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• 171. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2011-12 to 2020-21

  The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past five years. This study includes forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past five years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2011-12 to 2020-21 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2011-12 to 2015-16. The 10 year horizon of the district-wide forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in five out of six years since 2004-05, contributing to a net loss of 394 students (7.4 percent) in the ten year period since 2000-01. The K-12 total in Fall 2010 was 4,895 students. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2011 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past five years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2011-12 to 2020-21 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2011-12 to 2015-16. The 10 year horizon of the district-wide forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in five out of six years since 2004-05, contributing to a net loss of 394 students (7.4 percent) in the ten year period since 2000-01. The K-12 total in Fall 2010 was 4,895 students. Close

• 172. [Article] Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31

  The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Title: Bend-La Pine School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2010-11 to 2030-31 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Lycan, Richard, West, David Year: 2010 The Bend-La Pine School District (BLPSD) enrolled 15,898 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 61 students from Fall 2008. This followed a loss of 13 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2008. These two most recent years are in sharp contrast with the previous 19 years of uninterrupted gains of more than 200 students each year. K-12 enrollment growth averaged about 350 students per year from 1990 to 2000, and about 400 students per year from 2000 to 2007. The enrollment trends align closely with the housing and employment trends described in this report. Housing growth began to slow early in 2007, job losses became evident by the end of 2007, and the migration of families with children into the District tapered off beginning in 2008. In spite of this slowdown, there is still momentum from the District’s recent high population growth and increase in births. All school levels, elementary, middle, and high, remain at or near their all time high enrollments. Kindergarten and 1st grade enrollments, typically the leading indicators of shifting enrollment trends, have not declined. They were each slightly larger in Fall 2009 than in Fall 2007. The primary purpose of this study by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) is to provide school Enrollment Forecasts that will be used by the District, Deschutes County, and the City of Bend for long range planning. These district-wide forecasts by grade level for the BLPSD are consistent with the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast (DCCPF) adopted by the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners in September 2004. Close

• 173. [Article] Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20

  The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Title: Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, West, David Year: 2010 The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district-wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past four years. This study includes forecasts of district-wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2010-11 to 2019-20 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2010-11 to 2014-15. Previous district-wide forecasts only extended for five years; a 10 year forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. After many years of growth, K-12 enrollment in the Canby School District reached about 5,300 students in 2000-01 and remained at that level through the 2004-05 school year. Enrollment has declined in four out of five years since 2004-05, amounting to a net loss of 324 students (6.1 percent) in the period. The K-12 total in Fall 2009 was 4,978 students. Until the past few years, the District’s expanding housing stock and growing Latino population compensated for the loss of enrollment that would have occurred due to the aging of the existing population. Due to the current regional job losses and paucity of new housing development as well as the large number of graduating high school students, the number of new students moving into the District is currently not sufficient to prevent small losses in enrollment. In this study, we examine enrollment trends by housing type, showing a loss of more than 300 students since 2006-07 residing in single family homes built before 2000 and a gain of about 300 students living in homes built since 2000 and rental apartments. Close

• 174. [Article] Ashland School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2018-19

  The area served by the Ashland School District (ASD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District's K-12 school enrollment of 2,627 students in Fall 2008 was 703 students ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Ashland School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2018-19 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The area served by the Ashland School District (ASD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District's K-12 school enrollment of 2,627 students in Fall 2008 was 703 students (21 percent) fewer than it enrolled in Fall 2000. The long period of falling enrollment began after the 1993-94 school year; enrollment has not grown by more than a few students in any year since. In 10 of the last 15 years there have been significant K-12 enrollment losses ranging from 31 to 133 students. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the ASD from 2009-10 to 2018-19. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for relatively stable total K-12 enrollment in the ASD during the next 10 years. However, growth in elementary grades will be offset by decline in secondary enrollments as smaller classes continue to work their way through the grade levels. Title: Ashland School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2009-10 to 2018-19 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Radin, Kenneth, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The area served by the Ashland School District (ASD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District's K-12 school enrollment of 2,627 students in Fall 2008 was 703 students (21 percent) fewer than it enrolled in Fall 2000. The long period of falling enrollment began after the 1993-94 school year; enrollment has not grown by more than a few students in any year since. In 10 of the last 15 years there have been significant K-12 enrollment losses ranging from 31 to 133 students. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the ASD from 2009-10 to 2018-19. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for relatively stable total K-12 enrollment in the ASD during the next 10 years. However, growth in elementary grades will be offset by decline in secondary enrollments as smaller classes continue to work their way through the grade levels. Close

• 175. [Article] Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18

  This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although the forecasts for the next three to four years are for stable or slightly declining K-12 enrollments. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a “HIGH SCENARIO” forecast that is consistent with the population forecast recently adopted in the City of Banks Comprehensive Plan, and a “LOW SCENARIO” forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels. This study also presents estimates of the number of students per housing unit within the District. We found that student generation is higher in homes within the City of Banks than those in unincorporated Washington County. More significantly, BSD student generation rates are higher in newer homes (Arbor Village and Banks Estates in the City and homes built since 2000 in the unincorporated area) than in older homes. Detailed information about the average number of BSD students per home is presented in the “Housing Development and Student Generation” section of this report. Title: Banks School District Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 TO 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth in the long run, although the forecasts for the next three to four years are for stable or slightly declining K-12 enrollments. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a “HIGH SCENARIO” forecast that is consistent with the population forecast recently adopted in the City of Banks Comprehensive Plan, and a “LOW SCENARIO” forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels. This study also presents estimates of the number of students per housing unit within the District. We found that student generation is higher in homes within the City of Banks than those in unincorporated Washington County. More significantly, BSD student generation rates are higher in newer homes (Arbor Village and Banks Estates in the City and homes built since 2000 in the unincorporated area) than in older homes. Detailed information about the average number of BSD students per home is presented in the “Housing Development and Student Generation” section of this report. Close

• 176. [Article] McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2012-13

  The McMinnville School District (MSD) has experienced nearly uninterrupted enrollment growth for more than 20 years due to a growing economy and rapid housing and population growth within its boundaries. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2012-13 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The McMinnville School District (MSD) has experienced nearly uninterrupted enrollment growth for more than 20 years due to a growing economy and rapid housing and population growth within its boundaries. By Fall 2007, total K-12 enrollment reached 6,327 students. The Fall 2007 enrollment was an increase of 97 students over Fall 2006, and amounted to 735 more K-12 students than five years earlier, in 2002-03. During the five year period, elementary schools added 371 students (14 percent), middle schools added 171 students (13 percent), and high schools added 193 students (11 percent). This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth to continue over the next five years at all school levels. The forecast of 647 additional students (10 percent) between 2007-08 and 2012-13 is only slightly less growth than the previous five year period. Title: McMinnville School District Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2012-13 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 The McMinnville School District (MSD) has experienced nearly uninterrupted enrollment growth for more than 20 years due to a growing economy and rapid housing and population growth within its boundaries. By Fall 2007, total K-12 enrollment reached 6,327 students. The Fall 2007 enrollment was an increase of 97 students over Fall 2006, and amounted to 735 more K-12 students than five years earlier, in 2002-03. During the five year period, elementary schools added 371 students (14 percent), middle schools added 171 students (13 percent), and high schools added 193 students (11 percent). This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the District should expect enrollment growth to continue over the next five years at all school levels. The forecast of 647 additional students (10 percent) between 2007-08 and 2012-13 is only slightly less growth than the previous five year period. Close

• 177. [Article] Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18

  The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five percent lower than its 1999-00 peak of 2,839. The enrollment decline is largely attributed to the smaller elementary classes of the early 2000s, compared with the peak enrollments of the middle to late 1990s. Middle school enrollment peaked in 2003-04, and high school enrollment peaked in 2005-06. Although secondary school enrollment has been declining in the past few years, elementary enrollment has been relatively stable since 2002-03. The number of incoming kindergarten and 1st grade students has remained steady, and in three of the past four years elementary grade cohorts have grown due to net migration of school-age residents into the District. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the PTSD from 2008-09 to 2017-18. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for modest enrollment growth in the PTSD during the next 10 years. Title: Phoenix-Talent School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 The area served by the Phoenix-Talent School District (PTSD) has experienced population and housing growth in recent years, but the District’s K-12 school enrollment of 2,708 students in 2007-08 was five percent lower than its 1999-00 peak of 2,839. The enrollment decline is largely attributed to the smaller elementary classes of the early 2000s, compared with the peak enrollments of the middle to late 1990s. Middle school enrollment peaked in 2003-04, and high school enrollment peaked in 2005-06. Although secondary school enrollment has been declining in the past few years, elementary enrollment has been relatively stable since 2002-03. The number of incoming kindergarten and 1st grade students has remained steady, and in three of the past four years elementary grade cohorts have grown due to net migration of school-age residents into the District. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) containing Enrollment Forecasts for the PTSD from 2008-09 to 2017-18. We conclude that the most likely scenario is for modest enrollment growth in the PTSD during the next 10 years. Close

• 178. [Article] Reynolds School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2017-18

  Since 1997-98, Reynolds School District (RSD) overall K-12 enrollment has increased by 28 percent, from 8,452 students in 1997-98 to 10,815 in 2007-08, with most of the growth occurring between 1998-99 ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Reynolds School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Smith-Buani, Joseph, Hough, George C., Jr., Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 Since 1997-98, Reynolds School District (RSD) overall K-12 enrollment has increased by 28 percent, from 8,452 students in 1997-98 to 10,815 in 2007-08, with most of the growth occurring between 1998-99 and 2003-04. After one year with little enrollment change (2004-05), the district has added 452 students in the most recent three years. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the most likely scenario for future RSD enrollment is for slow growth in K-12 enrollment during the next five years until 2012-13, and slightly faster growth in the following five year period between 2012-13 and 2017-18. Title: Reynolds School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Smith-Buani, Joseph, Hough, George C., Jr., Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2008 Since 1997-98, Reynolds School District (RSD) overall K-12 enrollment has increased by 28 percent, from 8,452 students in 1997-98 to 10,815 in 2007-08, with most of the growth occurring between 1998-99 and 2003-04. After one year with little enrollment change (2004-05), the district has added 452 students in the most recent three years. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the most likely scenario for future RSD enrollment is for slow growth in K-12 enrollment during the next five years until 2012-13, and slightly faster growth in the following five year period between 2012-13 and 2017-18. Close

• 179. [Article] Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18

  The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell by 143 students, or 15 percent. This year’s enrollment of 822 represents an increase of 20 students (2.5 percent) from Fall 2006, the largest increase since 1994. The long period of decline initially had its greatest impact on elementary grades, followed by middle school and more recently high school. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the Amity District should not expect enrollment declines to continue in the long run, although about three more years of small losses are forecast at the high school level. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a "baseline" forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels, and a "high range" forecast that anticipates higher migration levels, primarily due to an increase in housing development. Title: Amity School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 The Amity School District (ASD) experienced enrollment growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reached a peak of 945 K-12 students in Fall 1994. In the 12 years that followed, enrollment fell by 143 students, or 15 percent. This year’s enrollment of 822 represents an increase of 20 students (2.5 percent) from Fall 2006, the largest increase since 1994. The long period of decline initially had its greatest impact on elementary grades, followed by middle school and more recently high school. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the Amity District should not expect enrollment declines to continue in the long run, although about three more years of small losses are forecast at the high school level. Two forecast scenarios are presented, a "baseline" forecast under which housing development and migration trends remain similar to their recent levels, and a "high range" forecast that anticipates higher migration levels, primarily due to an increase in housing development. Close

• 180. [Article] Grants Pass School District 7: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18

  Total K-12 enrollment in the Grants Pass School District 7 (GPSD) has fallen in the most recent two years, between 2005-06 and 2006-07 and again between 2006-07 and 2007- 08. This is the first time in ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Grants Pass School District 7: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 Total K-12 enrollment in the Grants Pass School District 7 (GPSD) has fallen in the most recent two years, between 2005-06 and 2006-07 and again between 2006-07 and 2007- 08. This is the first time in at least 20 years that the District has had two consecutive years of enrollment decline. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the downturn in enrollment will not continue in the long run and that the most likely scenario is for moderate enrollment growth of about 520 additional K-12 students between 2007-08 and 2017-18. The growth represents a nine percent increase over current enrollment, or an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. The study includes a population forecast for the area served by the GPSD for the years 2010 and 2020. In the 20 years between 2000 and 2020, the District is expected to add about 12,800 persons overall, growing from about 31,700 in 2000 to 44,500 in 2020. The average annual population growth forecast is 1.7 percent. Title: Grants Pass School District 7: Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 Total K-12 enrollment in the Grants Pass School District 7 (GPSD) has fallen in the most recent two years, between 2005-06 and 2006-07 and again between 2006-07 and 2007- 08. This is the first time in at least 20 years that the District has had two consecutive years of enrollment decline. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) concluding that the downturn in enrollment will not continue in the long run and that the most likely scenario is for moderate enrollment growth of about 520 additional K-12 students between 2007-08 and 2017-18. The growth represents a nine percent increase over current enrollment, or an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. The study includes a population forecast for the area served by the GPSD for the years 2010 and 2020. In the 20 years between 2000 and 2020, the District is expected to add about 12,800 persons overall, growing from about 31,700 in 2000 to 44,500 in 2020. The average annual population growth forecast is 1.7 percent. Close