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• 1. [Article] Climate Change and Shifts in Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins

  Water related ecosystem services (WES), such as flow regulation, drinking water supply, temperature regulation, and water recreational activities, are affected by anthropogenic climate change. Forecasting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change and Shifts in Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins Author: Chang, Heejun, Anthony, Terrance, Ennaanay, Driss, Sharma, Manu Year: 2011 Water related ecosystem services (WES), such as flow regulation, drinking water supply, temperature regulation, and water recreational activities, are affected by anthropogenic climate change. Forecasting potential shifts in such WES is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. We quantified the levels and values of WES under multiple climate change scenarios in the two watersheds located in the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon, USA using the combination of a hydrologic model Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Non-point Sources - Soil and Water Assessment Tool (BASINS-SWAT) and an ecosystem evaluation model ? Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s AR4 climate change simulation results, we found that there is a slight relative increase in annual water yield, sediment yield, and dissolved phosphorus, but storm peak management does not change substantially by the 2050s. Spatial analysis shows that the locations of hot and cold spots remain relatively stable. It is also shown that there are high spatial and temporal uncertainties associated with climate change projections due to variations in precipitation projections toward the middle of the 21st century. The findings of our study provide useful information for water and land managers in identifying target areas for conservation to best sustain WES provision, use, and value under a range of climate change scenarios. Title: Climate Change and Shifts in Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins Author: Chang, Heejun, Anthony, Terrance, Ennaanay, Driss, Sharma, Manu Year: 2011 Water related ecosystem services (WES), such as flow regulation, drinking water supply, temperature regulation, and water recreational activities, are affected by anthropogenic climate change. Forecasting potential shifts in such WES is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. We quantified the levels and values of WES under multiple climate change scenarios in the two watersheds located in the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon, USA using the combination of a hydrologic model Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Non-point Sources - Soil and Water Assessment Tool (BASINS-SWAT) and an ecosystem evaluation model ? Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s AR4 climate change simulation results, we found that there is a slight relative increase in annual water yield, sediment yield, and dissolved phosphorus, but storm peak management does not change substantially by the 2050s. Spatial analysis shows that the locations of hot and cold spots remain relatively stable. It is also shown that there are high spatial and temporal uncertainties associated with climate change projections due to variations in precipitation projections toward the middle of the 21st century. The findings of our study provide useful information for water and land managers in identifying target areas for conservation to best sustain WES provision, use, and value under a range of climate change scenarios. Close

• 2. [Article] Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change

  This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-Won, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Melgoza, Rolando, Ruelas, David, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2011 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the period 1988-2006, and simulated for determining the probability of floods from 2020-2049. We surveyed stream cross sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined floodwater surface elevations using the HEC-RAS model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year floodwater surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. While vehicle miles traveled were not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle-hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Results indicate that any cost analysis is extremely sensitive to the occurrence of human fatalities or injuries and fairly insensitive to delay costs. In addition, this research presents a comprehensive classification of flooding costs, identifies preventative measures, and makes short- and long-term recommendations. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment, and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Title: Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-Won, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Melgoza, Rolando, Ruelas, David, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2011 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the period 1988-2006, and simulated for determining the probability of floods from 2020-2049. We surveyed stream cross sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined floodwater surface elevations using the HEC-RAS model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year floodwater surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. While vehicle miles traveled were not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle-hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Results indicate that any cost analysis is extremely sensitive to the occurrence of human fatalities or injuries and fairly insensitive to delay costs. In addition, this research presents a comprehensive classification of flooding costs, identifies preventative measures, and makes short- and long-term recommendations. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment, and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Close

• 3. [Article] Assessment of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes River Basin, Central Oregon

  Effects of climate change in the Cascade Range will likely include more rain, less snow, and earlier snowmelt in the Cascade Range as compared to present conditions. These changes, in turn, will affect ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessment of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes River Basin, Central Oregon Author: Chang, Heejun, Waibel, M. Scott, Gannett, Marshall W., Hulbe, Christina L. Year: 2011 Effects of climate change in the Cascade Range will likely include more rain, less snow, and earlier snowmelt in the Cascade Range as compared to present conditions. These changes, in turn, will affect the timing of runoff, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to spring-fed streams. This hydrologic response needs to be examined and understood due to implications for water management. In this study, a water- and energy-balance model was used to explore 21st century changes in the water budget in the upper Deschutes Basin, and a groundwater model was used to evaluate the response of the groundwater system to those changes. A Deep Percolation Model (DPM) developed for the basin in the 1990s uses spatially distributed climate data to calculate a daily mass balance for the major components of the hydrologic budget. For this work, we drove the DPM using ensemble means of eight downscaled global climate models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Although similar for both scenarios, greater changes in the timing of runoff and recharge as well as higher reductions in snowpack occur using the A1B scenario. Considering both scenarios, diminished snowpack results in reductions in spring runoff ranging from 40% to 63% and recharge from 21% to 37%. These reductions are offset by late fall and winter increases. Also, spatial changes in the mean annual ratio of recharge to runoff occur due to changes in soil infiltration rates. The modeled response of the groundwater system to changes in the time and amount of recharge varies spatially. Short flow-path systems in the upper part of the basin are most sensitive to change in seasonality of recharge. At regional scales, diffusion along groundwater flow paths partially attenuates the effects of changes in recharge timing. Furthermore, slight increases in total annual groundwater discharge to smaller streams in the upper portion of the basin, and slight decreases in discharge to larger stream systems in the north-central portion of the basin are projected. Title: Assessment of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes River Basin, Central Oregon Author: Chang, Heejun, Waibel, M. Scott, Gannett, Marshall W., Hulbe, Christina L. Year: 2011 Effects of climate change in the Cascade Range will likely include more rain, less snow, and earlier snowmelt in the Cascade Range as compared to present conditions. These changes, in turn, will affect the timing of runoff, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to spring-fed streams. This hydrologic response needs to be examined and understood due to implications for water management. In this study, a water- and energy-balance model was used to explore 21st century changes in the water budget in the upper Deschutes Basin, and a groundwater model was used to evaluate the response of the groundwater system to those changes. A Deep Percolation Model (DPM) developed for the basin in the 1990s uses spatially distributed climate data to calculate a daily mass balance for the major components of the hydrologic budget. For this work, we drove the DPM using ensemble means of eight downscaled global climate models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Although similar for both scenarios, greater changes in the timing of runoff and recharge as well as higher reductions in snowpack occur using the A1B scenario. Considering both scenarios, diminished snowpack results in reductions in spring runoff ranging from 40% to 63% and recharge from 21% to 37%. These reductions are offset by late fall and winter increases. Also, spatial changes in the mean annual ratio of recharge to runoff occur due to changes in soil infiltration rates. The modeled response of the groundwater system to changes in the time and amount of recharge varies spatially. Short flow-path systems in the upper part of the basin are most sensitive to change in seasonality of recharge. At regional scales, diffusion along groundwater flow paths partially attenuates the effects of changes in recharge timing. Furthermore, slight increases in total annual groundwater discharge to smaller streams in the upper portion of the basin, and slight decreases in discharge to larger stream systems in the north-central portion of the basin are projected. Close

• 4. [Article] Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA

  This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-won, Figliozzi, Miguel, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2010 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, a stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the historical period of 1988 and 2006 and simulated for determining the probability of floods for 2020 through 2049. We surveyed stream cross-sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined flood water surface elevations using the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year flood water surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. Whereas vehicle miles traveled was not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-won, Figliozzi, Miguel, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2010 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, a stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the historical period of 1988 and 2006 and simulated for determining the probability of floods for 2020 through 2049. We surveyed stream cross-sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined flood water surface elevations using the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year flood water surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. Whereas vehicle miles traveled was not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Close

• 5. [Article] A Geospatial Tool for Wetland Prioritization at the Watershed Scale

  There is an increasing demand for assessing ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands, especially when comparing or prioritizing among wetlands at the watershed scale. We estimated the relative potential ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Geospatial Tool for Wetland Prioritization at the Watershed Scale Author: Blackmore, Debra Sue, Chang, Heejun Year: 2015 There is an increasing demand for assessing ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands, especially when comparing or prioritizing among wetlands at the watershed scale. We estimated the relative potential of selected ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands within a watershed using widely available geospatial data. We developed four functions to estimate 1) flood storage, 2) late season flow, 3) sediment retention and 4) temperature control in four pilot watersheds in Oregon (Tualatin, Coquille, Upper Grande Ronde and Sprague). These watersheds are geographically separated from each other representing diverse ecoregion environments. Spatial analysis and geographic information system (GIS) were designed for maximum re-use, based on publicly-available data, commonly-used software, semi-automated techniques and wetland characterizations that attempt to capture fundamental wetland processes. Our data sources include 30-meter digital elevation models, NRCS soil survey extracts, USGS National Land Cover Data, USGS HUC8 boundaries (polygons) and statewide wetland delineations (polygons) processed within ArcGIS 10.2 and Python 2.7.5 software. Model parameters were compiled using multiple proxy values for size, slope, aspect, proximity, flow path distance, hydrologic gradient, shade, and soil characteristics. WPT characterizations emphasize the multi-faceted value of freshwater wetlands, relating potential within a watershed as well as providing model-based characterizations between watersheds. Our wetland prioritization tool (WPT) provides useful information to estimate and compare the relative potential for selected wetland functions, thereby improving success in wetland conservation, restoration, and mitigation efforts. Title: A Geospatial Tool for Wetland Prioritization at the Watershed Scale Author: Blackmore, Debra Sue, Chang, Heejun Year: 2015 There is an increasing demand for assessing ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands, especially when comparing or prioritizing among wetlands at the watershed scale. We estimated the relative potential of selected ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands within a watershed using widely available geospatial data. We developed four functions to estimate 1) flood storage, 2) late season flow, 3) sediment retention and 4) temperature control in four pilot watersheds in Oregon (Tualatin, Coquille, Upper Grande Ronde and Sprague). These watersheds are geographically separated from each other representing diverse ecoregion environments. Spatial analysis and geographic information system (GIS) were designed for maximum re-use, based on publicly-available data, commonly-used software, semi-automated techniques and wetland characterizations that attempt to capture fundamental wetland processes. Our data sources include 30-meter digital elevation models, NRCS soil survey extracts, USGS National Land Cover Data, USGS HUC8 boundaries (polygons) and statewide wetland delineations (polygons) processed within ArcGIS 10.2 and Python 2.7.5 software. Model parameters were compiled using multiple proxy values for size, slope, aspect, proximity, flow path distance, hydrologic gradient, shade, and soil characteristics. WPT characterizations emphasize the multi-faceted value of freshwater wetlands, relating potential within a watershed as well as providing model-based characterizations between watersheds. Our wetland prioritization tool (WPT) provides useful information to estimate and compare the relative potential for selected wetland functions, thereby improving success in wetland conservation, restoration, and mitigation efforts. Close

• 6. [Article] Climate Change and Shifts in Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins

  Presented at The Oregon Water Conference, May 24-25, 2011, Corvallis, OR.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change and Shifts in Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins Author: Chang, Heejun, Sharma, Manu, Ennaanay, Driss, Anthony, Terrance Year: 2011 Presented at The Oregon Water Conference, May 24-25, 2011, Corvallis, OR. Title: Climate Change and Shifts in Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins Author: Chang, Heejun, Sharma, Manu, Ennaanay, Driss, Anthony, Terrance Year: 2011 Presented at The Oregon Water Conference, May 24-25, 2011, Corvallis, OR. Close