will be largely outweighed by the declines expected due to climate change. My results highlight the necessity to consider even more innovative and creative solutions under climate change (e.g., planting species from even further south than I simulated). Close

• 2. [Article] Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity

  Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Title: Climate Change Effects on Northern Great Lake (USA) Forests: A Case for Preserving Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M., White, Mark A., Handler, Stephen D., Ravenscroft, Catherine Year: 2014 Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity varied across landscapes by soil type, climate, and management. We used a spatially dynamic forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II, to simulate BAU forest management under three climate scenarios (current climate, low emissions, and high emissions) in each landscape. We found a positive relationship between diversity and productivity only under a high emissions future as productivity declined. Within landscapes, climate change simulations resulted in the highest diversity in the coolest climate regions and lowest diversity in the warmest climate region in Minnesota and Michigan, respectively. Simulated productivity declined in both landscapes under the high emissions climate scenario as species such as balsam fir (Abies balsamea) declined in abundance. In the Great Lakes region, a high emissions future may decrease forest productivity creating a more positive relationship between diversity and productivity. Maintaining a diversity of tree species may become increasingly important to maintain the adaptive capacity of forests. Close

• 3. [Article] Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity

  Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Close

• 4. [Article] Measuring and Managing Resistance and Resilience Under Climate Change in Northern Great Lake Forests (USA)

  Context: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Measuring and Managing Resistance and Resilience Under Climate Change in Northern Great Lake Forests (USA) Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Context: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to acute disturbances. The capacity for forests to persist and/or adapt to climate change remains largely unknown, in part because there is not broad agreement how to measure and apply resilience concepts. Objectives: We assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and alternative management of northern Great Lake forests. Methods: We simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate futures (current climate, a low emissions trajectory, and a high emissions trajectory), and four management regimes [business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting (CSP)]. We simulated each scenario with a forest landscape simulation model. We assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. We assessed resilience and calculated an index of resilience that incorporated both recovery of pre-fire tree species composition and aboveground biomass within simulated burned areas. Results: Results indicate a positive relationship between diversity and resistance within low diversity areas. Simulations of the high emission climate future resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience. Conclusions: Of the management regimes, the CSP regime resulted in some of the greatest resilience under climate change although our results suggest that differences in forest management are largely outweighed by the effects of climate change. Our results provide a framework for assessing resistance and resilience relevant and valuable to a broad array of ecological systems. Title: Measuring and Managing Resistance and Resilience Under Climate Change in Northern Great Lake Forests (USA) Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2016 Context: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to acute disturbances. The capacity for forests to persist and/or adapt to climate change remains largely unknown, in part because there is not broad agreement how to measure and apply resilience concepts. Objectives: We assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and alternative management of northern Great Lake forests. Methods: We simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate futures (current climate, a low emissions trajectory, and a high emissions trajectory), and four management regimes [business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting (CSP)]. We simulated each scenario with a forest landscape simulation model. We assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. We assessed resilience and calculated an index of resilience that incorporated both recovery of pre-fire tree species composition and aboveground biomass within simulated burned areas. Results: Results indicate a positive relationship between diversity and resistance within low diversity areas. Simulations of the high emission climate future resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience. Conclusions: Of the management regimes, the CSP regime resulted in some of the greatest resilience under climate change although our results suggest that differences in forest management are largely outweighed by the effects of climate change. Our results provide a framework for assessing resistance and resilience relevant and valuable to a broad array of ecological systems. Close