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• 51. [Article] Evaluating the Planning and Implementation of Major Transit Capital Projects in the Portland Region

  The Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) discretionary New Starts program is the federal government's largest discretionary funding program. From heavy to light rail, from commuter rail to bus rapid ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluating the Planning and Implementation of Major Transit Capital Projects in the Portland Region Author: Recker, Joseph Year: 2014 The Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) discretionary New Starts program is the federal government's largest discretionary funding program. From heavy to light rail, from commuter rail to bus rapid transit systems, the FTA's New Starts program has helped to make possible hundreds of new or extended transit fixed guideway systems across the country, including most of TriMet’s light rail extensions and WES commuter rail. Beginning in 2001, FTA has required project sponsors to prepare a Before and After Study report on the effectiveness of planning and implementation of New Starts and Small Starts projects. The studies focus on five transit characteristics – project scope, capital costs, operating and maintenance costs, service levels, and ridership behavior – and compares these characteristics at various planning milestones, as well as before and after implementation of the project. TriMet, in conjunction with FTA, has completed or nearly completed Before and After Study reports for three projects – Interstate MAX, WES Commuter Rail, and the Green Line – and is in the process of working on two more. This presentation will briefly describe the federal New Starts program, FTA requirements for Before and After Studies, summarize findings from the three TriMet studies and provide comparisons with other completed New Starts projects across the U.S. Title: Evaluating the Planning and Implementation of Major Transit Capital Projects in the Portland Region Author: Recker, Joseph Year: 2014 The Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) discretionary New Starts program is the federal government's largest discretionary funding program. From heavy to light rail, from commuter rail to bus rapid transit systems, the FTA's New Starts program has helped to make possible hundreds of new or extended transit fixed guideway systems across the country, including most of TriMet’s light rail extensions and WES commuter rail. Beginning in 2001, FTA has required project sponsors to prepare a Before and After Study report on the effectiveness of planning and implementation of New Starts and Small Starts projects. The studies focus on five transit characteristics – project scope, capital costs, operating and maintenance costs, service levels, and ridership behavior – and compares these characteristics at various planning milestones, as well as before and after implementation of the project. TriMet, in conjunction with FTA, has completed or nearly completed Before and After Study reports for three projects – Interstate MAX, WES Commuter Rail, and the Green Line – and is in the process of working on two more. This presentation will briefly describe the federal New Starts program, FTA requirements for Before and After Studies, summarize findings from the three TriMet studies and provide comparisons with other completed New Starts projects across the U.S. Close

• 52. [Article] Consistent Estimation of Route Choice Models for Dynamic Transit Assignment

  Dynamic transit assignment models have the potential to improve local transportation agencies’ capability to forecast the demand for public transit facilities under conditions of limited capacity or varying ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Consistent Estimation of Route Choice Models for Dynamic Transit Assignment Author: Hood, Jeff Year: 2016 Dynamic transit assignment models have the potential to improve local transportation agencies’ capability to forecast the demand for public transit facilities under conditions of limited capacity or varying reliability. In order to be useful in practice, the simulated route choices of passengers in these models need to reflect the behavior of actual residents observed in local travel surveys. Most analysis methods of revealed route choice preferences developed to date have either (1) not been proven to provide consistent estimates or (2) required an untenable computation time for practical applications. Furthermore, no model of transit route choice has accounted for variability in both passenger behavior and vehicle arrivals. This seminar will focus on an econometric framework that Hood Transportation Consulting designed to overcome these limitations in partnership with the second FHWA Strategic Highway Research Program, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission of the San Francisco Bay Area, the San Francisco County Transportation Authority, and the Puget Sound Regional Council. The framework is based on a recursive logit model where the traveler makes a series of dynamic choices which maximize the conditional expected utility of travel to the destination, given the sequence of vehicles which have already arrived. The model also contains new size variables to correct for the correlations caused by route overlap. Application of the new correction formulas to illustrative examples demonstrates that predictions with the model more closely match theoretically correct results than existing methods. Title: Consistent Estimation of Route Choice Models for Dynamic Transit Assignment Author: Hood, Jeff Year: 2016 Dynamic transit assignment models have the potential to improve local transportation agencies’ capability to forecast the demand for public transit facilities under conditions of limited capacity or varying reliability. In order to be useful in practice, the simulated route choices of passengers in these models need to reflect the behavior of actual residents observed in local travel surveys. Most analysis methods of revealed route choice preferences developed to date have either (1) not been proven to provide consistent estimates or (2) required an untenable computation time for practical applications. Furthermore, no model of transit route choice has accounted for variability in both passenger behavior and vehicle arrivals. This seminar will focus on an econometric framework that Hood Transportation Consulting designed to overcome these limitations in partnership with the second FHWA Strategic Highway Research Program, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission of the San Francisco Bay Area, the San Francisco County Transportation Authority, and the Puget Sound Regional Council. The framework is based on a recursive logit model where the traveler makes a series of dynamic choices which maximize the conditional expected utility of travel to the destination, given the sequence of vehicles which have already arrived. The model also contains new size variables to correct for the correlations caused by route overlap. Application of the new correction formulas to illustrative examples demonstrates that predictions with the model more closely match theoretically correct results than existing methods. Close

• 53. [Article] A Study of Headway Maintenance for Bus Routes: Causes and Effects of “Bus Bunching” in Extensive and Congested Service Areas

  A healthy and efficient public transit system is indispensable to reduce congestion, emissions, energy consumption, and car dependency in urban areas. The objective of this research is to 1) develop methods ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Study of Headway Maintenance for Bus Routes: Causes and Effects of “Bus Bunching” in Extensive and Congested Service Areas Author: Figliozzi, Miguel A., Feng, Wu-chi, Lafferriere, Gerardo, Feng, Wei Year: 2012 A healthy and efficient public transit system is indispensable to reduce congestion, emissions, energy consumption, and car dependency in urban areas. The objective of this research is to 1) develop methods to evaluate and visualize bus service reliability for transit agencies in various temporal and spatial aggregation levels; 2) identify the recurrent unreliability trends of bus routes (focusing on high-frequency service periods) and understand their characteristics, causes and effects; and 3) model service times using linear regression models. This research utilized six months of archived automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger count (APC) data from a low-performance route (Route 15) of TriMet, the public transit provider in the Portland metropolitan area. Route 15 has experienced difficulties in terms of schedule adherence and headway regularity. This research developed methods to summarize causes of bus bunching. We first determined the frequency of each cause (expressed as percentages) meeting pre-determined thresholds. Next, we performed a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate how cause percentage results change using varying difficulty levels of bus bunching thresholds. Finally, we investigated how cause percentage results vary spatially along different route segments. This research also developed novel ways to summarize and visualize vast amounts of bus route operations data in an insightful and intuitive manner: 1) a route/stop level visualization performance measure framework using color contour diagrams and 2) a dynamic interactive bus monitoring visualization framework based on a Google Maps platform. Visualizations proposed in this study can aid transit agency managers and operators to identify operational problems and better understand how such problems propagate spatially and temporally across routes. Finally, regression models were estimated to understand the key factors impacting dwell and travel times. Title: A Study of Headway Maintenance for Bus Routes: Causes and Effects of “Bus Bunching” in Extensive and Congested Service Areas Author: Figliozzi, Miguel A., Feng, Wu-chi, Lafferriere, Gerardo, Feng, Wei Year: 2012 A healthy and efficient public transit system is indispensable to reduce congestion, emissions, energy consumption, and car dependency in urban areas. The objective of this research is to 1) develop methods to evaluate and visualize bus service reliability for transit agencies in various temporal and spatial aggregation levels; 2) identify the recurrent unreliability trends of bus routes (focusing on high-frequency service periods) and understand their characteristics, causes and effects; and 3) model service times using linear regression models. This research utilized six months of archived automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger count (APC) data from a low-performance route (Route 15) of TriMet, the public transit provider in the Portland metropolitan area. Route 15 has experienced difficulties in terms of schedule adherence and headway regularity. This research developed methods to summarize causes of bus bunching. We first determined the frequency of each cause (expressed as percentages) meeting pre-determined thresholds. Next, we performed a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate how cause percentage results change using varying difficulty levels of bus bunching thresholds. Finally, we investigated how cause percentage results vary spatially along different route segments. This research also developed novel ways to summarize and visualize vast amounts of bus route operations data in an insightful and intuitive manner: 1) a route/stop level visualization performance measure framework using color contour diagrams and 2) a dynamic interactive bus monitoring visualization framework based on a Google Maps platform. Visualizations proposed in this study can aid transit agency managers and operators to identify operational problems and better understand how such problems propagate spatially and temporally across routes. Finally, regression models were estimated to understand the key factors impacting dwell and travel times. Close

• 54. [Article] Transit Bus Fleet Age and Replacement Type Optimization

  Due to recent budget and fiscal constraints, it is ever more imperative for transit agencies to manage their fleets in an optimal way. Fleet data have consistently shown that bus operational and maintenance ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Transit Bus Fleet Age and Replacement Type Optimization Author: Figliozzi, Miguel A., Feng, Wei, Boudart, Jesse Year: 2013 Due to recent budget and fiscal constraints, it is ever more imperative for transit agencies to manage their fleets in an optimal way. Fleet data have consistently shown that bus operational and maintenance (O&M) per-mile costs increase as buses age. From a purely economic perspective, there is a cost tradeoff between the lower O&M costs of newer fleets and their higher initial capital costs. This tradeoff has a significant impact on the optimal timing of purchase and replacement decisions. Utilizing realistic cost data and an optimization modeling framework, we analyze (a) the impact of purchase timing decisions on fleet per-mile costs and (b) the key factors and variables affecting the optimization of transit diesel and hybrid bus fleets. Given uncertain and hard-to-forecast market variables, multiple scenarios are examined and sensitivity analyses are performed to study the impacts of key variables on optimal replacement policies and costs. In terms of the impact of purchase timing decisions on fleet per-mile costs (a), results indicate that: 1) increases in diesel prices do not affect total bus fleet costs as much as increases in maintenance costs; 2) increases in maintenance costs and utilization per year reduce the optimal replacement age; 3) increases in utilization and fuel economy have a similar impact in terms of total fleet costs; and 4) bus purchase-price changes have a significant impact on the optimal replacement age. In terms of the key factors and variables affecting the optimization of transit diesel and hybrid bus fleets (b), results indicate that: 1) the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) purchase cost subsidy has the highest impact on the optimal replacement policies; 2) without the FTA subsidy, the optimal policy is to choose the diesel bus unless the purchase cost difference is larger than 10%; 3) with an 80% FTA purchase cost subsidy, the hybrid bus is always the best choice unless fuel economy difference between the hybrid and diesel buses is substantial; 4) maintenance costs affect the optimal replacement age but are unlikely to change the optimal bus type when comparing diesel and hybrid technologies; and 5) greenhouse gas emissions costs are not significant and affect neither bus type nor replacement age. Title: Transit Bus Fleet Age and Replacement Type Optimization Author: Figliozzi, Miguel A., Feng, Wei, Boudart, Jesse Year: 2013 Due to recent budget and fiscal constraints, it is ever more imperative for transit agencies to manage their fleets in an optimal way. Fleet data have consistently shown that bus operational and maintenance (O&M) per-mile costs increase as buses age. From a purely economic perspective, there is a cost tradeoff between the lower O&M costs of newer fleets and their higher initial capital costs. This tradeoff has a significant impact on the optimal timing of purchase and replacement decisions. Utilizing realistic cost data and an optimization modeling framework, we analyze (a) the impact of purchase timing decisions on fleet per-mile costs and (b) the key factors and variables affecting the optimization of transit diesel and hybrid bus fleets. Given uncertain and hard-to-forecast market variables, multiple scenarios are examined and sensitivity analyses are performed to study the impacts of key variables on optimal replacement policies and costs. In terms of the impact of purchase timing decisions on fleet per-mile costs (a), results indicate that: 1) increases in diesel prices do not affect total bus fleet costs as much as increases in maintenance costs; 2) increases in maintenance costs and utilization per year reduce the optimal replacement age; 3) increases in utilization and fuel economy have a similar impact in terms of total fleet costs; and 4) bus purchase-price changes have a significant impact on the optimal replacement age. In terms of the key factors and variables affecting the optimization of transit diesel and hybrid bus fleets (b), results indicate that: 1) the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) purchase cost subsidy has the highest impact on the optimal replacement policies; 2) without the FTA subsidy, the optimal policy is to choose the diesel bus unless the purchase cost difference is larger than 10%; 3) with an 80% FTA purchase cost subsidy, the hybrid bus is always the best choice unless fuel economy difference between the hybrid and diesel buses is substantial; 4) maintenance costs affect the optimal replacement age but are unlikely to change the optimal bus type when comparing diesel and hybrid technologies; and 5) greenhouse gas emissions costs are not significant and affect neither bus type nor replacement age. Close

• 55. [Article] Exploiting New Data Sources to Quantify Arterial Congestion and Performance Measures at a Regional Scale

  Transit travel time, operating speed and reliability all influence service attractiveness, operating cost and system efficiency. These metrics have a long-term impact on system effectiveness through a ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Exploiting New Data Sources to Quantify Arterial Congestion and Performance Measures at a Regional Scale Author: Figliozzi, Miguel, Bertini, Robert L., Glick, Travis B, Stoll, Nicholas B, Feng, Wei, Sidhu, Bobjot S., Pande, Anurag Year: 2017 Transit travel time, operating speed and reliability all influence service attractiveness, operating cost and system efficiency. These metrics have a long-term impact on system effectiveness through a change in ridership. As part of its bus dispatch system (BDS), the Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District of Oregon (TriMet) has been archiving automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger count (APC) data for all bus trips at the stop level since 1997. In 2014, a new and higher-resolution bus AVL data collection system was fully implemented. This new AVL system provides stop-level data as well as five-second resolution (5-SR) bus position data between stops. Rather than relying on interpolation tools to estimate bus trajectories (including stops and delays) between stops, the higher-resolution data shows more precise bus positions along each trip. Bus travel speeds and intersection signal/queuing delays may be determined using this newer information of several variables on transit travel time. This research project explored potential applications of the new data for assessing transit performance, and for estimating transportation system performance measures for urban streets and arterials. Results suggest that the 5-SR data provides high-resolution time and position information which can be used to determine bus travel speeds between stops, identify speed breakdowns, and estimate intersection signal/queuing delays. Additionally, high-resolution achieved bus data can be used to visualize sources of congestion and delay on urban arterials. A new inter-stop trip time model was developed using the five-second resolution data. This newly developed model resulted in statistically significant and improved results over previous models. The models for overall travel time indicated that dwell time and average speed between stops were the major factors influencing transit travel time. Hence, it was concluded that estimation of average speed between stops is a critical component of the transit trip time models. Using this 5-SR data in the trip time model led to more precise and statistically valid trip time models. The research provides conclusions that can be used by transit agencies to improve operations through improvements such as transit signal priority. More importantly, for transit agencies looking for ways to archive data the research provides recommendations on formatting the data that can be most useful for future analysis. Title: Exploiting New Data Sources to Quantify Arterial Congestion and Performance Measures at a Regional Scale Author: Figliozzi, Miguel, Bertini, Robert L., Glick, Travis B, Stoll, Nicholas B, Feng, Wei, Sidhu, Bobjot S., Pande, Anurag Year: 2017 Transit travel time, operating speed and reliability all influence service attractiveness, operating cost and system efficiency. These metrics have a long-term impact on system effectiveness through a change in ridership. As part of its bus dispatch system (BDS), the Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District of Oregon (TriMet) has been archiving automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger count (APC) data for all bus trips at the stop level since 1997. In 2014, a new and higher-resolution bus AVL data collection system was fully implemented. This new AVL system provides stop-level data as well as five-second resolution (5-SR) bus position data between stops. Rather than relying on interpolation tools to estimate bus trajectories (including stops and delays) between stops, the higher-resolution data shows more precise bus positions along each trip. Bus travel speeds and intersection signal/queuing delays may be determined using this newer information of several variables on transit travel time. This research project explored potential applications of the new data for assessing transit performance, and for estimating transportation system performance measures for urban streets and arterials. Results suggest that the 5-SR data provides high-resolution time and position information which can be used to determine bus travel speeds between stops, identify speed breakdowns, and estimate intersection signal/queuing delays. Additionally, high-resolution achieved bus data can be used to visualize sources of congestion and delay on urban arterials. A new inter-stop trip time model was developed using the five-second resolution data. This newly developed model resulted in statistically significant and improved results over previous models. The models for overall travel time indicated that dwell time and average speed between stops were the major factors influencing transit travel time. Hence, it was concluded that estimation of average speed between stops is a critical component of the transit trip time models. Using this 5-SR data in the trip time model led to more precise and statistically valid trip time models. The research provides conclusions that can be used by transit agencies to improve operations through improvements such as transit signal priority. More importantly, for transit agencies looking for ways to archive data the research provides recommendations on formatting the data that can be most useful for future analysis. Close