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• 1. [Article] Precipitation Intensity Trend Detection using Hourly and Daily Observations in Portland, Oregon

  The intensity of precipitation is expected to increase in response to climate change, but the regions where this may occur are unclear. The lack of certainty from climate models warrants an examination ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Precipitation Intensity Trend Detection using Hourly and Daily Observations in Portland, Oregon Author: Cooley, Alexis, Chang, Heejun Year: 2017 The intensity of precipitation is expected to increase in response to climate change, but the regions where this may occur are unclear. The lack of certainty from climate models warrants an examination of trends in observational records. However, the temporal resolution of records may affect the success of trend detection. Daily observations are often used, but may be too coarse to detect changes. Sub-daily records may improve detection, but their value is not yet quantified. Using daily and hourly records from 24 rain gages in Portland, Oregon (OR), trends in precipitation intensity and volume are examined for the period of 1999–2015. Daily intensity is measured using the Simple Daily Intensity Index, and this method is adapted to measure hourly scale intensity. Kendall’s tau, a non-parametric correlation coefficient, is used for monotonic trend detection. Field significance and tests for spatial autocorrelation using Moran’s Index are used to determine the significance of group hypothesis tests. Results indicate that the hourly data is superior in trend detection when compared with daily data; more trends are detected with hourly scale data at both the 5% and 10% significance levels. Hourly records showed a significant increase in 6 of 12 months, while daily records showed a significant increase in 4 of 12 months at the 10% significance level. At both scales increasing trends were concentrated in spring and summer months, while no winter trends were detected. Volume was shown to be increasing in most months experiencing increased intensity, and is a probable driver of the intensity trends observed. Title: Precipitation Intensity Trend Detection using Hourly and Daily Observations in Portland, Oregon Author: Cooley, Alexis, Chang, Heejun Year: 2017 The intensity of precipitation is expected to increase in response to climate change, but the regions where this may occur are unclear. The lack of certainty from climate models warrants an examination of trends in observational records. However, the temporal resolution of records may affect the success of trend detection. Daily observations are often used, but may be too coarse to detect changes. Sub-daily records may improve detection, but their value is not yet quantified. Using daily and hourly records from 24 rain gages in Portland, Oregon (OR), trends in precipitation intensity and volume are examined for the period of 1999–2015. Daily intensity is measured using the Simple Daily Intensity Index, and this method is adapted to measure hourly scale intensity. Kendall’s tau, a non-parametric correlation coefficient, is used for monotonic trend detection. Field significance and tests for spatial autocorrelation using Moran’s Index are used to determine the significance of group hypothesis tests. Results indicate that the hourly data is superior in trend detection when compared with daily data; more trends are detected with hourly scale data at both the 5% and 10% significance levels. Hourly records showed a significant increase in 6 of 12 months, while daily records showed a significant increase in 4 of 12 months at the 10% significance level. At both scales increasing trends were concentrated in spring and summer months, while no winter trends were detected. Volume was shown to be increasing in most months experiencing increased intensity, and is a probable driver of the intensity trends observed. Close

• 2. [Article] Assessing Mechanisms of Climate Change Impact on the Upland Forest Water Balance of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

  Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure for the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA) over the next century will have significant impacts on the river basin water balance, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing Mechanisms of Climate Change Impact on the Upland Forest Water Balance of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon Author: Turner, David P., Conklin, David R., Vache, Kellie B., Schwartz, Cynthia, Nolin, Anne, Chang, Heejun, Watson, Eric, Bolte, John P. Year: 2016 Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure for the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA) over the next century will have significant impacts on the river basin water balance, notably on the amount of evapotranspiration (ET). Mechanisms of impact on ET will be both direct and indirect, but there is limited understanding of their absolute and relative magnitudes. Here, we developed a spatially explicit, daily time-step, modeling infrastructure to simulate the basin-wide water balance that accounts for meteorological influences, as well as effects mediated by changing vegetation cover type, leaf area, and ecophysiology. Three CMIP5 climate scenarios (Lowclim, Reference, and HighClim) were run for the 2010–2100 period. Besides warmer temperatures, the climate scenarios were characterized by wetter winters and increasing vapor pressure deficits. In the mid-range Reference scenario, our landscape simulation model (Envision) projected a continuation of forest cover on the uplands but a threefold increase in area burned per year. A decline (12–30%) in basin-wide mean leaf area index (LAI) in forests was projected in all scenarios. The lower LAIs drove a corresponding decline in ET. In a sensitivity test, the effect of increasing CO2 on stomatal conductance induced a further substantial decrease (11–18%) in basin-wide mean ET. The net effect of decreases in ET and increases in winter precipitation was an increase in annual streamflow. These results support the inclusion of changes in land cover, land use, LAI, and ecophysiology in efforts to anticipate impacts of climate change on basin-scale water balances. Title: Assessing Mechanisms of Climate Change Impact on the Upland Forest Water Balance of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon Author: Turner, David P., Conklin, David R., Vache, Kellie B., Schwartz, Cynthia, Nolin, Anne, Chang, Heejun, Watson, Eric, Bolte, John P. Year: 2016 Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure for the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA) over the next century will have significant impacts on the river basin water balance, notably on the amount of evapotranspiration (ET). Mechanisms of impact on ET will be both direct and indirect, but there is limited understanding of their absolute and relative magnitudes. Here, we developed a spatially explicit, daily time-step, modeling infrastructure to simulate the basin-wide water balance that accounts for meteorological influences, as well as effects mediated by changing vegetation cover type, leaf area, and ecophysiology. Three CMIP5 climate scenarios (Lowclim, Reference, and HighClim) were run for the 2010–2100 period. Besides warmer temperatures, the climate scenarios were characterized by wetter winters and increasing vapor pressure deficits. In the mid-range Reference scenario, our landscape simulation model (Envision) projected a continuation of forest cover on the uplands but a threefold increase in area burned per year. A decline (12–30%) in basin-wide mean leaf area index (LAI) in forests was projected in all scenarios. The lower LAIs drove a corresponding decline in ET. In a sensitivity test, the effect of increasing CO2 on stomatal conductance induced a further substantial decrease (11–18%) in basin-wide mean ET. The net effect of decreases in ET and increases in winter precipitation was an increase in annual streamflow. These results support the inclusion of changes in land cover, land use, LAI, and ecophysiology in efforts to anticipate impacts of climate change on basin-scale water balances. Close

• 3. [Article] Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in the Upper Clackamas River Basin, Oregon, USA

  The Pacific Northwest of the USA is dependent on seasonal snowmelt for water resources that support its economy and aquatic ecosystems. Increased temperatures resulting from higher concentrations of atmospheric ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in the Upper Clackamas River Basin, Oregon, USA Author: Graves, David, Chang, Heejun Year: 2007 The Pacific Northwest of the USA is dependent on seasonal snowmelt for water resources that support its economy and aquatic ecosystems. Increased temperatures resulting from higher concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases may cause disruptions to these resources because of reductions in the annual snowpack and the earlier occurrence of seasonal snowmelt. We applied a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based distributed hydrologic model at a monthly scale to assess the effects of future climate change on runoff from the Upper Clackamas River Basin (UCB; located near Portland, Oregon, USA). Once validated using historic flow data, the model was run for 2 future time periods (2010–2039 and 2070–2099) using climate change simulations from 2 global circulation modelling groups (HadCM2 from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, and CGCM1 from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) as inputs. The model runs projected that mean peak snowpack in the study area will drop dramatically (36 to 49% by 2010–2039, and 83 to 88% by 2070–2099), resulting in earlier runoff and diminished spring and summer flows. Increases in mean winter runoff by 2070–2099 vary from moderate (13.7%) to large (46.4%), depending on the changes to precipitation projected by the general circulation models (GCMs). These results are similar to those of other studies in areas dependent on snowpack for seasonal runoff, but the reductions to snowpack are more severe in this study than in similar studies of the entire Columbia River Basin, presumably because the elevations of much of the Upper Clackamas Basin are near the current mid-winter snow line. Title: Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in the Upper Clackamas River Basin, Oregon, USA Author: Graves, David, Chang, Heejun Year: 2007 The Pacific Northwest of the USA is dependent on seasonal snowmelt for water resources that support its economy and aquatic ecosystems. Increased temperatures resulting from higher concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases may cause disruptions to these resources because of reductions in the annual snowpack and the earlier occurrence of seasonal snowmelt. We applied a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based distributed hydrologic model at a monthly scale to assess the effects of future climate change on runoff from the Upper Clackamas River Basin (UCB; located near Portland, Oregon, USA). Once validated using historic flow data, the model was run for 2 future time periods (2010–2039 and 2070–2099) using climate change simulations from 2 global circulation modelling groups (HadCM2 from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, and CGCM1 from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) as inputs. The model runs projected that mean peak snowpack in the study area will drop dramatically (36 to 49% by 2010–2039, and 83 to 88% by 2070–2099), resulting in earlier runoff and diminished spring and summer flows. Increases in mean winter runoff by 2070–2099 vary from moderate (13.7%) to large (46.4%), depending on the changes to precipitation projected by the general circulation models (GCMs). These results are similar to those of other studies in areas dependent on snowpack for seasonal runoff, but the reductions to snowpack are more severe in this study than in similar studies of the entire Columbia River Basin, presumably because the elevations of much of the Upper Clackamas Basin are near the current mid-winter snow line. Close

• 4. [Article] Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change

  This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-Won, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Melgoza, Rolando, Ruelas, David, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2011 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the period 1988-2006, and simulated for determining the probability of floods from 2020-2049. We surveyed stream cross sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined floodwater surface elevations using the HEC-RAS model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year floodwater surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. While vehicle miles traveled were not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle-hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Results indicate that any cost analysis is extremely sensitive to the occurrence of human fatalities or injuries and fairly insensitive to delay costs. In addition, this research presents a comprehensive classification of flooding costs, identifies preventative measures, and makes short- and long-term recommendations. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment, and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Title: Future Flooding Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure and Traffic Patterns Resulting from Climate Change Author: Chang, Heejun, Lafrenz, Martin, Jung, Il-Won, Figliozzi, Miguel A., Melgoza, Rolando, Ruelas, David, Platman, Deena, Pederson, Cindy Year: 2011 This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel survey, a hydraulic model, and a travel forecast model to develop an integrated impact assessment method. High-resolution climate change scenarios are based on the combinations of two emission scenarios and eight general circulation models. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was calibrated and validated for the period 1988-2006, and simulated for determining the probability of floods from 2020-2049. We surveyed stream cross sections at five road crossings for stream channel geometry and determined floodwater surface elevations using the HEC-RAS model. Four of the surveyed bridges and roadways were lower in elevation than the current 100-year floodwater surface elevation, leading to relatively frequent nuisance flooding. These roadway flooding events will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios in the future, but climate change impacts will depend on local geomorphic conditions. While vehicle miles traveled were not significantly affected by road closure, vehicle-hours delay demonstrated a greater impact from road closures, increasing by 10 percent in the Fanno Creek area. Results indicate that any cost analysis is extremely sensitive to the occurrence of human fatalities or injuries and fairly insensitive to delay costs. In addition, this research presents a comprehensive classification of flooding costs, identifies preventative measures, and makes short- and long-term recommendations. Our research demonstrated the usefulness of the integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment, and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management and transportation planning under increasing climate uncertainty. Close