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• 51. [Article] Climate Change Impact on Drought Risk and Uncertainty in the Willamette River Basin

  Presented at The Oregon Water Conference, May 24-25, 2011, Corvallis, OR.

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate Change Impact on Drought Risk and Uncertainty in the Willamette River Basin Author: Chang, Heejun, Jung, Il-Won Year: 2011 Presented at The Oregon Water Conference, May 24-25, 2011, Corvallis, OR. Title: Climate Change Impact on Drought Risk and Uncertainty in the Willamette River Basin Author: Chang, Heejun, Jung, Il-Won Year: 2011 Presented at The Oregon Water Conference, May 24-25, 2011, Corvallis, OR. Close

• 52. [Article] Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

  The Appendix is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality Author: Bruggeman, Jason E., Nigro, Debora, Swem, Ted, Kennedy, Patricia L., Andersen, David E. The Appendix is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm Title: Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality Author: Bruggeman, Jason E., Nigro, Debora, Swem, Ted, Kennedy, Patricia L., Andersen, David E. The Appendix is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm Close

• 53. [Article] Variability in mesoscale circulation and its effects on zooplankton distribution in the Northern California Current

  In eastern boundary current upwelling ecosystems, mesoscale circulation features such as eddies and upwelling filaments play a prominent role in the transfer of water and the associated plankton from the ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Variability in mesoscale circulation and its effects on zooplankton distribution in the Northern California Current Author: Keister, Julie Eileen In eastern boundary current upwelling ecosystems, mesoscale circulation features such as eddies and upwelling filaments play a prominent role in the transfer of water and the associated plankton from the productive nearshore to the oligotrophic deep sea. The relationship between mesoscale circulation, zooplankton distributions, and the across-shelf transport of coastal taxa and biomass in the California Current System was studied using data collected as part of the U.S. Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Northeast Pacific Program. Sea surface height from >13 years of satellite altimeter data was used to characterize the spatial and temporal variability in mesoscale circulation in the northern California Current (35°N-49°N) and explore mechanisms of variability. High spatial and temporal variation in mesoscale energy occurred. Energy was not strongly linked to upwelling winds, but did correspond to climate indices, indicating that basin-scale processes play a role in controlling the circulation. CTD casts, zooplankton net tows, and Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) velocities collected during a research cruise conducted in summer 2000 off Oregon and northern California were used to describe the effects of mesoscale circulation on distributions of zooplankton. During the cruise, a filament of the coastal upwelling jet extended seaward of Cape Blanco (42.8°N) resulting in the displacement of coastal zooplankton to >100 km off the continental shelf. Velocities and standing stocks of zooplankton were used to estimate seaward transport of 0.5 Sv in the upper 100 m of the filament, in which zooplankton biomass averaged ~20 mg carbon/m³. That offshore transport equated to >900 metric tons of carbon each day, and 4-5x10⁴ tons over the 6-8 week lifetime of the circulation feature. Although the flux represented a small portion (<2%) of the shelf zooplankton biomass, the transport resulted in an offshore "hot-spot" in which biomass was 3-4X higher than in the surrounding ocean. Distributions of early life history stages of euphausiids indicated that retention of coastal populations may be strongly affected by the offshore advection. Finally, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and sampling conducted during five summers were used to explore variability in the relationship between mesoscale circulation features and distributions of zooplankton. Circulation patterns differed among cruises and were reflected in zooplankton distributions. Circulation features resulted in the occurrence of cold surface water and coastal taxa offshore, but species abundances and presence/absence of taxa at specific locations were not predictable from satellite SSTs. These results are relevant to studies of ecosystem dynamics and the global carbon cycle because mesoscale circulation plays an important role in the seaward transport of carbon, retention and loss of taxa from the continental shelf, and creation of offshore structure which may be exploited by upper trophic level organisms. Title: Variability in mesoscale circulation and its effects on zooplankton distribution in the Northern California Current Author: Keister, Julie Eileen In eastern boundary current upwelling ecosystems, mesoscale circulation features such as eddies and upwelling filaments play a prominent role in the transfer of water and the associated plankton from the productive nearshore to the oligotrophic deep sea. The relationship between mesoscale circulation, zooplankton distributions, and the across-shelf transport of coastal taxa and biomass in the California Current System was studied using data collected as part of the U.S. Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Northeast Pacific Program. Sea surface height from >13 years of satellite altimeter data was used to characterize the spatial and temporal variability in mesoscale circulation in the northern California Current (35°N-49°N) and explore mechanisms of variability. High spatial and temporal variation in mesoscale energy occurred. Energy was not strongly linked to upwelling winds, but did correspond to climate indices, indicating that basin-scale processes play a role in controlling the circulation. CTD casts, zooplankton net tows, and Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) velocities collected during a research cruise conducted in summer 2000 off Oregon and northern California were used to describe the effects of mesoscale circulation on distributions of zooplankton. During the cruise, a filament of the coastal upwelling jet extended seaward of Cape Blanco (42.8°N) resulting in the displacement of coastal zooplankton to >100 km off the continental shelf. Velocities and standing stocks of zooplankton were used to estimate seaward transport of 0.5 Sv in the upper 100 m of the filament, in which zooplankton biomass averaged ~20 mg carbon/m³. That offshore transport equated to >900 metric tons of carbon each day, and 4-5x10⁴ tons over the 6-8 week lifetime of the circulation feature. Although the flux represented a small portion (<2%) of the shelf zooplankton biomass, the transport resulted in an offshore "hot-spot" in which biomass was 3-4X higher than in the surrounding ocean. Distributions of early life history stages of euphausiids indicated that retention of coastal populations may be strongly affected by the offshore advection. Finally, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and sampling conducted during five summers were used to explore variability in the relationship between mesoscale circulation features and distributions of zooplankton. Circulation patterns differed among cruises and were reflected in zooplankton distributions. Circulation features resulted in the occurrence of cold surface water and coastal taxa offshore, but species abundances and presence/absence of taxa at specific locations were not predictable from satellite SSTs. These results are relevant to studies of ecosystem dynamics and the global carbon cycle because mesoscale circulation plays an important role in the seaward transport of carbon, retention and loss of taxa from the continental shelf, and creation of offshore structure which may be exploited by upper trophic level organisms. Close

• 54. [Article] Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

  Appendix A is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality Author: Bruggeman, Jason E., Nigro, Debora, Andersen, David E., Kennedy, Patricia L., Swem, Ted Appendix A is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm Title: Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality Author: Bruggeman, Jason E., Nigro, Debora, Andersen, David E., Kennedy, Patricia L., Swem, Ted Appendix A is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1591.1.sm Close

• 55. [Article] Examining ectomycorrhizal communities of ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine in the south-central Oregon pumice zone

  Background information is presented that provides historical perspectives on the field of mycology in the Pacific Northwest and its role in forest management. The series of events and decisions that have ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Examining ectomycorrhizal communities of ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine in the south-central Oregon pumice zone Author: Garcia, Maria Osuna Background information is presented that provides historical perspectives on the field of mycology in the Pacific Northwest and its role in forest management. The series of events and decisions that have led to previous studies (or lack of studies) in the field also dictate the directions of current research. Culture, philosophy, and history all play a role in the questions that may be asked today. Examining the past gives light to the questions that are asked in the present and future. Forest ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest are changing as a result of climate change. Rise of global temperatures, decline of winter precipitation, earlier loss of snowpack, and increased summer drought are altering the range of Pinus contorta. As environmental conditions change, Pinus ponderosa may establish within the historic Pinus contorta range. Successful pine species migration will be constrained by the distribution or co-migration of ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF). Knowledge of the linkages among soil fungal diversity, community structure, and environmental factors is critical to understanding the organization and stability of pine ecosystems. The objectives of this study are to establish an informational foundation of the EMF communities of P. ponderosa and P. contorta in the Deschutes National Forest and to examine soil characteristics associated with community composition. We examined EMF root tips of P. ponderosa and P. contorta in soil cores and conducted soil chemistry analysis for P. ponderosa. Results indicate that Cenococcum geophilum, Rhizopogon salebrosus, and Inocybe flocculosa are dominant in both P. contorta and P. ponderosa soil cores. Rhizopogon spp. were ubiquitous in P. ponderosa. There was no significant difference between EMF communities of P. ponderosa and P. contorta at the species level. Ordination analysis suggests that pH, Bray-phosphorus, total phosphorus (P), carbon (C), mineralizable nitrogen (N), ammonium (NH₄) and nitrate (NO₃) are driving EMF community composition in P. ponderosa. We found a significant linear relationship between EMF species richness and mineralizable N. Title: Examining ectomycorrhizal communities of ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine in the south-central Oregon pumice zone Author: Garcia, Maria Osuna Background information is presented that provides historical perspectives on the field of mycology in the Pacific Northwest and its role in forest management. The series of events and decisions that have led to previous studies (or lack of studies) in the field also dictate the directions of current research. Culture, philosophy, and history all play a role in the questions that may be asked today. Examining the past gives light to the questions that are asked in the present and future. Forest ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest are changing as a result of climate change. Rise of global temperatures, decline of winter precipitation, earlier loss of snowpack, and increased summer drought are altering the range of Pinus contorta. As environmental conditions change, Pinus ponderosa may establish within the historic Pinus contorta range. Successful pine species migration will be constrained by the distribution or co-migration of ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF). Knowledge of the linkages among soil fungal diversity, community structure, and environmental factors is critical to understanding the organization and stability of pine ecosystems. The objectives of this study are to establish an informational foundation of the EMF communities of P. ponderosa and P. contorta in the Deschutes National Forest and to examine soil characteristics associated with community composition. We examined EMF root tips of P. ponderosa and P. contorta in soil cores and conducted soil chemistry analysis for P. ponderosa. Results indicate that Cenococcum geophilum, Rhizopogon salebrosus, and Inocybe flocculosa are dominant in both P. contorta and P. ponderosa soil cores. Rhizopogon spp. were ubiquitous in P. ponderosa. There was no significant difference between EMF communities of P. ponderosa and P. contorta at the species level. Ordination analysis suggests that pH, Bray-phosphorus, total phosphorus (P), carbon (C), mineralizable nitrogen (N), ammonium (NH₄) and nitrate (NO₃) are driving EMF community composition in P. ponderosa. We found a significant linear relationship between EMF species richness and mineralizable N. Close

• 56. [Article] Using soil data to enhance modeling of forest responses to climate change

  The over-arching theme of this work is that soil data affect the performance and realism of vegetation models with particular focus on their ability to predict or explain disturbances such as fire or disease. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Using soil data to enhance modeling of forest responses to climate change Author: Peterman, Wendy L. The over-arching theme of this work is that soil data affect the performance and realism of vegetation models with particular focus on their ability to predict or explain disturbances such as fire or disease. We tested the sensitivity of the Excel version of the 3-PG model to soil properties and applied this information to understanding bark beetle attacks in drought-stressed forests. We tested the sensitivity of the MC2 model to soil depth with a particular focus on how soils affect the biogeochemistry and fire modules of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM). We found in these sensitivity analyses, soil depth, soil water storage capacity (ASW) and soil texture are among the most important soil factors to map and include in models of forest productivity. Chapter 2 shows how soil available water storage capacity has an effect on where pinyon pines are most likely to be stressed during a drought that lasts longer than one year. Chapter 3 shows how ponderosa pines in western Montana are more vulnerable to disturbance on fine-textured soils during years when precipitation is significantly less than in previous years. Finally, Chapter 4 shows that changes in soil depth affect model simulations of productivity and hydrology across the landscape, but fire simulations are only affected in areas with lower precipitation. The value of this research is the knowledge that soil characteristics such as depth, ASW, soil fertility and soil texture can be used in hindcasts of forest disturbances to determine thresholds where forests may become more vulnerable to disturbance in response to rising temperatures or changes in precipitation. Title: Using soil data to enhance modeling of forest responses to climate change Author: Peterman, Wendy L. The over-arching theme of this work is that soil data affect the performance and realism of vegetation models with particular focus on their ability to predict or explain disturbances such as fire or disease. We tested the sensitivity of the Excel version of the 3-PG model to soil properties and applied this information to understanding bark beetle attacks in drought-stressed forests. We tested the sensitivity of the MC2 model to soil depth with a particular focus on how soils affect the biogeochemistry and fire modules of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM). We found in these sensitivity analyses, soil depth, soil water storage capacity (ASW) and soil texture are among the most important soil factors to map and include in models of forest productivity. Chapter 2 shows how soil available water storage capacity has an effect on where pinyon pines are most likely to be stressed during a drought that lasts longer than one year. Chapter 3 shows how ponderosa pines in western Montana are more vulnerable to disturbance on fine-textured soils during years when precipitation is significantly less than in previous years. Finally, Chapter 4 shows that changes in soil depth affect model simulations of productivity and hydrology across the landscape, but fire simulations are only affected in areas with lower precipitation. The value of this research is the knowledge that soil characteristics such as depth, ASW, soil fertility and soil texture can be used in hindcasts of forest disturbances to determine thresholds where forests may become more vulnerable to disturbance in response to rising temperatures or changes in precipitation. Close

• 57. [Article] Development of a hydrologic model to explore impacts of climate change on water resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho

  In the Western United States where 50-70% of annual precipitation comes in the form of winter snowfall, water supplies may be particularly sensitive to a warming climate. We worked with a network of stakeholders ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Development of a hydrologic model to explore impacts of climate change on water resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho Author: Inouye, Allison Marshall In the Western United States where 50-70% of annual precipitation comes in the form of winter snowfall, water supplies may be particularly sensitive to a warming climate. We worked with a network of stakeholders in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho, to explore how climate change may affect water resources and identify strategies that may help mitigate the impacts. The 8,300 square kilometer region in central Idaho contains a mixture of public and private land ownership, a diversity of landcover ranging from steep forested headwaters to expansive desert shrublands to a concentrated area of urban development that has experienced a quadrupling of population since the 1970s. With nearly 60% of precipitation falling as winter snow, stakeholders expressed concern regarding the vulnerability of the quantity and timing of seasonal snowpack as well as surface water supplies used primarily for agricultural irrigation under projected climate change. Here, we achieve two objectives. The first is the development of a hydrologic model to represent the dynamics of the surface water system in the Big Wood Basin. We use the semi-distributed model Envision-Flow to represent surface water hydrology, reservoir operations, and agricultural irrigation. We calibrated the model using a multi-criteria objective function that considered three metrics related to streamflow and one metric related to snow water equivalent. The model achieved higher an efficiency of 0.74 for the main stem of the Big Wood River and 0.50 for the Camas Creek tributary during the validation period. The second objective is an analysis of the Big Wood Basin hydrology under alternative future climate scenarios. We forced the calibrated model with three downscaled CMIP5 climate model inputs representing a range of possible future conditions over the period 2010-2070. The climate models simulate an increase in basin average annual air temperature ranging from 1.6-5.7oC in the 2060s compared to the 1980-2009 average. The climate models show less of a clear trend regarding precipitation but in general, one model simulates precipitation patterns similar to historic, one is slightly wetter than historic, and one is slightly drier than historic by the mid-21st century. Under these future climate scenarios, the depth of April 1 SWE may decline by as much as 92% in the 2060s compared to the historic average. Mid to high elevations exhibit the largest reductions in SWE. Simulated streamflows show a shift in timing, with peak flows occurring up to three weeks earlier and center of timing from two to seven weeks earlier in the 2050-2069 period compared to the historic period. Reduced peak flows of 14-70% were simulated by mid-century. The simulated total annual streamflow, though, fell within the historic interquartile range for most years in the future period. These and other metrics considered suggest that the surface water hydrology of the Big Wood Basin is likely to be impacted by climate change. If the natural water storage provided by the annual snowpack is reduced and timing of streamflows shifts, water resource use and management may need to change in the future. This work provides a foundation from which to explore alternative management scenarios. The approach used here can be transferred to other watersheds to further assess how water resources may be affected by climate change. Title: Development of a hydrologic model to explore impacts of climate change on water resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho Author: Inouye, Allison Marshall In the Western United States where 50-70% of annual precipitation comes in the form of winter snowfall, water supplies may be particularly sensitive to a warming climate. We worked with a network of stakeholders in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho, to explore how climate change may affect water resources and identify strategies that may help mitigate the impacts. The 8,300 square kilometer region in central Idaho contains a mixture of public and private land ownership, a diversity of landcover ranging from steep forested headwaters to expansive desert shrublands to a concentrated area of urban development that has experienced a quadrupling of population since the 1970s. With nearly 60% of precipitation falling as winter snow, stakeholders expressed concern regarding the vulnerability of the quantity and timing of seasonal snowpack as well as surface water supplies used primarily for agricultural irrigation under projected climate change. Here, we achieve two objectives. The first is the development of a hydrologic model to represent the dynamics of the surface water system in the Big Wood Basin. We use the semi-distributed model Envision-Flow to represent surface water hydrology, reservoir operations, and agricultural irrigation. We calibrated the model using a multi-criteria objective function that considered three metrics related to streamflow and one metric related to snow water equivalent. The model achieved higher an efficiency of 0.74 for the main stem of the Big Wood River and 0.50 for the Camas Creek tributary during the validation period. The second objective is an analysis of the Big Wood Basin hydrology under alternative future climate scenarios. We forced the calibrated model with three downscaled CMIP5 climate model inputs representing a range of possible future conditions over the period 2010-2070. The climate models simulate an increase in basin average annual air temperature ranging from 1.6-5.7oC in the 2060s compared to the 1980-2009 average. The climate models show less of a clear trend regarding precipitation but in general, one model simulates precipitation patterns similar to historic, one is slightly wetter than historic, and one is slightly drier than historic by the mid-21st century. Under these future climate scenarios, the depth of April 1 SWE may decline by as much as 92% in the 2060s compared to the historic average. Mid to high elevations exhibit the largest reductions in SWE. Simulated streamflows show a shift in timing, with peak flows occurring up to three weeks earlier and center of timing from two to seven weeks earlier in the 2050-2069 period compared to the historic period. Reduced peak flows of 14-70% were simulated by mid-century. The simulated total annual streamflow, though, fell within the historic interquartile range for most years in the future period. These and other metrics considered suggest that the surface water hydrology of the Big Wood Basin is likely to be impacted by climate change. If the natural water storage provided by the annual snowpack is reduced and timing of streamflows shifts, water resource use and management may need to change in the future. This work provides a foundation from which to explore alternative management scenarios. The approach used here can be transferred to other watersheds to further assess how water resources may be affected by climate change. Close

• 58. [Article] Local perceptions of climate change, coping and adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in the Lake Basin Region of Kenya

  Smallholder farmers in Africa, who have long relied on rain-fed agriculture, are currently experiencing adverse impacts of climate change which is posing serious challenges to their ability to sustain ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Local perceptions of climate change, coping and adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in the Lake Basin Region of Kenya Author: Asinjo, Robert Smallholder farmers in Africa, who have long relied on rain-fed agriculture, are currently experiencing adverse impacts of climate change which is posing serious challenges to their ability to sustain their livelihoods (Morton 2007). This is the case for many other areas around the world, especially among indigenousor ruralcommunities who rely directly on natural resources. Little is understood about the day-to-day impacts felt in many of these communities, impacts that vary considerably, based on location. Little still, is understood about the strategies that individuals or communities are adopting in order to cope and adapt, strategies that can be expected to vary based on the social and cultural context of specific communities (Crate & Nuttall 2009). Discourses around climate change have been dominated mainly by scientists and policy makers who, in their considerations, pay more attention tothe biophysical aspects of climate variability. Consequently, strategies to address climate change are centered on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, a major concern in the industrialized world (Orlove et al. 2010, Berkes 2007). However it is projected that greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere, will result in increasing climate variability and extreme events such as droughts and rising temperatures among others. Communities in the non-industrialized world have contributed the least to greenhouse gases, yet they are disproportionately vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change (Kangalawe 2011). Given the broad scale of climate change, the resulting impacts affect many aspects of peoples' livelihoods. Hence there is a need for moreplace-based studies that highlight the human dimensions of climate change. Considering human dimensions provides to a better understanding of the links between perceptions of climate change, local knowledge and responses to climate change. This approach is adopted in this research study, which focuses on smallholder farmers in Rusinga Island located in Kenya's Lake Victoria basin. The main aim is to understand how they perceive climate change and in turn the strategies they are employing as they confront uncertain climatic conditions. The study is centered on the individual practices of local farmers as well as communal action aimed at enhancing their resilience to climate change. The approach is integrative seeking to understand the coping and adaptation strategies favored by farmers within the specific sociocultural context in Rusinga Island. Title: Local perceptions of climate change, coping and adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in the Lake Basin Region of Kenya Author: Asinjo, Robert Smallholder farmers in Africa, who have long relied on rain-fed agriculture, are currently experiencing adverse impacts of climate change which is posing serious challenges to their ability to sustain their livelihoods (Morton 2007). This is the case for many other areas around the world, especially among indigenousor ruralcommunities who rely directly on natural resources. Little is understood about the day-to-day impacts felt in many of these communities, impacts that vary considerably, based on location. Little still, is understood about the strategies that individuals or communities are adopting in order to cope and adapt, strategies that can be expected to vary based on the social and cultural context of specific communities (Crate & Nuttall 2009). Discourses around climate change have been dominated mainly by scientists and policy makers who, in their considerations, pay more attention tothe biophysical aspects of climate variability. Consequently, strategies to address climate change are centered on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, a major concern in the industrialized world (Orlove et al. 2010, Berkes 2007). However it is projected that greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere, will result in increasing climate variability and extreme events such as droughts and rising temperatures among others. Communities in the non-industrialized world have contributed the least to greenhouse gases, yet they are disproportionately vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change (Kangalawe 2011). Given the broad scale of climate change, the resulting impacts affect many aspects of peoples' livelihoods. Hence there is a need for moreplace-based studies that highlight the human dimensions of climate change. Considering human dimensions provides to a better understanding of the links between perceptions of climate change, local knowledge and responses to climate change. This approach is adopted in this research study, which focuses on smallholder farmers in Rusinga Island located in Kenya's Lake Victoria basin. The main aim is to understand how they perceive climate change and in turn the strategies they are employing as they confront uncertain climatic conditions. The study is centered on the individual practices of local farmers as well as communal action aimed at enhancing their resilience to climate change. The approach is integrative seeking to understand the coping and adaptation strategies favored by farmers within the specific sociocultural context in Rusinga Island. Close

• 59. [Article] Improving Projections of Tidal Marsh Persistence under Climate Change with Remote Sensing and Site-Specific Data

  Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that are threatened by climate change and sea-level rise. To characterize baseline condition and historic climate sensitivities, and improve projections into the future, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Improving Projections of Tidal Marsh Persistence under Climate Change with Remote Sensing and Site-Specific Data Author: Buffington, Kevin John Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that are threatened by climate change and sea-level rise. To characterize baseline condition and historic climate sensitivities, and improve projections into the future, new methods are required that integrate data from the field and remote sensing platforms. Marsh elevation response models can be calibrated with site-specific data to determine the vulnerability of a marsh to sea-level rise and help guide management decisions. Elevation models are sensitive to initial elevation, the rate of accretion, and aboveground biomass. The overarching goal of this dissertation was to develop techniques to improve these important model inputs and evaluate the range of spatial and temporal variation. Light detection and ranging (lidar) is an invaluable tool for collecting elevation data, however dense vegetation prevents the accurate measurement of the tidal marsh surface. In Chapter 2, I describe the development of a technique to calibrate lidar digital elevation models with survey elevation data using readily available multispectral aerial imagery from the National Agricultural Inventory Program (NAIP). Using survey elevation data across 17 Pacific Coast tidal marshes, I demonstrated the utility of the Lidar Elevation Adjustment with NDVI (LEAN) technique to account for the positive bias in lidar due to vegetation. LEAN reduced error from an average of 23.1 cm to 7.2 cm root mean squared error and removed the positive bias caused by vegetation. This increase in accuracy will facilitate more accurate assessments of current and future vulnerability to sea-level rise. The phenology of aboveground biomass in tidal marsh plants in relation to climate variation has not been explored in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). In Chapter 3 I explain how I leveraged the Landsat archive and cloud computing capabilities to assess how Tasseled Cap Greenness (TCG, a proxy for aboveground biomass) in three PNW tidal marshes has responded to recent variation in climate to characterize sensitivity to climate change. Through analysis of over 3700 Landsat images obtained from 1984-2015, I found increased annual precipitation resulted in a higher peak TCG, while warmer May temperatures resulted in an earlier day of peak TCG. These results also demonstrate how time-series analysis of remote sensing data can be used to examine the sensitivity of tidal marsh plants to climate variability and directional change. The range of variation in tidal marsh accretion rates has not been characterized across the PNW. For Chapter 4, I collected and analyzed twenty-two soil cores from eight estuaries to estimate historic accretion rates with radioisotope dating techniques and evaluated the amount and source of variation across estuaries. I found that tidal marshes across the PNW had accretion rates greater than the current rate of sea-level rise, ranging from 2.3 – 7.3 mm yr⁻¹. Using a watershed-scale analysis, I found that long-term average annual fluvial discharge was the top predictor of tidal marsh accretion rates. Additionally, I found that calibrating the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) with accretion rate data from nearby estuaries can result in uncertainties of up to 41% (50 cm) after 100 years. Finally, in Chapter 5, I demonstrate that a range of 62 cm of error is possible in WARMER models after a 100 year simulation when both uncorrected lidar and non-local accretion rates are used, fundamentally changing the interpretation of the results. Altogether, this dissertation illustrates the importance of collecting site-specific wetland vegetation and elevation data and demonstrates how lidar and multispectral remote sensing data can be leveraged to improve our understanding of how climate variability and change impacts coastal ecosystems. Title: Improving Projections of Tidal Marsh Persistence under Climate Change with Remote Sensing and Site-Specific Data Author: Buffington, Kevin John Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that are threatened by climate change and sea-level rise. To characterize baseline condition and historic climate sensitivities, and improve projections into the future, new methods are required that integrate data from the field and remote sensing platforms. Marsh elevation response models can be calibrated with site-specific data to determine the vulnerability of a marsh to sea-level rise and help guide management decisions. Elevation models are sensitive to initial elevation, the rate of accretion, and aboveground biomass. The overarching goal of this dissertation was to develop techniques to improve these important model inputs and evaluate the range of spatial and temporal variation. Light detection and ranging (lidar) is an invaluable tool for collecting elevation data, however dense vegetation prevents the accurate measurement of the tidal marsh surface. In Chapter 2, I describe the development of a technique to calibrate lidar digital elevation models with survey elevation data using readily available multispectral aerial imagery from the National Agricultural Inventory Program (NAIP). Using survey elevation data across 17 Pacific Coast tidal marshes, I demonstrated the utility of the Lidar Elevation Adjustment with NDVI (LEAN) technique to account for the positive bias in lidar due to vegetation. LEAN reduced error from an average of 23.1 cm to 7.2 cm root mean squared error and removed the positive bias caused by vegetation. This increase in accuracy will facilitate more accurate assessments of current and future vulnerability to sea-level rise. The phenology of aboveground biomass in tidal marsh plants in relation to climate variation has not been explored in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). In Chapter 3 I explain how I leveraged the Landsat archive and cloud computing capabilities to assess how Tasseled Cap Greenness (TCG, a proxy for aboveground biomass) in three PNW tidal marshes has responded to recent variation in climate to characterize sensitivity to climate change. Through analysis of over 3700 Landsat images obtained from 1984-2015, I found increased annual precipitation resulted in a higher peak TCG, while warmer May temperatures resulted in an earlier day of peak TCG. These results also demonstrate how time-series analysis of remote sensing data can be used to examine the sensitivity of tidal marsh plants to climate variability and directional change. The range of variation in tidal marsh accretion rates has not been characterized across the PNW. For Chapter 4, I collected and analyzed twenty-two soil cores from eight estuaries to estimate historic accretion rates with radioisotope dating techniques and evaluated the amount and source of variation across estuaries. I found that tidal marshes across the PNW had accretion rates greater than the current rate of sea-level rise, ranging from 2.3 – 7.3 mm yr⁻¹. Using a watershed-scale analysis, I found that long-term average annual fluvial discharge was the top predictor of tidal marsh accretion rates. Additionally, I found that calibrating the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) with accretion rate data from nearby estuaries can result in uncertainties of up to 41% (50 cm) after 100 years. Finally, in Chapter 5, I demonstrate that a range of 62 cm of error is possible in WARMER models after a 100 year simulation when both uncorrected lidar and non-local accretion rates are used, fundamentally changing the interpretation of the results. Altogether, this dissertation illustrates the importance of collecting site-specific wetland vegetation and elevation data and demonstrates how lidar and multispectral remote sensing data can be leveraged to improve our understanding of how climate variability and change impacts coastal ecosystems. Close

• 60. [Article] Debris flows in glaciated catchments : a case study on Mount Rainier, Washington

  Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Debris flows in glaciated catchments : a case study on Mount Rainier, Washington Author: Legg, Nicholas T. Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This thesis contains two manuscripts that respectively investigate the (1) initiation processes of debris flows in these glaciated catchments, and (2) debris flow occurrence and its effect on valley bottoms over the last thousand years. In a 2006 storm, seven debris flows initiated from proglacial gullies of separate basins on the flanks of Mount Rainier. Gully heads at glacier termini and distributed collapse of gully walls imply that clear water was transformed to debris flow through progressive addition of sediment along gully lengths. In the first study, we analyze gully changes, reconstruct runoff conditions, and assess spatial distributions of debris flows to infer the processes and conditions necessary for debris flow initiation in glaciated catchments. Gully measurements suggest that sediment bulking requires steep gradients, abundant unstable material, and sufficient gully length. Reconstruction of runoff generated during the storm suggests that glaciers are important for generating the runoff necessary for debris flow initiation, particularly because infiltration capacities on glacial till covered surfaces well exceed measured rainfall rates. Runoff generation from glaciers and abundant loose debris at their termini explain why all debris flows in the storm initiated from proglacial areas. Proglacial areas that produced debris flows have steeper drainage networks with significantly higher elevations and lower drainage areas, suggesting that debris flows are associated with high elevation glaciers with relatively steep proglacial areas. This correlation reflects positive slope-elevation trends for the Mount Rainier volcano. An indirect effect of glacier change is thus the change in the distribution of ice-free slopes, which influence a basin’s debris flow potential. These findings have implications for projections of debris flow activity in basins experiencing glacier change. The second study uses a variety of dating techniques to reconstruct a chronology of debris flows in the Kautz Creek valley on the southwest flank of Mount Rainier (Washington). Dendrochronologic dating of growth disturbances combined with lichenometric techniques constrained five debris flow ages from 1712 to 1915 AD. We also estimated ages of three debris flows ranging in age from ca. 970 to 1661. Run-out distances served as a proxy for debris flow magnitude, and indicate that at least 11, 2, and 1 debris flow(s) have traveled at least 1, 3, and 5 km from the valley head, respectively since ca. 1650. Valley form reflects the frequency-magnitude relationship indicated by the chronology. In the upper, relatively steep valley, discrete debris flow snouts and secondary channels are abundant, suggesting a process of debris flow conveyance, channel plugging, and channel avulsion. The lower valley is characterized by relatively smooth surfaces, an absence of bouldery debris flow snouts, few secondary channels, and relatively old surface ages inferred from the presence of tephra layers. We infer that the lower valley is deposited on by relatively infrequent, large magnitude, low-yield strength debris flows like an event in 1947, which deposited wide, tabular lobes of debris outside of the main channel. Debris flows during the Little Ice Age (LIA) predominantly traveled no further than the upper valley. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the main Kautz Creek channel was filled during the LIA, enhancing debris flow deposition on the valley surface and perhaps reducing run-out lengths. Diminished areas and gradients in front of glaciers during the LIA also likely contributed to decreased run-out lengths. These findings suggest that changes in debris flow source and depositional zones resulting from temperature and glacier cycles influence the magnitude and run-out distances of debris flows, and the dynamics of deposition in valley bottoms. Title: Debris flows in glaciated catchments : a case study on Mount Rainier, Washington Author: Legg, Nicholas T. Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This thesis contains two manuscripts that respectively investigate the (1) initiation processes of debris flows in these glaciated catchments, and (2) debris flow occurrence and its effect on valley bottoms over the last thousand years. In a 2006 storm, seven debris flows initiated from proglacial gullies of separate basins on the flanks of Mount Rainier. Gully heads at glacier termini and distributed collapse of gully walls imply that clear water was transformed to debris flow through progressive addition of sediment along gully lengths. In the first study, we analyze gully changes, reconstruct runoff conditions, and assess spatial distributions of debris flows to infer the processes and conditions necessary for debris flow initiation in glaciated catchments. Gully measurements suggest that sediment bulking requires steep gradients, abundant unstable material, and sufficient gully length. Reconstruction of runoff generated during the storm suggests that glaciers are important for generating the runoff necessary for debris flow initiation, particularly because infiltration capacities on glacial till covered surfaces well exceed measured rainfall rates. Runoff generation from glaciers and abundant loose debris at their termini explain why all debris flows in the storm initiated from proglacial areas. Proglacial areas that produced debris flows have steeper drainage networks with significantly higher elevations and lower drainage areas, suggesting that debris flows are associated with high elevation glaciers with relatively steep proglacial areas. This correlation reflects positive slope-elevation trends for the Mount Rainier volcano. An indirect effect of glacier change is thus the change in the distribution of ice-free slopes, which influence a basin’s debris flow potential. These findings have implications for projections of debris flow activity in basins experiencing glacier change. The second study uses a variety of dating techniques to reconstruct a chronology of debris flows in the Kautz Creek valley on the southwest flank of Mount Rainier (Washington). Dendrochronologic dating of growth disturbances combined with lichenometric techniques constrained five debris flow ages from 1712 to 1915 AD. We also estimated ages of three debris flows ranging in age from ca. 970 to 1661. Run-out distances served as a proxy for debris flow magnitude, and indicate that at least 11, 2, and 1 debris flow(s) have traveled at least 1, 3, and 5 km from the valley head, respectively since ca. 1650. Valley form reflects the frequency-magnitude relationship indicated by the chronology. In the upper, relatively steep valley, discrete debris flow snouts and secondary channels are abundant, suggesting a process of debris flow conveyance, channel plugging, and channel avulsion. The lower valley is characterized by relatively smooth surfaces, an absence of bouldery debris flow snouts, few secondary channels, and relatively old surface ages inferred from the presence of tephra layers. We infer that the lower valley is deposited on by relatively infrequent, large magnitude, low-yield strength debris flows like an event in 1947, which deposited wide, tabular lobes of debris outside of the main channel. Debris flows during the Little Ice Age (LIA) predominantly traveled no further than the upper valley. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the main Kautz Creek channel was filled during the LIA, enhancing debris flow deposition on the valley surface and perhaps reducing run-out lengths. Diminished areas and gradients in front of glaciers during the LIA also likely contributed to decreased run-out lengths. These findings suggest that changes in debris flow source and depositional zones resulting from temperature and glacier cycles influence the magnitude and run-out distances of debris flows, and the dynamics of deposition in valley bottoms. Close