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• 1. [Article] Development of a hydrologic model to explore impacts of climate change on water resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho

  In the Western United States where 50-70% of annual precipitation comes in the form of winter snowfall, water supplies may be particularly sensitive to a warming climate. We worked with a network of stakeholders ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Development of a hydrologic model to explore impacts of climate change on water resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho Author: Inouye, Allison Marshall In the Western United States where 50-70% of annual precipitation comes in the form of winter snowfall, water supplies may be particularly sensitive to a warming climate. We worked with a network of stakeholders in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho, to explore how climate change may affect water resources and identify strategies that may help mitigate the impacts. The 8,300 square kilometer region in central Idaho contains a mixture of public and private land ownership, a diversity of landcover ranging from steep forested headwaters to expansive desert shrublands to a concentrated area of urban development that has experienced a quadrupling of population since the 1970s. With nearly 60% of precipitation falling as winter snow, stakeholders expressed concern regarding the vulnerability of the quantity and timing of seasonal snowpack as well as surface water supplies used primarily for agricultural irrigation under projected climate change. Here, we achieve two objectives. The first is the development of a hydrologic model to represent the dynamics of the surface water system in the Big Wood Basin. We use the semi-distributed model Envision-Flow to represent surface water hydrology, reservoir operations, and agricultural irrigation. We calibrated the model using a multi-criteria objective function that considered three metrics related to streamflow and one metric related to snow water equivalent. The model achieved higher an efficiency of 0.74 for the main stem of the Big Wood River and 0.50 for the Camas Creek tributary during the validation period. The second objective is an analysis of the Big Wood Basin hydrology under alternative future climate scenarios. We forced the calibrated model with three downscaled CMIP5 climate model inputs representing a range of possible future conditions over the period 2010-2070. The climate models simulate an increase in basin average annual air temperature ranging from 1.6-5.7oC in the 2060s compared to the 1980-2009 average. The climate models show less of a clear trend regarding precipitation but in general, one model simulates precipitation patterns similar to historic, one is slightly wetter than historic, and one is slightly drier than historic by the mid-21st century. Under these future climate scenarios, the depth of April 1 SWE may decline by as much as 92% in the 2060s compared to the historic average. Mid to high elevations exhibit the largest reductions in SWE. Simulated streamflows show a shift in timing, with peak flows occurring up to three weeks earlier and center of timing from two to seven weeks earlier in the 2050-2069 period compared to the historic period. Reduced peak flows of 14-70% were simulated by mid-century. The simulated total annual streamflow, though, fell within the historic interquartile range for most years in the future period. These and other metrics considered suggest that the surface water hydrology of the Big Wood Basin is likely to be impacted by climate change. If the natural water storage provided by the annual snowpack is reduced and timing of streamflows shifts, water resource use and management may need to change in the future. This work provides a foundation from which to explore alternative management scenarios. The approach used here can be transferred to other watersheds to further assess how water resources may be affected by climate change. Title: Development of a hydrologic model to explore impacts of climate change on water resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho Author: Inouye, Allison Marshall In the Western United States where 50-70% of annual precipitation comes in the form of winter snowfall, water supplies may be particularly sensitive to a warming climate. We worked with a network of stakeholders in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho, to explore how climate change may affect water resources and identify strategies that may help mitigate the impacts. The 8,300 square kilometer region in central Idaho contains a mixture of public and private land ownership, a diversity of landcover ranging from steep forested headwaters to expansive desert shrublands to a concentrated area of urban development that has experienced a quadrupling of population since the 1970s. With nearly 60% of precipitation falling as winter snow, stakeholders expressed concern regarding the vulnerability of the quantity and timing of seasonal snowpack as well as surface water supplies used primarily for agricultural irrigation under projected climate change. Here, we achieve two objectives. The first is the development of a hydrologic model to represent the dynamics of the surface water system in the Big Wood Basin. We use the semi-distributed model Envision-Flow to represent surface water hydrology, reservoir operations, and agricultural irrigation. We calibrated the model using a multi-criteria objective function that considered three metrics related to streamflow and one metric related to snow water equivalent. The model achieved higher an efficiency of 0.74 for the main stem of the Big Wood River and 0.50 for the Camas Creek tributary during the validation period. The second objective is an analysis of the Big Wood Basin hydrology under alternative future climate scenarios. We forced the calibrated model with three downscaled CMIP5 climate model inputs representing a range of possible future conditions over the period 2010-2070. The climate models simulate an increase in basin average annual air temperature ranging from 1.6-5.7oC in the 2060s compared to the 1980-2009 average. The climate models show less of a clear trend regarding precipitation but in general, one model simulates precipitation patterns similar to historic, one is slightly wetter than historic, and one is slightly drier than historic by the mid-21st century. Under these future climate scenarios, the depth of April 1 SWE may decline by as much as 92% in the 2060s compared to the historic average. Mid to high elevations exhibit the largest reductions in SWE. Simulated streamflows show a shift in timing, with peak flows occurring up to three weeks earlier and center of timing from two to seven weeks earlier in the 2050-2069 period compared to the historic period. Reduced peak flows of 14-70% were simulated by mid-century. The simulated total annual streamflow, though, fell within the historic interquartile range for most years in the future period. These and other metrics considered suggest that the surface water hydrology of the Big Wood Basin is likely to be impacted by climate change. If the natural water storage provided by the annual snowpack is reduced and timing of streamflows shifts, water resource use and management may need to change in the future. This work provides a foundation from which to explore alternative management scenarios. The approach used here can be transferred to other watersheds to further assess how water resources may be affected by climate change. Close

• 2. [Article] Characterization and spatial distribution of particulate organic matter in the Arctic Ocean

  Water samples from the Arctic Ocean were analyzed in order to assess the present nature of particulate organic matter and investigate the effect of climate-driven changes on the ecology of the region. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Characterization and spatial distribution of particulate organic matter in the Arctic Ocean Author: Corvi, Elizabeth R Water samples from the Arctic Ocean were analyzed in order to assess the present nature of particulate organic matter and investigate the effect of climate-driven changes on the ecology of the region. 661 individual surface water samples and 216 samples from CTD casts were collected from the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas during USCGS Healy’s cruise in October 2012 (HLY1203). These samples were analyzed for particulate organic carbon and particulate nitrogen contents to spatially map the distribution of organic matter present in these waters at this time. The concentrations measured reveal differing amounts of organic material in the separate seas and are consistent with contrasting levels of productivity associated with different degrees of water column stratification. Comparison with optical data indicates variation in particle compositions, suggesting a variety of carbon sources. Finally, these measurements have the potential to assess changes in the carbon cycle and the dynamics organic matter in Arctic waters under rapidly changing conditions associated with climate change. Title: Characterization and spatial distribution of particulate organic matter in the Arctic Ocean Author: Corvi, Elizabeth R Water samples from the Arctic Ocean were analyzed in order to assess the present nature of particulate organic matter and investigate the effect of climate-driven changes on the ecology of the region. 661 individual surface water samples and 216 samples from CTD casts were collected from the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas during USCGS Healy’s cruise in October 2012 (HLY1203). These samples were analyzed for particulate organic carbon and particulate nitrogen contents to spatially map the distribution of organic matter present in these waters at this time. The concentrations measured reveal differing amounts of organic material in the separate seas and are consistent with contrasting levels of productivity associated with different degrees of water column stratification. Comparison with optical data indicates variation in particle compositions, suggesting a variety of carbon sources. Finally, these measurements have the potential to assess changes in the carbon cycle and the dynamics organic matter in Arctic waters under rapidly changing conditions associated with climate change. Close

• 3. [Article] Characterizing Linkages Between the Climate, Cryosphere, and Impacts on Run-of-River Hydropower in Data-Sparse Mountain Environments

  In many regions of the world, a significant portion of the surface water originates in mountain headwaters where the timing and magnitude of streamflow is largely dictated by the seasonal storage of precipitation ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Characterizing Linkages Between the Climate, Cryosphere, and Impacts on Run-of-River Hydropower in Data-Sparse Mountain Environments Author: Mosier, Thomas M. In many regions of the world, a significant portion of the surface water originates in mountain headwaters where the timing and magnitude of streamflow is largely dictated by the seasonal storage of precipitation as snowpack and long-term storage as glaciers. Accumulation, persistence, and melt of snow and ice are functions of the climate in which they exist and therefore respond to changes in that climate. One important use of water in many regions is for hydropower energy production. While reservoir-based hydropower infrastructure has some ability to absorb changes in timing of streamflow, run-of-river hydropower infrastructure does not. Thus, in assessing the economic feasibility of new or existing run-of-river infrastructure, it is important to account for potential impacts climate change may have over the lifetime of the project. Projecting impacts of climate change on surface water resources, and in particular on run-of-river hydropower resource potential, requires robustly characterizing the linkages between the climate, cryosphere, and streamflow. Two obstacles to increasing our understanding of mountain systems are the sparsity of observation data and complexity of weather patterns. The first part of my research addresses the issue of climate data availability in mountain regions through development of statistical models to characterize the high-spatial resolution distribution of historic and projected future precipitation and temperature. I demonstrate these climate products through projecting long-term changes in snowfall for the Alaska Range, Alps, Central Andes, and Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindu Kush ranges. I then present a framework for assessing conceptual cryosphere hydrology models and implement the framework for two long-term glacier study sites in Alaska, USA. Using this framework, I identify novel formulations for modeling the heat transfer and energy balance of snowpacks and glaciers that improve model robustness relative to the current generation of cryosphere hydrology models typically used in data-sparse mountain environments. I then demonstrate a method for understanding the impacts of projected future climate change on run-of-river hydropower resource potential, using Falls Creek in Oregon, USA as a test case. A core value of this work is producing models that can be straightforwardly applied to any region, thus decreasing the impacts of data disparities between regions on our ability to characterize climate change impacts on mountain regions. Title: Characterizing Linkages Between the Climate, Cryosphere, and Impacts on Run-of-River Hydropower in Data-Sparse Mountain Environments Author: Mosier, Thomas M. In many regions of the world, a significant portion of the surface water originates in mountain headwaters where the timing and magnitude of streamflow is largely dictated by the seasonal storage of precipitation as snowpack and long-term storage as glaciers. Accumulation, persistence, and melt of snow and ice are functions of the climate in which they exist and therefore respond to changes in that climate. One important use of water in many regions is for hydropower energy production. While reservoir-based hydropower infrastructure has some ability to absorb changes in timing of streamflow, run-of-river hydropower infrastructure does not. Thus, in assessing the economic feasibility of new or existing run-of-river infrastructure, it is important to account for potential impacts climate change may have over the lifetime of the project. Projecting impacts of climate change on surface water resources, and in particular on run-of-river hydropower resource potential, requires robustly characterizing the linkages between the climate, cryosphere, and streamflow. Two obstacles to increasing our understanding of mountain systems are the sparsity of observation data and complexity of weather patterns. The first part of my research addresses the issue of climate data availability in mountain regions through development of statistical models to characterize the high-spatial resolution distribution of historic and projected future precipitation and temperature. I demonstrate these climate products through projecting long-term changes in snowfall for the Alaska Range, Alps, Central Andes, and Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindu Kush ranges. I then present a framework for assessing conceptual cryosphere hydrology models and implement the framework for two long-term glacier study sites in Alaska, USA. Using this framework, I identify novel formulations for modeling the heat transfer and energy balance of snowpacks and glaciers that improve model robustness relative to the current generation of cryosphere hydrology models typically used in data-sparse mountain environments. I then demonstrate a method for understanding the impacts of projected future climate change on run-of-river hydropower resource potential, using Falls Creek in Oregon, USA as a test case. A core value of this work is producing models that can be straightforwardly applied to any region, thus decreasing the impacts of data disparities between regions on our ability to characterize climate change impacts on mountain regions. Close

• 4. [Article] Spatial and temporal effects of atmospheric deposition, climate, and land management on forest nutrient cycling and biodiversity

  Emissions largely associated with the combustion of fossil fuels and agriculture has caused elevated atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) throughout much of the developed world. Increased ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatial and temporal effects of atmospheric deposition, climate, and land management on forest nutrient cycling and biodiversity Author: McDonnell, Todd C. Emissions largely associated with the combustion of fossil fuels and agriculture has caused elevated atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) throughout much of the developed world. Increased atmospheric deposition of N and S can lead to soil and surface water acidification and affect forest soil nutrient supply. The critical load (CL) of atmospheric deposition is the level of deposition below which significant harm to ecosystems is not likely to occur. The critical load provides an understanding of the extent to which terrestrial and aquatic systems may be affected by air pollution at present or in the future. This research implements novel methods for generating CL estimates of N and S deposition and evaluates spatial and temporal trends in soil chemistry and plant biodiversity with respect to future climate and land management scenarios. Results are presented in the context of chemical thresholds known to be associated with adverse impacts to terrestrial and aquatic biota of the southern Appalachian Mountains and high elevation Colorado Rocky Mountains. Title: Spatial and temporal effects of atmospheric deposition, climate, and land management on forest nutrient cycling and biodiversity Author: McDonnell, Todd C. Emissions largely associated with the combustion of fossil fuels and agriculture has caused elevated atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) throughout much of the developed world. Increased atmospheric deposition of N and S can lead to soil and surface water acidification and affect forest soil nutrient supply. The critical load (CL) of atmospheric deposition is the level of deposition below which significant harm to ecosystems is not likely to occur. The critical load provides an understanding of the extent to which terrestrial and aquatic systems may be affected by air pollution at present or in the future. This research implements novel methods for generating CL estimates of N and S deposition and evaluates spatial and temporal trends in soil chemistry and plant biodiversity with respect to future climate and land management scenarios. Results are presented in the context of chemical thresholds known to be associated with adverse impacts to terrestrial and aquatic biota of the southern Appalachian Mountains and high elevation Colorado Rocky Mountains. Close

• 5. [Article] Variability in mesoscale circulation and its effects on zooplankton distribution in the Northern California Current

  In eastern boundary current upwelling ecosystems, mesoscale circulation features such as eddies and upwelling filaments play a prominent role in the transfer of water and the associated plankton from the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Variability in mesoscale circulation and its effects on zooplankton distribution in the Northern California Current Author: Keister, Julie Eileen In eastern boundary current upwelling ecosystems, mesoscale circulation features such as eddies and upwelling filaments play a prominent role in the transfer of water and the associated plankton from the productive nearshore to the oligotrophic deep sea. The relationship between mesoscale circulation, zooplankton distributions, and the across-shelf transport of coastal taxa and biomass in the California Current System was studied using data collected as part of the U.S. Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Northeast Pacific Program. Sea surface height from >13 years of satellite altimeter data was used to characterize the spatial and temporal variability in mesoscale circulation in the northern California Current (35°N-49°N) and explore mechanisms of variability. High spatial and temporal variation in mesoscale energy occurred. Energy was not strongly linked to upwelling winds, but did correspond to climate indices, indicating that basin-scale processes play a role in controlling the circulation. CTD casts, zooplankton net tows, and Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) velocities collected during a research cruise conducted in summer 2000 off Oregon and northern California were used to describe the effects of mesoscale circulation on distributions of zooplankton. During the cruise, a filament of the coastal upwelling jet extended seaward of Cape Blanco (42.8°N) resulting in the displacement of coastal zooplankton to >100 km off the continental shelf. Velocities and standing stocks of zooplankton were used to estimate seaward transport of 0.5 Sv in the upper 100 m of the filament, in which zooplankton biomass averaged ~20 mg carbon/m³. That offshore transport equated to >900 metric tons of carbon each day, and 4-5x10⁴ tons over the 6-8 week lifetime of the circulation feature. Although the flux represented a small portion (<2%) of the shelf zooplankton biomass, the transport resulted in an offshore "hot-spot" in which biomass was 3-4X higher than in the surrounding ocean. Distributions of early life history stages of euphausiids indicated that retention of coastal populations may be strongly affected by the offshore advection. Finally, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and sampling conducted during five summers were used to explore variability in the relationship between mesoscale circulation features and distributions of zooplankton. Circulation patterns differed among cruises and were reflected in zooplankton distributions. Circulation features resulted in the occurrence of cold surface water and coastal taxa offshore, but species abundances and presence/absence of taxa at specific locations were not predictable from satellite SSTs. These results are relevant to studies of ecosystem dynamics and the global carbon cycle because mesoscale circulation plays an important role in the seaward transport of carbon, retention and loss of taxa from the continental shelf, and creation of offshore structure which may be exploited by upper trophic level organisms. Title: Variability in mesoscale circulation and its effects on zooplankton distribution in the Northern California Current Author: Keister, Julie Eileen In eastern boundary current upwelling ecosystems, mesoscale circulation features such as eddies and upwelling filaments play a prominent role in the transfer of water and the associated plankton from the productive nearshore to the oligotrophic deep sea. The relationship between mesoscale circulation, zooplankton distributions, and the across-shelf transport of coastal taxa and biomass in the California Current System was studied using data collected as part of the U.S. Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Northeast Pacific Program. Sea surface height from >13 years of satellite altimeter data was used to characterize the spatial and temporal variability in mesoscale circulation in the northern California Current (35°N-49°N) and explore mechanisms of variability. High spatial and temporal variation in mesoscale energy occurred. Energy was not strongly linked to upwelling winds, but did correspond to climate indices, indicating that basin-scale processes play a role in controlling the circulation. CTD casts, zooplankton net tows, and Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) velocities collected during a research cruise conducted in summer 2000 off Oregon and northern California were used to describe the effects of mesoscale circulation on distributions of zooplankton. During the cruise, a filament of the coastal upwelling jet extended seaward of Cape Blanco (42.8°N) resulting in the displacement of coastal zooplankton to >100 km off the continental shelf. Velocities and standing stocks of zooplankton were used to estimate seaward transport of 0.5 Sv in the upper 100 m of the filament, in which zooplankton biomass averaged ~20 mg carbon/m³. That offshore transport equated to >900 metric tons of carbon each day, and 4-5x10⁴ tons over the 6-8 week lifetime of the circulation feature. Although the flux represented a small portion (<2%) of the shelf zooplankton biomass, the transport resulted in an offshore "hot-spot" in which biomass was 3-4X higher than in the surrounding ocean. Distributions of early life history stages of euphausiids indicated that retention of coastal populations may be strongly affected by the offshore advection. Finally, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and sampling conducted during five summers were used to explore variability in the relationship between mesoscale circulation features and distributions of zooplankton. Circulation patterns differed among cruises and were reflected in zooplankton distributions. Circulation features resulted in the occurrence of cold surface water and coastal taxa offshore, but species abundances and presence/absence of taxa at specific locations were not predictable from satellite SSTs. These results are relevant to studies of ecosystem dynamics and the global carbon cycle because mesoscale circulation plays an important role in the seaward transport of carbon, retention and loss of taxa from the continental shelf, and creation of offshore structure which may be exploited by upper trophic level organisms. Close

• 6. [Article] Satellite Monitoring of Earth’s Surface Temperature: Effects of Land Cover, Disturbance, and a Changing Climate

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Satellite Monitoring of Earth’s Surface Temperature: Effects of Land Cover, Disturbance, and a Changing Climate Author: Mildrexler, David J. Title: Satellite Monitoring of Earth’s Surface Temperature: Effects of Land Cover, Disturbance, and a Changing Climate Author: Mildrexler, David J. Close

• 7. [Article] Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes

  This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The published article can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/jo...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes Author: Freitas, Carla, Ciannelli, Lorenzo, Olsen, Esben Moland, Moland, Even, Knutsen, Halvor This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The published article can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%292045-7758 Title: Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes Author: Freitas, Carla, Ciannelli, Lorenzo, Olsen, Esben Moland, Moland, Even, Knutsen, Halvor This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The published article can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%292045-7758 Close

• 8. [Article] Perspectives on Climate Change, Mountain Hydrology, and Water Resources in the Oregon Cascades, USA

  This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the International Mountain Society (IMS) and can be found at: http://www.mrd-journal.org/default.asp.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Perspectives on Climate Change, Mountain Hydrology, and Water Resources in the Oregon Cascades, USA Author: Nolin, Anne W. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the International Mountain Society (IMS) and can be found at: http://www.mrd-journal.org/default.asp. Title: Perspectives on Climate Change, Mountain Hydrology, and Water Resources in the Oregon Cascades, USA Author: Nolin, Anne W. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the International Mountain Society (IMS) and can be found at: http://www.mrd-journal.org/default.asp. Close

• 9. [Article] Debris flows in glaciated catchments : a case study on Mount Rainier, Washington

  Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Debris flows in glaciated catchments : a case study on Mount Rainier, Washington Author: Legg, Nicholas T. Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This thesis contains two manuscripts that respectively investigate the (1) initiation processes of debris flows in these glaciated catchments, and (2) debris flow occurrence and its effect on valley bottoms over the last thousand years. In a 2006 storm, seven debris flows initiated from proglacial gullies of separate basins on the flanks of Mount Rainier. Gully heads at glacier termini and distributed collapse of gully walls imply that clear water was transformed to debris flow through progressive addition of sediment along gully lengths. In the first study, we analyze gully changes, reconstruct runoff conditions, and assess spatial distributions of debris flows to infer the processes and conditions necessary for debris flow initiation in glaciated catchments. Gully measurements suggest that sediment bulking requires steep gradients, abundant unstable material, and sufficient gully length. Reconstruction of runoff generated during the storm suggests that glaciers are important for generating the runoff necessary for debris flow initiation, particularly because infiltration capacities on glacial till covered surfaces well exceed measured rainfall rates. Runoff generation from glaciers and abundant loose debris at their termini explain why all debris flows in the storm initiated from proglacial areas. Proglacial areas that produced debris flows have steeper drainage networks with significantly higher elevations and lower drainage areas, suggesting that debris flows are associated with high elevation glaciers with relatively steep proglacial areas. This correlation reflects positive slope-elevation trends for the Mount Rainier volcano. An indirect effect of glacier change is thus the change in the distribution of ice-free slopes, which influence a basin’s debris flow potential. These findings have implications for projections of debris flow activity in basins experiencing glacier change. The second study uses a variety of dating techniques to reconstruct a chronology of debris flows in the Kautz Creek valley on the southwest flank of Mount Rainier (Washington). Dendrochronologic dating of growth disturbances combined with lichenometric techniques constrained five debris flow ages from 1712 to 1915 AD. We also estimated ages of three debris flows ranging in age from ca. 970 to 1661. Run-out distances served as a proxy for debris flow magnitude, and indicate that at least 11, 2, and 1 debris flow(s) have traveled at least 1, 3, and 5 km from the valley head, respectively since ca. 1650. Valley form reflects the frequency-magnitude relationship indicated by the chronology. In the upper, relatively steep valley, discrete debris flow snouts and secondary channels are abundant, suggesting a process of debris flow conveyance, channel plugging, and channel avulsion. The lower valley is characterized by relatively smooth surfaces, an absence of bouldery debris flow snouts, few secondary channels, and relatively old surface ages inferred from the presence of tephra layers. We infer that the lower valley is deposited on by relatively infrequent, large magnitude, low-yield strength debris flows like an event in 1947, which deposited wide, tabular lobes of debris outside of the main channel. Debris flows during the Little Ice Age (LIA) predominantly traveled no further than the upper valley. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the main Kautz Creek channel was filled during the LIA, enhancing debris flow deposition on the valley surface and perhaps reducing run-out lengths. Diminished areas and gradients in front of glaciers during the LIA also likely contributed to decreased run-out lengths. These findings suggest that changes in debris flow source and depositional zones resulting from temperature and glacier cycles influence the magnitude and run-out distances of debris flows, and the dynamics of deposition in valley bottoms. Title: Debris flows in glaciated catchments : a case study on Mount Rainier, Washington Author: Legg, Nicholas T. Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This thesis contains two manuscripts that respectively investigate the (1) initiation processes of debris flows in these glaciated catchments, and (2) debris flow occurrence and its effect on valley bottoms over the last thousand years. In a 2006 storm, seven debris flows initiated from proglacial gullies of separate basins on the flanks of Mount Rainier. Gully heads at glacier termini and distributed collapse of gully walls imply that clear water was transformed to debris flow through progressive addition of sediment along gully lengths. In the first study, we analyze gully changes, reconstruct runoff conditions, and assess spatial distributions of debris flows to infer the processes and conditions necessary for debris flow initiation in glaciated catchments. Gully measurements suggest that sediment bulking requires steep gradients, abundant unstable material, and sufficient gully length. Reconstruction of runoff generated during the storm suggests that glaciers are important for generating the runoff necessary for debris flow initiation, particularly because infiltration capacities on glacial till covered surfaces well exceed measured rainfall rates. Runoff generation from glaciers and abundant loose debris at their termini explain why all debris flows in the storm initiated from proglacial areas. Proglacial areas that produced debris flows have steeper drainage networks with significantly higher elevations and lower drainage areas, suggesting that debris flows are associated with high elevation glaciers with relatively steep proglacial areas. This correlation reflects positive slope-elevation trends for the Mount Rainier volcano. An indirect effect of glacier change is thus the change in the distribution of ice-free slopes, which influence a basin’s debris flow potential. These findings have implications for projections of debris flow activity in basins experiencing glacier change. The second study uses a variety of dating techniques to reconstruct a chronology of debris flows in the Kautz Creek valley on the southwest flank of Mount Rainier (Washington). Dendrochronologic dating of growth disturbances combined with lichenometric techniques constrained five debris flow ages from 1712 to 1915 AD. We also estimated ages of three debris flows ranging in age from ca. 970 to 1661. Run-out distances served as a proxy for debris flow magnitude, and indicate that at least 11, 2, and 1 debris flow(s) have traveled at least 1, 3, and 5 km from the valley head, respectively since ca. 1650. Valley form reflects the frequency-magnitude relationship indicated by the chronology. In the upper, relatively steep valley, discrete debris flow snouts and secondary channels are abundant, suggesting a process of debris flow conveyance, channel plugging, and channel avulsion. The lower valley is characterized by relatively smooth surfaces, an absence of bouldery debris flow snouts, few secondary channels, and relatively old surface ages inferred from the presence of tephra layers. We infer that the lower valley is deposited on by relatively infrequent, large magnitude, low-yield strength debris flows like an event in 1947, which deposited wide, tabular lobes of debris outside of the main channel. Debris flows during the Little Ice Age (LIA) predominantly traveled no further than the upper valley. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the main Kautz Creek channel was filled during the LIA, enhancing debris flow deposition on the valley surface and perhaps reducing run-out lengths. Diminished areas and gradients in front of glaciers during the LIA also likely contributed to decreased run-out lengths. These findings suggest that changes in debris flow source and depositional zones resulting from temperature and glacier cycles influence the magnitude and run-out distances of debris flows, and the dynamics of deposition in valley bottoms. Close

• 10. [Article] Regional Scale Modeling of Climate, Cryosphere, and Freshwater Discharge in Changing Coastal Mountain Environments

  The glaciated coastal mountain watersheds that drain into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) provide a model laboratory to explore the challenges of hydrological modeling and study the impact of climate and glacier ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Regional Scale Modeling of Climate, Cryosphere, and Freshwater Discharge in Changing Coastal Mountain Environments Author: Beamer, Jordan P. The glaciated coastal mountain watersheds that drain into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) provide a model laboratory to explore the challenges of hydrological modeling and study the impact of climate and glacier cover change on regional hydrology. The region is data-sparse and contains a complex assemblage of topography and land cover, including a system of mountain glaciers that are retreating at some of the highest rates on Earth. The high rates of runoff from precipitation and glacial melt delivered by coastal rivers influence ocean circulation patterns, rates of global sea level rise, and provide spawning habitat for the large salmon populations. Physically-based hydrological modeling of the major water budget components of the GOA, driven using historical reanalysis weather data and land cover, reveals that the modeled water budget components, particularly precipitation input, vary widely between commonly-used weather products. The majority of the large freshwater flux into the GOA is derived from distributed coastal streams rather than the large inland rivers. The modeled seasonal aggregated GOA hydrograph is dominated by the spring and early summer snowmelt, and supplemented by late summer glacial ice melt. Model results demonstrate good agreement with NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data in terms of annual amplitudes and long term losses (ice loss), and suggest that existing GRACE solutions, previously reported to represent glacier mass balance alone, are actually measuring the full water budget of land and ice surfaces. An ensemble of climate models and future emissions scenarios were paired with systematically altered land cover to test the sensitivity of the hydrologic system to changes in regional climate patterns and glacier coverage representative of late twenty first century conditions. Compared with the hindcast simulations, the model results forced with increased regional air temperatures and precipitation inputs and reduced glacier cover produce an increase in the annual GOA freshwater discharge volume. The seasonal GOA hydrograph is flattened due to increased winter runoff from more winter rainfall and less snow accumulation, and lower levels of snowmelt and glacier ice contribution. Large uncertainties exist in the direction of change in the glacier runoff component, primarily due to uncertainties that exist in predicting glacier response to climate change. Hydrological modeling with high resolution and inclusion of relevant physical processes can produce significantly improved products that are of high value to and in demand by numerous other scientific communities. However, the value and accuracy of the output from the hydrologic model is highly dependent on the weather forcing quality. Given the considerable importance of quality weather forcing for hydrologic modeling, it is imperative to assess the suitability of multiple products by evaluating local and regional performance and accounting for uncertainty. Additional efforts should be made to improve the spatial resolution of the reanalysis through downscaling and to strategically increase the number of weather stations at high elevations and incorporate that data into weather forcing datasets. Title: Regional Scale Modeling of Climate, Cryosphere, and Freshwater Discharge in Changing Coastal Mountain Environments Author: Beamer, Jordan P. The glaciated coastal mountain watersheds that drain into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) provide a model laboratory to explore the challenges of hydrological modeling and study the impact of climate and glacier cover change on regional hydrology. The region is data-sparse and contains a complex assemblage of topography and land cover, including a system of mountain glaciers that are retreating at some of the highest rates on Earth. The high rates of runoff from precipitation and glacial melt delivered by coastal rivers influence ocean circulation patterns, rates of global sea level rise, and provide spawning habitat for the large salmon populations. Physically-based hydrological modeling of the major water budget components of the GOA, driven using historical reanalysis weather data and land cover, reveals that the modeled water budget components, particularly precipitation input, vary widely between commonly-used weather products. The majority of the large freshwater flux into the GOA is derived from distributed coastal streams rather than the large inland rivers. The modeled seasonal aggregated GOA hydrograph is dominated by the spring and early summer snowmelt, and supplemented by late summer glacial ice melt. Model results demonstrate good agreement with NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data in terms of annual amplitudes and long term losses (ice loss), and suggest that existing GRACE solutions, previously reported to represent glacier mass balance alone, are actually measuring the full water budget of land and ice surfaces. An ensemble of climate models and future emissions scenarios were paired with systematically altered land cover to test the sensitivity of the hydrologic system to changes in regional climate patterns and glacier coverage representative of late twenty first century conditions. Compared with the hindcast simulations, the model results forced with increased regional air temperatures and precipitation inputs and reduced glacier cover produce an increase in the annual GOA freshwater discharge volume. The seasonal GOA hydrograph is flattened due to increased winter runoff from more winter rainfall and less snow accumulation, and lower levels of snowmelt and glacier ice contribution. Large uncertainties exist in the direction of change in the glacier runoff component, primarily due to uncertainties that exist in predicting glacier response to climate change. Hydrological modeling with high resolution and inclusion of relevant physical processes can produce significantly improved products that are of high value to and in demand by numerous other scientific communities. However, the value and accuracy of the output from the hydrologic model is highly dependent on the weather forcing quality. Given the considerable importance of quality weather forcing for hydrologic modeling, it is imperative to assess the suitability of multiple products by evaluating local and regional performance and accounting for uncertainty. Additional efforts should be made to improve the spatial resolution of the reanalysis through downscaling and to strategically increase the number of weather stations at high elevations and incorporate that data into weather forcing datasets. Close