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• 71. [Article] Contracting for Social Service Client Transportation: Multnomah County, Oregon, Final Report

  The Multnomah County Aging Services Division (ASD) and the tri-county developmentally disabled programs provide transportation services for their elderly and handicapped clients primarily by contracting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Contracting for Social Service Client Transportation: Multnomah County, Oregon, Final Report Author: Dueker, Kenneth, David, Judy S. Year: 1987 The Multnomah County Aging Services Division (ASD) and the tri-county developmentally disabled programs provide transportation services for their elderly and handicapped clients primarily by contracting with TRI-MET, the regional transit district. This system is strained because the demands for transportation services are increasing, the cost of contracted services exceeds the county's transportation funds, the quality of service does not meet all clients' needs, and TRI-MET has been spending less of its primary funding sources on elderly and handicapped transportation. The county therefore contracted with the Center for Urban Studies of Portland State University, to examine the current provision of transportation services and to make recommendations for future actions. Title: Contracting for Social Service Client Transportation: Multnomah County, Oregon, Final Report Author: Dueker, Kenneth, David, Judy S. Year: 1987 The Multnomah County Aging Services Division (ASD) and the tri-county developmentally disabled programs provide transportation services for their elderly and handicapped clients primarily by contracting with TRI-MET, the regional transit district. This system is strained because the demands for transportation services are increasing, the cost of contracted services exceeds the county's transportation funds, the quality of service does not meet all clients' needs, and TRI-MET has been spending less of its primary funding sources on elderly and handicapped transportation. The county therefore contracted with the Center for Urban Studies of Portland State University, to examine the current provision of transportation services and to make recommendations for future actions. Close

• 72. [Article] College-Educated Flock to Central Oregon, Metropolitan Portland

  The number of college-educated Oregonians grew steadily during the past two decades — especially in Central Oregon — but there were significant regional disparities across the state, census data show. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: College-Educated Flock to Central Oregon, Metropolitan Portland Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Burnham, Michael Year: 2011 The number of college-educated Oregonians grew steadily during the past two decades — especially in Central Oregon — but there were significant regional disparities across the state, census data show. The proportion of Oregon residents age 25 and older with at least a bachelor’s degree grew from 20.6 percent in 1990 to 25.1 percent in 2000. The figure climbed to 28.3 percent during the 2005-2009 period, according to newly released American Community Survey (ACS) estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The margin of error for the five-year period was plus or minus 0.3 percent. Average educational attainment in the Portland metropolitan area, which includes Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties, was consistently higher than the state average during the past two decades. What’s more, the proportion of college-educated people in the three counties increased more precipitously than any other part of Oregon. Title: College-Educated Flock to Central Oregon, Metropolitan Portland Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Burnham, Michael Year: 2011 The number of college-educated Oregonians grew steadily during the past two decades — especially in Central Oregon — but there were significant regional disparities across the state, census data show. The proportion of Oregon residents age 25 and older with at least a bachelor’s degree grew from 20.6 percent in 1990 to 25.1 percent in 2000. The figure climbed to 28.3 percent during the 2005-2009 period, according to newly released American Community Survey (ACS) estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The margin of error for the five-year period was plus or minus 0.3 percent. Average educational attainment in the Portland metropolitan area, which includes Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties, was consistently higher than the state average during the past two decades. What’s more, the proportion of college-educated people in the three counties increased more precipitously than any other part of Oregon. Close

• 73. [Article] Oregon's Health Insurance Coverage Holds Steady, but the State's Uninsured Rate Remains High

  Data released in August 2012 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) program show that Oregon continues to have one of highest rates of uninsured residents in the U.S. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon's Health Insurance Coverage Holds Steady, but the State's Uninsured Rate Remains High Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Byerly, Jack Year: 2012 Data released in August 2012 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) program show that Oregon continues to have one of highest rates of uninsured residents in the U.S. According to Census estimates, 639,710 or 19.7 percent of Oregonians under age 65 were without health insurance coverage in 2010. For the under-65 population, Oregon’s uninsured rate ranks as the 15th highest rate in the country. Compared to 2009, the 2010 data show no statistically significant change in the overall uninsured rate for Oregon. Similarly, there were no statistically significant changes for Oregon between 2009 and 2010 by race/ethnicity or by income (Table 1). The highest rate of uninsured continue to be observed for Hispanic persons at 34.3 percent ( /- 1.3 percent) and for Oregonians earning 138% of the poverty level or less (34.7 percent [ /- 1.0 percent]). Title: Oregon's Health Insurance Coverage Holds Steady, but the State's Uninsured Rate Remains High Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Byerly, Jack Year: 2012 Data released in August 2012 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) program show that Oregon continues to have one of highest rates of uninsured residents in the U.S. According to Census estimates, 639,710 or 19.7 percent of Oregonians under age 65 were without health insurance coverage in 2010. For the under-65 population, Oregon’s uninsured rate ranks as the 15th highest rate in the country. Compared to 2009, the 2010 data show no statistically significant change in the overall uninsured rate for Oregon. Similarly, there were no statistically significant changes for Oregon between 2009 and 2010 by race/ethnicity or by income (Table 1). The highest rate of uninsured continue to be observed for Hispanic persons at 34.3 percent ( /- 1.3 percent) and for Oregonians earning 138% of the poverty level or less (34.7 percent [ /- 1.0 percent]). Close

• 74. [Article] Eugene 4J School District Population and Enrollment Forcasts 2016‐17 to 2025‐26

  The Eugene 4J School District (4J) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for the District and its schools in collaboration with Lane ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Eugene 4J School District Population and Enrollment Forcasts 2016‐17 to 2025‐26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 The Eugene 4J School District (4J) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for the District and its schools in collaboration with Lane Council of Governments (LCOG). This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for 4J for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Eugene 4J School District Population and Enrollment Forcasts 2016‐17 to 2025‐26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2016 The Eugene 4J School District (4J) requested that the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) prepare enrollment forecasts for the District and its schools in collaboration with Lane Council of Governments (LCOG). This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for 4J for the 10 year period between 2016‐17 and 2025‐26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 75. [Article] Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2016-17 to 2025-26

  This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD) for the 10 year period between 2016-17 and 2025-26. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD) for the 10 year period between 2016-17 and 2025-26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Forest Grove School District: Enrollment Forecast 2016-17 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 This report presents a series of three scenarios of district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Forest Grove School District (FGSD) for the 10 year period between 2016-17 and 2025-26. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 76. [Article] Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27

  This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2017‐18 and 2026‐27. Each ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2017‐18 and 2026‐27. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Title: Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2017-18 to 2026-27 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott, Yang, Xi Year: 2017 This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2017‐18 and 2026‐27. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period. Close

• 77. [Article] Interview with James B. (Jim) Knight

  James Knight was interviewed on April 24, 2017, by Michael Rupp. Jim Knight's career in public agencies spanned thirty-three years. From 1970 to 1974 he worked in Buffalo, New York, for the Erie County ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Interview with James B. (Jim) Knight Author: Knight, James B, Rupp, Michael Year: 2017 James Knight was interviewed on April 24, 2017, by Michael Rupp. Jim Knight's career in public agencies spanned thirty-three years. From 1970 to 1974 he worked in Buffalo, New York, for the Erie County Division of Planning and for the Office for the Aging. In June 1974 he joined the Oregon Department of Land Conservation (DLCD), which administers Oregon's land use planning program. He retired from DLCD in March 2003. Title: Interview with James B. (Jim) Knight Author: Knight, James B, Rupp, Michael Year: 2017 James Knight was interviewed on April 24, 2017, by Michael Rupp. Jim Knight's career in public agencies spanned thirty-three years. From 1970 to 1974 he worked in Buffalo, New York, for the Erie County Division of Planning and for the Office for the Aging. In June 1974 he joined the Oregon Department of Land Conservation (DLCD), which administers Oregon's land use planning program. He retired from DLCD in March 2003. Close

• 78. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates of a little more than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Culver posted the highest average annual growth rate 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jefferson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of steady natural increase— the difference between births and deaths—and substantial net in-migration from 2006 to 2008. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to declining natural increase. While net inmigration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—slowing population growth from 2010 to 2013. Total population in Jefferson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jefferson County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 11,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Madras UGB will likely show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20 year forecast period, but population growth is expected to slow during the last 30 years. Population within the Culver UGB is expected to grow at a much slower rate—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20-year forecast period. Population growth in Culver is also expected to taper throughout the last 30 years of the forecast period. The area outside UGBs is forecast to grow at a steadier, although lower rate than the UGBs throughout the forecast period. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates of a little more than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Culver posted the highest average annual growth rate 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Jefferson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of steady natural increase— the difference between births and deaths—and substantial net in-migration from 2006 to 2008. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led to declining natural increase. While net inmigration and steady natural increase contributed to population growth during the early and middle years of the last decade, both of these numbers shrank during more recent years—slowing population growth from 2010 to 2013. Total population in Jefferson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035) relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase (births minus deaths). As natural increase declines population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Jefferson County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 11,000 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). The Madras UGB will likely show slightly stronger population growth—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20 year forecast period, but population growth is expected to slow during the last 30 years. Population within the Culver UGB is expected to grow at a much slower rate—relative to the 2000s—in the initial 20-year forecast period. Population growth in Culver is also expected to taper throughout the last 30 years of the forecast period. The area outside UGBs is forecast to grow at a steadier, although lower rate than the UGBs throughout the forecast period. Close

• 79. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Klamath County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065

  Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and the local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Klamath ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Klamath County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and the local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Klamath County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000 with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Malin and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.4 and 0.7 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Klamath County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was due to the combination of net inmigration and natural increase (births minus deaths). At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration and natural increase both contributed to population growth from 2000 to 2010, in recent years (i.e., 2011-2014) these two numbers shrank—slowing population growth. Total population in Klamath County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase. As natural increase declines and becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Klamath County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035), but the county as whole is expected to see population decline over the last 30 years of the forecast period. With the exception of the area outside UGBs most sub-areas that saw population growth in the 2000s are forecast to have growth throughout the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population increase throughout the forecast period, but these gains will likely be small. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Klamath County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Gorecki, Carson, Tetrick, David Year: 2015 Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county, and the local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Klamath County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000 with average annual growth rates of less than one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Malin and the area outside UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.4 and 0.7 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Klamath County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was due to the combination of net inmigration and natural increase (births minus deaths). At the same time an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years and a consequent decline in births. The growing number of deaths and shrinking number of births led natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline from 2000 to 2014. While net in-migration and natural increase both contributed to population growth from 2000 to 2010, in recent years (i.e., 2011-2014) these two numbers shrank—slowing population growth. Total population in Klamath County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), and more slowly in the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to declining natural increase. As natural increase declines and becomes natural decrease, population growth is expected to become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Even so, Klamath County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,100 over the next 20 years (2015-2035), but the county as whole is expected to see population decline over the last 30 years of the forecast period. With the exception of the area outside UGBs most sub-areas that saw population growth in the 2000s are forecast to have growth throughout the forecast period. Some sub-areas that experienced population loss in the 2000s are expected to show population increase throughout the forecast period, but these gains will likely be small. Close

• 80. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Summerville posted the highest average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and Imbler and Union were close behind with average annual growth rates of about 1.2 percent each. Union County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the combined result of a consistent natural increase and a net in-migration. The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, accounting for the majority of Union County’s population increase. Total population in Union County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the nearer-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the longer-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Steady increase in net in-migration is expected to offset the growing natural decrease, leading to relatively steady population growth over the forecast period. However, an aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term stabilization in the number of births. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Union County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of half percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Summerville posted the highest average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and Imbler and Union were close behind with average annual growth rates of about 1.2 percent each. Union County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the combined result of a consistent natural increase and a net in-migration. The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, accounting for the majority of Union County’s population increase. Total population in Union County as a whole as well as within some of its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the nearer-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the longer-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration. Steady increase in net in-migration is expected to offset the growing natural decrease, leading to relatively steady population growth over the forecast period. However, an aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term stabilization in the number of births. Close