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• 11. [Article] Population Outlook for the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Region

  While many people both inside and outside Oregon envision the state as a place of picturesque coastal bluffs, mountain ranges, the Columbia River Gorge, and oldgrowth forests, the population is primarily ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Outlook for the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Region Author: Hough, George C., Jr., Koski, Amy Year: 2007 While many people both inside and outside Oregon envision the state as a place of picturesque coastal bluffs, mountain ranges, the Columbia River Gorge, and oldgrowth forests, the population is primarily urban. It has been for many decades. In 2000, three-quarters of Oregon’s 3.4 million residents lived in towns and cities. Almost one-half of Oregon’s population lived in the metropolitan Portland area. This paper offers an overview of population dynamics in the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area, which includes five of Oregon’s thirty-six counties–Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill–and Clark County in the state of Washington. It refers to the “metropolitan Portland-Vancouver area” as the total area including the Oregon and Washington counties and to the “metropolitan Portland area” when limiting discussion to the five Oregon counties. It describes current trends for population growth; the effect of births, deaths, and migration on population growth; how the age, sex, and ethnic composition are changing; and where residents live. Finally, the paper discusses the dynamics for future growth and their implications. Title: Population Outlook for the Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Region Author: Hough, George C., Jr., Koski, Amy Year: 2007 While many people both inside and outside Oregon envision the state as a place of picturesque coastal bluffs, mountain ranges, the Columbia River Gorge, and oldgrowth forests, the population is primarily urban. It has been for many decades. In 2000, three-quarters of Oregon’s 3.4 million residents lived in towns and cities. Almost one-half of Oregon’s population lived in the metropolitan Portland area. This paper offers an overview of population dynamics in the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area, which includes five of Oregon’s thirty-six counties–Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill–and Clark County in the state of Washington. It refers to the “metropolitan Portland-Vancouver area” as the total area including the Oregon and Washington counties and to the “metropolitan Portland area” when limiting discussion to the five Oregon counties. It describes current trends for population growth; the effect of births, deaths, and migration on population growth; how the age, sex, and ethnic composition are changing; and where residents live. Finally, the paper discusses the dynamics for future growth and their implications. Close

• 12. [Article] The Effects of Commuter Rail on Population Deconcentration and Commuting: A Salt Lake City Case Study

  All transportation systems have the ability to transform human settlement patterns, which can affect a range of social, economic and environmental issues. Considering investments in rail infrastructure ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Effects of Commuter Rail on Population Deconcentration and Commuting: A Salt Lake City Case Study Author: Ganning, Joanna, Beaudoin, Mercedes, Brewer, Simon, Kim, Keuntae, Park, Keunhyun Year: 2016 All transportation systems have the ability to transform human settlement patterns, which can affect a range of social, economic and environmental issues. Considering investments in rail infrastructure have increased in recent decades (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2007; Israel & Cohen-Blankshtain, 2010), it is important for planners and researchers to understand how these rail systems influence land use, metropolitan development patterns, and population migration. The following paragraphs summarize the studies and their findings. The Effects of Commuter Rail Establishment on the Relationships between the Built Environment, Travel Behavior, and Residential Self- Selection (RSS): To help regional and transportation planners better understand the role that commuter rail plays in directing intra-regional development, this chapter provides a longitudinal investigation of the influence of commuter rail on surrounding neighborhoods’ RSS, travel behavior and the built environment. We first analyze the role of commuter rail establishment in influencing change in neighborhood-level demographics, housing and economics (signs of RSS), and travel behavior. Second, we compare surveyed commuter rail riders to residents of the commuter rail stations’ host and neighboring areas. The results indicate that the development of commuter rail does not alter the host tracts in any of the characteristics observed, but rather suppresses population growth in neighboring tracts. Paired with direct evidence from a commuter rail user survey, we conclude that the use of commuter rail is more likely influenced by the built environment than by RSS. The Effects of Commuter Rail Establishment on Population Deconcentration: Research to date has not established the efficacy of commuter rail systems in attracting migrants most likely to use such an amenity. Through the application of a modified population deconcentration model, this chapter finds that the provision of a commuter rail station significantly increases neighborhood-level out-commuting and gross migration, which signals success in attracting migrants requiring commuting infrastructure. These findings also signal that commuter rail encourages regional population deconcentration, but the evidence is insufficient to form a conclusion and the evidence from Chapters 2 and 4 signal otherwise. Developing an Agent-Based Model (ABM) For Estimation of Land Use Changes around Commuter Rail Stations over Time: This chapter improves the understanding of commuter rails’ effect on future land use changes through spatial interaction modeling. In particular, we develop an innovative agent-based model (ABM) that allows us to estimate and visualize the probability of land use changes per parcel based on proximity to commuter rail stations, freeway exits, and the region’s central business district. Briefly, this chapter concludes that the development of a commuter rail station is statistically significantly associated with decreases in single-family residential land use near the station, which is met by increases in multifamily and mixed-use development. The spatial effects of stations on individual land uses vary by land use type, and no generalizable area of influence could be established. This report points to potential future research, as well as implications for planning practitioners. Title: The Effects of Commuter Rail on Population Deconcentration and Commuting: A Salt Lake City Case Study Author: Ganning, Joanna, Beaudoin, Mercedes, Brewer, Simon, Kim, Keuntae, Park, Keunhyun Year: 2016 All transportation systems have the ability to transform human settlement patterns, which can affect a range of social, economic and environmental issues. Considering investments in rail infrastructure have increased in recent decades (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2007; Israel & Cohen-Blankshtain, 2010), it is important for planners and researchers to understand how these rail systems influence land use, metropolitan development patterns, and population migration. The following paragraphs summarize the studies and their findings. The Effects of Commuter Rail Establishment on the Relationships between the Built Environment, Travel Behavior, and Residential Self- Selection (RSS): To help regional and transportation planners better understand the role that commuter rail plays in directing intra-regional development, this chapter provides a longitudinal investigation of the influence of commuter rail on surrounding neighborhoods’ RSS, travel behavior and the built environment. We first analyze the role of commuter rail establishment in influencing change in neighborhood-level demographics, housing and economics (signs of RSS), and travel behavior. Second, we compare surveyed commuter rail riders to residents of the commuter rail stations’ host and neighboring areas. The results indicate that the development of commuter rail does not alter the host tracts in any of the characteristics observed, but rather suppresses population growth in neighboring tracts. Paired with direct evidence from a commuter rail user survey, we conclude that the use of commuter rail is more likely influenced by the built environment than by RSS. The Effects of Commuter Rail Establishment on Population Deconcentration: Research to date has not established the efficacy of commuter rail systems in attracting migrants most likely to use such an amenity. Through the application of a modified population deconcentration model, this chapter finds that the provision of a commuter rail station significantly increases neighborhood-level out-commuting and gross migration, which signals success in attracting migrants requiring commuting infrastructure. These findings also signal that commuter rail encourages regional population deconcentration, but the evidence is insufficient to form a conclusion and the evidence from Chapters 2 and 4 signal otherwise. Developing an Agent-Based Model (ABM) For Estimation of Land Use Changes around Commuter Rail Stations over Time: This chapter improves the understanding of commuter rails’ effect on future land use changes through spatial interaction modeling. In particular, we develop an innovative agent-based model (ABM) that allows us to estimate and visualize the probability of land use changes per parcel based on proximity to commuter rail stations, freeway exits, and the region’s central business district. Briefly, this chapter concludes that the development of a commuter rail station is statistically significantly associated with decreases in single-family residential land use near the station, which is met by increases in multifamily and mixed-use development. The spatial effects of stations on individual land uses vary by land use type, and no generalizable area of influence could be established. This report points to potential future research, as well as implications for planning practitioners. Close

• 13. [Article] The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market

  On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2016 On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit Union, concerned that history may already be repeating itself, asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate speculation within the Portland housing market, provide a forecast of home prices, and summarize potential market headwinds and tailwinds. To accomplish this, NERC estimates the change in local home prices due to ‘fundamental’ drivers. Using population and income to estimate a fundamental home price index (HPI), this analysis compares the fundamental HPI with the actual level of the Case-Shiller HPI to indicate that home values within the Portland MSA are, within a margin of error, correctly valued. This method indicates that increasing growth in income and migration significantly contributes to rising home prices. This comparison also shows a period of undervaluation following the burst of the last bubble, which helps to explain the price growth of the past few years (the ‘expansion phase’ of the recovery). This analysis uses Error-Correction (EC), General Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to forecast the inflation-adjusted Case Shiller HPI to the end of the year. The inherent strengths and weaknesses of these models necessitate a discussion of their assumptions and consequent limitations. Encouragingly, each of the models describes the same basic story: that average home sale prices will increase at a decreasing growth rate from June to at least December 2016. Changes to land use and building height restrictions are among the external shocks to home prices not included in the model. Since predicting policy decisions is fraught with risk, real-world awareness of potential political outcomes should accompany all forecasts based on known factors. Due to data limitations, not all of the indicators NERC feels are important to HPI are explicitly included in the models. Instead, these indicators offer supporting evidence. Generally, they describe a tight housing market with high demand (as indicated by income, employment, and migration) and low supply (as indicated by housing permits and inventory levels). This analysis corroborates the model estimations and supports the forecasts. Title: The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2016 On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit Union, concerned that history may already be repeating itself, asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate speculation within the Portland housing market, provide a forecast of home prices, and summarize potential market headwinds and tailwinds. To accomplish this, NERC estimates the change in local home prices due to ‘fundamental’ drivers. Using population and income to estimate a fundamental home price index (HPI), this analysis compares the fundamental HPI with the actual level of the Case-Shiller HPI to indicate that home values within the Portland MSA are, within a margin of error, correctly valued. This method indicates that increasing growth in income and migration significantly contributes to rising home prices. This comparison also shows a period of undervaluation following the burst of the last bubble, which helps to explain the price growth of the past few years (the ‘expansion phase’ of the recovery). This analysis uses Error-Correction (EC), General Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to forecast the inflation-adjusted Case Shiller HPI to the end of the year. The inherent strengths and weaknesses of these models necessitate a discussion of their assumptions and consequent limitations. Encouragingly, each of the models describes the same basic story: that average home sale prices will increase at a decreasing growth rate from June to at least December 2016. Changes to land use and building height restrictions are among the external shocks to home prices not included in the model. Since predicting policy decisions is fraught with risk, real-world awareness of potential political outcomes should accompany all forecasts based on known factors. Due to data limitations, not all of the indicators NERC feels are important to HPI are explicitly included in the models. Instead, these indicators offer supporting evidence. Generally, they describe a tight housing market with high demand (as indicated by income, employment, and migration) and low supply (as indicated by housing permits and inventory levels). This analysis corroborates the model estimations and supports the forecasts. Close

• 14. [Article] Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated

  Few segments of the population are more critical to Portland’s future economic vitality than the young and college‐educated (YCE). In the last several decades the Portland metropolitan region has become ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 Few segments of the population are more critical to Portland’s future economic vitality than the young and college‐educated (YCE). In the last several decades the Portland metropolitan region has become a magnet for YCEs nationally, boasting one of the country’s highest net migration rates for college‐educated individuals under the age of 40, a trend that has continued in good economic times and bad. The infusion of human capital from other regions has undoubtedly been a benefit to Portland, especially given Oregon’s historically low levels of investment in higher education. However, in recent years there has been growing concern about the poor labor market prospects for Portland’s YCEs, in particular the problem of underemployment. The television show Portlandia has amusingly captured this concern, dubbing the city "the place where young people go to retire." To the extent that Portland’s YCEs face a chronically difficult job market, there is cause for concern that college graduates will stop moving to Portland, or that those who have moved here won’t stay. Title: Is Portland Really the Place Where Young People Go To Retire? Analyzing Labor Market Outcomes for Portland’s Young and College-Educated Author: Jurjevich, Jason R., Schrock, Greg Year: 2012 Few segments of the population are more critical to Portland’s future economic vitality than the young and college‐educated (YCE). In the last several decades the Portland metropolitan region has become a magnet for YCEs nationally, boasting one of the country’s highest net migration rates for college‐educated individuals under the age of 40, a trend that has continued in good economic times and bad. The infusion of human capital from other regions has undoubtedly been a benefit to Portland, especially given Oregon’s historically low levels of investment in higher education. However, in recent years there has been growing concern about the poor labor market prospects for Portland’s YCEs, in particular the problem of underemployment. The television show Portlandia has amusingly captured this concern, dubbing the city "the place where young people go to retire." To the extent that Portland’s YCEs face a chronically difficult job market, there is cause for concern that college graduates will stop moving to Portland, or that those who have moved here won’t stay. Close