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• 501. [Article] Exposure to Elemental Carbon, Organic Carbon, Nitrate, and Sulfate Fractions of Fine Particulate Matter and Risk of Preterm Birth in New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (2000–2005)

  Background: Particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) has been consistently associated with preterm birth (PTB) to varying degrees, but roles of PM2.5 species have been less studied. Objective: ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Exposure to Elemental Carbon, Organic Carbon, Nitrate, and Sulfate Fractions of Fine Particulate Matter and Risk of Preterm Birth in New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (2000–2005) Author: Rappazzo, Kristen M., Daniels, Julie L., Messer, Lynne C., Poole, Charles, Lobdell, Danelle T. Year: 2015 Background: Particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) has been consistently associated with preterm birth (PTB) to varying degrees, but roles of PM2.5 species have been less studied. Objective: We estimated risk differences (RD) of PTB (reported per 106 pregnancies) associated with change in ambient concentrations of elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), nitrates (NO3), and sulfates (SO4). Methods: From live birth certificates from three states, we constructed a cohort of singleton pregnancies at or beyond 20 weeks of gestation from 2000 through 2005 (n = 1,771,225; 8% PTB). We estimated mean species exposures for each week of gestation from monitor-corrected Community Multi-Scale Air Quality modeling data. RDs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for four PTB categories were estimated for each exposure using linear regression, adjusted for maternal race/ethnicity, marital status, education, age, smoking, maximum temperature, ozone, and season of conception. We also adjusted for other species in multi-species models. Results: RDs varied by exposure window and outcome period. EC was positively associated with PTB after 27 and before 35 weeks of gestation. For example, for a 0.25-μg/m3 increase in EC exposure during gestational week 9, RD = 96 (95% CI: –20, 213) and RD = 145 (95% CI: –50, 341) for PTB during weeks 28–31 and 32–34, respectively. Associations with OCs were null or negative. RDs for NO3 were elevated with exposure in early weeks of gestation, and null in later weeks. RDs for SO4 exposure were positively associated with PTB, though magnitude varied across gestational weeks. We observed effect measure modification for associations between EC and PTB by race/ethnicity and smoking status. Conclusion: EC and SO4 may contribute to associations between PM2.5 and PTB. Associations varied according to the timing of exposure and the timing of PTB. Title: Exposure to Elemental Carbon, Organic Carbon, Nitrate, and Sulfate Fractions of Fine Particulate Matter and Risk of Preterm Birth in New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (2000–2005) Author: Rappazzo, Kristen M., Daniels, Julie L., Messer, Lynne C., Poole, Charles, Lobdell, Danelle T. Year: 2015 Background: Particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) has been consistently associated with preterm birth (PTB) to varying degrees, but roles of PM2.5 species have been less studied. Objective: We estimated risk differences (RD) of PTB (reported per 106 pregnancies) associated with change in ambient concentrations of elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), nitrates (NO3), and sulfates (SO4). Methods: From live birth certificates from three states, we constructed a cohort of singleton pregnancies at or beyond 20 weeks of gestation from 2000 through 2005 (n = 1,771,225; 8% PTB). We estimated mean species exposures for each week of gestation from monitor-corrected Community Multi-Scale Air Quality modeling data. RDs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for four PTB categories were estimated for each exposure using linear regression, adjusted for maternal race/ethnicity, marital status, education, age, smoking, maximum temperature, ozone, and season of conception. We also adjusted for other species in multi-species models. Results: RDs varied by exposure window and outcome period. EC was positively associated with PTB after 27 and before 35 weeks of gestation. For example, for a 0.25-μg/m3 increase in EC exposure during gestational week 9, RD = 96 (95% CI: –20, 213) and RD = 145 (95% CI: –50, 341) for PTB during weeks 28–31 and 32–34, respectively. Associations with OCs were null or negative. RDs for NO3 were elevated with exposure in early weeks of gestation, and null in later weeks. RDs for SO4 exposure were positively associated with PTB, though magnitude varied across gestational weeks. We observed effect measure modification for associations between EC and PTB by race/ethnicity and smoking status. Conclusion: EC and SO4 may contribute to associations between PM2.5 and PTB. Associations varied according to the timing of exposure and the timing of PTB. Close

• 502. [Article] Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Influence of Land Use on Water Quality in Five Portland Area Creeks Representing Differing Levels of Urbanization

  While the negative effects of urban development on freshwater systems are well documented, impacts of human disturbance on water quality vary depending on land cover, local climate, and temporal and spatial ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Influence of Land Use on Water Quality in Five Portland Area Creeks Representing Differing Levels of Urbanization Author: Chang, Heejun, Steele, Madeline, Bonak, Zoe Year: 2011 While the negative effects of urban development on freshwater systems are well documented, impacts of human disturbance on water quality vary depending on land cover, local climate, and temporal and spatial scales of analysis. To better understand this variation, we analyzed water quality data for a total of 15 sites from six Portland, Oregon area creeks at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The creeks are characterized by differing levels of urban development, from relatively pristine to highly developed. More than ten years of monthly data gathered by the Portland Bureau of Environmental Services were used to analyze temporal trends, and five years of these data were used to analyze spatial patterns. Analytes of interest were specific conductivity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphorus, total suspended solids, and temperature. These variables were compared to contributing area land use metrics at three scales: full contributing sub-basin, 100-meter riparian corridor, and 50-meter riparian corridor. We calculated seven land use metrics: population density, street density, Green Streets density, percent low density development, percent high density development, percent forested area, and percent agriculture. We found Spearman?s Rank Correlation Coefficient between the water quality parameters for annual, wet, and dry seasons and the land use metrics at each spatial scale for each parameter. The same water quality data were also analyzed for correlations to same day as well as 3-, 5-, and 7-day antecedent precipitation to examine relationships between water quality and environmental moisture conditions. Additionally, we used a Seasonal Kendall test to search for temporal trends. For each site included in the temporal analysis, changes in population density and street density metrics from 2000 to 2010 were compared to changes in water quality. Results vary across space, but generally confirm that urban development has negatively impacted the creeks. Specific conductivity, total suspended solids and nitrate are particularly sensitive to the level of urban development, especially following rain events. This work will help to better understand and mitigate urbanization impacts on freshwater systems. Title: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Influence of Land Use on Water Quality in Five Portland Area Creeks Representing Differing Levels of Urbanization Author: Chang, Heejun, Steele, Madeline, Bonak, Zoe Year: 2011 While the negative effects of urban development on freshwater systems are well documented, impacts of human disturbance on water quality vary depending on land cover, local climate, and temporal and spatial scales of analysis. To better understand this variation, we analyzed water quality data for a total of 15 sites from six Portland, Oregon area creeks at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The creeks are characterized by differing levels of urban development, from relatively pristine to highly developed. More than ten years of monthly data gathered by the Portland Bureau of Environmental Services were used to analyze temporal trends, and five years of these data were used to analyze spatial patterns. Analytes of interest were specific conductivity, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphorus, total suspended solids, and temperature. These variables were compared to contributing area land use metrics at three scales: full contributing sub-basin, 100-meter riparian corridor, and 50-meter riparian corridor. We calculated seven land use metrics: population density, street density, Green Streets density, percent low density development, percent high density development, percent forested area, and percent agriculture. We found Spearman?s Rank Correlation Coefficient between the water quality parameters for annual, wet, and dry seasons and the land use metrics at each spatial scale for each parameter. The same water quality data were also analyzed for correlations to same day as well as 3-, 5-, and 7-day antecedent precipitation to examine relationships between water quality and environmental moisture conditions. Additionally, we used a Seasonal Kendall test to search for temporal trends. For each site included in the temporal analysis, changes in population density and street density metrics from 2000 to 2010 were compared to changes in water quality. Results vary across space, but generally confirm that urban development has negatively impacted the creeks. Specific conductivity, total suspended solids and nitrate are particularly sensitive to the level of urban development, especially following rain events. This work will help to better understand and mitigate urbanization impacts on freshwater systems. Close

• 503. [Article] Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories

  Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories Author: Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Lucash, Melissa S., Hom, John Year: 2012 Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer-term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de-stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration. Title: Divergent Carbon Dynamics under Climate Change in Forests with Diverse Soils, Tree Species, and Land Use Histories Author: Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Van Tuyl, Steve, Clark, Kenneth L., Lucash, Melissa S., Hom, John Year: 2012 Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer-term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de-stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration. Close

• 504. [Article] Macroinvertebrates and Excessive Fine Sediment Conditions in Oregon Coastal Streams

  The Pacific Coastal ecoregion contains large tracts of economically important forest lands that also serve as critical stream habitat for endangered Salmonids. Excessive fine sediment deposition in streams ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Macroinvertebrates and Excessive Fine Sediment Conditions in Oregon Coastal Streams Author: Edwards, Patrick Michael Year: 2014 The Pacific Coastal ecoregion contains large tracts of economically important forest lands that also serve as critical stream habitat for endangered Salmonids. Excessive fine sediment deposition in streams of this region is a major environmental concern in the region but difficult to measure directly. The use of stream invertebrates to monitor fine sediment conditions in streams requires careful consideration of several important factors that complicate their use as bioindicators including high spatial and temporal variability and covariance with other environmental variables. To evaluate the use of stream invertebrates as bioindicators of excessive fine sediment, three hypotheses were tested. The first hypothesis was that invertebrates would be related to broad-scale climate variables (Chapter 2). The second hypothesis was that functional aspects of the invertebrate community would serve as useful indicators of excessive fine sediment condition (Chapter 3). The third hypothesis was that invertebrates in streams with naturally high levels of sediment would be tolerant to fine sediment (<2 mm, Chapter 4). Hypotheses were tested using a temporal data set at two streams in western Oregon, spatial data from 214 sites across the Oregon Coast Range, and in-situ experiment conducted in streams with erosive or resistant geologies. In the temporal study, both invertebrate density and functional traits were positively related to El Nino strength (R2 range = 0.22-0.36, ρ range = 0.008-0.04) and air temperature (R2 range = 0.32-0.49, ρ range = 0.002-0.01). The spatial study identified several environmental and hydrological factors that exhibited strong negative controls on both fine sediment (Mantel r range 0.14-0.25, ρ range = 0.001-0.01) and invertebrate Scrapers (R2 range = 0.11-0.14, ρ range = 0.001-0.04). The result of the experimental study provide evidence that invertebrates in streams with erosive geologies exhibit tolerance to sediment addition when compared to invertebrates in resistant geologies (mean loss=15%, ρ <0.01) and that invertebrate grazing traits were most strongly associated with fine sediment dosing frequency (ρ <0.05). The findings of this research demonstrate the role of geology in shaping invertebrate communities and their functional response to fine sediment addition and identify functional indicators that may be useful in different geologic settings. For environmental managers in the Pacific Coastal ecoregion, these findings are of potential value in assisting with the identification of biologically-relevant changes in stream fine sediment conditions and support efforts to balance economic needs in the region while protecting critical Salmonid habitat. Title: Macroinvertebrates and Excessive Fine Sediment Conditions in Oregon Coastal Streams Author: Edwards, Patrick Michael Year: 2014 The Pacific Coastal ecoregion contains large tracts of economically important forest lands that also serve as critical stream habitat for endangered Salmonids. Excessive fine sediment deposition in streams of this region is a major environmental concern in the region but difficult to measure directly. The use of stream invertebrates to monitor fine sediment conditions in streams requires careful consideration of several important factors that complicate their use as bioindicators including high spatial and temporal variability and covariance with other environmental variables. To evaluate the use of stream invertebrates as bioindicators of excessive fine sediment, three hypotheses were tested. The first hypothesis was that invertebrates would be related to broad-scale climate variables (Chapter 2). The second hypothesis was that functional aspects of the invertebrate community would serve as useful indicators of excessive fine sediment condition (Chapter 3). The third hypothesis was that invertebrates in streams with naturally high levels of sediment would be tolerant to fine sediment (<2 mm, Chapter 4). Hypotheses were tested using a temporal data set at two streams in western Oregon, spatial data from 214 sites across the Oregon Coast Range, and in-situ experiment conducted in streams with erosive or resistant geologies. In the temporal study, both invertebrate density and functional traits were positively related to El Nino strength (R2 range = 0.22-0.36, ρ range = 0.008-0.04) and air temperature (R2 range = 0.32-0.49, ρ range = 0.002-0.01). The spatial study identified several environmental and hydrological factors that exhibited strong negative controls on both fine sediment (Mantel r range 0.14-0.25, ρ range = 0.001-0.01) and invertebrate Scrapers (R2 range = 0.11-0.14, ρ range = 0.001-0.04). The result of the experimental study provide evidence that invertebrates in streams with erosive geologies exhibit tolerance to sediment addition when compared to invertebrates in resistant geologies (mean loss=15%, ρ <0.01) and that invertebrate grazing traits were most strongly associated with fine sediment dosing frequency (ρ <0.05). The findings of this research demonstrate the role of geology in shaping invertebrate communities and their functional response to fine sediment addition and identify functional indicators that may be useful in different geologic settings. For environmental managers in the Pacific Coastal ecoregion, these findings are of potential value in assisting with the identification of biologically-relevant changes in stream fine sediment conditions and support efforts to balance economic needs in the region while protecting critical Salmonid habitat. Close

• 505. [Article] The biological properties of Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteriophage 7V

  The present study was undertaken to define the standard conditions for growth of bacteriophage 7V on its host Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain PS-7 and to determine the factors which affect the quantity and ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The biological properties of Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteriophage 7V Author: Schnider, Shirley Phillips Year: 1969 The present study was undertaken to define the standard conditions for growth of bacteriophage 7V on its host Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain PS-7 and to determine the factors which affect the quantity and quality of plaques in the plaque count assay. Observations from the single-step growth experiment and single-burst experiment are also included. Plaque count assays were performed under various environmental conditions. Conditions were selected as “standard” if they yielded: 1) relative maximum number of infective centers per ml of stock 7V phage, 2) clear, haloed plaques at least 2.0 mm in diameter, and 3) reproducible assays limited only by the sampling error. These conditions are: 1. fresh NBYE or NBYE agar for the growth medium 2. NYBE or buffered salts solution for diluents 3. Physiologically young cells in the log phase between 1-5 X 10⁸ bacteria/ml 4. Stock and diluted stock suspensions stored at refrigerator temperatures. Adsorption rate experiments which measured both unadsorbed phage and infective centers were performed in minimal media, minimal media supplemented with organic and and ionic cofactors, and complete media. Although overnight lysates of PS-7 in minimal media produced a high titer of phage, the rate of adsorption of phage 7V in PS-7 was extremely slow in minimal media. Addition of tryptophan caused a decrease in free phage without a corresponding increase in infective centers. Casamino acids plus tryptophan caused an increase in the velocity of the adsorption reaction which was less than the rate of adsorption of phage 7V to its host PS-7 in NBYE. In NBYE 90 percent of the initial phage were adsorbed in 5 minutes, but the recovery of phage as free phase of infective centers was not equal to the input of phage. These results suggest that this system requires a cofactor, organic, ionic, or both, in order that adsorption of phage 7V to its host PS-7 proceed at a maximum rate. And it further suggests that the incidence of abortive infection in this system is high. In this particular system under standard conditions it appears that the size of the plaques is controlled mainly by environmental factors, while the relative number of plaques is a characteristic of the system. Title: The biological properties of Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteriophage 7V Author: Schnider, Shirley Phillips Year: 1969 The present study was undertaken to define the standard conditions for growth of bacteriophage 7V on its host Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain PS-7 and to determine the factors which affect the quantity and quality of plaques in the plaque count assay. Observations from the single-step growth experiment and single-burst experiment are also included. Plaque count assays were performed under various environmental conditions. Conditions were selected as “standard” if they yielded: 1) relative maximum number of infective centers per ml of stock 7V phage, 2) clear, haloed plaques at least 2.0 mm in diameter, and 3) reproducible assays limited only by the sampling error. These conditions are: 1. fresh NBYE or NBYE agar for the growth medium 2. NYBE or buffered salts solution for diluents 3. Physiologically young cells in the log phase between 1-5 X 10⁸ bacteria/ml 4. Stock and diluted stock suspensions stored at refrigerator temperatures. Adsorption rate experiments which measured both unadsorbed phage and infective centers were performed in minimal media, minimal media supplemented with organic and and ionic cofactors, and complete media. Although overnight lysates of PS-7 in minimal media produced a high titer of phage, the rate of adsorption of phage 7V in PS-7 was extremely slow in minimal media. Addition of tryptophan caused a decrease in free phage without a corresponding increase in infective centers. Casamino acids plus tryptophan caused an increase in the velocity of the adsorption reaction which was less than the rate of adsorption of phage 7V to its host PS-7 in NBYE. In NBYE 90 percent of the initial phage were adsorbed in 5 minutes, but the recovery of phage as free phase of infective centers was not equal to the input of phage. These results suggest that this system requires a cofactor, organic, ionic, or both, in order that adsorption of phage 7V to its host PS-7 proceed at a maximum rate. And it further suggests that the incidence of abortive infection in this system is high. In this particular system under standard conditions it appears that the size of the plaques is controlled mainly by environmental factors, while the relative number of plaques is a characteristic of the system. Close

• 506. [Article] Modeling Techniques for Water Supply Forecasting in the Western United States

  Water supply forecasting in the western United States is the prediction of the volume of water passing a given point on a stream during the primary snowmelt runoff season. Most water supply forecasts are ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Modeling Techniques for Water Supply Forecasting in the Western United States Author: Garen, David Charles Year: 1992 Water supply forecasting in the western United States is the prediction of the volume of water passing a given point on a stream during the primary snowmelt runoff season. Most water supply forecasts are produced from multiple linear regression models using snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow measurements as independent variables. In recent years, conceptual watershed simulation models, typically using a time step of one day, have also been used to produce these forecasts. This study examines model usage for: water supply forecasting in the West and has three specific purposes. The first is to examine the traditional usage of multiple linear regression and develop improved regression techniques to overcome several recognized weaknesses in traditional practice. Four techniques have been used in this study to improve water supply forecasts based on regression. They are: (1) basing the regression model only on data: known at forecast time (no future data); (2) principal components regression; (3) cross-validation; and (4) systematic searching for optimal or near-optimal combinations of variables. The second purpose of the study is to develop a monthly streamflow simulation model suitable for use in water supply forecasting. Such a model has not previously been used in this application, and it provides a forecasting tool midway in complexity between regression procedures and conceptual watershed simulation models. The third purpose of the study is to compare the accuracy of forecasts from regression, the monthly model developed here, and two conceptual watershed simulation models. It has generally been assumed, but not tested, that complex simulation models will give more accurate forecasts than simpler models. This study attempts to begin determining if this is true. Conceptual modeling results from previous studies on three basins in Idaho and Montana were obtained to represent current practice in the usage of this type of model. The results of the study led to the following conclusions: (1) significant improvements in forecast accuracy over past practice with regression can be obtained by the use of the four techniques developed here; (2) the monthly model performed better than the conceptual watershed models most of the time, for both seasonal volumes and monthly flows; (3) for the three test watersheds, regression provided the best forecast accuracy among the three modeling techniques most of the time, for both seasonal volumes and monthly flows; (4) optimal use of conceptual watershed models requires automated calibration schemes; and (5) in basins of complex orography, denser data networks will be required to calculate meaningful values of mean areal precipitation. This study has contributed to the practice of water supply forecasting by providing improvements to regression techniques, providing a new monthly model, developing a mean areal precipitation and temperature procedure based on kriging, and giving some initial direction for further investigations in the use of conceptual watershed models. The inability of the two simulation approaches to surpass regression in forecast accuracy brings up several issues with respect to modeling. These issues are in the areas of model calibration, model conceptualization, spatial and temporal aggregation, and areal averaging of input data. Further investigation is required to elucidate these issues before clear conclusions can be made about the relative forecasting abilities of simple and complex models. Further investigation is also required to study water management decision making and the kinds and accuracies of forecast information required to optimize these decisions. Title: Modeling Techniques for Water Supply Forecasting in the Western United States Author: Garen, David Charles Year: 1992 Water supply forecasting in the western United States is the prediction of the volume of water passing a given point on a stream during the primary snowmelt runoff season. Most water supply forecasts are produced from multiple linear regression models using snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow measurements as independent variables. In recent years, conceptual watershed simulation models, typically using a time step of one day, have also been used to produce these forecasts. This study examines model usage for: water supply forecasting in the West and has three specific purposes. The first is to examine the traditional usage of multiple linear regression and develop improved regression techniques to overcome several recognized weaknesses in traditional practice. Four techniques have been used in this study to improve water supply forecasts based on regression. They are: (1) basing the regression model only on data: known at forecast time (no future data); (2) principal components regression; (3) cross-validation; and (4) systematic searching for optimal or near-optimal combinations of variables. The second purpose of the study is to develop a monthly streamflow simulation model suitable for use in water supply forecasting. Such a model has not previously been used in this application, and it provides a forecasting tool midway in complexity between regression procedures and conceptual watershed simulation models. The third purpose of the study is to compare the accuracy of forecasts from regression, the monthly model developed here, and two conceptual watershed simulation models. It has generally been assumed, but not tested, that complex simulation models will give more accurate forecasts than simpler models. This study attempts to begin determining if this is true. Conceptual modeling results from previous studies on three basins in Idaho and Montana were obtained to represent current practice in the usage of this type of model. The results of the study led to the following conclusions: (1) significant improvements in forecast accuracy over past practice with regression can be obtained by the use of the four techniques developed here; (2) the monthly model performed better than the conceptual watershed models most of the time, for both seasonal volumes and monthly flows; (3) for the three test watersheds, regression provided the best forecast accuracy among the three modeling techniques most of the time, for both seasonal volumes and monthly flows; (4) optimal use of conceptual watershed models requires automated calibration schemes; and (5) in basins of complex orography, denser data networks will be required to calculate meaningful values of mean areal precipitation. This study has contributed to the practice of water supply forecasting by providing improvements to regression techniques, providing a new monthly model, developing a mean areal precipitation and temperature procedure based on kriging, and giving some initial direction for further investigations in the use of conceptual watershed models. The inability of the two simulation approaches to surpass regression in forecast accuracy brings up several issues with respect to modeling. These issues are in the areas of model calibration, model conceptualization, spatial and temporal aggregation, and areal averaging of input data. Further investigation is required to elucidate these issues before clear conclusions can be made about the relative forecasting abilities of simple and complex models. Further investigation is also required to study water management decision making and the kinds and accuracies of forecast information required to optimize these decisions. Close

• 507. [Article] Hydrogeologic Characterization of Dutch Canyon, Scappoose, Oregon

  Dutch Canyon is located directly west of the City of Scappoose in Columbia County Oregon. This area is proximate to Highway 30, a major access corridor to downtown Portland, and is experiencing a population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrogeologic Characterization of Dutch Canyon, Scappoose, Oregon Author: Wagner, Derrick Lee Year: 2013 Dutch Canyon is located directly west of the City of Scappoose in Columbia County Oregon. This area is proximate to Highway 30, a major access corridor to downtown Portland, and is experiencing a population increase, which is expected to continue and likely accelerate. As a result, there is growing pressure on water resources. Individual and community efforts to utilize groundwater resources have been hampered by generally poor groundwater yields and water quality concerns outside of the Columbia River corridor and a lack of published hydrogeologic information for the region. The intent of this study is to identify the water-bearing units present in Dutch Canyon and to characterize water quality within these units. The physical hydrogeology of Dutch Canyon was assessed mainly through the collation of 196 local well reports that contained lithologic information from which individual hydrostratigraphic units were identified and characterized. Hydraulic parameters for individual units were estimated using pump rates and drawdowns provided in select well reports. Water quality for the units identified was assessed through the collection of 48 samples of well, spring, and stream water from Dutch Canyon. Measurements of pH, specific conductivity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, reduction potential, and alkalinity were recorded in the field and samples were analyzed for major ions, arsenic, and stable isotopes. The major water-bearing units of Dutch Canyon were separated into five physically distinct hydrostratigrapic units: the lower, middle, and upper units of the sedimentary Lower Miocene Scappoose Formation, and the Wapshilla Ridge and Ortley members of the Lower to Middle Miocene Grande Ronde Basalt. Groundwater flow likely occurs in discrete, relatively thin (~2- to 10-m thick) zones within the Grand Ronde Basalt members. These units only occur along the slopes and ridges of Dutch Canyon west of the Portland Hills Fault, which parallels the eastern margin of the study area. The Scappoose Formation units contain clay- and silt-rich layers and lenses that limit the useable aquifer volume and vertical movement of groundwaters. In general, all hydrostratrigraphic units east of the Portland Hills Fault have low transmissivities and water wells completed in each of them are commonly low- yielding wells, though there are some exceptions. Geochemically, the lower and middle units of the Scappoose Formation were similar to one another with many wells yielding groundwater with high total dissolved solids (TDS) contents (mean TDS = 330 mg L-1; n = 27). Nearly 20% of the wells sampled that were screened in these units (5 of 27) yielded groundwater that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Secondary (non-enforceable) Drinking Water Regulation standard of 500 mg L-1 TDS. The upper unit of the Scappoose Formation and the overlying Grande Ronde Basalt members generally yield water with lower TDS contents (mean < 200 mg L-1; maximum = 342 mg L-1; n = 20). Groundwater resources in Dutch Canyon are limited and low well yields are common. The primary water quality concern is saline water, which is generally found in the lower and middle units of the Scappoose Formation near the valley floor. Low recharge rates determined from hydrograph analysis of stream discharge measurements are consistent with the geology and steep terrain of the area and further limit the available groundwater and the degree of flushing of what may be connate waters in the deeper units. Title: Hydrogeologic Characterization of Dutch Canyon, Scappoose, Oregon Author: Wagner, Derrick Lee Year: 2013 Dutch Canyon is located directly west of the City of Scappoose in Columbia County Oregon. This area is proximate to Highway 30, a major access corridor to downtown Portland, and is experiencing a population increase, which is expected to continue and likely accelerate. As a result, there is growing pressure on water resources. Individual and community efforts to utilize groundwater resources have been hampered by generally poor groundwater yields and water quality concerns outside of the Columbia River corridor and a lack of published hydrogeologic information for the region. The intent of this study is to identify the water-bearing units present in Dutch Canyon and to characterize water quality within these units. The physical hydrogeology of Dutch Canyon was assessed mainly through the collation of 196 local well reports that contained lithologic information from which individual hydrostratigraphic units were identified and characterized. Hydraulic parameters for individual units were estimated using pump rates and drawdowns provided in select well reports. Water quality for the units identified was assessed through the collection of 48 samples of well, spring, and stream water from Dutch Canyon. Measurements of pH, specific conductivity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, reduction potential, and alkalinity were recorded in the field and samples were analyzed for major ions, arsenic, and stable isotopes. The major water-bearing units of Dutch Canyon were separated into five physically distinct hydrostratigrapic units: the lower, middle, and upper units of the sedimentary Lower Miocene Scappoose Formation, and the Wapshilla Ridge and Ortley members of the Lower to Middle Miocene Grande Ronde Basalt. Groundwater flow likely occurs in discrete, relatively thin (~2- to 10-m thick) zones within the Grand Ronde Basalt members. These units only occur along the slopes and ridges of Dutch Canyon west of the Portland Hills Fault, which parallels the eastern margin of the study area. The Scappoose Formation units contain clay- and silt-rich layers and lenses that limit the useable aquifer volume and vertical movement of groundwaters. In general, all hydrostratrigraphic units east of the Portland Hills Fault have low transmissivities and water wells completed in each of them are commonly low- yielding wells, though there are some exceptions. Geochemically, the lower and middle units of the Scappoose Formation were similar to one another with many wells yielding groundwater with high total dissolved solids (TDS) contents (mean TDS = 330 mg L-1; n = 27). Nearly 20% of the wells sampled that were screened in these units (5 of 27) yielded groundwater that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Secondary (non-enforceable) Drinking Water Regulation standard of 500 mg L-1 TDS. The upper unit of the Scappoose Formation and the overlying Grande Ronde Basalt members generally yield water with lower TDS contents (mean < 200 mg L-1; maximum = 342 mg L-1; n = 20). Groundwater resources in Dutch Canyon are limited and low well yields are common. The primary water quality concern is saline water, which is generally found in the lower and middle units of the Scappoose Formation near the valley floor. Low recharge rates determined from hydrograph analysis of stream discharge measurements are consistent with the geology and steep terrain of the area and further limit the available groundwater and the degree of flushing of what may be connate waters in the deeper units. Close

• 508. [Article] Antimicrobial-Resistant Infections Among Postpartum Women at a Ugandan Referral Hospital

  Introduction Puerperal sepsis causes 10% of maternal deaths in Africa, but prospective studies on incidence, microbiology and antimicrobial resistance are lacking. Methods We performed a prospective cohort ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Antimicrobial-Resistant Infections Among Postpartum Women at a Ugandan Referral Hospital Author: Bebell, Lisa M., Ngonzi, Joseph, Bazira, Joel, Fajardo, Yarine, Boatin, Adeline A., Siedner, Mark J., Bassett, Ingrid V., Nyehangane, Dan, Nanjebe, Deborah, van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre, Mwanga-Amumpaire, Juliet, Bangsberg, David R., Riley, Laura E., Boum, Yap, II Year: 2017 Introduction Puerperal sepsis causes 10% of maternal deaths in Africa, but prospective studies on incidence, microbiology and antimicrobial resistance are lacking. Methods We performed a prospective cohort study of 4,231 Ugandan women presenting to a regional referral hospital for delivery or postpartum care, measured vital signs after delivery, performed structured physical exam, symptom questionnaire, and microbiologic evaluation of febrile and hypothermic women. Malaria rapid diagnostic testing, blood and urine cultures were performed aseptically and processed at Epicentre Mbarara Research Centre. Antimicrobial susceptibility and breakpoints were determined using disk diffusion per EUCAST standards. Hospital diagnoses, treatments and outcomes were abstracted from patient charts. Results Mean age was 25 years, 12% were HIV-infected, and 50% had cesarean deliveries. Approximately 5% (205/4176) with ≥1 temperature measurement recorded developed postpartum fever or hypothermia; blood and urine samples were collected from 174 (85%), and 17 others were evaluated clinically. Eighty-four (48%) had at least one confirmed source of infection: 39% (76/193) clinical postpartum endometritis, 14% (25/174) urinary tract infection (UTI), 3% (5/174) bloodstream infection. Another 3% (5/174) had malaria. Overall, 30/174 (17%) had positive blood or urine cultures, and Acinetobacter species were the most common bacteria isolated. Of 25 Gram-negatives isolated, 20 (80%) were multidrug-resistant and cefepime non-susceptible. Conclusions For women in rural Uganda with postpartum fever, we found a high rate of antibiotic resistance among cultured urinary and bloodstream infections, including cephalosporin-resistant Acinetobacter species. Increasing availability of microbiology testing to inform appropriate antibiotic use, development of antimicrobial stewardship programs, and strengthening infection control practices should be high priorities. Title: Antimicrobial-Resistant Infections Among Postpartum Women at a Ugandan Referral Hospital Author: Bebell, Lisa M., Ngonzi, Joseph, Bazira, Joel, Fajardo, Yarine, Boatin, Adeline A., Siedner, Mark J., Bassett, Ingrid V., Nyehangane, Dan, Nanjebe, Deborah, van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre, Mwanga-Amumpaire, Juliet, Bangsberg, David R., Riley, Laura E., Boum, Yap, II Year: 2017 Introduction Puerperal sepsis causes 10% of maternal deaths in Africa, but prospective studies on incidence, microbiology and antimicrobial resistance are lacking. Methods We performed a prospective cohort study of 4,231 Ugandan women presenting to a regional referral hospital for delivery or postpartum care, measured vital signs after delivery, performed structured physical exam, symptom questionnaire, and microbiologic evaluation of febrile and hypothermic women. Malaria rapid diagnostic testing, blood and urine cultures were performed aseptically and processed at Epicentre Mbarara Research Centre. Antimicrobial susceptibility and breakpoints were determined using disk diffusion per EUCAST standards. Hospital diagnoses, treatments and outcomes were abstracted from patient charts. Results Mean age was 25 years, 12% were HIV-infected, and 50% had cesarean deliveries. Approximately 5% (205/4176) with ≥1 temperature measurement recorded developed postpartum fever or hypothermia; blood and urine samples were collected from 174 (85%), and 17 others were evaluated clinically. Eighty-four (48%) had at least one confirmed source of infection: 39% (76/193) clinical postpartum endometritis, 14% (25/174) urinary tract infection (UTI), 3% (5/174) bloodstream infection. Another 3% (5/174) had malaria. Overall, 30/174 (17%) had positive blood or urine cultures, and Acinetobacter species were the most common bacteria isolated. Of 25 Gram-negatives isolated, 20 (80%) were multidrug-resistant and cefepime non-susceptible. Conclusions For women in rural Uganda with postpartum fever, we found a high rate of antibiotic resistance among cultured urinary and bloodstream infections, including cephalosporin-resistant Acinetobacter species. Increasing availability of microbiology testing to inform appropriate antibiotic use, development of antimicrobial stewardship programs, and strengthening infection control practices should be high priorities. Close

• 509. [Article] Metacommunity Structure of Zooplankton in River Networks: Roles of Environmental and Spatial Factors

  Zooplankton in river systems have seldom been studied in the context of metacommunity ecology. Spatial factors (e.g., river connectivity, directionality, and man-made dams) may play a key role in influencing ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Metacommunity Structure of Zooplankton in River Networks: Roles of Environmental and Spatial Factors Author: Zhao, Kun, Song, Kun, Pan, Yangdong, Wang, Lizhu Year: 2017 Zooplankton in river systems have seldom been studied in the context of metacommunity ecology. Spatial factors (e.g., river connectivity, directionality, and man-made dams) may play a key role in influencing the metacommunity structure of rotifers because of their small body size and weak mobility. In contrast, local environmental factors (e.g., physicochemical habitat) may be more important to crustaceans due to their larger body size and stronger mobility. We sampled zooplankton and environmental factors during wet and dry seasons from 47 sites along the Ying River in China to assess the roles of the spatial and environmental factors in structuring zooplankton metacommunities. We used Moran’s eigenvector map and asymmetric eigenvector map to model the influences of river connectivity, directionality, and man-made dams on zooplankton metacommunity structure. We then used partial redundancy analysis to identify individual and interactive effects of spatial and environmental factors on both the entire zooplankton assemblages and two zooplankton groups of different body sizes and mobility. A total of 101 taxa were identified and taxa richness was higher in the wet season (72) than in the dry season (58). Zooplankton assemblages were primarily dominated by rotifers. For the dry season, environmental factors such as total nitrogen, water temperature, and pH explained a significant portion of variation in zooplankton community; river connectivity was more important than river directionality to zooplankton metacommunity structure. For the wet season, spatial factors were more influential than environmental factors such as dissolved oxygen and water transparency; river directionality played an important role in influencing the spatial structures of both environmental condition and zooplankton metacommunity. We also found significant effects of man-made dams on zooplankton metacommunity structure. Spatial factors are more influential in structuring small body size and weak mobility rotifer communities, while environmental factors are more important in determining the variation of crustaceans due to their larger body size and stronger mobility. We concluded that river connectivity and directionality should be considered as key factors for better understanding the spatial processes of planktonic passive dispersers in river networks. Our study provides new insight on understanding riverine zooplankton metacommunity ecology and contributes to the knowledge of river ecosystem health monitoring and management. Title: Metacommunity Structure of Zooplankton in River Networks: Roles of Environmental and Spatial Factors Author: Zhao, Kun, Song, Kun, Pan, Yangdong, Wang, Lizhu Year: 2017 Zooplankton in river systems have seldom been studied in the context of metacommunity ecology. Spatial factors (e.g., river connectivity, directionality, and man-made dams) may play a key role in influencing the metacommunity structure of rotifers because of their small body size and weak mobility. In contrast, local environmental factors (e.g., physicochemical habitat) may be more important to crustaceans due to their larger body size and stronger mobility. We sampled zooplankton and environmental factors during wet and dry seasons from 47 sites along the Ying River in China to assess the roles of the spatial and environmental factors in structuring zooplankton metacommunities. We used Moran’s eigenvector map and asymmetric eigenvector map to model the influences of river connectivity, directionality, and man-made dams on zooplankton metacommunity structure. We then used partial redundancy analysis to identify individual and interactive effects of spatial and environmental factors on both the entire zooplankton assemblages and two zooplankton groups of different body sizes and mobility. A total of 101 taxa were identified and taxa richness was higher in the wet season (72) than in the dry season (58). Zooplankton assemblages were primarily dominated by rotifers. For the dry season, environmental factors such as total nitrogen, water temperature, and pH explained a significant portion of variation in zooplankton community; river connectivity was more important than river directionality to zooplankton metacommunity structure. For the wet season, spatial factors were more influential than environmental factors such as dissolved oxygen and water transparency; river directionality played an important role in influencing the spatial structures of both environmental condition and zooplankton metacommunity. We also found significant effects of man-made dams on zooplankton metacommunity structure. Spatial factors are more influential in structuring small body size and weak mobility rotifer communities, while environmental factors are more important in determining the variation of crustaceans due to their larger body size and stronger mobility. We concluded that river connectivity and directionality should be considered as key factors for better understanding the spatial processes of planktonic passive dispersers in river networks. Our study provides new insight on understanding riverine zooplankton metacommunity ecology and contributes to the knowledge of river ecosystem health monitoring and management. Close

• 510. [Article] OSMB Final Report: Task 5. Zebra and Quagga Mussel Early-Detection Monitoring in High Risk Oregon Waters

  Neither zebra nor quagga mussels (Dreissena polymorpha and D. rostriformis bugensis, respectively) were detected by Portland State University (PSU) during their early detection sampling in Oregon water ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: OSMB Final Report: Task 5. Zebra and Quagga Mussel Early-Detection Monitoring in High Risk Oregon Waters Author: Wells, Steve W., Sytsma, Mark Year: 2014 Neither zebra nor quagga mussels (Dreissena polymorpha and D. rostriformis bugensis, respectively) were detected by Portland State University (PSU) during their early detection sampling in Oregon water bodies during 2013. PSU conducted sampling for planktonic larvae, juvenile, and adult mussels at nine Oregon water bodies during the July to August period coinciding with water temperatures favorable for mussel spawning. A total of 113 plankton samples were collected and over 1.6 million liters of lake water were filtered through 63-μm mesh nets during plankton sample collection. The greatest sampling effort occurred in East Lake, Prineville Reservoir, and Paulina Lake; these water bodies were identified as high risk for both mussel establishment and introduction according to Wells et al. (2009). The sampling effort, however, was fairly uniform amongst the targeted water bodies, and sampling also occurred in Upper Klamath Lake, Howard Prairie Lake, Hyatt Reservoir, Emigrant Lake, Ochoco Reservoir, and Lake Billy Chinook. Non-native invertebrates and macrophytes were opportunistically collected during Dreissena spp. sampling in 2013. Corbicula fluminea (Asian clam) straight-hinge juveniles were collected in plankton samples from East Lake and Howard Prairie Lake. Potamopyrgus antipodarum (New Zealand mud snails) were collected in Lake Billy Chinook. Radix auricularia (big-ear radix) snails were collected in Hyatt Reservoir, Lake Billy Chinook and Paulina Lake. Orconectes neglectus (ringed crayfish) were collected in Hyatt Reservoir. Potamogeton crispus (curly leaf pondweed) were collected in Howard Prairie Lake, Hyatt Reservoir, Lake Billy Chinook, and Upper Klamath Lake. Most of these collections were not the first detections for these species in these locations; however, to the authors’ knowledge, the following represent first detections: R. auricularia in Hyatt Reservoir and Paulina Lake, O. neglectus in Hyatt Reservoir and C. fluminea in Howard Prairie Lake. Title: OSMB Final Report: Task 5. Zebra and Quagga Mussel Early-Detection Monitoring in High Risk Oregon Waters Author: Wells, Steve W., Sytsma, Mark Year: 2014 Neither zebra nor quagga mussels (Dreissena polymorpha and D. rostriformis bugensis, respectively) were detected by Portland State University (PSU) during their early detection sampling in Oregon water bodies during 2013. PSU conducted sampling for planktonic larvae, juvenile, and adult mussels at nine Oregon water bodies during the July to August period coinciding with water temperatures favorable for mussel spawning. A total of 113 plankton samples were collected and over 1.6 million liters of lake water were filtered through 63-μm mesh nets during plankton sample collection. The greatest sampling effort occurred in East Lake, Prineville Reservoir, and Paulina Lake; these water bodies were identified as high risk for both mussel establishment and introduction according to Wells et al. (2009). The sampling effort, however, was fairly uniform amongst the targeted water bodies, and sampling also occurred in Upper Klamath Lake, Howard Prairie Lake, Hyatt Reservoir, Emigrant Lake, Ochoco Reservoir, and Lake Billy Chinook. Non-native invertebrates and macrophytes were opportunistically collected during Dreissena spp. sampling in 2013. Corbicula fluminea (Asian clam) straight-hinge juveniles were collected in plankton samples from East Lake and Howard Prairie Lake. Potamopyrgus antipodarum (New Zealand mud snails) were collected in Lake Billy Chinook. Radix auricularia (big-ear radix) snails were collected in Hyatt Reservoir, Lake Billy Chinook and Paulina Lake. Orconectes neglectus (ringed crayfish) were collected in Hyatt Reservoir. Potamogeton crispus (curly leaf pondweed) were collected in Howard Prairie Lake, Hyatt Reservoir, Lake Billy Chinook, and Upper Klamath Lake. Most of these collections were not the first detections for these species in these locations; however, to the authors’ knowledge, the following represent first detections: R. auricularia in Hyatt Reservoir and Paulina Lake, O. neglectus in Hyatt Reservoir and C. fluminea in Howard Prairie Lake. Close