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• 1. [Article] Ten Principles for Managing Fisheries to Facilitate Adaptation to Uncertain Effects of Climate Change

  Climate change may cause significant changes in the distribution, abundance, and species mix of commercial fishery resources. In any given area stocks of some species may decline; stocks of other species ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Ten Principles for Managing Fisheries to Facilitate Adaptation to Uncertain Effects of Climate Change Author: Knapp, Gunnar Climate change may cause significant changes in the distribution, abundance, and species mix of commercial fishery resources. In any given area stocks of some species may decline; stocks of other species may increase; and new species may appear in commercially significant volumes. However, it is difficult to predict what specific changes may occur or when they will occur. This paper suggests ten principles for managing fisheries in ways that facilitate adaptation to uncertain future effects of climate change. These are (1) Expect change; (2) Conduct research; (3) Disseminate research results; (4) Give managers flexibility; (5) Allow for change in allocation agreements; (6) Reconsider restrictions on mobility of fishermen and processors; (7) Consider defining long-term access privileges more broadly; (8) Consider alternative rights-based systems which may facilitate adjustment to change; (9) Create mechanisms for managing new fisheries; and (10) Plan responses to resource decline. Title: Ten Principles for Managing Fisheries to Facilitate Adaptation to Uncertain Effects of Climate Change Author: Knapp, Gunnar Climate change may cause significant changes in the distribution, abundance, and species mix of commercial fishery resources. In any given area stocks of some species may decline; stocks of other species may increase; and new species may appear in commercially significant volumes. However, it is difficult to predict what specific changes may occur or when they will occur. This paper suggests ten principles for managing fisheries in ways that facilitate adaptation to uncertain future effects of climate change. These are (1) Expect change; (2) Conduct research; (3) Disseminate research results; (4) Give managers flexibility; (5) Allow for change in allocation agreements; (6) Reconsider restrictions on mobility of fishermen and processors; (7) Consider defining long-term access privileges more broadly; (8) Consider alternative rights-based systems which may facilitate adjustment to change; (9) Create mechanisms for managing new fisheries; and (10) Plan responses to resource decline. Close

• 2. [Article] Bridging environmental physiology and community ecology : temperature effects at the community level

  Most climate change predictions focus on the response of individual species to changing local conditions and ignore species interactions, largely due to the lack of a sound theoretical foundation for how ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Bridging environmental physiology and community ecology : temperature effects at the community level Author: Iles, Alison C. Most climate change predictions focus on the response of individual species to changing local conditions and ignore species interactions, largely due to the lack of a sound theoretical foundation for how interactions are expected to change with climate and how to incorporate them into climate change models. Much of the variability in species interaction strengths may be governed by fundamental constraints on physiological rates, possibly providing a framework for including species interactions into climate change models. Metabolic rates, ingestion rates and many other physiological rates are relatively predictable from body size and body temperature due to constraints imposed by the physical and chemical laws that govern fluid dynamics and the kinetics of biochemical reaction times. My dissertation assesses the usefulness of this framework by exploring the community-level consequences of physiological constraints. In Chapter 2, I incorporated temperature and body size scaling into the biological rate parameters of a series of realistically structured trophic network models. The relative magnitude of the temperature scaling parameters affecting consumer energetic costs (metabolic rates) and energetic gains (ingestion rates) determined how consumer energetic efficiency changed with temperature. I systematically changed consumer energetic efficiency and examined the sensitivity of network stability and species persistence to various temperatures. I found that a species' probability of extinction depended primarily on the effects of organismal physiology (body size and energetic efficiency with respect to temperature) and secondarily on the effects of local food web structure (trophic level and consumer generality). This suggests that physiology is highly influential on the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. If consumer energetic efficiency declined as temperature increased, that is, species did best at lower temperatures, then the simulated networks had greater stability at lower temperatures. The opposite scenario resulted in greater stability at higher temperatures. Thus, much of the community-level response depends on what species energetic efficiencies at the organismal-level really are, which formed the research question for Chapter 3: How does consumer energetic efficiency change with temperature? Existing evidence is scarce but suggestive of decreasing consumer energetic efficiency with increasing temperature. I tested this hypothesis on seven rocky intertidal invertebrate species by measuring the relative temperature scaling of their metabolic and ingestion rates as well as consumer interaction strength under lab conditions. Energetic efficiencies of these rocky intertidal invertebrates declined and species interaction strengths tended to increase with temperature. Thus, in the rocky intertidal, the mechanistic effect of temperature would be to lower community stability at higher temperatures. Chapter 4 tests if the mechanistic effects of temperature on ingestion rates and species interaction strengths seen in the lab are apparent under field conditions. Bruce Menge and I related bio-mimetic estimates of body temperatures to estimates of per capita mussel ingestion rates and species interaction strengths by the ochre sea star Pisaster ochraceus, a keystone predator of the rocky intertidal. We found a strong, positive effect of body temperature on both per capita ingestion rates and interaction strengths. However, the effects of season and the unique way in which P. ochraceus regulates body temperatures were also apparent, leaving room for adaptation and acclimation to partially compensate for the mechanistic constraint of body temperature. Community structure of the rocky intertidal is associated with environmental forcing due to upwelling, which delivers cold, nutrient rich water to the nearshore environment. As upwelling is driven by large-scale atmospheric pressure gradients, climate change has the potential to affect a wide range of significant ecological processes through changes in water temperature. In Chapter 5, my coauthors and I identified long-term trends in the phenology of upwelling events that are consistent with climate change predictions: upwelling events are becoming stronger and longer. As expected, longer upwelling events were related to lower average water temperatures in the rocky intertidal. Furthermore, recruitment rates of barnacles and mussels were associated with the phenology of upwelling events. Thus climate change is altering the mode and the tempo of environmental forcing in nearshore ecosystems, with ramifications for community structure and function. Ongoing, long-term changes in environmental forcing in rocky intertidal ecosystems provide an opportunity to understand how temperature shapes community structure and the ramifications of climate change. My dissertation research demonstrates that the effect of temperature on organismal performance is an important force structuring ecological communities and has potential as a tractable framework for predicting the community level effects of climate change. Title: Bridging environmental physiology and community ecology : temperature effects at the community level Author: Iles, Alison C. Most climate change predictions focus on the response of individual species to changing local conditions and ignore species interactions, largely due to the lack of a sound theoretical foundation for how interactions are expected to change with climate and how to incorporate them into climate change models. Much of the variability in species interaction strengths may be governed by fundamental constraints on physiological rates, possibly providing a framework for including species interactions into climate change models. Metabolic rates, ingestion rates and many other physiological rates are relatively predictable from body size and body temperature due to constraints imposed by the physical and chemical laws that govern fluid dynamics and the kinetics of biochemical reaction times. My dissertation assesses the usefulness of this framework by exploring the community-level consequences of physiological constraints. In Chapter 2, I incorporated temperature and body size scaling into the biological rate parameters of a series of realistically structured trophic network models. The relative magnitude of the temperature scaling parameters affecting consumer energetic costs (metabolic rates) and energetic gains (ingestion rates) determined how consumer energetic efficiency changed with temperature. I systematically changed consumer energetic efficiency and examined the sensitivity of network stability and species persistence to various temperatures. I found that a species' probability of extinction depended primarily on the effects of organismal physiology (body size and energetic efficiency with respect to temperature) and secondarily on the effects of local food web structure (trophic level and consumer generality). This suggests that physiology is highly influential on the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. If consumer energetic efficiency declined as temperature increased, that is, species did best at lower temperatures, then the simulated networks had greater stability at lower temperatures. The opposite scenario resulted in greater stability at higher temperatures. Thus, much of the community-level response depends on what species energetic efficiencies at the organismal-level really are, which formed the research question for Chapter 3: How does consumer energetic efficiency change with temperature? Existing evidence is scarce but suggestive of decreasing consumer energetic efficiency with increasing temperature. I tested this hypothesis on seven rocky intertidal invertebrate species by measuring the relative temperature scaling of their metabolic and ingestion rates as well as consumer interaction strength under lab conditions. Energetic efficiencies of these rocky intertidal invertebrates declined and species interaction strengths tended to increase with temperature. Thus, in the rocky intertidal, the mechanistic effect of temperature would be to lower community stability at higher temperatures. Chapter 4 tests if the mechanistic effects of temperature on ingestion rates and species interaction strengths seen in the lab are apparent under field conditions. Bruce Menge and I related bio-mimetic estimates of body temperatures to estimates of per capita mussel ingestion rates and species interaction strengths by the ochre sea star Pisaster ochraceus, a keystone predator of the rocky intertidal. We found a strong, positive effect of body temperature on both per capita ingestion rates and interaction strengths. However, the effects of season and the unique way in which P. ochraceus regulates body temperatures were also apparent, leaving room for adaptation and acclimation to partially compensate for the mechanistic constraint of body temperature. Community structure of the rocky intertidal is associated with environmental forcing due to upwelling, which delivers cold, nutrient rich water to the nearshore environment. As upwelling is driven by large-scale atmospheric pressure gradients, climate change has the potential to affect a wide range of significant ecological processes through changes in water temperature. In Chapter 5, my coauthors and I identified long-term trends in the phenology of upwelling events that are consistent with climate change predictions: upwelling events are becoming stronger and longer. As expected, longer upwelling events were related to lower average water temperatures in the rocky intertidal. Furthermore, recruitment rates of barnacles and mussels were associated with the phenology of upwelling events. Thus climate change is altering the mode and the tempo of environmental forcing in nearshore ecosystems, with ramifications for community structure and function. Ongoing, long-term changes in environmental forcing in rocky intertidal ecosystems provide an opportunity to understand how temperature shapes community structure and the ramifications of climate change. My dissertation research demonstrates that the effect of temperature on organismal performance is an important force structuring ecological communities and has potential as a tractable framework for predicting the community level effects of climate change. Close

• 3. [Article] Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity

  Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Title: Climate-Suitable Planting as a Strategy for Maintaining Forest Productivity and Functional Diversity Author: Duveneck, Matthew Joshua, Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-asusual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass). Close

• 4. [Article] Experimental Evidence for Evolved Tolerance to Avian Malaria in a Wild Population of Low Elevation Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi (Hemignathus virens)

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the International ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Experimental Evidence for Evolved Tolerance to Avian Malaria in a Wild Population of Low Elevation Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi (Hemignathus virens) Author: Saili, Katerine S., Jarvi, Susan I., Atkinson, Carter T., Utzurrum, Ruth B. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the International Association for Ecology and Health and published by Springer. It can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/10393. Title: Experimental Evidence for Evolved Tolerance to Avian Malaria in a Wild Population of Low Elevation Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi (Hemignathus virens) Author: Saili, Katerine S., Jarvi, Susan I., Atkinson, Carter T., Utzurrum, Ruth B. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the International Association for Ecology and Health and published by Springer. It can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/10393. Close

• 5. [Article] Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Modeling in the Marine Environment : Humpback Whale Genetic Variability and Seabird Distributions in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean

  The rapid decline of marine ecosystems worldwide and the failure of traditional single species management pushed for the development of ecosystem-based conservation measures such as marine protected areas ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Modeling in the Marine Environment : Humpback Whale Genetic Variability and Seabird Distributions in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean Author: Dick, Dorothy Marie The rapid decline of marine ecosystems worldwide and the failure of traditional single species management pushed for the development of ecosystem-based conservation measures such as marine protected areas (MPA) to slow the loss of marine biodiversity. One approach to MPA creation advocates targeting marine megafauna (e.g., marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, etc.) and assumes protective measures for megafauna will extend safeguards to areas of ocean productivity and other species dependent on that productivity. The marine spatial planning (MSP) process requires spatially-explicit information resulting in the development of map products used in planning and decision making. The crux of map creation is georeferenced species occurrence data. This three-part study takes a multidisciplinary approach, combining geography, marine conservation, molecular ecology, and spatial ecology to explore species occurrence data and development of novel geoanalytical tools, spatial analyses, and predictive modeling to inform the MSP process and help design more effective MPA networks for North Pacific marine megafauna (humpback whales and seabirds). Chapter 2 includes the development of geneGIS, a customized Arc Marine data model and suite of computational GIS tools to explore, analyze, and visualize spatially-explicit, individual-based records from North Pacific humpback whale photo-identification and genetic data. Unlike most occurrence data, this presence-only dataset is enriched by the addition of genetic information enabling mangers to factor in population structure and genetic diversity, and thus maximize species resilience, when designing MPAs. Chapters 3 and 4 focus on using presence-absence data to develop spatially-explicit ecological models to identify multispecies seabird foraging aggregations (hotspots) and assess how these locations may shift with climate change within the California Current System. Key to both components is an improved understanding of what factors influence the presence of a species and/or its genetic variability to enable present day planning and design of MPA networks to ensure adequate protection will be in place now and as climate change progresses. This information can also be used to inform policy decisions by adapting strategies to reduce non-climate stressors such as fishery pressures and coastal development in areas predicted to be important to marine species in the future. Title: Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Modeling in the Marine Environment : Humpback Whale Genetic Variability and Seabird Distributions in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean Author: Dick, Dorothy Marie The rapid decline of marine ecosystems worldwide and the failure of traditional single species management pushed for the development of ecosystem-based conservation measures such as marine protected areas (MPA) to slow the loss of marine biodiversity. One approach to MPA creation advocates targeting marine megafauna (e.g., marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, etc.) and assumes protective measures for megafauna will extend safeguards to areas of ocean productivity and other species dependent on that productivity. The marine spatial planning (MSP) process requires spatially-explicit information resulting in the development of map products used in planning and decision making. The crux of map creation is georeferenced species occurrence data. This three-part study takes a multidisciplinary approach, combining geography, marine conservation, molecular ecology, and spatial ecology to explore species occurrence data and development of novel geoanalytical tools, spatial analyses, and predictive modeling to inform the MSP process and help design more effective MPA networks for North Pacific marine megafauna (humpback whales and seabirds). Chapter 2 includes the development of geneGIS, a customized Arc Marine data model and suite of computational GIS tools to explore, analyze, and visualize spatially-explicit, individual-based records from North Pacific humpback whale photo-identification and genetic data. Unlike most occurrence data, this presence-only dataset is enriched by the addition of genetic information enabling mangers to factor in population structure and genetic diversity, and thus maximize species resilience, when designing MPAs. Chapters 3 and 4 focus on using presence-absence data to develop spatially-explicit ecological models to identify multispecies seabird foraging aggregations (hotspots) and assess how these locations may shift with climate change within the California Current System. Key to both components is an improved understanding of what factors influence the presence of a species and/or its genetic variability to enable present day planning and design of MPA networks to ensure adequate protection will be in place now and as climate change progresses. This information can also be used to inform policy decisions by adapting strategies to reduce non-climate stressors such as fishery pressures and coastal development in areas predicted to be important to marine species in the future. Close

• 6. [Article] Ectomycorrhizal communities of ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine in the south-central Oregon pumice zone

  To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Ectomycorrhizal communities of ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine in the south-central Oregon pumice zone Author: Luoma, Daniel L., Garcia, Maria O., Jones, Melanie D., Smith, Jane E. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/572 Title: Ectomycorrhizal communities of ponderosa pine and lodgepole pine in the south-central Oregon pumice zone Author: Luoma, Daniel L., Garcia, Maria O., Jones, Melanie D., Smith, Jane E. To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Springer and can be found at: http://link.springer.com/journal/572 Close

• 7. [Article] Using local climate to explain temporal variation in rare plant populations

  Increased temperatures due to anthropogenic-induced climate change may raise the threat of extinction for taxa with sessile life histories (e.g., plants) in the near future. Linking climate change models ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Using local climate to explain temporal variation in rare plant populations Author: Pfingsten, Ian A. Increased temperatures due to anthropogenic-induced climate change may raise the threat of extinction for taxa with sessile life histories (e.g., plants) in the near future. Linking climate change models to demographic models may provide useful insights into the potential effects of environmental changes on rare plants, and therefore aid in their current and future conservation. Population demographers generally agree that mechanistic models from a reductionist perspective are necessary to test assumptions in population drivers. For the first study, I assessed the climate vulnerability of a rare plant species, Pyrrocoma radiata, with a mechanistic model of four climatically-similar populations. I used environmentally-driven demographic models to estimate vital rates and population sizes from a nonlinear, nonparametric regression with local climate variables. I assessed the utility of this environmentally-correlated, stage-structured population matrix model compared to a stationary model of independent and identically-distributed environmental stochasticity. I then simulated future population projections based on climate conditions predicted by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under opposing emission scenarios. The second study hopes to answer population-level questions using a traditionally community-level method, non-metric multidimensional scaling, which considers correlation structure between response variables and can be used to find environmental correlates of the ordination axes. Demographic data on a threatened perennial, Astragalus tyghensis, were collected from five sites in the Tygh Valley, OR. I considered correlation structure between demographic vital rates to find environmental correlates of the ordination axes. The search for an environmental driver of population vital rates was successful for the two study species. Previous year dry dormant season precipitation likely affects the fertility rates a year later in P. radiata populations, and dry growing season reference evapotranspiration rates positively correlated with a growth gradient in A. tyghensis. Based on predicted precipitation, P. radiata is expected to rapidly decline by 2050, but this may be due to biases in the two GCMs and reliance on only one environmental factor. The NMS ordination adequately captured most of the variation in transition elements for the years and populations from A. tyghensis demographics. I provided support to the claim that model predictions can improve with the inclusion of mechanistic relationships. The inclusion of abiotic drivers in models used to predict population trends is supported by our study and may enhance predictive power in population viability assessments under changing climates. Title: Using local climate to explain temporal variation in rare plant populations Author: Pfingsten, Ian A. Increased temperatures due to anthropogenic-induced climate change may raise the threat of extinction for taxa with sessile life histories (e.g., plants) in the near future. Linking climate change models to demographic models may provide useful insights into the potential effects of environmental changes on rare plants, and therefore aid in their current and future conservation. Population demographers generally agree that mechanistic models from a reductionist perspective are necessary to test assumptions in population drivers. For the first study, I assessed the climate vulnerability of a rare plant species, Pyrrocoma radiata, with a mechanistic model of four climatically-similar populations. I used environmentally-driven demographic models to estimate vital rates and population sizes from a nonlinear, nonparametric regression with local climate variables. I assessed the utility of this environmentally-correlated, stage-structured population matrix model compared to a stationary model of independent and identically-distributed environmental stochasticity. I then simulated future population projections based on climate conditions predicted by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under opposing emission scenarios. The second study hopes to answer population-level questions using a traditionally community-level method, non-metric multidimensional scaling, which considers correlation structure between response variables and can be used to find environmental correlates of the ordination axes. Demographic data on a threatened perennial, Astragalus tyghensis, were collected from five sites in the Tygh Valley, OR. I considered correlation structure between demographic vital rates to find environmental correlates of the ordination axes. The search for an environmental driver of population vital rates was successful for the two study species. Previous year dry dormant season precipitation likely affects the fertility rates a year later in P. radiata populations, and dry growing season reference evapotranspiration rates positively correlated with a growth gradient in A. tyghensis. Based on predicted precipitation, P. radiata is expected to rapidly decline by 2050, but this may be due to biases in the two GCMs and reliance on only one environmental factor. The NMS ordination adequately captured most of the variation in transition elements for the years and populations from A. tyghensis demographics. I provided support to the claim that model predictions can improve with the inclusion of mechanistic relationships. The inclusion of abiotic drivers in models used to predict population trends is supported by our study and may enhance predictive power in population viability assessments under changing climates. Close