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• 1. [Article] Evaluating Simplistic Methods to Understand Current Distributions and Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor coypus)

  Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluating Simplistic Methods to Understand Current Distributions and Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor coypus) Author: Jarnevich, Catherine S., Young, Nicholas E., Sheffels, Trevor R., Carter, Jacoby, Sytsma, Mark D., Talbert, Colin Year: 2017 Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions. Title: Evaluating Simplistic Methods to Understand Current Distributions and Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor coypus) Author: Jarnevich, Catherine S., Young, Nicholas E., Sheffels, Trevor R., Carter, Jacoby, Sytsma, Mark D., Talbert, Colin Year: 2017 Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions. Close

• 2. [Article] Northern Range Expansion and Coastal Occurrences of the New Zealand Mud Snail Potamopyrgus Antipodarum (Gray, 1843) in the Northeast Pacific

  The New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray, 1843) is a common invasive species in fresh and brackish water ecosystems in Europe, Australia, Japan, and North America. In some invaded habitats, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Northern Range Expansion and Coastal Occurrences of the New Zealand Mud Snail Potamopyrgus Antipodarum (Gray, 1843) in the Northeast Pacific Author: Davidson, Timothy Mathias, Brenneis, Valance E. F., de Rivera, Catherine E., Draheim, Robyn, Gillespie, Graham E. Year: 2008 The New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray, 1843) is a common invasive species in fresh and brackish water ecosystems in Europe, Australia, Japan, and North America. In some invaded habitats, P. antipodarum can reach high densities (over 500,000 snails m-2) and dominate the biomass of the benthos, leading to detrimental impacts to native biota and changes in ecosystem dynamics. We report the previously unpublished occurrence of P. antipodarum in thirteen fresh and brackish water systems adjacent to the Pacific coast of North America including a new northern range for P. antipodarum: Port Alberni, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada (49.2479º, -124.8395º). We hypothesize the snail was spread from the Columbia River Estuary to Port Alberni via recreational watercraft or infected fishing equipment. Its discovery in Port Alberni reveals the potential for other aquatic nuisance species in the lower Columbia River to spread to British Columbia. Resource managers on the Pacific coast should remain vigilant and educate the public to prevent the further spread of the P. antipodarum as well as other aquatic invaders. Title: Northern Range Expansion and Coastal Occurrences of the New Zealand Mud Snail Potamopyrgus Antipodarum (Gray, 1843) in the Northeast Pacific Author: Davidson, Timothy Mathias, Brenneis, Valance E. F., de Rivera, Catherine E., Draheim, Robyn, Gillespie, Graham E. Year: 2008 The New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gray, 1843) is a common invasive species in fresh and brackish water ecosystems in Europe, Australia, Japan, and North America. In some invaded habitats, P. antipodarum can reach high densities (over 500,000 snails m-2) and dominate the biomass of the benthos, leading to detrimental impacts to native biota and changes in ecosystem dynamics. We report the previously unpublished occurrence of P. antipodarum in thirteen fresh and brackish water systems adjacent to the Pacific coast of North America including a new northern range for P. antipodarum: Port Alberni, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada (49.2479º, -124.8395º). We hypothesize the snail was spread from the Columbia River Estuary to Port Alberni via recreational watercraft or infected fishing equipment. Its discovery in Port Alberni reveals the potential for other aquatic nuisance species in the lower Columbia River to spread to British Columbia. Resource managers on the Pacific coast should remain vigilant and educate the public to prevent the further spread of the P. antipodarum as well as other aquatic invaders. Close

• 3. [Article] Biotic Resistance to Invasion: Native Predator Limits Abundance and Distribution of an Introduced Crab

  Introduced species frequently escape the natural enemies (predators, competitors, and parasites) that limit their distribution and abundance in the native range. This reduction in native predators, competitors, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Biotic Resistance to Invasion: Native Predator Limits Abundance and Distribution of an Introduced Crab Author: de Rivera, Catherine E., Ruiz, Greg M., Hines, Anson, Jivoff, Paul Year: 2005 Introduced species frequently escape the natural enemies (predators, competitors, and parasites) that limit their distribution and abundance in the native range. This reduction in native predators, competitors, and parasites may result in ecological release in the introduced range. However, biological interactions also can limit the establishment and spread of nonnative populations. The extent to which such biotic resistance occurs is poorly resolved, especially for marine ecosystems. Here we test whether a native predator, the blue crab Callinectes sapidus, affects the abundance and geographic range of the introduced European green crab Carcinus maenas in eastern North America. Both crab species occur in shallow, soft-sediment habitats of bays and estuaries, and their ranges overlap in eastern North America. First, we tested for a negative relationship in the abundances of the two species from trap samples across a 640-km (5.78° latitude) coastal transect. Second, we estimated variation in predation pressure on tethered Carcinus maenas across latitude and as a function of Callinectes sapidus abundance. Third, we measured predation rates on Carcinus maenas by Callinectes sapidus in field and laboratory experiments. Our results support the hypothesis that the native predator Callinectes sapidus provides biotic resistance to invasion and prevents the southward spread and establishment of Carcinus maenas. Within and across bays, Carcinus maenas were significantly less abundant at sites and depths with Callinectes sapidus compared with areas lacking Callinectes sapidus. Moreover, no Carcinus maenas were found in Chesapeake Bay, where Callinectes sapidus were most abundant. Predation of tethered Carcinus maenas increased with Callinectes sapidus abundance. In laboratory and field experiments, Callinectes sapidus preyed readily on Carcinus maenas. Thus, we conclude the predation by Callinectes sapidus, alone or in combination with other factors, limits the abundance and geographic range of an invasive marine species. Title: Biotic Resistance to Invasion: Native Predator Limits Abundance and Distribution of an Introduced Crab Author: de Rivera, Catherine E., Ruiz, Greg M., Hines, Anson, Jivoff, Paul Year: 2005 Introduced species frequently escape the natural enemies (predators, competitors, and parasites) that limit their distribution and abundance in the native range. This reduction in native predators, competitors, and parasites may result in ecological release in the introduced range. However, biological interactions also can limit the establishment and spread of nonnative populations. The extent to which such biotic resistance occurs is poorly resolved, especially for marine ecosystems. Here we test whether a native predator, the blue crab Callinectes sapidus, affects the abundance and geographic range of the introduced European green crab Carcinus maenas in eastern North America. Both crab species occur in shallow, soft-sediment habitats of bays and estuaries, and their ranges overlap in eastern North America. First, we tested for a negative relationship in the abundances of the two species from trap samples across a 640-km (5.78° latitude) coastal transect. Second, we estimated variation in predation pressure on tethered Carcinus maenas across latitude and as a function of Callinectes sapidus abundance. Third, we measured predation rates on Carcinus maenas by Callinectes sapidus in field and laboratory experiments. Our results support the hypothesis that the native predator Callinectes sapidus provides biotic resistance to invasion and prevents the southward spread and establishment of Carcinus maenas. Within and across bays, Carcinus maenas were significantly less abundant at sites and depths with Callinectes sapidus compared with areas lacking Callinectes sapidus. Moreover, no Carcinus maenas were found in Chesapeake Bay, where Callinectes sapidus were most abundant. Predation of tethered Carcinus maenas increased with Callinectes sapidus abundance. In laboratory and field experiments, Callinectes sapidus preyed readily on Carcinus maenas. Thus, we conclude the predation by Callinectes sapidus, alone or in combination with other factors, limits the abundance and geographic range of an invasive marine species. Close