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• 1. [Article] Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA

  This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA Author: Yazzie, Kimberly Crystal, Chang, Heejun Year: 2017 This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 33 days earlier in RCP 8.5, in comparison to historic conditions (1980s) by the end of the 21st century. After forest cover reduction in the 2080s, CT occurs 35 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 29 days earlier in RCP 8.5. The difference in mean CT after fire-burns may be due to projected changes in the individual climate model. Winter flow is projected to decline after forest cover reduction in the 2080s by 85% and 72% in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, in comparison to 98% change in ensemble mean winter flows in the 2080s before forest cover reduction. The ratio of ensemble mean snow water equivalent to precipitation substantially decreases by 81% and 91% in the 2050s and 2080s before forest cover reduction and a decrease of 90% in RCP 4.5 and 99% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s after fire-burns. Mean basin recharge is 10% and 14% lower in the 2080s before fire-burns and after fire-burns, and it decreases by 13% in RCP 4.5 and decreases 22% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s in comparison to historical conditions. Mixed results for recharge after forest cover reduction suggest that an increase may be due to the size of burned areas, decreased canopy interception and less evaporation occurring at the watershed surface, increasing the potential for infiltration. The effects of fire on the watershed system are strongly indicated by a significant increase in winter seasonal flows and a slight reduction in summer flows. Findings from this study may improve adaptive management of water resources, flood control and the effects of fire on a watershed system. Title: Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA Author: Yazzie, Kimberly Crystal, Chang, Heejun Year: 2017 This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 33 days earlier in RCP 8.5, in comparison to historic conditions (1980s) by the end of the 21st century. After forest cover reduction in the 2080s, CT occurs 35 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 29 days earlier in RCP 8.5. The difference in mean CT after fire-burns may be due to projected changes in the individual climate model. Winter flow is projected to decline after forest cover reduction in the 2080s by 85% and 72% in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, in comparison to 98% change in ensemble mean winter flows in the 2080s before forest cover reduction. The ratio of ensemble mean snow water equivalent to precipitation substantially decreases by 81% and 91% in the 2050s and 2080s before forest cover reduction and a decrease of 90% in RCP 4.5 and 99% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s after fire-burns. Mean basin recharge is 10% and 14% lower in the 2080s before fire-burns and after fire-burns, and it decreases by 13% in RCP 4.5 and decreases 22% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s in comparison to historical conditions. Mixed results for recharge after forest cover reduction suggest that an increase may be due to the size of burned areas, decreased canopy interception and less evaporation occurring at the watershed surface, increasing the potential for infiltration. The effects of fire on the watershed system are strongly indicated by a significant increase in winter seasonal flows and a slight reduction in summer flows. Findings from this study may improve adaptive management of water resources, flood control and the effects of fire on a watershed system. Close

• 2. [Article] Climate Change and Freshwater Resources in Oregon

  Climate change will affect various sectors of water resources in Oregon in the 21st century. The observed trends in streamflow show significant declines in September flow and, although not significant, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change and Freshwater Resources in Oregon Author: Chang, Heejun, Jones, Julie Year: 2010 Climate change will affect various sectors of water resources in Oregon in the 21st century. The observed trends in streamflow show significant declines in September flow and, although not significant, increases in March flow in many transient rain-snow basins. These streamflow trends are associated with rising temperature and coincident declines in snowpack in spring in the latter half of the 20th century. While there are no distinct trends in high precipitation events, such events are associated with climate variability such as ENSO and PDO. Effects of ENSO and PDO are more pronounced at the beginning and end of the wet season in the Willamette River basin. The amount and seasonality of water supply is projected to shift as the distribution of precipitation changes and temperatures rise. Higher summer air temperatures accompanied by reduced precipitation are projected to increase evapotranspiration and decrease stream flow in summer. Although there are no distinct spatial patterns of changes in precipitation and temperature across the State in the 21st century (uniform increase in temperature across the region), significant regional variations do exist. The magnitude of change depends on the importance of snow in the current water budget, so projected changes are greater for mountainous regions than for low-elevation areas. Transient rain-snow basins, such as those in the Western Cascade basins, are projected to be more sensitive to these changes in precipitation and temperature. The high Cascade basins that are primarily fed by deep groundwater systems could sustain low flow during summer months. Basins in the east of the Cascades are projected to have low summer flow in a distant future as groundwater recharge declines over time. April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) will decline and the center timing of runoff will become earlier in transient rain-snow basins as snowpack is projected to decline consistently in the 21st century. These model projections should be viewed with caution for several reasons when considering climate change impacts on water supply in Oregon. First, this chapter shows that few consistent trends in runoff are apparent in streamflow records from Oregon; instead, the direction and magnitude of change in streamflow varies by season, by basin size, and among ecoregions in Oregon. Second, observed streamflow trends (e.g., declining flows in summer, or in September) may be explained by factors that may not be directly related to global climate change. For example, recent low-flow years are attributable to low precipitation years (especially 2001 and 2005) and perhaps to interannual variations in snowpack associated with cyclical variation in ocean temperatures, while long-term decreases in summer flows are attributable to the combination of summer precipitation decline and increasing water withdrawals for consumptive use. Third, model projections do not account for possible resilience and adaptations in natural ecosystems that may alter water use and lead to smaller than expected changes in streamflow. More work is needed on vegetation responses to climate variability, the interactions between soil water and vegetation, and the relationship between streamflow and precipitation (runoff ratios) in large basins. Title: Climate Change and Freshwater Resources in Oregon Author: Chang, Heejun, Jones, Julie Year: 2010 Climate change will affect various sectors of water resources in Oregon in the 21st century. The observed trends in streamflow show significant declines in September flow and, although not significant, increases in March flow in many transient rain-snow basins. These streamflow trends are associated with rising temperature and coincident declines in snowpack in spring in the latter half of the 20th century. While there are no distinct trends in high precipitation events, such events are associated with climate variability such as ENSO and PDO. Effects of ENSO and PDO are more pronounced at the beginning and end of the wet season in the Willamette River basin. The amount and seasonality of water supply is projected to shift as the distribution of precipitation changes and temperatures rise. Higher summer air temperatures accompanied by reduced precipitation are projected to increase evapotranspiration and decrease stream flow in summer. Although there are no distinct spatial patterns of changes in precipitation and temperature across the State in the 21st century (uniform increase in temperature across the region), significant regional variations do exist. The magnitude of change depends on the importance of snow in the current water budget, so projected changes are greater for mountainous regions than for low-elevation areas. Transient rain-snow basins, such as those in the Western Cascade basins, are projected to be more sensitive to these changes in precipitation and temperature. The high Cascade basins that are primarily fed by deep groundwater systems could sustain low flow during summer months. Basins in the east of the Cascades are projected to have low summer flow in a distant future as groundwater recharge declines over time. April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) will decline and the center timing of runoff will become earlier in transient rain-snow basins as snowpack is projected to decline consistently in the 21st century. These model projections should be viewed with caution for several reasons when considering climate change impacts on water supply in Oregon. First, this chapter shows that few consistent trends in runoff are apparent in streamflow records from Oregon; instead, the direction and magnitude of change in streamflow varies by season, by basin size, and among ecoregions in Oregon. Second, observed streamflow trends (e.g., declining flows in summer, or in September) may be explained by factors that may not be directly related to global climate change. For example, recent low-flow years are attributable to low precipitation years (especially 2001 and 2005) and perhaps to interannual variations in snowpack associated with cyclical variation in ocean temperatures, while long-term decreases in summer flows are attributable to the combination of summer precipitation decline and increasing water withdrawals for consumptive use. Third, model projections do not account for possible resilience and adaptations in natural ecosystems that may alter water use and lead to smaller than expected changes in streamflow. More work is needed on vegetation responses to climate variability, the interactions between soil water and vegetation, and the relationship between streamflow and precipitation (runoff ratios) in large basins. Close

• 3. [Article] Assessment of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes River Basin, Central Oregon

  Effects of climate change in the Cascade Range will likely include more rain, less snow, and earlier snowmelt in the Cascade Range as compared to present conditions. These changes, in turn, will affect ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessment of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes River Basin, Central Oregon Author: Chang, Heejun, Waibel, M. Scott, Gannett, Marshall W., Hulbe, Christina L. Year: 2011 Effects of climate change in the Cascade Range will likely include more rain, less snow, and earlier snowmelt in the Cascade Range as compared to present conditions. These changes, in turn, will affect the timing of runoff, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to spring-fed streams. This hydrologic response needs to be examined and understood due to implications for water management. In this study, a water- and energy-balance model was used to explore 21st century changes in the water budget in the upper Deschutes Basin, and a groundwater model was used to evaluate the response of the groundwater system to those changes. A Deep Percolation Model (DPM) developed for the basin in the 1990s uses spatially distributed climate data to calculate a daily mass balance for the major components of the hydrologic budget. For this work, we drove the DPM using ensemble means of eight downscaled global climate models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Although similar for both scenarios, greater changes in the timing of runoff and recharge as well as higher reductions in snowpack occur using the A1B scenario. Considering both scenarios, diminished snowpack results in reductions in spring runoff ranging from 40% to 63% and recharge from 21% to 37%. These reductions are offset by late fall and winter increases. Also, spatial changes in the mean annual ratio of recharge to runoff occur due to changes in soil infiltration rates. The modeled response of the groundwater system to changes in the time and amount of recharge varies spatially. Short flow-path systems in the upper part of the basin are most sensitive to change in seasonality of recharge. At regional scales, diffusion along groundwater flow paths partially attenuates the effects of changes in recharge timing. Furthermore, slight increases in total annual groundwater discharge to smaller streams in the upper portion of the basin, and slight decreases in discharge to larger stream systems in the north-central portion of the basin are projected. Title: Assessment of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes River Basin, Central Oregon Author: Chang, Heejun, Waibel, M. Scott, Gannett, Marshall W., Hulbe, Christina L. Year: 2011 Effects of climate change in the Cascade Range will likely include more rain, less snow, and earlier snowmelt in the Cascade Range as compared to present conditions. These changes, in turn, will affect the timing of runoff, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to spring-fed streams. This hydrologic response needs to be examined and understood due to implications for water management. In this study, a water- and energy-balance model was used to explore 21st century changes in the water budget in the upper Deschutes Basin, and a groundwater model was used to evaluate the response of the groundwater system to those changes. A Deep Percolation Model (DPM) developed for the basin in the 1990s uses spatially distributed climate data to calculate a daily mass balance for the major components of the hydrologic budget. For this work, we drove the DPM using ensemble means of eight downscaled global climate models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Although similar for both scenarios, greater changes in the timing of runoff and recharge as well as higher reductions in snowpack occur using the A1B scenario. Considering both scenarios, diminished snowpack results in reductions in spring runoff ranging from 40% to 63% and recharge from 21% to 37%. These reductions are offset by late fall and winter increases. Also, spatial changes in the mean annual ratio of recharge to runoff occur due to changes in soil infiltration rates. The modeled response of the groundwater system to changes in the time and amount of recharge varies spatially. Short flow-path systems in the upper part of the basin are most sensitive to change in seasonality of recharge. At regional scales, diffusion along groundwater flow paths partially attenuates the effects of changes in recharge timing. Furthermore, slight increases in total annual groundwater discharge to smaller streams in the upper portion of the basin, and slight decreases in discharge to larger stream systems in the north-central portion of the basin are projected. Close

• 4. [Article] Using Spatially Explicit Indicators to Investigate Watershed Characteristics and stream temperature relationships

  We generate a series of novel indicators of spatially explicit watershed permeability and runoff characteristics to examine the relationship between land cover and water temperature parameters in a rapidly ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Using Spatially Explicit Indicators to Investigate Watershed Characteristics and stream temperature relationships Author: Grabowski, Zbigniew J., Watson, Eric, Chang, Heejun Year: 2016 We generate a series of novel indicators of spatially explicit watershed permeability and runoff characteristics to examine the relationship between land cover and water temperature parameters in a rapidly urbanizing watershed. Our framework provides a readily adaptable method to examine the thermal sensitivity of streams based upon the underlying geomorphological and surface characteristics of drainage basins. Using four model groups each using a different landscape characteristic weighting scheme (Model Group 1: areal averages; Model Group 2: inverse distance by total flow length; Model Group 3: overland distance to stream network and distance squared; Model Group 4: proportional flow accumulation), we examined the predictive capacity of 19 variables, including combinations of simplified land cover, elevation, slope, and flow accumulation, on five stream thermal properties: seven day moving average of daily minimum and maximum, seasonal mean temperature, a novel metric of thermal 'flashiness', and total days with maximum temperature exceeding 17.8°C. We find that the use of spatially explicit landscape indicators combining watershed processes improves the performance of regressions for predicting a number of ecologically relevant stream temperature variables. Improved indicators of watershed condition lend themselves for rapid investigation of the relationship between stream thermal conditions and landscape characteristics in watersheds modified by human land uses, ultimately providing a more hydrologically meaningful indicator for the impacts of landscape change. Title: Using Spatially Explicit Indicators to Investigate Watershed Characteristics and stream temperature relationships Author: Grabowski, Zbigniew J., Watson, Eric, Chang, Heejun Year: 2016 We generate a series of novel indicators of spatially explicit watershed permeability and runoff characteristics to examine the relationship between land cover and water temperature parameters in a rapidly urbanizing watershed. Our framework provides a readily adaptable method to examine the thermal sensitivity of streams based upon the underlying geomorphological and surface characteristics of drainage basins. Using four model groups each using a different landscape characteristic weighting scheme (Model Group 1: areal averages; Model Group 2: inverse distance by total flow length; Model Group 3: overland distance to stream network and distance squared; Model Group 4: proportional flow accumulation), we examined the predictive capacity of 19 variables, including combinations of simplified land cover, elevation, slope, and flow accumulation, on five stream thermal properties: seven day moving average of daily minimum and maximum, seasonal mean temperature, a novel metric of thermal 'flashiness', and total days with maximum temperature exceeding 17.8°C. We find that the use of spatially explicit landscape indicators combining watershed processes improves the performance of regressions for predicting a number of ecologically relevant stream temperature variables. Improved indicators of watershed condition lend themselves for rapid investigation of the relationship between stream thermal conditions and landscape characteristics in watersheds modified by human land uses, ultimately providing a more hydrologically meaningful indicator for the impacts of landscape change. Close

• 5. [Article] Climate Change and Shifts in Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins

  Water related ecosystem services (WES), such as flow regulation, drinking water supply, temperature regulation, and water recreational activities, are affected by anthropogenic climate change. Forecasting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change and Shifts in Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins Author: Chang, Heejun, Anthony, Terrance, Ennaanay, Driss, Sharma, Manu Year: 2011 Water related ecosystem services (WES), such as flow regulation, drinking water supply, temperature regulation, and water recreational activities, are affected by anthropogenic climate change. Forecasting potential shifts in such WES is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. We quantified the levels and values of WES under multiple climate change scenarios in the two watersheds located in the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon, USA using the combination of a hydrologic model Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Non-point Sources - Soil and Water Assessment Tool (BASINS-SWAT) and an ecosystem evaluation model ? Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s AR4 climate change simulation results, we found that there is a slight relative increase in annual water yield, sediment yield, and dissolved phosphorus, but storm peak management does not change substantially by the 2050s. Spatial analysis shows that the locations of hot and cold spots remain relatively stable. It is also shown that there are high spatial and temporal uncertainties associated with climate change projections due to variations in precipitation projections toward the middle of the 21st century. The findings of our study provide useful information for water and land managers in identifying target areas for conservation to best sustain WES provision, use, and value under a range of climate change scenarios. Title: Climate Change and Shifts in Water Related Ecosystem Services in the Tualatin and Yamhill River Basins Author: Chang, Heejun, Anthony, Terrance, Ennaanay, Driss, Sharma, Manu Year: 2011 Water related ecosystem services (WES), such as flow regulation, drinking water supply, temperature regulation, and water recreational activities, are affected by anthropogenic climate change. Forecasting potential shifts in such WES is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. We quantified the levels and values of WES under multiple climate change scenarios in the two watersheds located in the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon, USA using the combination of a hydrologic model Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Non-point Sources - Soil and Water Assessment Tool (BASINS-SWAT) and an ecosystem evaluation model ? Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?s AR4 climate change simulation results, we found that there is a slight relative increase in annual water yield, sediment yield, and dissolved phosphorus, but storm peak management does not change substantially by the 2050s. Spatial analysis shows that the locations of hot and cold spots remain relatively stable. It is also shown that there are high spatial and temporal uncertainties associated with climate change projections due to variations in precipitation projections toward the middle of the 21st century. The findings of our study provide useful information for water and land managers in identifying target areas for conservation to best sustain WES provision, use, and value under a range of climate change scenarios. Close

• 6. [Article] The Influence of Floodplain Restoration on Flow and Sediment Dynamics in an Urban River

  A study of floodplain sedimentation on a recently restored floodplain is presented. This study uses a two-dimensional hydro-morphodynamic model for predicting flow and suspended-sediment dynamics in the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Influence of Floodplain Restoration on Flow and Sediment Dynamics in an Urban River Author: Ahilan, Sangaralingam, Guan, Mingfu, Sleigh, Andrew, Wright, Nigel G., Chang, Heejun Year: 2016 A study of floodplain sedimentation on a recently restored floodplain is presented. This study uses a two-dimensional hydro-morphodynamic model for predicting flow and suspended-sediment dynamics in the downstream of Johnson Creek, the East Lents reach, where the bank of the river has been reconfigured to reconnect to a restored floodplain on a 0.26 km2 (26-ha) site. The simulation scenarios include 10-, 50-, 100- and 500-year event-based deposition modelling of flood events and long-term modelling using the 64 historical flood events between 1941 and 2014. Simulation results showed that the restored floodplain significantly attenuates the upstream flood peak by up to 25% at the downstream. Results also indicated that approximately 20%–30% of sediment from the upstream is deposited on the East Lents floodplain. Furthermore, deposited sediment over the simulated period (1941–2014) is approximately 0.1% of the basin's flood storage capacity; however, the reduction in the storage does not offset the overall flood resilience impact of the flood basin. The sediment conservation at the East Lents flood basin as predicted by the model reduces the annual sediment loading of the Johnson Creek by 1% at the confluence with Willamette River, providing both improved water quality and flood resilience further downstream. Title: The Influence of Floodplain Restoration on Flow and Sediment Dynamics in an Urban River Author: Ahilan, Sangaralingam, Guan, Mingfu, Sleigh, Andrew, Wright, Nigel G., Chang, Heejun Year: 2016 A study of floodplain sedimentation on a recently restored floodplain is presented. This study uses a two-dimensional hydro-morphodynamic model for predicting flow and suspended-sediment dynamics in the downstream of Johnson Creek, the East Lents reach, where the bank of the river has been reconfigured to reconnect to a restored floodplain on a 0.26 km2 (26-ha) site. The simulation scenarios include 10-, 50-, 100- and 500-year event-based deposition modelling of flood events and long-term modelling using the 64 historical flood events between 1941 and 2014. Simulation results showed that the restored floodplain significantly attenuates the upstream flood peak by up to 25% at the downstream. Results also indicated that approximately 20%–30% of sediment from the upstream is deposited on the East Lents floodplain. Furthermore, deposited sediment over the simulated period (1941–2014) is approximately 0.1% of the basin's flood storage capacity; however, the reduction in the storage does not offset the overall flood resilience impact of the flood basin. The sediment conservation at the East Lents flood basin as predicted by the model reduces the annual sediment loading of the Johnson Creek by 1% at the confluence with Willamette River, providing both improved water quality and flood resilience further downstream. Close

• 7. [Article] Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in the Upper Clackamas River Basin, Oregon, USA

  The Pacific Northwest of the USA is dependent on seasonal snowmelt for water resources that support its economy and aquatic ecosystems. Increased temperatures resulting from higher concentrations of atmospheric ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in the Upper Clackamas River Basin, Oregon, USA Author: Graves, David, Chang, Heejun Year: 2007 The Pacific Northwest of the USA is dependent on seasonal snowmelt for water resources that support its economy and aquatic ecosystems. Increased temperatures resulting from higher concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases may cause disruptions to these resources because of reductions in the annual snowpack and the earlier occurrence of seasonal snowmelt. We applied a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based distributed hydrologic model at a monthly scale to assess the effects of future climate change on runoff from the Upper Clackamas River Basin (UCB; located near Portland, Oregon, USA). Once validated using historic flow data, the model was run for 2 future time periods (2010–2039 and 2070–2099) using climate change simulations from 2 global circulation modelling groups (HadCM2 from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, and CGCM1 from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) as inputs. The model runs projected that mean peak snowpack in the study area will drop dramatically (36 to 49% by 2010–2039, and 83 to 88% by 2070–2099), resulting in earlier runoff and diminished spring and summer flows. Increases in mean winter runoff by 2070–2099 vary from moderate (13.7%) to large (46.4%), depending on the changes to precipitation projected by the general circulation models (GCMs). These results are similar to those of other studies in areas dependent on snowpack for seasonal runoff, but the reductions to snowpack are more severe in this study than in similar studies of the entire Columbia River Basin, presumably because the elevations of much of the Upper Clackamas Basin are near the current mid-winter snow line. Title: Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in the Upper Clackamas River Basin, Oregon, USA Author: Graves, David, Chang, Heejun Year: 2007 The Pacific Northwest of the USA is dependent on seasonal snowmelt for water resources that support its economy and aquatic ecosystems. Increased temperatures resulting from higher concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases may cause disruptions to these resources because of reductions in the annual snowpack and the earlier occurrence of seasonal snowmelt. We applied a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based distributed hydrologic model at a monthly scale to assess the effects of future climate change on runoff from the Upper Clackamas River Basin (UCB; located near Portland, Oregon, USA). Once validated using historic flow data, the model was run for 2 future time periods (2010–2039 and 2070–2099) using climate change simulations from 2 global circulation modelling groups (HadCM2 from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, and CGCM1 from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) as inputs. The model runs projected that mean peak snowpack in the study area will drop dramatically (36 to 49% by 2010–2039, and 83 to 88% by 2070–2099), resulting in earlier runoff and diminished spring and summer flows. Increases in mean winter runoff by 2070–2099 vary from moderate (13.7%) to large (46.4%), depending on the changes to precipitation projected by the general circulation models (GCMs). These results are similar to those of other studies in areas dependent on snowpack for seasonal runoff, but the reductions to snowpack are more severe in this study than in similar studies of the entire Columbia River Basin, presumably because the elevations of much of the Upper Clackamas Basin are near the current mid-winter snow line. Close

• 8. [Article] A Geospatial Tool for Wetland Prioritization at the Watershed Scale

  There is an increasing demand for assessing ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands, especially when comparing or prioritizing among wetlands at the watershed scale. We estimated the relative potential ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Geospatial Tool for Wetland Prioritization at the Watershed Scale Author: Blackmore, Debra Sue, Chang, Heejun Year: 2015 There is an increasing demand for assessing ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands, especially when comparing or prioritizing among wetlands at the watershed scale. We estimated the relative potential of selected ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands within a watershed using widely available geospatial data. We developed four functions to estimate 1) flood storage, 2) late season flow, 3) sediment retention and 4) temperature control in four pilot watersheds in Oregon (Tualatin, Coquille, Upper Grande Ronde and Sprague). These watersheds are geographically separated from each other representing diverse ecoregion environments. Spatial analysis and geographic information system (GIS) were designed for maximum re-use, based on publicly-available data, commonly-used software, semi-automated techniques and wetland characterizations that attempt to capture fundamental wetland processes. Our data sources include 30-meter digital elevation models, NRCS soil survey extracts, USGS National Land Cover Data, USGS HUC8 boundaries (polygons) and statewide wetland delineations (polygons) processed within ArcGIS 10.2 and Python 2.7.5 software. Model parameters were compiled using multiple proxy values for size, slope, aspect, proximity, flow path distance, hydrologic gradient, shade, and soil characteristics. WPT characterizations emphasize the multi-faceted value of freshwater wetlands, relating potential within a watershed as well as providing model-based characterizations between watersheds. Our wetland prioritization tool (WPT) provides useful information to estimate and compare the relative potential for selected wetland functions, thereby improving success in wetland conservation, restoration, and mitigation efforts. Title: A Geospatial Tool for Wetland Prioritization at the Watershed Scale Author: Blackmore, Debra Sue, Chang, Heejun Year: 2015 There is an increasing demand for assessing ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands, especially when comparing or prioritizing among wetlands at the watershed scale. We estimated the relative potential of selected ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands within a watershed using widely available geospatial data. We developed four functions to estimate 1) flood storage, 2) late season flow, 3) sediment retention and 4) temperature control in four pilot watersheds in Oregon (Tualatin, Coquille, Upper Grande Ronde and Sprague). These watersheds are geographically separated from each other representing diverse ecoregion environments. Spatial analysis and geographic information system (GIS) were designed for maximum re-use, based on publicly-available data, commonly-used software, semi-automated techniques and wetland characterizations that attempt to capture fundamental wetland processes. Our data sources include 30-meter digital elevation models, NRCS soil survey extracts, USGS National Land Cover Data, USGS HUC8 boundaries (polygons) and statewide wetland delineations (polygons) processed within ArcGIS 10.2 and Python 2.7.5 software. Model parameters were compiled using multiple proxy values for size, slope, aspect, proximity, flow path distance, hydrologic gradient, shade, and soil characteristics. WPT characterizations emphasize the multi-faceted value of freshwater wetlands, relating potential within a watershed as well as providing model-based characterizations between watersheds. Our wetland prioritization tool (WPT) provides useful information to estimate and compare the relative potential for selected wetland functions, thereby improving success in wetland conservation, restoration, and mitigation efforts. Close