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• 281. [Article] An Inquiry into Portland's Canine Quandary: Recommendations for a Citywide Off-leash Program

  The City of Portland currently faces a difficult challenge. As the population continues to grow, greater pressure is placed upon the limited amount of public open space available for recreation. As stated ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: An Inquiry into Portland's Canine Quandary: Recommendations for a Citywide Off-leash Program Author: Gimour, Jeff, Gundersen, Heather, Miller, Doug, Moore, Emily, Rose, Amy Year: 2003 The City of Portland currently faces a difficult challenge. As the population continues to grow, greater pressure is placed upon the limited amount of public open space available for recreation. As stated in the Portland Parks & Recreation (PP&R) 2020 Vision Plan, "Demographic, recreational, and funding trends suggest that both current shortages and future needs will intensify and produce inequities in our cherished park system" (PP&R, 2001). Today, Portland's already strained park system struggles to accommodate demands for the myriad of recreational activities. Competition among park users - joggers, tennis players, picnickers, dog owners, bicyclists, and others - for limited resources will only intensify leading to a greater number conflicts in Portland parks. The case studies conducted for the project yielded valuable information about what other cities have done to implement successful off-leash programs. The fieldwork also produced many interesting findings regarding the needs and opinions of park users. Based upon this work, a set of final recommendations has been formulated that we hope will be given serious consideration by all of the stakeholders. This project was conducted under the supervision of Sy Adler and Jennifer Dill. Title: An Inquiry into Portland's Canine Quandary: Recommendations for a Citywide Off-leash Program Author: Gimour, Jeff, Gundersen, Heather, Miller, Doug, Moore, Emily, Rose, Amy Year: 2003 The City of Portland currently faces a difficult challenge. As the population continues to grow, greater pressure is placed upon the limited amount of public open space available for recreation. As stated in the Portland Parks & Recreation (PP&R) 2020 Vision Plan, "Demographic, recreational, and funding trends suggest that both current shortages and future needs will intensify and produce inequities in our cherished park system" (PP&R, 2001). Today, Portland's already strained park system struggles to accommodate demands for the myriad of recreational activities. Competition among park users - joggers, tennis players, picnickers, dog owners, bicyclists, and others - for limited resources will only intensify leading to a greater number conflicts in Portland parks. The case studies conducted for the project yielded valuable information about what other cities have done to implement successful off-leash programs. The fieldwork also produced many interesting findings regarding the needs and opinions of park users. Based upon this work, a set of final recommendations has been formulated that we hope will be given serious consideration by all of the stakeholders. This project was conducted under the supervision of Sy Adler and Jennifer Dill. Close

• 282. [Article] Milwaukie Downtown Revitalization Project: The Milwaukie Storefront (Economic Report)

  The Milwaukie Economic Profile and Retail Market Analysis prepared by the staff of the Milwaukie Storefront is intended to assist the City of Milwaukie in assessing the potential for expanding the retail ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Milwaukie Downtown Revitalization Project: The Milwaukie Storefront (Economic Report) Author: Thelander, Jerry, Frugoli, Sheila, Conrad, Larry, Edner, Sheldon, Harry, Tom Year: 1985 The Milwaukie Economic Profile and Retail Market Analysis prepared by the staff of the Milwaukie Storefront is intended to assist the City of Milwaukie in assessing the potential for expanding the retail base of its downtown and throughout its jurisdiction. It offers: 1) an inventory of commercial and retail activity within a two-mile radius of downtown Milwaukie; 2) an analysis of supportable square feet of retail and commercial space within this radius; 3) a demographic description of area residents; 4) a review of the 1982 survey of downtown patrons; 5) an analysis of the retail growth potential of the Milwaukie area. The conclusion of this report is that the City has the potential to maintain and strengthen its retail base through the addition of new types of retail trade. This assessment is based on the existence of sufficient untapped consumer purchasing power. The report does not recommend a specific strategy to tap this potential market but does identify certain classes of retail activity which might bear further consideration as the source of new retail development. The City must decide upon an appropriate set of policies to frame its business development goals. In this context the main findings of the report will be useful in identifying potential opportunities for future development. Title: Milwaukie Downtown Revitalization Project: The Milwaukie Storefront (Economic Report) Author: Thelander, Jerry, Frugoli, Sheila, Conrad, Larry, Edner, Sheldon, Harry, Tom Year: 1985 The Milwaukie Economic Profile and Retail Market Analysis prepared by the staff of the Milwaukie Storefront is intended to assist the City of Milwaukie in assessing the potential for expanding the retail base of its downtown and throughout its jurisdiction. It offers: 1) an inventory of commercial and retail activity within a two-mile radius of downtown Milwaukie; 2) an analysis of supportable square feet of retail and commercial space within this radius; 3) a demographic description of area residents; 4) a review of the 1982 survey of downtown patrons; 5) an analysis of the retail growth potential of the Milwaukie area. The conclusion of this report is that the City has the potential to maintain and strengthen its retail base through the addition of new types of retail trade. This assessment is based on the existence of sufficient untapped consumer purchasing power. The report does not recommend a specific strategy to tap this potential market but does identify certain classes of retail activity which might bear further consideration as the source of new retail development. The City must decide upon an appropriate set of policies to frame its business development goals. In this context the main findings of the report will be useful in identifying potential opportunities for future development. Close

• 283. [Article] Manager Retention and Job Change in the Transit Industry: A Survey of Manager Attitudes

  This paper examines issues related to the managerial personnel needs of the transit industry over the next five years. Specifically, we explore the career expectations reported by 1301 managers from 178 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Manager Retention and Job Change in the Transit Industry: A Survey of Manager Attitudes Author: White, Charles, Edner, Sheldon Year: 1987 This paper examines issues related to the managerial personnel needs of the transit industry over the next five years. Specifically, we explore the career expectations reported by 1301 managers from 178 agencies. Their responses are grouped based on whether they will be with the same transit agency, a different agency, retire, or leave the transit industry. These stated intentions are examined in relation to agency characteristics, individual demographics, professional experience, and evaluations of personal career development and opportunities. our survey results portray a significantly different transit manager than that described by Mundy and Spchalski in 1973. Current managers are younger, more highly educated, and more diverse in terms of training specialization and current function. Most did not plan a career in transit. Further, these "new" transit managers seem less wedded to a long term career in transit. While satisfied with current positions they are less positive about future career development and advancement opportunities offered by individual agencies and the industry. Three explanatory factors are suggested: 1) the training and experience of new managers, 2) the possible lack of a clear career ladder within the industry, and 3) the end of the period of rapid transit expansion. Our findings indicate that the industry may experience substantial managerial change over the next five years and that recruitment needs may be greater than forecast by TRB in 1985. These needs will be more pronounced for some management categories, specifically marketing, personnel, finance. Title: Manager Retention and Job Change in the Transit Industry: A Survey of Manager Attitudes Author: White, Charles, Edner, Sheldon Year: 1987 This paper examines issues related to the managerial personnel needs of the transit industry over the next five years. Specifically, we explore the career expectations reported by 1301 managers from 178 agencies. Their responses are grouped based on whether they will be with the same transit agency, a different agency, retire, or leave the transit industry. These stated intentions are examined in relation to agency characteristics, individual demographics, professional experience, and evaluations of personal career development and opportunities. our survey results portray a significantly different transit manager than that described by Mundy and Spchalski in 1973. Current managers are younger, more highly educated, and more diverse in terms of training specialization and current function. Most did not plan a career in transit. Further, these "new" transit managers seem less wedded to a long term career in transit. While satisfied with current positions they are less positive about future career development and advancement opportunities offered by individual agencies and the industry. Three explanatory factors are suggested: 1) the training and experience of new managers, 2) the possible lack of a clear career ladder within the industry, and 3) the end of the period of rapid transit expansion. Our findings indicate that the industry may experience substantial managerial change over the next five years and that recruitment needs may be greater than forecast by TRB in 1985. These needs will be more pronounced for some management categories, specifically marketing, personnel, finance. Close

• 284. [Article] The Contribution of Manager and Organizational Characteristics to Transit Agency Performance: A National Study of United States Transit Providers

  The primary objective of the report is to relate attitudinal and demographic characteristics of transit management personnel and agency institutional characteristics to agency performance. The purpose ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Contribution of Manager and Organizational Characteristics to Transit Agency Performance: A National Study of United States Transit Providers Author: White, Charles, Edner, Sheldon Year: 1989 The primary objective of the report is to relate attitudinal and demographic characteristics of transit management personnel and agency institutional characteristics to agency performance. The purpose of this analysis is to determine the relative contributions of manager and institutional characteristics as explanatory factors in transit agency performance. The study is based upon the responses of 1033 managers from 134 agencies representing the full range of agency size, institutional, and locational characteristics. Across six basic performance measures (coat efficiency, labor efficiency, service effectiveness, maintenance efficiency (measured in two different ways) and vehicle efficiency) used here, manager characteristics and attitudes do not appear to be consisteruly associated with performance outcomes. That is, while the analysis established that these are important factors, these relationships point in differina directions. Thus, efforts to increase manaaer capability may also add to the forces differentiati.na orpnizational capacity without contributing to overall industry performance. In sum, the twbulence experienced by the transit industry may not have lead it toward greater refinemenl of performance abilities but rather introduced even greater tension and centrifugal forces. The result may be an even further reduced ability to specify the keys to successful transit service delivery. It is also clear that the changing nature of the industry in terms of its role and function in wban settings may be reflected in our findings. Increasingly, efforts toward the development of new, specialized services have been paralleled by the development of new organizational provider types. In some instances this has brought new management opportunities, demands and attitudes into the industry. The elderly and handicapped have generated an increasing involvement of health service providers in transportation. The expectations of service performance have concurrently undergone re-examination. All transit agencies have focused on more than fixed route, scheduled service the keys to improved performance have changed with the service mix. Title: The Contribution of Manager and Organizational Characteristics to Transit Agency Performance: A National Study of United States Transit Providers Author: White, Charles, Edner, Sheldon Year: 1989 The primary objective of the report is to relate attitudinal and demographic characteristics of transit management personnel and agency institutional characteristics to agency performance. The purpose of this analysis is to determine the relative contributions of manager and institutional characteristics as explanatory factors in transit agency performance. The study is based upon the responses of 1033 managers from 134 agencies representing the full range of agency size, institutional, and locational characteristics. Across six basic performance measures (coat efficiency, labor efficiency, service effectiveness, maintenance efficiency (measured in two different ways) and vehicle efficiency) used here, manager characteristics and attitudes do not appear to be consisteruly associated with performance outcomes. That is, while the analysis established that these are important factors, these relationships point in differina directions. Thus, efforts to increase manaaer capability may also add to the forces differentiati.na orpnizational capacity without contributing to overall industry performance. In sum, the twbulence experienced by the transit industry may not have lead it toward greater refinemenl of performance abilities but rather introduced even greater tension and centrifugal forces. The result may be an even further reduced ability to specify the keys to successful transit service delivery. It is also clear that the changing nature of the industry in terms of its role and function in wban settings may be reflected in our findings. Increasingly, efforts toward the development of new, specialized services have been paralleled by the development of new organizational provider types. In some instances this has brought new management opportunities, demands and attitudes into the industry. The elderly and handicapped have generated an increasing involvement of health service providers in transportation. The expectations of service performance have concurrently undergone re-examination. All transit agencies have focused on more than fixed route, scheduled service the keys to improved performance have changed with the service mix. Close

• 285. [Article] Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated

  Few segments of the population are more critical to Portland’s future economic vitality than the young and college‐educated (YCE). In the last several decades the Portland metropolitan region has become ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 Few segments of the population are more critical to Portland’s future economic vitality than the young and college‐educated (YCE). In the last several decades the Portland metropolitan region has become a magnet for YCEs nationally, boasting one of the country’s highest net migration rates for college‐educated individuals under the age of 40, a trend that has continued in good economic times and bad. The infusion of human capital from other regions has undoubtedly been a benefit to Portland, especially given Oregon’s historically low levels of investment in higher education. However, in recent years there has been growing concern about the poor labor market prospects for Portland’s YCEs, in particular the problem of underemployment. The television show Portlandia has amusingly captured this concern, dubbing the city "the place where young people go to retire." To the extent that Portland’s YCEs face a chronically difficult job market, there is cause for concern that college graduates will stop moving to Portland, or that those who have moved here won’t stay. Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 Few segments of the population are more critical to Portland’s future economic vitality than the young and college‐educated (YCE). In the last several decades the Portland metropolitan region has become a magnet for YCEs nationally, boasting one of the country’s highest net migration rates for college‐educated individuals under the age of 40, a trend that has continued in good economic times and bad. The infusion of human capital from other regions has undoubtedly been a benefit to Portland, especially given Oregon’s historically low levels of investment in higher education. However, in recent years there has been growing concern about the poor labor market prospects for Portland’s YCEs, in particular the problem of underemployment. The television show Portlandia has amusingly captured this concern, dubbing the city "the place where young people go to retire." To the extent that Portland’s YCEs face a chronically difficult job market, there is cause for concern that college graduates will stop moving to Portland, or that those who have moved here won’t stay. Close

• 286. [Article] Agent-Based Model Simulating Pedestrian Behavioral Response to Environmental Structural Changes

  Our research focused on understanding the travel behavior of individuals in complex urban environments. Specifically, we investigated how land use patterns and infrastructure influence how individuals ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Agent-Based Model Simulating Pedestrian Behavioral Response to Environmental Structural Changes Author: Lobben, Amy, Bone, Christopher Year: 2016 Our research focused on understanding the travel behavior of individuals in complex urban environments. Specifically, we investigated how land use patterns and infrastructure influence how individuals across a broad range of travel abilities navigate through urban landscapes. Our overall project goal was to develop a transportation planning tool that allows users to simulate pedestrian travel behavior. The tool was built on a computation model that was developed through rigorous measures and observations of pedestrian travel behavior. Our definition of pedestrian includes a broad perspective as one of our aspirations through this project was to expand the definition of what constitutes livability for all citizens. Through the help of project collaborators, we recruited and included people with disabilities in our measurement and modeling research. This research was conducted through a four-stage research plan. Stages one and two included testing with and observation of research participants. In stage one, we asked participants to complete a sit-down test that measures demographics and cognitive travel decision-making. In stage two, we asked the same group of participants to conduct travel activities in an urban landscape. Stage three included using the measures and observations gathered through stages one and two to generate a computational model of pedestrian travel behavior. The final stage, four, focused on developing an easy-to-use interface that will allow transportation planners to directly interact with the pedestrian model developed in stage three. Title: Agent-Based Model Simulating Pedestrian Behavioral Response to Environmental Structural Changes Author: Lobben, Amy, Bone, Christopher Year: 2016 Our research focused on understanding the travel behavior of individuals in complex urban environments. Specifically, we investigated how land use patterns and infrastructure influence how individuals across a broad range of travel abilities navigate through urban landscapes. Our overall project goal was to develop a transportation planning tool that allows users to simulate pedestrian travel behavior. The tool was built on a computation model that was developed through rigorous measures and observations of pedestrian travel behavior. Our definition of pedestrian includes a broad perspective as one of our aspirations through this project was to expand the definition of what constitutes livability for all citizens. Through the help of project collaborators, we recruited and included people with disabilities in our measurement and modeling research. This research was conducted through a four-stage research plan. Stages one and two included testing with and observation of research participants. In stage one, we asked participants to complete a sit-down test that measures demographics and cognitive travel decision-making. In stage two, we asked the same group of participants to conduct travel activities in an urban landscape. Stage three included using the measures and observations gathered through stages one and two to generate a computational model of pedestrian travel behavior. The final stage, four, focused on developing an easy-to-use interface that will allow transportation planners to directly interact with the pedestrian model developed in stage three. Close

• 287. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  During the 2000s, Malheur County, as a whole, experienced population decline (Figure 1); however three of its sub-areas recorded a slight population increase. Adrian grew at an average annual rate of nearly ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 During the 2000s, Malheur County, as a whole, experienced population decline (Figure 1); however three of its sub-areas recorded a slight population increase. Adrian grew at an average annual rate of nearly two percent, while Ontario and the area outside UGBs saw more modest growth rates. Even so the population loss recorded by Vale, Nyssa, and Jordan Valley totaled nearly 600, leading the countywide population to decrease. Malheur County’s population decline in the 2000s was the combined result of a diminishing natural increase and periods of substantial net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015. Net out-migration slowed toward the end of the last decade (2000-2010) combining with a relatively steady natural increase for moderate population increase in four out of the five years since 2010. Malheur County’s total population is forecast to grow by a little more than 400 persons (1.3 percent) from 2016 to 2066, which translates into a total countywide population of nearly 32,000 in 2066 (Figure 1). Population growth is forecast to be modest, becoming increasingly so as time progresses through the forecast period. Forecasting modest population growth is driven by both an aging population—contributing to a steady increase in deaths over the entire forecast period—as well as diminishing net out-migration. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 During the 2000s, Malheur County, as a whole, experienced population decline (Figure 1); however three of its sub-areas recorded a slight population increase. Adrian grew at an average annual rate of nearly two percent, while Ontario and the area outside UGBs saw more modest growth rates. Even so the population loss recorded by Vale, Nyssa, and Jordan Valley totaled nearly 600, leading the countywide population to decrease. Malheur County’s population decline in the 2000s was the combined result of a diminishing natural increase and periods of substantial net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015. Net out-migration slowed toward the end of the last decade (2000-2010) combining with a relatively steady natural increase for moderate population increase in four out of the five years since 2010. Malheur County’s total population is forecast to grow by a little more than 400 persons (1.3 percent) from 2016 to 2066, which translates into a total countywide population of nearly 32,000 in 2066 (Figure 1). Population growth is forecast to be modest, becoming increasingly so as time progresses through the forecast period. Forecasting modest population growth is driven by both an aging population—contributing to a steady increase in deaths over the entire forecast period—as well as diminishing net out-migration. Close

• 288. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Grant County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Grant County’s total population has declined since 2000, losing an average of about 50 persons per year between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). With the exception of minimal population increase among three small ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Grant County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Grant County’s total population has declined since 2000, losing an average of about 50 persons per year between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). With the exception of minimal population increase among three small UGBs, every sub-area recorded population loss during the 2000s. Prairie City and the area outside UGBs posted the largest losses, losing on average about 17 and 19 persons per year, respectively. Grant County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a consistent natural decrease as well as relatively steady net out-migration (Figure 12). The smaller number of births relative to deaths led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in nearly every year from 2000 to 2015. While net out-migration was common during the last decade (2000-2010), in recent years (2010-2015) net in-migration has occurred. Even so, natural decrease has persisted and generally exceeded net in-migration, leading to continued population decline. Grant County is expected to experience population decline over the 50-year forecast period. This population loss will likely occur at a relatively uniform rate among the county’s sub-areas, with losses occurring at an increasing rate as time progresses. For Grant County as a whole, increasing natural decrease and relatively steady net in-migration are expected to lead to population decline. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net in-migration is expected to persist throughout the entire forecast period, but will not fully offset the natural decrease, leading to population decline. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Grant County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Grant County’s total population has declined since 2000, losing an average of about 50 persons per year between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). With the exception of minimal population increase among three small UGBs, every sub-area recorded population loss during the 2000s. Prairie City and the area outside UGBs posted the largest losses, losing on average about 17 and 19 persons per year, respectively. Grant County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a consistent natural decrease as well as relatively steady net out-migration (Figure 12). The smaller number of births relative to deaths led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in nearly every year from 2000 to 2015. While net out-migration was common during the last decade (2000-2010), in recent years (2010-2015) net in-migration has occurred. Even so, natural decrease has persisted and generally exceeded net in-migration, leading to continued population decline. Grant County is expected to experience population decline over the 50-year forecast period. This population loss will likely occur at a relatively uniform rate among the county’s sub-areas, with losses occurring at an increasing rate as time progresses. For Grant County as a whole, increasing natural decrease and relatively steady net in-migration are expected to lead to population decline. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net in-migration is expected to persist throughout the entire forecast period, but will not fully offset the natural decrease, leading to population decline. Close

• 289. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Gilliam County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Gilliam County’s total population declined during the 2000s, with average annual growth rate of negative two-tenths of one percent (Figure 1); however, since 2010 the county has seen a slight increase ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Gilliam County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Gilliam County’s total population declined during the 2000s, with average annual growth rate of negative two-tenths of one percent (Figure 1); however, since 2010 the county has seen a slight increase in population, growing by more than 100 persons between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Gilliam County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural decrease and periods of net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease in nearly every year from 2000 to 2010. While net in-migration fluctuated during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been increased stably during recent years, contributing to population increase since 2009. Total population in Gilliam County as a whole is expected to increase over the forecast period, with the majority of this growth occurring within Arlington UGB (Figure 1). Increasing net in-migration is expected to offset the growth in the natural decrease throughout the entire 50-year forecast period. An aging population in the near-term is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a steady number of births. During the final 31 years of the forecast period, the population is expected to shift toward younger ages leading to more births and a steady number of deaths. This combined with steady net in-migration is expected to lead to continued steady population growth. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Gilliam County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Gilliam County’s total population declined during the 2000s, with average annual growth rate of negative two-tenths of one percent (Figure 1); however, since 2010 the county has seen a slight increase in population, growing by more than 100 persons between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). Gilliam County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural decrease and periods of net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease in nearly every year from 2000 to 2010. While net in-migration fluctuated during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been increased stably during recent years, contributing to population increase since 2009. Total population in Gilliam County as a whole is expected to increase over the forecast period, with the majority of this growth occurring within Arlington UGB (Figure 1). Increasing net in-migration is expected to offset the growth in the natural decrease throughout the entire 50-year forecast period. An aging population in the near-term is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a steady number of births. During the final 31 years of the forecast period, the population is expected to shift toward younger ages leading to more births and a steady number of deaths. This combined with steady net in-migration is expected to lead to continued steady population growth. Close

• 290. [Article] Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066

  Baker County’s population declined between 2000 and 2010, losing on average of just over 60 people per year (Figure 1); however in recent years this pattern has changed and population increase has occurred. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Baker County’s population declined between 2000 and 2010, losing on average of just over 60 people per year (Figure 1); however in recent years this pattern has changed and population increase has occurred. Between 2010 and 2015 the county added on average about 20 persons per year (Figure 2). Baker County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of natural decrease and periods of substantial net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years (2010-2015), contributing to population increase. Total population in Baker County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the three sub-areas of Baker City, Richland, and Sumpter (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the last 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of growing natural decrease, which is expected to surpass net in-migration between 2030 and 2035. Overall the county is forecast to see nearly no net change in population over the entire 50-year period, beginning the forecast at around 16,400 in 2016 and ending at about 16,400 in 2066. Title: Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Ruan, Xiaomin, Proehl, Risa, Jurjevich, Jason R., Rancik, Kevin, Kessi, Janai, Tetrick, David, Michel, Julia Year: 2016 Baker County’s population declined between 2000 and 2010, losing on average of just over 60 people per year (Figure 1); however in recent years this pattern has changed and population increase has occurred. Between 2010 and 2015 the county added on average about 20 persons per year (Figure 2). Baker County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of natural decrease and periods of substantial net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years (2010-2015), contributing to population increase. Total population in Baker County is forecast to increase in the near-term (2016 to 2035), a trend that is driven by growth in the three sub-areas of Baker City, Richland, and Sumpter (Figure 1); however population decline is expected for the county over the last 31 years of the forecast period. This population decrease is the result of growing natural decrease, which is expected to surpass net in-migration between 2030 and 2035. Overall the county is forecast to see nearly no net change in population over the entire 50-year period, beginning the forecast at around 16,400 in 2016 and ending at about 16,400 in 2066. Close