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• 1. [Article] Interview with Robert Costanza, Institute for Sustainable Solutions, 2011 (audio)

  Interview of Dr. Robert Costanza by Noah Sharpsteen at Portland State University on February 22nd, 2011. The interview index is available for download.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Interview with Robert Costanza, Institute for Sustainable Solutions, 2011 (audio) Author: Costanza, Robert Year: 2011 Interview of Dr. Robert Costanza by Noah Sharpsteen at Portland State University on February 22nd, 2011. The interview index is available for download. Title: Interview with Robert Costanza, Institute for Sustainable Solutions, 2011 (audio) Author: Costanza, Robert Year: 2011 Interview of Dr. Robert Costanza by Noah Sharpsteen at Portland State University on February 22nd, 2011. The interview index is available for download. Close

• 2. [Article] Valuing New Jersey's Natural Capital: An Assessment of the Economic Value of the State's Natural Resources

  This report is divided into three main parts. Part I presents essential background information, summarizes the detailed findings of Parts II and III and their limitations, and explores in a preliminary ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Valuing New Jersey's Natural Capital: An Assessment of the Economic Value of the State's Natural Resources Author: Costanza, Robert Year: 2007 This report is divided into three main parts. Part I presents essential background information, summarizes the detailed findings of Parts II and III and their limitations, and explores in a preliminary way the policy implications of the natural capital project and the future research needs in this area. Part II focuses on ecosystem services and Part III deals with ecosystem goods. Title: Valuing New Jersey's Natural Capital: An Assessment of the Economic Value of the State's Natural Resources Author: Costanza, Robert Year: 2007 This report is divided into three main parts. Part I presents essential background information, summarizes the detailed findings of Parts II and III and their limitations, and explores in a preliminary way the policy implications of the natural capital project and the future research needs in this area. Part II focuses on ecosystem services and Part III deals with ecosystem goods. Close

• 3. [Article] Planning Approaches for Water Resources Development in the Lower Mekong Basin

  Governments in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) face decisions that involve trade-offs between, for example, the economic benefits from hydropower generation and potentially irreversible negative impacts on ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Planning Approaches for Water Resources Development in the Lower Mekong Basin Author: Costanza, Robert, Kubiszewski, Ida, Paquet, Peter, King, Jeffrey, Halimi, Shpresa, Sanguanngoi, Hansa, Bach, Nguyen Luong, Frankel, Richard, Ganaseni, Jiragorn, Intralawan, Apisom, Morell, David Year: 2011 Governments in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) face decisions that involve trade-offs between, for example, the economic benefits from hydropower generation and potentially irreversible negative impacts on the ecosystems that provide livelihoods and food security to the rural poor. These decisions involve complex problems that are both poorly understood in scientific terms and subject to rapid, potentially catastrophic change over time. A comprehensive, whole systems approach that adequately addresses the risks and uncertainties involved is necessary, but this is a daunting challenge for researchers, decision makers, and managers. They must develop the capacity to plan, coordinate, and implement a program that improves sustainable societal well-being across national boundaries in the face of these uncertainties, which include impacts on native capture fisheries, biodiversity, wetlands and other biological resources, ecosystem services (i.e., the ecological characteristics, functions, or processes that directly or indirectly contribute to human well-being), and indigenous cultures and ways of life. Title: Planning Approaches for Water Resources Development in the Lower Mekong Basin Author: Costanza, Robert, Kubiszewski, Ida, Paquet, Peter, King, Jeffrey, Halimi, Shpresa, Sanguanngoi, Hansa, Bach, Nguyen Luong, Frankel, Richard, Ganaseni, Jiragorn, Intralawan, Apisom, Morell, David Year: 2011 Governments in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) face decisions that involve trade-offs between, for example, the economic benefits from hydropower generation and potentially irreversible negative impacts on the ecosystems that provide livelihoods and food security to the rural poor. These decisions involve complex problems that are both poorly understood in scientific terms and subject to rapid, potentially catastrophic change over time. A comprehensive, whole systems approach that adequately addresses the risks and uncertainties involved is necessary, but this is a daunting challenge for researchers, decision makers, and managers. They must develop the capacity to plan, coordinate, and implement a program that improves sustainable societal well-being across national boundaries in the face of these uncertainties, which include impacts on native capture fisheries, biodiversity, wetlands and other biological resources, ecosystem services (i.e., the ecological characteristics, functions, or processes that directly or indirectly contribute to human well-being), and indigenous cultures and ways of life. Close

• 4. [Article] Toward a new sustainable economy

  The current financial meltdown is the result of under-regulated markets built on an ideology of free market capitalism and unlimited economic growth. The fundamental problem is that the underlying assumptions ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Toward a new sustainable economy Author: Costanza, Robert Year: 2009 The current financial meltdown is the result of under-regulated markets built on an ideology of free market capitalism and unlimited economic growth. The fundamental problem is that the underlying assumptions of this ideology are not consistent with what we now know about the real state of the world. The financial world is, in essence, a set of markers for goods, services, and risks in the real world and when those markers are allowed to deviate too far from reality, ?adjustments? must ultimately follow and crisis and panic can ensue. To solve this and future financial crisis requires that we reconnect the markers with reality. What are our real assets and how valuable are they? To do this requires both a new vision of what the economy is and what it is for, proper and comprehensive accounting of real assets, and new institutions that use the market in its proper role of servant rather than master. Title: Toward a new sustainable economy Author: Costanza, Robert Year: 2009 The current financial meltdown is the result of under-regulated markets built on an ideology of free market capitalism and unlimited economic growth. The fundamental problem is that the underlying assumptions of this ideology are not consistent with what we now know about the real state of the world. The financial world is, in essence, a set of markers for goods, services, and risks in the real world and when those markers are allowed to deviate too far from reality, ?adjustments? must ultimately follow and crisis and panic can ensue. To solve this and future financial crisis requires that we reconnect the markers with reality. What are our real assets and how valuable are they? To do this requires both a new vision of what the economy is and what it is for, proper and comprehensive accounting of real assets, and new institutions that use the market in its proper role of servant rather than master. Close

• 5. [Article] Global Conservation of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

  Habitat destruction has driven much of the current biodiversity extinction crisis, and it compromises the essential benefits, or ecosystem services, that humans derive from functioning ecosystems. Securing ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Global Conservation of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Author: Turner, Will R., Brandon, Katrina, Brooks, Thomas M., Costanza, Robert Year: 2007 Habitat destruction has driven much of the current biodiversity extinction crisis, and it compromises the essential benefits, or ecosystem services, that humans derive from functioning ecosystems. Securing both species and ecosystem services might be accomplished with common solutions. Yet it is unknown whether these two major conservation objectives coincide broadly enough worldwide to enable global strategies for both goals to gain synergy. In this article, we assess the concordance between these two objectives, explore how the concordance varies across different regions, and examine the global potential for safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem services simultaneously. We find that published global priority maps for biodiversity conservation harbor a disproportionate share of estimated terrestrial ecosystem service value (ESV). Overlap of biodiversity priorities and ESV varies among regions, and in areas that have high biodiversity priority but low ESV, specialized conservation approaches are necessary. Overall, however, our findings suggest opportunities for safeguarding both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Sensitivity analyses indicate that results are robust to known limitations of available ESV data. Capitalizing on these opportunities will require the identification of synergies at fine scales, and the development of economic and policy tools to exploit them. Title: Global Conservation of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Author: Turner, Will R., Brandon, Katrina, Brooks, Thomas M., Costanza, Robert Year: 2007 Habitat destruction has driven much of the current biodiversity extinction crisis, and it compromises the essential benefits, or ecosystem services, that humans derive from functioning ecosystems. Securing both species and ecosystem services might be accomplished with common solutions. Yet it is unknown whether these two major conservation objectives coincide broadly enough worldwide to enable global strategies for both goals to gain synergy. In this article, we assess the concordance between these two objectives, explore how the concordance varies across different regions, and examine the global potential for safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem services simultaneously. We find that published global priority maps for biodiversity conservation harbor a disproportionate share of estimated terrestrial ecosystem service value (ESV). Overlap of biodiversity priorities and ESV varies among regions, and in areas that have high biodiversity priority but low ESV, specialized conservation approaches are necessary. Overall, however, our findings suggest opportunities for safeguarding both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Sensitivity analyses indicate that results are robust to known limitations of available ESV data. Capitalizing on these opportunities will require the identification of synergies at fine scales, and the development of economic and policy tools to exploit them. Close

• 6. [Article] Ecological economics: reintegrating the study of humans and nature

  Ecological economics is a transdisciplinary effort to link the natural and social sciences broadly, and especially ecology and economics. The goal is to develop a deeper understanding of the complex linkages ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Ecological economics: reintegrating the study of humans and nature Author: Costanza, Robert Year: 1996 Ecological economics is a transdisciplinary effort to link the natural and social sciences broadly, and especially ecology and economics. The goal is to develop a deeper understanding of the complex linkages between ecological and economic systems, and to use that understanding to develop effective policies that will lead to a world that is ecologically sustainable, has a fair distribution of resources (both among groups and generations of humans and between humans and other species), and efficiently allocates scarce resources including natural capital. This will require new approaches that are comprehensive, adaptive, integrative, multi-scale, and pluralistic, and that acknowledge the huge uncertainties involved. Examples of integrated assessment and modeling studies at local, regional, and global scales are discussed as cases that both require and force the integration of ecology and economics and help to build common understanding of linked ecological-economic systems. Title: Ecological economics: reintegrating the study of humans and nature Author: Costanza, Robert Year: 1996 Ecological economics is a transdisciplinary effort to link the natural and social sciences broadly, and especially ecology and economics. The goal is to develop a deeper understanding of the complex linkages between ecological and economic systems, and to use that understanding to develop effective policies that will lead to a world that is ecologically sustainable, has a fair distribution of resources (both among groups and generations of humans and between humans and other species), and efficiently allocates scarce resources including natural capital. This will require new approaches that are comprehensive, adaptive, integrative, multi-scale, and pluralistic, and that acknowledge the huge uncertainties involved. Examples of integrated assessment and modeling studies at local, regional, and global scales are discussed as cases that both require and force the integration of ecology and economics and help to build common understanding of linked ecological-economic systems. Close

• 7. [Article] Developing an Integrated History and future of People on Earth (IHOPE)

  The Integrated History and future of People of Earth (IHOPE) initiative is a global network of researchers and research projects with its International Program Office (IPO) now based at the Stockholm Resilience ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Developing an Integrated History and future of People on Earth (IHOPE) Author: Costanza, Robert, Kubiszewski, Ida, Heckbert, Scott, Hibbard, Kathy A., Van der Leeuw, Sander, Aulenbach, Steve, Brewer, Simon, Burek, Michael, Cornell, Sarah, Crumley, Carole L., Graumlich, Lisa J., Hegmon, Michelle, Jackson, Stephen T., Sinclair, Paul, Sörlin, Sverker, Steffen, W. L., Folke, Carl, Dearing, J. A., Scarborough, Vernon Year: 2012 The Integrated History and future of People of Earth (IHOPE) initiative is a global network of researchers and research projects with its International Program Office (IPO) now based at the Stockholm Resilience Center (SRC), Upsalla University, Arizona State University, Portland State University, and the Australian National University. Research linked to IHOPE demonstrates that Earth system changes in the past have been strongly associated with changes in the coupled human-environment system. IHOPE supports integrating knowledge and resources from the biophysical and the social sciences and the humanities to address analytical and interpretive issues associated with coupled human-earth system dynamics. This integration of human history and Earth system history is a timely and important task. Until recently, however, there have been few attempts at such integration. IHOPE will create frameworks that can be used to help achieve this integration. The overarching goal is to produce a rich understanding of the relationships between environmental and human processes over the past millennia. IHOPE recognizes that one major challenge for reaching this goal is developing ?workable? terminology that can be accepted by scholars of all disciplines. The specific objectives for IHOPE are to identify slow and rapidly moving features of complex social-ecological systems, on local to continental spatial scales, which induce resilience, stress, or collapse in linked systems of humans in nature. These objectives will be reached by exploring innovative ways of conducting inter and transdisciplinary science, including theory, case studies, and integrated modeling. Examples of projects underway to implement this initiative are briefly discussed. Title: Developing an Integrated History and future of People on Earth (IHOPE) Author: Costanza, Robert, Kubiszewski, Ida, Heckbert, Scott, Hibbard, Kathy A., Van der Leeuw, Sander, Aulenbach, Steve, Brewer, Simon, Burek, Michael, Cornell, Sarah, Crumley, Carole L., Graumlich, Lisa J., Hegmon, Michelle, Jackson, Stephen T., Sinclair, Paul, Sörlin, Sverker, Steffen, W. L., Folke, Carl, Dearing, J. A., Scarborough, Vernon Year: 2012 The Integrated History and future of People of Earth (IHOPE) initiative is a global network of researchers and research projects with its International Program Office (IPO) now based at the Stockholm Resilience Center (SRC), Upsalla University, Arizona State University, Portland State University, and the Australian National University. Research linked to IHOPE demonstrates that Earth system changes in the past have been strongly associated with changes in the coupled human-environment system. IHOPE supports integrating knowledge and resources from the biophysical and the social sciences and the humanities to address analytical and interpretive issues associated with coupled human-earth system dynamics. This integration of human history and Earth system history is a timely and important task. Until recently, however, there have been few attempts at such integration. IHOPE will create frameworks that can be used to help achieve this integration. The overarching goal is to produce a rich understanding of the relationships between environmental and human processes over the past millennia. IHOPE recognizes that one major challenge for reaching this goal is developing ?workable? terminology that can be accepted by scholars of all disciplines. The specific objectives for IHOPE are to identify slow and rapidly moving features of complex social-ecological systems, on local to continental spatial scales, which induce resilience, stress, or collapse in linked systems of humans in nature. These objectives will be reached by exploring innovative ways of conducting inter and transdisciplinary science, including theory, case studies, and integrated modeling. Examples of projects underway to implement this initiative are briefly discussed. Close

• 8. [Article] Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

  Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity Author: Rockström, Johan, Steffen, W. L., Noone, Kevin, Persson, Åsa, Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Lambin, Eric, Lenton, Timothy M., Scheffer, Marten, Folke, Carl, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Nykvist, Björn, de Wit, Cynthia A., Hughes, Terry, van der Leeuw, Sander, Rodhe, Henning, Sörlin, Sverker, Snyder, Peter K., Costanza, Robert, Svedin, Uno, Falkenmark, Malin, Karlberg, Louise, Corell, Robert W., Fabry, Victoria J., Hansen, James, Walker, Brian, Liverman, Diana, Richardson, Katherine, Crutzen, Paul, Foley, Jonathan Year: 2009 Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere /or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social - ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of “planetary boundaries” lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the “planetary playing field” for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale. Title: Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity Author: Rockström, Johan, Steffen, W. L., Noone, Kevin, Persson, Åsa, Chapin, F. Stuart, III, Lambin, Eric, Lenton, Timothy M., Scheffer, Marten, Folke, Carl, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Nykvist, Björn, de Wit, Cynthia A., Hughes, Terry, van der Leeuw, Sander, Rodhe, Henning, Sörlin, Sverker, Snyder, Peter K., Costanza, Robert, Svedin, Uno, Falkenmark, Malin, Karlberg, Louise, Corell, Robert W., Fabry, Victoria J., Hansen, James, Walker, Brian, Liverman, Diana, Richardson, Katherine, Crutzen, Paul, Foley, Jonathan Year: 2009 Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere /or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social - ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of “planetary boundaries” lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the “planetary playing field” for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale. Close

• 9. [Article] DR7a: Changes in ecosystem services and migration in low-lying coastal areas over the next 50 years

  This paper examines the history and current status of ecosystem services in low-lying coastal areas (LLCAs), their potential changes because of wider environmental and social shifts, and the potential ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: DR7a: Changes in ecosystem services and migration in low-lying coastal areas over the next 50 years Author: Costanza, Robert, Kubiszewski, Ida, Roman, Joe, Sutton, Paul Year: 2011 This paper examines the history and current status of ecosystem services in low-lying coastal areas (LLCAs), their potential changes because of wider environmental and social shifts, and the potential impacts of these changes on human migration. We synthesised information from a number of sources on the status and value of ecosystem services in LLCAs, including information about key ecosystems that are likely to be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. We created maps of ecosystem and human population changes in LLCAs and then estimated changes in ecosystem services. Estimating the impacts of these potential changes depends on the future scenario one assumes. For our analysis four scenarios were developed for future ecosystem and ecosystem services conditions in 2060, based on the four SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios with additional reference to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Great Transition Initiative scenarios. The two axes of the SRES scenarios are global vs. regional and material economy vs. environment foci. This allowed an assessment of the plausible range of future uncertainty about ecosystem services in LLCAs and the potential for changes in ecosystem services to drive human migration. Major findings include: ? Coastal ecosystems are among the most productive on the planet. They provide more than 70% of total global ecosystem services. ? At the same time, these systems are the most threatened by climate change, human settlement and potential coastward migration. ? In the mid-1990s, approximately 25 million people were forced to leave their homelands owing to the inability to secure a livelihood as ecosystem services declined (Myers and Kent, 2009). ? In the coming decades, one estimate puts the number at 240?525 million people globally who may feel impelled to migrate because of loss of ecosystem services (Myers and Kent, 2009). ? Risk factors for coastal populations include over-exploitation of resources, including fisheries; destruction of mangroves, wetlands, and other natural infrastructure; increased storm activity; and reduced resilience to environmental perturbations. ? Coastward population migration is largest in the globalised scenarios because of increased ease of migration in a more globalised world. ? Coastal ecosystem services decline in the material economy-focused SRES scenarios but potentially increase in the environment-focused SRES scenarios, leading to higher overall quality of life. Policies should aim to preserve and restore coastal habitats. This leads to higher and more stable coastal ecosystem services and human quality of life, along with lower vulnerability to migration pressures. Additional research and integrated modelling are needed, however, to better understand the spatial dynamics of human migration and its dependence on ecosystem services. Such models could also help illuminate the transition pathways and policies necessary to achieve the preferred future scenarios. Title: DR7a: Changes in ecosystem services and migration in low-lying coastal areas over the next 50 years Author: Costanza, Robert, Kubiszewski, Ida, Roman, Joe, Sutton, Paul Year: 2011 This paper examines the history and current status of ecosystem services in low-lying coastal areas (LLCAs), their potential changes because of wider environmental and social shifts, and the potential impacts of these changes on human migration. We synthesised information from a number of sources on the status and value of ecosystem services in LLCAs, including information about key ecosystems that are likely to be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. We created maps of ecosystem and human population changes in LLCAs and then estimated changes in ecosystem services. Estimating the impacts of these potential changes depends on the future scenario one assumes. For our analysis four scenarios were developed for future ecosystem and ecosystem services conditions in 2060, based on the four SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios with additional reference to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Great Transition Initiative scenarios. The two axes of the SRES scenarios are global vs. regional and material economy vs. environment foci. This allowed an assessment of the plausible range of future uncertainty about ecosystem services in LLCAs and the potential for changes in ecosystem services to drive human migration. Major findings include: ? Coastal ecosystems are among the most productive on the planet. They provide more than 70% of total global ecosystem services. ? At the same time, these systems are the most threatened by climate change, human settlement and potential coastward migration. ? In the mid-1990s, approximately 25 million people were forced to leave their homelands owing to the inability to secure a livelihood as ecosystem services declined (Myers and Kent, 2009). ? In the coming decades, one estimate puts the number at 240?525 million people globally who may feel impelled to migrate because of loss of ecosystem services (Myers and Kent, 2009). ? Risk factors for coastal populations include over-exploitation of resources, including fisheries; destruction of mangroves, wetlands, and other natural infrastructure; increased storm activity; and reduced resilience to environmental perturbations. ? Coastward population migration is largest in the globalised scenarios because of increased ease of migration in a more globalised world. ? Coastal ecosystem services decline in the material economy-focused SRES scenarios but potentially increase in the environment-focused SRES scenarios, leading to higher overall quality of life. Policies should aim to preserve and restore coastal habitats. This leads to higher and more stable coastal ecosystem services and human quality of life, along with lower vulnerability to migration pressures. Additional research and integrated modelling are needed, however, to better understand the spatial dynamics of human migration and its dependence on ecosystem services. Such models could also help illuminate the transition pathways and policies necessary to achieve the preferred future scenarios. Close