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• 1. [Article] The Influence of Floodplain Restoration on Flow and Sediment Dynamics in an Urban River

  A study of floodplain sedimentation on a recently restored floodplain is presented. This study uses a two-dimensional hydro-morphodynamic model for predicting flow and suspended-sediment dynamics in the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Influence of Floodplain Restoration on Flow and Sediment Dynamics in an Urban River Author: Ahilan, Sangaralingam, Guan, Mingfu, Sleigh, Andrew, Wright, Nigel G., Chang, Heejun Year: 2016 A study of floodplain sedimentation on a recently restored floodplain is presented. This study uses a two-dimensional hydro-morphodynamic model for predicting flow and suspended-sediment dynamics in the downstream of Johnson Creek, the East Lents reach, where the bank of the river has been reconfigured to reconnect to a restored floodplain on a 0.26 km2 (26-ha) site. The simulation scenarios include 10-, 50-, 100- and 500-year event-based deposition modelling of flood events and long-term modelling using the 64 historical flood events between 1941 and 2014. Simulation results showed that the restored floodplain significantly attenuates the upstream flood peak by up to 25% at the downstream. Results also indicated that approximately 20%–30% of sediment from the upstream is deposited on the East Lents floodplain. Furthermore, deposited sediment over the simulated period (1941–2014) is approximately 0.1% of the basin's flood storage capacity; however, the reduction in the storage does not offset the overall flood resilience impact of the flood basin. The sediment conservation at the East Lents flood basin as predicted by the model reduces the annual sediment loading of the Johnson Creek by 1% at the confluence with Willamette River, providing both improved water quality and flood resilience further downstream. Title: The Influence of Floodplain Restoration on Flow and Sediment Dynamics in an Urban River Author: Ahilan, Sangaralingam, Guan, Mingfu, Sleigh, Andrew, Wright, Nigel G., Chang, Heejun Year: 2016 A study of floodplain sedimentation on a recently restored floodplain is presented. This study uses a two-dimensional hydro-morphodynamic model for predicting flow and suspended-sediment dynamics in the downstream of Johnson Creek, the East Lents reach, where the bank of the river has been reconfigured to reconnect to a restored floodplain on a 0.26 km2 (26-ha) site. The simulation scenarios include 10-, 50-, 100- and 500-year event-based deposition modelling of flood events and long-term modelling using the 64 historical flood events between 1941 and 2014. Simulation results showed that the restored floodplain significantly attenuates the upstream flood peak by up to 25% at the downstream. Results also indicated that approximately 20%–30% of sediment from the upstream is deposited on the East Lents floodplain. Furthermore, deposited sediment over the simulated period (1941–2014) is approximately 0.1% of the basin's flood storage capacity; however, the reduction in the storage does not offset the overall flood resilience impact of the flood basin. The sediment conservation at the East Lents flood basin as predicted by the model reduces the annual sediment loading of the Johnson Creek by 1% at the confluence with Willamette River, providing both improved water quality and flood resilience further downstream. Close

• 2. [Article] Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA

  This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-won, Figliozzi, Miguel, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2010 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, a stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the historical period of 1988 and 2006 and simulated for determining the probability of floods for 2020 through 2049. We surveyed stream cross-sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined flood water surface elevations using the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year flood water surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. Whereas vehicle miles traveled was not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Title: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood-Induced Travel Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-won, Figliozzi, Miguel, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2010 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, a stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the historical period of 1988 and 2006 and simulated for determining the probability of floods for 2020 through 2049. We surveyed stream cross-sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined flood water surface elevations using the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year flood water surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. Whereas vehicle miles traveled was not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Close

• 3. [Article] Quantifying Uncertainty in Urban Flooding Analysis Considering Hydro-Climatic Projection and Urban Development Effects

  How will the combined impacts of land use change, climate change, and hydrologic modeling influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is the main uncertainty source of the results? Will such changes ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Quantifying Uncertainty in Urban Flooding Analysis Considering Hydro-Climatic Projection and Urban Development Effects Author: Jung, Il-Won, Chang, Heejun, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2011 How will the combined impacts of land use change, climate change, and hydrologic modeling influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is the main uncertainty source of the results? Will such changes differ by catchment with different degrees of current and future urban development? We attempt to answer these questions in two catchments with different degrees of urbanization, the Fanno catchment with 84% urban land use and the Johnson catchment with 36% urban land use, both located in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Five uncertainty sources – general circulation model (GCM) structures, future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, land use change scenarios, natural variability, and hydrologic model parameters – are considered to compare the relative source of uncertainty in flood frequency projections. Two land use change scenarios, conservation and development, representing possible future land use changes are used for analysis. Results show the highest increase in flood frequency under the combination of medium high GHG emission (A1B) and development scenarios, and the lowest increase under the combination of low GHG emission (B1) and conservation scenarios. Although the combined impact is more significant to flood frequency change than individual scenarios, it does not linearly Title: Quantifying Uncertainty in Urban Flooding Analysis Considering Hydro-Climatic Projection and Urban Development Effects Author: Jung, Il-Won, Chang, Heejun, Moradkhani, Hamid Year: 2011 How will the combined impacts of land use change, climate change, and hydrologic modeling influence changes in urban flood frequency and what is the main uncertainty source of the results? Will such changes differ by catchment with different degrees of current and future urban development? We attempt to answer these questions in two catchments with different degrees of urbanization, the Fanno catchment with 84% urban land use and the Johnson catchment with 36% urban land use, both located in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Five uncertainty sources – general circulation model (GCM) structures, future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, land use change scenarios, natural variability, and hydrologic model parameters – are considered to compare the relative source of uncertainty in flood frequency projections. Two land use change scenarios, conservation and development, representing possible future land use changes are used for analysis. Results show the highest increase in flood frequency under the combination of medium high GHG emission (A1B) and development scenarios, and the lowest increase under the combination of low GHG emission (B1) and conservation scenarios. Although the combined impact is more significant to flood frequency change than individual scenarios, it does not linearly Close

• 4. [Article] Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change

  This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-Won, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Melgoza, Rolando, Ruelas, David, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2011 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the period 1988-2006, and simulated for determining the probability of floods from 2020-2049. We surveyed stream cross sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined floodwater surface elevations using the HEC-RAS model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year floodwater surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. While vehicle miles traveled were not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle-hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Results indicate that any cost analysis is extremely sensitive to the occurrence of human fatalities or injuries and fairly insensitive to delay costs. In addition, this research presents a comprehensive classification of flooding costs, identifies preventative measures, and makes short- and long-term recommendations. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment, and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Title: Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-Won, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Melgoza, Rolando, Ruelas, David, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2011 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the period 1988-2006, and simulated for determining the probability of floods from 2020-2049. We surveyed stream cross sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined floodwater surface elevations using the HEC-RAS model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year floodwater surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. While vehicle miles traveled were not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle-hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Results indicate that any cost analysis is extremely sensitive to the occurrence of human fatalities or injuries and fairly insensitive to delay costs. In addition, this research presents a comprehensive classification of flooding costs, identifies preventative measures, and makes short- and long-term recommendations. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment, and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Close

• 5. [Article] A Geospatial Tool for Wetland Prioritization at the Watershed Scale

  There is an increasing demand for assessing ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands, especially when comparing or prioritizing among wetlands at the watershed scale. We estimated the relative potential ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Geospatial Tool for Wetland Prioritization at the Watershed Scale Author: Blackmore, Debra Sue, Chang, Heejun Year: 2015 There is an increasing demand for assessing ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands, especially when comparing or prioritizing among wetlands at the watershed scale. We estimated the relative potential of selected ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands within a watershed using widely available geospatial data. We developed four functions to estimate 1) flood storage, 2) late season flow, 3) sediment retention and 4) temperature control in four pilot watersheds in Oregon (Tualatin, Coquille, Upper Grande Ronde and Sprague). These watersheds are geographically separated from each other representing diverse ecoregion environments. Spatial analysis and geographic information system (GIS) were designed for maximum re-use, based on publicly-available data, commonly-used software, semi-automated techniques and wetland characterizations that attempt to capture fundamental wetland processes. Our data sources include 30-meter digital elevation models, NRCS soil survey extracts, USGS National Land Cover Data, USGS HUC8 boundaries (polygons) and statewide wetland delineations (polygons) processed within ArcGIS 10.2 and Python 2.7.5 software. Model parameters were compiled using multiple proxy values for size, slope, aspect, proximity, flow path distance, hydrologic gradient, shade, and soil characteristics. WPT characterizations emphasize the multi-faceted value of freshwater wetlands, relating potential within a watershed as well as providing model-based characterizations between watersheds. Our wetland prioritization tool (WPT) provides useful information to estimate and compare the relative potential for selected wetland functions, thereby improving success in wetland conservation, restoration, and mitigation efforts. Title: A Geospatial Tool for Wetland Prioritization at the Watershed Scale Author: Blackmore, Debra Sue, Chang, Heejun Year: 2015 There is an increasing demand for assessing ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands, especially when comparing or prioritizing among wetlands at the watershed scale. We estimated the relative potential of selected ecosystem functions for freshwater wetlands within a watershed using widely available geospatial data. We developed four functions to estimate 1) flood storage, 2) late season flow, 3) sediment retention and 4) temperature control in four pilot watersheds in Oregon (Tualatin, Coquille, Upper Grande Ronde and Sprague). These watersheds are geographically separated from each other representing diverse ecoregion environments. Spatial analysis and geographic information system (GIS) were designed for maximum re-use, based on publicly-available data, commonly-used software, semi-automated techniques and wetland characterizations that attempt to capture fundamental wetland processes. Our data sources include 30-meter digital elevation models, NRCS soil survey extracts, USGS National Land Cover Data, USGS HUC8 boundaries (polygons) and statewide wetland delineations (polygons) processed within ArcGIS 10.2 and Python 2.7.5 software. Model parameters were compiled using multiple proxy values for size, slope, aspect, proximity, flow path distance, hydrologic gradient, shade, and soil characteristics. WPT characterizations emphasize the multi-faceted value of freshwater wetlands, relating potential within a watershed as well as providing model-based characterizations between watersheds. Our wetland prioritization tool (WPT) provides useful information to estimate and compare the relative potential for selected wetland functions, thereby improving success in wetland conservation, restoration, and mitigation efforts. Close

• 6. [Article] Science and Practice of Integrated River Basin Management : Lessons from North and Central American UNESCO-HELP Basins

  The Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy (HELP) program, a cross-cutting component of the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (IHP), has as its goal to facilitate dialogue among hydrologists, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Science and Practice of Integrated River Basin Management : Lessons from North and Central American UNESCO-HELP Basins Author: Chang, Heejun, Browning-Aiken, Anne Year: 2010 The Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy (HELP) program, a cross-cutting component of the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (IHP), has as its goal to facilitate dialogue among hydrologists, social and economic scientists, water resource managers, water lawyers, policy experts, and river basin stakeholder communities in setting a research agenda driven by local management and policy issues. HELP seeks to improve the benefits to society by applying the principals of integrated water-resources management to complex, interdisciplinary issues within catchments. This Monograph is the culmination of a workshop held in 2010 in which the managers from the six North American basins (San Pedro, Willamette, Upper Washita, Lake Champlain, Iowa-Cedar, Luquillo) and a Central American basin (Panama Canal), see Figure 1, met to exchange ideas and “lessons learned” in various applications of IWRM within the HELP philosophy. Three major themes were examined: 1. Climate change: Creating watershed resilience 2. Use of social learning in IWRM 3. Knowledge and information management for IWRM Each of these themes is explored in detail and enhanced with case studies of IWRM applications from the participating North and Central American HELP basins. Title: Science and Practice of Integrated River Basin Management : Lessons from North and Central American UNESCO-HELP Basins Author: Chang, Heejun, Browning-Aiken, Anne Year: 2010 The Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy (HELP) program, a cross-cutting component of the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme (IHP), has as its goal to facilitate dialogue among hydrologists, social and economic scientists, water resource managers, water lawyers, policy experts, and river basin stakeholder communities in setting a research agenda driven by local management and policy issues. HELP seeks to improve the benefits to society by applying the principals of integrated water-resources management to complex, interdisciplinary issues within catchments. This Monograph is the culmination of a workshop held in 2010 in which the managers from the six North American basins (San Pedro, Willamette, Upper Washita, Lake Champlain, Iowa-Cedar, Luquillo) and a Central American basin (Panama Canal), see Figure 1, met to exchange ideas and “lessons learned” in various applications of IWRM within the HELP philosophy. Three major themes were examined: 1. Climate change: Creating watershed resilience 2. Use of social learning in IWRM 3. Knowledge and information management for IWRM Each of these themes is explored in detail and enhanced with case studies of IWRM applications from the participating North and Central American HELP basins. Close

• 7. [Article] Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA

  This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA Author: Yazzie, Kimberly Crystal, Chang, Heejun Year: 2017 This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 33 days earlier in RCP 8.5, in comparison to historic conditions (1980s) by the end of the 21st century. After forest cover reduction in the 2080s, CT occurs 35 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 29 days earlier in RCP 8.5. The difference in mean CT after fire-burns may be due to projected changes in the individual climate model. Winter flow is projected to decline after forest cover reduction in the 2080s by 85% and 72% in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, in comparison to 98% change in ensemble mean winter flows in the 2080s before forest cover reduction. The ratio of ensemble mean snow water equivalent to precipitation substantially decreases by 81% and 91% in the 2050s and 2080s before forest cover reduction and a decrease of 90% in RCP 4.5 and 99% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s after fire-burns. Mean basin recharge is 10% and 14% lower in the 2080s before fire-burns and after fire-burns, and it decreases by 13% in RCP 4.5 and decreases 22% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s in comparison to historical conditions. Mixed results for recharge after forest cover reduction suggest that an increase may be due to the size of burned areas, decreased canopy interception and less evaporation occurring at the watershed surface, increasing the potential for infiltration. The effects of fire on the watershed system are strongly indicated by a significant increase in winter seasonal flows and a slight reduction in summer flows. Findings from this study may improve adaptive management of water resources, flood control and the effects of fire on a watershed system. Title: Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA Author: Yazzie, Kimberly Crystal, Chang, Heejun Year: 2017 This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 33 days earlier in RCP 8.5, in comparison to historic conditions (1980s) by the end of the 21st century. After forest cover reduction in the 2080s, CT occurs 35 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 29 days earlier in RCP 8.5. The difference in mean CT after fire-burns may be due to projected changes in the individual climate model. Winter flow is projected to decline after forest cover reduction in the 2080s by 85% and 72% in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, in comparison to 98% change in ensemble mean winter flows in the 2080s before forest cover reduction. The ratio of ensemble mean snow water equivalent to precipitation substantially decreases by 81% and 91% in the 2050s and 2080s before forest cover reduction and a decrease of 90% in RCP 4.5 and 99% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s after fire-burns. Mean basin recharge is 10% and 14% lower in the 2080s before fire-burns and after fire-burns, and it decreases by 13% in RCP 4.5 and decreases 22% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s in comparison to historical conditions. Mixed results for recharge after forest cover reduction suggest that an increase may be due to the size of burned areas, decreased canopy interception and less evaporation occurring at the watershed surface, increasing the potential for infiltration. The effects of fire on the watershed system are strongly indicated by a significant increase in winter seasonal flows and a slight reduction in summer flows. Findings from this study may improve adaptive management of water resources, flood control and the effects of fire on a watershed system. Close