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• 11. [Article] The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market

  On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2016 On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit Union, concerned that history may already be repeating itself, asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate speculation within the Portland housing market, provide a forecast of home prices, and summarize potential market headwinds and tailwinds. To accomplish this, NERC estimates the change in local home prices due to ‘fundamental’ drivers. Using population and income to estimate a fundamental home price index (HPI), this analysis compares the fundamental HPI with the actual level of the Case-Shiller HPI to indicate that home values within the Portland MSA are, within a margin of error, correctly valued. This method indicates that increasing growth in income and migration significantly contributes to rising home prices. This comparison also shows a period of undervaluation following the burst of the last bubble, which helps to explain the price growth of the past few years (the ‘expansion phase’ of the recovery). This analysis uses Error-Correction (EC), General Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to forecast the inflation-adjusted Case Shiller HPI to the end of the year. The inherent strengths and weaknesses of these models necessitate a discussion of their assumptions and consequent limitations. Encouragingly, each of the models describes the same basic story: that average home sale prices will increase at a decreasing growth rate from June to at least December 2016. Changes to land use and building height restrictions are among the external shocks to home prices not included in the model. Since predicting policy decisions is fraught with risk, real-world awareness of potential political outcomes should accompany all forecasts based on known factors. Due to data limitations, not all of the indicators NERC feels are important to HPI are explicitly included in the models. Instead, these indicators offer supporting evidence. Generally, they describe a tight housing market with high demand (as indicated by income, employment, and migration) and low supply (as indicated by housing permits and inventory levels). This analysis corroborates the model estimations and supports the forecasts. Title: The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2016 On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit Union, concerned that history may already be repeating itself, asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate speculation within the Portland housing market, provide a forecast of home prices, and summarize potential market headwinds and tailwinds. To accomplish this, NERC estimates the change in local home prices due to ‘fundamental’ drivers. Using population and income to estimate a fundamental home price index (HPI), this analysis compares the fundamental HPI with the actual level of the Case-Shiller HPI to indicate that home values within the Portland MSA are, within a margin of error, correctly valued. This method indicates that increasing growth in income and migration significantly contributes to rising home prices. This comparison also shows a period of undervaluation following the burst of the last bubble, which helps to explain the price growth of the past few years (the ‘expansion phase’ of the recovery). This analysis uses Error-Correction (EC), General Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to forecast the inflation-adjusted Case Shiller HPI to the end of the year. The inherent strengths and weaknesses of these models necessitate a discussion of their assumptions and consequent limitations. Encouragingly, each of the models describes the same basic story: that average home sale prices will increase at a decreasing growth rate from June to at least December 2016. Changes to land use and building height restrictions are among the external shocks to home prices not included in the model. Since predicting policy decisions is fraught with risk, real-world awareness of potential political outcomes should accompany all forecasts based on known factors. Due to data limitations, not all of the indicators NERC feels are important to HPI are explicitly included in the models. Instead, these indicators offer supporting evidence. Generally, they describe a tight housing market with high demand (as indicated by income, employment, and migration) and low supply (as indicated by housing permits and inventory levels). This analysis corroborates the model estimations and supports the forecasts. Close

• 12. [Article] Residential Mobility and Revitalization in Portland Between 1970 and 1980: A Study of the Urban Structural Impacts on Neighborhood Revitalization

  Evidence of physical decline due in part to the rapid encroachment of commercial and industrial activity into some of Portland's residential areas in the mid-1960s and efforts to combat the forces of time ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Residential Mobility and Revitalization in Portland Between 1970 and 1980: A Study of the Urban Structural Impacts on Neighborhood Revitalization Author: Kamara, Sheka Gassimou Year: 1992 Evidence of physical decline due in part to the rapid encroachment of commercial and industrial activity into some of Portland's residential areas in the mid-1960s and efforts to combat the forces of time and change through neighborhood revitalization provide the basis for this study. Additionally, some of the characteristics often employed in explaining the phenomenon in cities are manifested in the city of Portland. For example, Portland is endowed with a distinctive and well established downtown area that provides opportunities for the establishment of businesses as well as white-collar job opportunities. By the standards of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Portland has a relatively large population and several older neighborhoods. The city provides its residents the feel for inner-city living, such as its beautiful waterfront scenery, its high-rise and park block apartments, its cultural facilities and unique transit mall. These criteria underscore the selection of Portland as the geographical area of this research. The purpose of this research itself is to assess the urban structural changes that occurred in Portland between 1970 and 1980. The research used a sample of inner-city neighborhoods from the city to explain these structural changes over time. Additionally, two samples of neighborhoods (Northeast and Southeast) within the city were selected as the basis for comparing the structural changes. The data developed from the 1970 and 1980 census of population and housing characteristics comprised the change in the median household income ratio, the change in the home value ratio, and the change in the median rent ratio designated as dependent variables. Nine independent variables representing the pre-existing conditions in the city at the start of the decade were selected from locational, demographic, and housing factors. The research hypotheses were tested by regresslng the three dependent variables against the nine independent variables resulting in three regression models for each sample. The a priori expectations as reflected by the signs of the coefficients show mixed support for the hypotheses in each sample in predicted direction, and in level of significance. In the city sample the neighborhood housing quality factor was observed to have a strong positive causal relationship with neighborhood revitalization. The outcome confirmed the contention that a significant and systematic reverse revival trend occurred in Portland at the start of the 1970 decade. This finding contradicts the conventional invasion-succession theory associated with Burgess (1925). Similar reverse revival trends were observed in the Northeast and Southeast samples. But unlike the city sample the race factor had a strong positive causal relationship with revitalization. The outcome may be a reflection of the rental squeeze in terms of housing affordability faced by black renters in both subareas because their incomes could not keep pace with housing costs. Consequently their demand for rental housing may have grown faster than the supply of the rental housing stock in a segregated rental market. The chow tests show significant structural differences between the two submodels, but the impact of the race factor as reflected by the measures of relative variability was greater in Northeast Portland than in Southeast Portland. In light of the research findings, this study concludes that Portland may undoubtedly be the only city in the nation that experienced a significant and systematic revival trend between 1970 and 1980. However, this trend did not extend to the predominantly black areas of the city as reflected by the strong negative outcome of the race factor. In addition, the functional significance of the systematic revival trend in Portland may not be substantial when compared to larger and older cities like St. Louis and New Orleans that received media attention for a similar trend. Title: Residential Mobility and Revitalization in Portland Between 1970 and 1980: A Study of the Urban Structural Impacts on Neighborhood Revitalization Author: Kamara, Sheka Gassimou Year: 1992 Evidence of physical decline due in part to the rapid encroachment of commercial and industrial activity into some of Portland's residential areas in the mid-1960s and efforts to combat the forces of time and change through neighborhood revitalization provide the basis for this study. Additionally, some of the characteristics often employed in explaining the phenomenon in cities are manifested in the city of Portland. For example, Portland is endowed with a distinctive and well established downtown area that provides opportunities for the establishment of businesses as well as white-collar job opportunities. By the standards of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Portland has a relatively large population and several older neighborhoods. The city provides its residents the feel for inner-city living, such as its beautiful waterfront scenery, its high-rise and park block apartments, its cultural facilities and unique transit mall. These criteria underscore the selection of Portland as the geographical area of this research. The purpose of this research itself is to assess the urban structural changes that occurred in Portland between 1970 and 1980. The research used a sample of inner-city neighborhoods from the city to explain these structural changes over time. Additionally, two samples of neighborhoods (Northeast and Southeast) within the city were selected as the basis for comparing the structural changes. The data developed from the 1970 and 1980 census of population and housing characteristics comprised the change in the median household income ratio, the change in the home value ratio, and the change in the median rent ratio designated as dependent variables. Nine independent variables representing the pre-existing conditions in the city at the start of the decade were selected from locational, demographic, and housing factors. The research hypotheses were tested by regresslng the three dependent variables against the nine independent variables resulting in three regression models for each sample. The a priori expectations as reflected by the signs of the coefficients show mixed support for the hypotheses in each sample in predicted direction, and in level of significance. In the city sample the neighborhood housing quality factor was observed to have a strong positive causal relationship with neighborhood revitalization. The outcome confirmed the contention that a significant and systematic reverse revival trend occurred in Portland at the start of the 1970 decade. This finding contradicts the conventional invasion-succession theory associated with Burgess (1925). Similar reverse revival trends were observed in the Northeast and Southeast samples. But unlike the city sample the race factor had a strong positive causal relationship with revitalization. The outcome may be a reflection of the rental squeeze in terms of housing affordability faced by black renters in both subareas because their incomes could not keep pace with housing costs. Consequently their demand for rental housing may have grown faster than the supply of the rental housing stock in a segregated rental market. The chow tests show significant structural differences between the two submodels, but the impact of the race factor as reflected by the measures of relative variability was greater in Northeast Portland than in Southeast Portland. In light of the research findings, this study concludes that Portland may undoubtedly be the only city in the nation that experienced a significant and systematic revival trend between 1970 and 1980. However, this trend did not extend to the predominantly black areas of the city as reflected by the strong negative outcome of the race factor. In addition, the functional significance of the systematic revival trend in Portland may not be substantial when compared to larger and older cities like St. Louis and New Orleans that received media attention for a similar trend. Close