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• 1. [Article] Effects of Tide Gate Replacement on Water Temperature ina Freshwater Slough in the Columbia River Estuary

  Dramatic declines in salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest have brought new attention to the importance of estuarine rearing habitats. Levees and tide gates used to convert estuarine wetlands into ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Effects of Tide Gate Replacement on Water Temperature ina Freshwater Slough in the Columbia River Estuary Author: Ennis, Sara Year: 2009 Dramatic declines in salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest have brought new attention to the importance of estuarine rearing habitats. Levees and tide gates used to convert estuarine wetlands into farmland have reduced available habitat by more than half of historical levels. Recent efforts to restore estuarine habitats include tide gate replacement, though this method has been poorly studied. As a key indicator of salmon habitat suitability, temperature was used to evaluate the effects of tide gate replacement in a tidally influenced freshwater slough in the Lower Columbia River estuary. Three tide gates in the largest slough on Tenasillahe Island were replaced in 2007 with side-hinged aluminum gates. As managed during the data collection periods, the new tide gates did not allow tidal inflow into the slough. The study employed a Before-After, Control-Impact (BACI) approach, collecting data seasonally two years before and after replacement at the impact site and at the control site, a relatively unaltered slough on nearby Welch Island. Randomized Intervention Analysis and Monte Carlo tests revealed no significant difference in slough water temperatures after tide gate replacement, although minimum temperatures dropped up and downstream of the tide gates. Although the new tide gates did not have a significant effect on water temperature, the lower minimum temperatures may have been caused by a slight increase in tidal circulation. This result suggests that slough temperatures would decrease if the tide gates were managed to increase tidal inflow, and thus improve the quality of salmon rearing habitat. Title: Effects of Tide Gate Replacement on Water Temperature ina Freshwater Slough in the Columbia River Estuary Author: Ennis, Sara Year: 2009 Dramatic declines in salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest have brought new attention to the importance of estuarine rearing habitats. Levees and tide gates used to convert estuarine wetlands into farmland have reduced available habitat by more than half of historical levels. Recent efforts to restore estuarine habitats include tide gate replacement, though this method has been poorly studied. As a key indicator of salmon habitat suitability, temperature was used to evaluate the effects of tide gate replacement in a tidally influenced freshwater slough in the Lower Columbia River estuary. Three tide gates in the largest slough on Tenasillahe Island were replaced in 2007 with side-hinged aluminum gates. As managed during the data collection periods, the new tide gates did not allow tidal inflow into the slough. The study employed a Before-After, Control-Impact (BACI) approach, collecting data seasonally two years before and after replacement at the impact site and at the control site, a relatively unaltered slough on nearby Welch Island. Randomized Intervention Analysis and Monte Carlo tests revealed no significant difference in slough water temperatures after tide gate replacement, although minimum temperatures dropped up and downstream of the tide gates. Although the new tide gates did not have a significant effect on water temperature, the lower minimum temperatures may have been caused by a slight increase in tidal circulation. This result suggests that slough temperatures would decrease if the tide gates were managed to increase tidal inflow, and thus improve the quality of salmon rearing habitat. Close

• 2. [Article] Mechanisms of Methane Transport Through Trees

  Although the dynamics of methane (CH4) emission from croplands and wetlands have been fairly well investigated, the contribution of trees to global methane emission and the mechanisms of tree transport ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Mechanisms of Methane Transport Through Trees Author: Kutschera, Ellynne Marie Year: 2013 Although the dynamics of methane (CH4) emission from croplands and wetlands have been fairly well investigated, the contribution of trees to global methane emission and the mechanisms of tree transport are relatively unknown. Methane emissions from the common wetland tree species Populus trichocarpa (black cottonwood) native to the Pacific Northwest were measured under hydroponic conditions in order to separate plant transport mechanisms from the influence of soil processes. Roots were exposed to methane enriched water and canopy emissions of methane were measured using a canopy enclosure. Methane accumulation in the canopy was generally linear and the average canopy methane flux was 3.0 ± 2.6 μg CH4 min-1. Flux magnitudes from stem experiments scaled to the area of the main tree stem are comparable to whole-canopy flux values, indicating that the majority of methane emitted from the tree leaves through the stem. Samples for stable carbon isotope composition were taken during the canopy experiments. Compared to the isotopic composition of root water methane, canopy methane was depleted in 13C on average by 8.6 ± 3.3 permil; this indicates that methane moving through the tree is not following a purely bulk flow pathway (where no depletion would occur), but is instead subject to at least one fractionating mechanism. When temperature was varied, the flux at the coolest temperature was significantly different from the higher flux at the warmest temperature (p-value less than 0.02). The calculated Q10 for methane flux was 2.4, which indicates a positive feedback with temperature increase. Analysis of δ13C values of emitted CH4 in the temperature experiments shows increasing depletion with cooler temperatures and lower flux. This indicates that not only does the magnitude of flux vary with temperature, but the actual dominant transport mechanism changes as well. Title: Mechanisms of Methane Transport Through Trees Author: Kutschera, Ellynne Marie Year: 2013 Although the dynamics of methane (CH4) emission from croplands and wetlands have been fairly well investigated, the contribution of trees to global methane emission and the mechanisms of tree transport are relatively unknown. Methane emissions from the common wetland tree species Populus trichocarpa (black cottonwood) native to the Pacific Northwest were measured under hydroponic conditions in order to separate plant transport mechanisms from the influence of soil processes. Roots were exposed to methane enriched water and canopy emissions of methane were measured using a canopy enclosure. Methane accumulation in the canopy was generally linear and the average canopy methane flux was 3.0 ± 2.6 μg CH4 min-1. Flux magnitudes from stem experiments scaled to the area of the main tree stem are comparable to whole-canopy flux values, indicating that the majority of methane emitted from the tree leaves through the stem. Samples for stable carbon isotope composition were taken during the canopy experiments. Compared to the isotopic composition of root water methane, canopy methane was depleted in 13C on average by 8.6 ± 3.3 permil; this indicates that methane moving through the tree is not following a purely bulk flow pathway (where no depletion would occur), but is instead subject to at least one fractionating mechanism. When temperature was varied, the flux at the coolest temperature was significantly different from the higher flux at the warmest temperature (p-value less than 0.02). The calculated Q10 for methane flux was 2.4, which indicates a positive feedback with temperature increase. Analysis of δ13C values of emitted CH4 in the temperature experiments shows increasing depletion with cooler temperatures and lower flux. This indicates that not only does the magnitude of flux vary with temperature, but the actual dominant transport mechanism changes as well. Close

• 3. [Article] Carbon Dynamics in the Future Forest: the Importance of Long-Term Successional Legacy and Climate–Fire Interactions

  Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long-term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Carbon Dynamics in the Future Forest: the Importance of Long-Term Successional Legacy and Climate–Fire Interactions Author: Loudermilk, E. Louise, Scheller, Robert M., Weisberg, Peter J., Yang, Jian, Dilts, Thomas E., Karam, Sarah L., Skinner, Carl Year: 2013 Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long-term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape-scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects of a changing climate (A2 and B1 IPCC emissions; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory General Circulation Models) on total forest C, tree species composition, and wildfire dynamics in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, and Nevada. The independent effects of temperature and precipitation were assessed within and among climate models. Results highlight the importance of modeling forest succession and stand development processes at the landscape scale for understanding the C cycle. Due primarily to landscape legacy effects of historic logging of the Comstock Era in the late 1880s, C sequestration may continue throughout the current century, and the forest will remain a C sink (Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance > 0), regardless of climate regime. Climate change caused increases in temperatures limited simulated C sequestration potential because of augmented fire activity and reduced establishment ability of subalpine and upper montane trees. Higher temperatures influenced forest response more than reduced precipitation. As the forest reached its potential steady state, the forest could become C neutral or a C source, and climate change could accelerate this transition. The future of forest ecosystem C cycling in many forested systems worldwide may depend more on major disturbances and landscape legacies related to land use than on projected climate change alone. Title: Carbon Dynamics in the Future Forest: the Importance of Long-Term Successional Legacy and Climate–Fire Interactions Author: Loudermilk, E. Louise, Scheller, Robert M., Weisberg, Peter J., Yang, Jian, Dilts, Thomas E., Karam, Sarah L., Skinner, Carl Year: 2013 Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long-term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape-scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects of a changing climate (A2 and B1 IPCC emissions; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory General Circulation Models) on total forest C, tree species composition, and wildfire dynamics in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, and Nevada. The independent effects of temperature and precipitation were assessed within and among climate models. Results highlight the importance of modeling forest succession and stand development processes at the landscape scale for understanding the C cycle. Due primarily to landscape legacy effects of historic logging of the Comstock Era in the late 1880s, C sequestration may continue throughout the current century, and the forest will remain a C sink (Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance > 0), regardless of climate regime. Climate change caused increases in temperatures limited simulated C sequestration potential because of augmented fire activity and reduced establishment ability of subalpine and upper montane trees. Higher temperatures influenced forest response more than reduced precipitation. As the forest reached its potential steady state, the forest could become C neutral or a C source, and climate change could accelerate this transition. The future of forest ecosystem C cycling in many forested systems worldwide may depend more on major disturbances and landscape legacies related to land use than on projected climate change alone. Close

• 4. [Article] Winter Climate Change Affects Growing-Season Soil Microbial Biomass and Activity in Northern Hardwood Forests

  Understanding the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global change remains a major challenge of ecological research. We exploited a natural elevation gradient in a northern hardwood forest to determine ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Winter Climate Change Affects Growing-Season Soil Microbial Biomass and Activity in Northern Hardwood Forests Author: Durán, Jorge, Morse, Jennifer L., Groffman, Peter M., Campbell, John L., Christenson, Lynn M., Driscoll, Charles T., Fahey, Timothy J., Fisk, Melany C., Mitchell, Mryon J., Templer, Pamela H. Year: 2014 Understanding the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global change remains a major challenge of ecological research. We exploited a natural elevation gradient in a northern hardwood forest to determine how reductions in snow accumulation, expected with climate change, directly affect dynamics of soil winter frost, and indirectly soil microbial biomass and activity during the growing season. Soils from lower elevation plots, which accumulated less snow and experienced more soil temperature variability during the winter (and likely more freeze/thaw events), had less extractable inorganic nitrogen (N), lower rates of microbial N production via potential net N mineralization and nitrification, and higher potential microbial respiration during the growing season. Potential nitrate production rates during the growing season were particularly sensitive to changes in winter snow pack accumulation and winter soil temperature variability, especially in spring. Effects of elevation and winter conditions on N transformation rates dif­ fered from those on potential microbial respiration, suggesting that N-related processes might respond differently to winter climate change in northern hardwood forests than C-related processes. Title: Winter Climate Change Affects Growing-Season Soil Microbial Biomass and Activity in Northern Hardwood Forests Author: Durán, Jorge, Morse, Jennifer L., Groffman, Peter M., Campbell, John L., Christenson, Lynn M., Driscoll, Charles T., Fahey, Timothy J., Fisk, Melany C., Mitchell, Mryon J., Templer, Pamela H. Year: 2014 Understanding the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to global change remains a major challenge of ecological research. We exploited a natural elevation gradient in a northern hardwood forest to determine how reductions in snow accumulation, expected with climate change, directly affect dynamics of soil winter frost, and indirectly soil microbial biomass and activity during the growing season. Soils from lower elevation plots, which accumulated less snow and experienced more soil temperature variability during the winter (and likely more freeze/thaw events), had less extractable inorganic nitrogen (N), lower rates of microbial N production via potential net N mineralization and nitrification, and higher potential microbial respiration during the growing season. Potential nitrate production rates during the growing season were particularly sensitive to changes in winter snow pack accumulation and winter soil temperature variability, especially in spring. Effects of elevation and winter conditions on N transformation rates dif­ fered from those on potential microbial respiration, suggesting that N-related processes might respond differently to winter climate change in northern hardwood forests than C-related processes. Close

• 5. [Article] A Comparative Assessment of Projected Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts: Elucidating the Role of Temperature

  The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Comparative Assessment of Projected Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts: Elucidating the Role of Temperature Author: Ahmadalipour, Ali, Moradkhani, Hamid, Demirel, Mehmet C. Year: 2017 The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970–1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010–2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty. Title: A Comparative Assessment of Projected Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts: Elucidating the Role of Temperature Author: Ahmadalipour, Ali, Moradkhani, Hamid, Demirel, Mehmet C. Year: 2017 The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970–1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010–2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty. Close

• 6. [Article] Urbanization and its Relationship to Water Quality within the Bronson Creek Watershed

  Urbanization and its Relationship to Water Quality within the Bronson Creek Watershed A watershed analysis project was undertaken to investigate the impact of urbanization on the water quality with Bronson ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Urbanization and its Relationship to Water Quality within the Bronson Creek Watershed Author: Creech, Jason Cristopher Year: 2003 Urbanization and its Relationship to Water Quality within the Bronson Creek Watershed A watershed analysis project was undertaken to investigate the impact of urbanization on the water quality with Bronson Creek; a small urban stream in the metropolitan area of Portland, Oregon. Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) have been established for several water quality parameters within the watershed. Water quality data were collected at nine sampling along Bronson Creek by Clean Water Services, a local public utility charged with storm water management and water quality protection duties. Only seven water quality parameters were included in the analysis; they were 1) temperature, 2) total phosphorous, 3) ortho-phosphate, 4) ammonia, 5) total nitrogen, 6) total suspended solids, and 7) E. Coli. Samples were taken approximately twice a month over a 7 year period from 1994 – 2001. Total impervious area (TIA) was used as the indicator of urbanization for the project. Impervious area values (TIA%) were calculated by digitizing aerial photography. Yearly TIA values were calculated for the entire watershed, as well as for its 37 subasins (subcatchement level). Water quality data were analyzed for variations along the stream and for the presence of trends (monotonic changes over time) during seasons of poor water quality. Kendall’s t was also used as the trend test statistic. Data were also analyzed to determine if an association exists between water quality at a sampling site and the upstream imperviousness (TIA%). Kendall’s t was used as the test statistic. Negative trends (improving water quality) were found throughout the watershed with nitrogen exhibiting the largest reduction. Temperature was the only parameter not to exhibit a negative trend at any location within the watershed. Results of the correlation between water quality and TIA% showed similar results, where a parameter experiencing a trend also exhibited a significant Kendall’s correlation with upstream TIA%. As TIA increased, water quality improved at least one site, for all parameters except temperature. One possible cause of the improving water quality within Bronson Creek is the implementation of best management practices within the watershed. Stormwater ponds were located in subcatchments that were adjacent to water quality sampling sites with improving water quality. The Bronson Creek watershed is also part of a pilot program to test the effectiveness of best management practices on improving water quality in the urban environment. Title: Urbanization and its Relationship to Water Quality within the Bronson Creek Watershed Author: Creech, Jason Cristopher Year: 2003 Urbanization and its Relationship to Water Quality within the Bronson Creek Watershed A watershed analysis project was undertaken to investigate the impact of urbanization on the water quality with Bronson Creek; a small urban stream in the metropolitan area of Portland, Oregon. Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) have been established for several water quality parameters within the watershed. Water quality data were collected at nine sampling along Bronson Creek by Clean Water Services, a local public utility charged with storm water management and water quality protection duties. Only seven water quality parameters were included in the analysis; they were 1) temperature, 2) total phosphorous, 3) ortho-phosphate, 4) ammonia, 5) total nitrogen, 6) total suspended solids, and 7) E. Coli. Samples were taken approximately twice a month over a 7 year period from 1994 – 2001. Total impervious area (TIA) was used as the indicator of urbanization for the project. Impervious area values (TIA%) were calculated by digitizing aerial photography. Yearly TIA values were calculated for the entire watershed, as well as for its 37 subasins (subcatchement level). Water quality data were analyzed for variations along the stream and for the presence of trends (monotonic changes over time) during seasons of poor water quality. Kendall’s t was also used as the trend test statistic. Data were also analyzed to determine if an association exists between water quality at a sampling site and the upstream imperviousness (TIA%). Kendall’s t was used as the test statistic. Negative trends (improving water quality) were found throughout the watershed with nitrogen exhibiting the largest reduction. Temperature was the only parameter not to exhibit a negative trend at any location within the watershed. Results of the correlation between water quality and TIA% showed similar results, where a parameter experiencing a trend also exhibited a significant Kendall’s correlation with upstream TIA%. As TIA increased, water quality improved at least one site, for all parameters except temperature. One possible cause of the improving water quality within Bronson Creek is the implementation of best management practices within the watershed. Stormwater ponds were located in subcatchments that were adjacent to water quality sampling sites with improving water quality. The Bronson Creek watershed is also part of a pilot program to test the effectiveness of best management practices on improving water quality in the urban environment. Close

• 7. [Article] Accelerated Thermokarst Formation in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

  Thermokarst is a land surface lowered and disrupted by melting ground ice. Thermokarst is a major driver of landscape change in the Arctic, but has been considered to be a minor process in Antarctica. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Accelerated Thermokarst Formation in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica Author: Levy, Joseph S., Fountain, Andrew G., Dickson, James L., Head, James W., Okal, Marianne, Marchant, David R., Watters, Jaclyn Year: 2013 Thermokarst is a land surface lowered and disrupted by melting ground ice. Thermokarst is a major driver of landscape change in the Arctic, but has been considered to be a minor process in Antarctica. Here, we use ground-based and airborne LiDAR coupled with timelapse imaging and meteorological data to show that 1) thermokarst formation has accelerated in Garwood Valley, Antarctica; 2) the rate of thermokarst erosion is presently,10 times the average Holocene rate; and 3) the increased rate of thermokarst formation is driven most strongly by increasing insolation and sediment/albedo feedbacks. This suggests that sediment enhancement of insolation-driven melting may act similarly to expected increases in Antarctic air temperature (presently occurring along the Antarctic Peninsula), and may serve as a leading indicator of imminent landscape change in Antarctica that will generate thermokarst landforms similar to those in Arctic periglacial terrains. Title: Accelerated Thermokarst Formation in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica Author: Levy, Joseph S., Fountain, Andrew G., Dickson, James L., Head, James W., Okal, Marianne, Marchant, David R., Watters, Jaclyn Year: 2013 Thermokarst is a land surface lowered and disrupted by melting ground ice. Thermokarst is a major driver of landscape change in the Arctic, but has been considered to be a minor process in Antarctica. Here, we use ground-based and airborne LiDAR coupled with timelapse imaging and meteorological data to show that 1) thermokarst formation has accelerated in Garwood Valley, Antarctica; 2) the rate of thermokarst erosion is presently,10 times the average Holocene rate; and 3) the increased rate of thermokarst formation is driven most strongly by increasing insolation and sediment/albedo feedbacks. This suggests that sediment enhancement of insolation-driven melting may act similarly to expected increases in Antarctic air temperature (presently occurring along the Antarctic Peninsula), and may serve as a leading indicator of imminent landscape change in Antarctica that will generate thermokarst landforms similar to those in Arctic periglacial terrains. Close

• 8. [Article] Initial evaluations of a U.S. Navy Rapidly Relocatable Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Ocean Forecast System in the Context of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Disaster

  In response to the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Initial evaluations of a U.S. Navy Rapidly Relocatable Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Ocean Forecast System in the Context of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Disaster Author: Zaron, Edward D., Fitzpatrick, Patrick J., Cross, Scott L., Harding, John M., Bub, Frank L., Wiggert, Jerry D., Ko, Dong S., Lau, Yee, Woodward, Katharine, Mooers, Christopher N.K. Year: 2015 In response to the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated Americas Seas, or AMSEAS, which is documented in this manuscript. The DwH disaster provided a challenge to the application of available ocean-forecast capabilities, and also generated a historically large observational dataset. AMSEAS was evaluated by four complementary efforts, each with somewhat different aims and approaches: a university research consortium within an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) testbed; a petroleum industry consortium, the Gulf of Mexico 3-D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Prediction Project (GOMEX-PPP); a British Petroleum (BP) funded project at the Northern Gulf Institute in response to the oil spill; and the Navy itself. Validation metrics are presented in these different projects for water temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface wind, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and volume transport, for different forecast time scales. The validation found certain geographic and time biases/errors, and small but systematic improvements relative to earlier regional and global modeling efforts. On the basis of these positive AMSEAS validation studies, an oil spill transport simulation was conducted using archived AMSEAS nowcasts to examine transport into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This effort captured the influences of Hurricane Alex and a non-tropical cyclone off the Louisiana coast, both of which pushed oil into the western Mississippi Sound, illustrating the importance of the atmospheric influence on oil spills such as DwH. Title: Initial evaluations of a U.S. Navy Rapidly Relocatable Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Ocean Forecast System in the Context of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Disaster Author: Zaron, Edward D., Fitzpatrick, Patrick J., Cross, Scott L., Harding, John M., Bub, Frank L., Wiggert, Jerry D., Ko, Dong S., Lau, Yee, Woodward, Katharine, Mooers, Christopher N.K. Year: 2015 In response to the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated Americas Seas, or AMSEAS, which is documented in this manuscript. The DwH disaster provided a challenge to the application of available ocean-forecast capabilities, and also generated a historically large observational dataset. AMSEAS was evaluated by four complementary efforts, each with somewhat different aims and approaches: a university research consortium within an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) testbed; a petroleum industry consortium, the Gulf of Mexico 3-D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Prediction Project (GOMEX-PPP); a British Petroleum (BP) funded project at the Northern Gulf Institute in response to the oil spill; and the Navy itself. Validation metrics are presented in these different projects for water temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface wind, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and volume transport, for different forecast time scales. The validation found certain geographic and time biases/errors, and small but systematic improvements relative to earlier regional and global modeling efforts. On the basis of these positive AMSEAS validation studies, an oil spill transport simulation was conducted using archived AMSEAS nowcasts to examine transport into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This effort captured the influences of Hurricane Alex and a non-tropical cyclone off the Louisiana coast, both of which pushed oil into the western Mississippi Sound, illustrating the importance of the atmospheric influence on oil spills such as DwH. Close

• 9. [Article] Trajectory Analysis of Black Carbon in the Arctic Region

  Black carbon (BC) is a troubling particulate. Commonly known as soot, BC forms through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass. It has a very low albedo compared to natural particulates ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Trajectory Analysis of Black Carbon in the Arctic Region Author: Gottschalk, Kimberly Year: 2016 Black carbon (BC) is a troubling particulate. Commonly known as soot, BC forms through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass. It has a very low albedo compared to natural particulates making it a very efficient absorber of solar radiation. As BC is deposited on snow and ice, albedo is decreased - enhancing solar heating and increasing meltwater production. With rising air temperatures, melting rates of polar ice are increasing and are being enhanced by BC, leading to accelerated global sea level rise. This study aimed to document sources and deposition areas of BC in the Arctic. Utilizing HySplit, an air trajectory model, patterns of BC trajectories are assessed. Spatial patterns of deposition are estimated from known sources and source regions predicted from known deposition locations through the use of backward trajectory. Atmospheric circulation transports BC from temperate regions into the Arctic. The strength and location of the polar front in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation is a dominant controlling factor. Preliminary results show reoccurring potential sources located in the Northeastern United States, Nova Scotia, Northern United Kingdom, and the Scandinavian Peninsula with large deposition events occurring within the first six months of the year. Title: Trajectory Analysis of Black Carbon in the Arctic Region Author: Gottschalk, Kimberly Year: 2016 Black carbon (BC) is a troubling particulate. Commonly known as soot, BC forms through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass. It has a very low albedo compared to natural particulates making it a very efficient absorber of solar radiation. As BC is deposited on snow and ice, albedo is decreased - enhancing solar heating and increasing meltwater production. With rising air temperatures, melting rates of polar ice are increasing and are being enhanced by BC, leading to accelerated global sea level rise. This study aimed to document sources and deposition areas of BC in the Arctic. Utilizing HySplit, an air trajectory model, patterns of BC trajectories are assessed. Spatial patterns of deposition are estimated from known sources and source regions predicted from known deposition locations through the use of backward trajectory. Atmospheric circulation transports BC from temperate regions into the Arctic. The strength and location of the polar front in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation is a dominant controlling factor. Preliminary results show reoccurring potential sources located in the Northeastern United States, Nova Scotia, Northern United Kingdom, and the Scandinavian Peninsula with large deposition events occurring within the first six months of the year. Close

• 10. [Article] Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

  Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John Year: 2014 Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Title: Impacts of Fire and Climate Change on Long-Term Nitrogen Availability and Forest Productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens Author: Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Kretchun, Alec M., Clark, Kenneth L., Hom, John Year: 2014 Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had little effect on mineral N, whereas climate change and fire together reduced mineral N by the end of the century. Though N initially limited forest productivity, mineral N was no longer limiting after 50 years. Our results suggest that mineral N is resilient to fire under our current climate but not under climate change. Also, predictions that do not consider N limitation may underestimate short-term but not long-term productivity responses to climate change. Together these results illustrate the importance of including N dynamics when simulating the effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly in fire-prone regions such as the New Jersey Pine Barrens. Close