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• 1. [Article] An Analysis of Secular Change in Tides at Open-Ocean Sites in the Pacific

  Hourly sea level is examined at 25 open-ocean stations in the Pacific Ocean with records longer than 30 yr. A search for trends finds that the amplitude of the dominant semidiurnal tide M2 is increasing ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: An Analysis of Secular Change in Tides at Open-Ocean Sites in the Pacific Author: Zaron, Edward D., Jay, David A. Year: 2014 Hourly sea level is examined at 25 open-ocean stations in the Pacific Ocean with records longer than 30 yr. A search for trends finds that the amplitude of the dominant semidiurnal tide M2 is increasing at 12 of the 13 sites where a statistically significant trend can be identified. It is also found that nontidal variance in the neighborhood of M2 is decreasing at all 12 of the sites where a significant increase in M2 tide is occurring. The trend in amplitude of the dominant diurnal tide K1 is significant at six stations, and it is both increasing (four stations) and decreasing (two stations). The trend in semidiurnal-band variance suggests the hypothesis that increases in M2 could be caused by improvements in time keeping or data processing that would reduce the apparent phase variability of the tide. This possibility is examined and found to be the likely explanation for tidal trends at four stations. Local changes are found to explain the trend at two stations, Johnston Island and Mokuoloe, as diagnosed from correlated changes in nonlinear overtides and site history. Changes in M2 at the equatorial station of Kanton are significant and unexplained by either timing errors or local morphodynamics; although, strong nonlinear overtides are present. Changing tides at five stations in the western Pacific, Malakal, Yap, Saipan, Kapingamarangi, and Pohnpei cannot be explained by the above and suggest a region where a connection between climate and tides may yet be identified. Title: An Analysis of Secular Change in Tides at Open-Ocean Sites in the Pacific Author: Zaron, Edward D., Jay, David A. Year: 2014 Hourly sea level is examined at 25 open-ocean stations in the Pacific Ocean with records longer than 30 yr. A search for trends finds that the amplitude of the dominant semidiurnal tide M2 is increasing at 12 of the 13 sites where a statistically significant trend can be identified. It is also found that nontidal variance in the neighborhood of M2 is decreasing at all 12 of the sites where a significant increase in M2 tide is occurring. The trend in amplitude of the dominant diurnal tide K1 is significant at six stations, and it is both increasing (four stations) and decreasing (two stations). The trend in semidiurnal-band variance suggests the hypothesis that increases in M2 could be caused by improvements in time keeping or data processing that would reduce the apparent phase variability of the tide. This possibility is examined and found to be the likely explanation for tidal trends at four stations. Local changes are found to explain the trend at two stations, Johnston Island and Mokuoloe, as diagnosed from correlated changes in nonlinear overtides and site history. Changes in M2 at the equatorial station of Kanton are significant and unexplained by either timing errors or local morphodynamics; although, strong nonlinear overtides are present. Changing tides at five stations in the western Pacific, Malakal, Yap, Saipan, Kapingamarangi, and Pohnpei cannot be explained by the above and suggest a region where a connection between climate and tides may yet be identified. Close

• 2. [Article] A Strategy for Reducing the Impact of Driving Under Influence of Intoxicants in Portland, Oregon

  Driving under the influence of intoxicants (DUII) applies to operating a vehicle under the influence of any substance that can impair driving performance. Nationally and locally there is a strong desire ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Strategy for Reducing the Impact of Driving Under Influence of Intoxicants in Portland, Oregon Author: Monsere, Christopher, Chi, Delia Year: 2008 Driving under the influence of intoxicants (DUII) applies to operating a vehicle under the influence of any substance that can impair driving performance. Nationally and locally there is a strong desire to reduce the societal impacts of this significant social problem. The trend in U.S. alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes was generally decreasing in the mid to late 1980’s but has remained fairly flat since the early 1990s. In 1982, approximately 60% of all US traffic fatalities were alcohol-related. By 1994, this had decreased to 43% but in the decade that followed it has changed little. In 2005, nearly 39% of fatal crashes still involved alcohol. This contrasts sharply with the trends in many other peer industrialized countries such as Australia which has seen a 60% drop in the total number of fatal alcohol-involved crashes since 1980. In most U.S. jurisdictions, the trend for alcohol-involved crashes mirrors the disappointing national trends and in some has even been slightly increasing. The reasons for these trends are many but can be found in changing demographics, reduced resources for enforcement, prosecution, and treatment as well as changing public behaviors and attitudes. The objective of this study was to identify tools, techniques and strategies that could help reverse this trend for the Portland metropolitan area. It is clear that the system to prevent, enforce, adjudicate, and treat alcohol related problems is complex and will require the cooperation and energy of many different stakeholders. Title: A Strategy for Reducing the Impact of Driving Under Influence of Intoxicants in Portland, Oregon Author: Monsere, Christopher, Chi, Delia Year: 2008 Driving under the influence of intoxicants (DUII) applies to operating a vehicle under the influence of any substance that can impair driving performance. Nationally and locally there is a strong desire to reduce the societal impacts of this significant social problem. The trend in U.S. alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes was generally decreasing in the mid to late 1980’s but has remained fairly flat since the early 1990s. In 1982, approximately 60% of all US traffic fatalities were alcohol-related. By 1994, this had decreased to 43% but in the decade that followed it has changed little. In 2005, nearly 39% of fatal crashes still involved alcohol. This contrasts sharply with the trends in many other peer industrialized countries such as Australia which has seen a 60% drop in the total number of fatal alcohol-involved crashes since 1980. In most U.S. jurisdictions, the trend for alcohol-involved crashes mirrors the disappointing national trends and in some has even been slightly increasing. The reasons for these trends are many but can be found in changing demographics, reduced resources for enforcement, prosecution, and treatment as well as changing public behaviors and attitudes. The objective of this study was to identify tools, techniques and strategies that could help reverse this trend for the Portland metropolitan area. It is clear that the system to prevent, enforce, adjudicate, and treat alcohol related problems is complex and will require the cooperation and energy of many different stakeholders. Close

• 3. [Article] Can Tidal Perturbations Associated with Sea Level Variations in the Western Pacific Ocean be used to Understand Future Effects of Tidal Evolution?

  This study examines connections between mean sea level (MSL) variability and diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituent variations at 17 open-ocean and 9 continental shelf tide gauges in the western tropical ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Can Tidal Perturbations Associated with Sea Level Variations in the Western Pacific Ocean be used to Understand Future Effects of Tidal Evolution? Author: Devlin, Adam T., Jay, David A., Talke, Stefan A., Zaron, Edward D. Year: 2014 This study examines connections between mean sea level (MSL) variability and diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituent variations at 17 open-ocean and 9 continental shelf tide gauges in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, a region showing anomalous rise in MSL over the last 20 years and strong interannual variability. Detrended MSL fluctuations are correlated with detrended tidal amplitude and phase fluctuations, defined as tidal anomaly trends (TATs), to quantify the response of tidal properties to MSL variation. About 20 significant amplitude and phase TATs are found for each of the two strongest tidal constituents, K1 (diurnal) and M2 (semidiurnal). Lesser constituents (O1 and S2) show trends at nearly half of all gauges. Fluctuations in MSL shift amplitudes and phases; both positive and negative responses occur. Changing overtides suggest TATs are influenced by changing shallow water friction over the equatorial Western Pacific and the eastern coast of Australia (especially near the Great Barrier Reef). There is a strong connection between semidiurnal TATs at stations around the Solomon Islands and changes in thermocline depth, overtide generation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). TATs for O1, K1 and M2 are related to each other in a manner that suggests transfer of energy from M2 to the two diurnals via resonant triad interactions; these cause major tidal variability on sub-decadal time scales, especially for M2. The response of tides to MSL variability is not only spatially complex, it is frequency dependent; therefore, short-term responses may not predict long-term behavior. Title: Can Tidal Perturbations Associated with Sea Level Variations in the Western Pacific Ocean be used to Understand Future Effects of Tidal Evolution? Author: Devlin, Adam T., Jay, David A., Talke, Stefan A., Zaron, Edward D. Year: 2014 This study examines connections between mean sea level (MSL) variability and diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituent variations at 17 open-ocean and 9 continental shelf tide gauges in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, a region showing anomalous rise in MSL over the last 20 years and strong interannual variability. Detrended MSL fluctuations are correlated with detrended tidal amplitude and phase fluctuations, defined as tidal anomaly trends (TATs), to quantify the response of tidal properties to MSL variation. About 20 significant amplitude and phase TATs are found for each of the two strongest tidal constituents, K1 (diurnal) and M2 (semidiurnal). Lesser constituents (O1 and S2) show trends at nearly half of all gauges. Fluctuations in MSL shift amplitudes and phases; both positive and negative responses occur. Changing overtides suggest TATs are influenced by changing shallow water friction over the equatorial Western Pacific and the eastern coast of Australia (especially near the Great Barrier Reef). There is a strong connection between semidiurnal TATs at stations around the Solomon Islands and changes in thermocline depth, overtide generation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). TATs for O1, K1 and M2 are related to each other in a manner that suggests transfer of energy from M2 to the two diurnals via resonant triad interactions; these cause major tidal variability on sub-decadal time scales, especially for M2. The response of tides to MSL variability is not only spatially complex, it is frequency dependent; therefore, short-term responses may not predict long-term behavior. Close

• 4. [Article] Smarter Cycling

  With the current trend of urbanization, the populations of major cities such as Portland are steadily increasing. This is causing a variety of problems, both within the city and in rural areas. In regards ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Smarter Cycling Author: Koehler, Cory, Smith, Richard, St. Clair, Sarah, Taylor, Alex, Masten, Aubrey, Phillips, Konon Year: 2015 With the current trend of urbanization, the populations of major cities such as Portland are steadily increasing. This is causing a variety of problems, both within the city and in rural areas. In regards to the city, the major challenges facing city planners are the need for the expansion of residential neighborhoods and a rise in traffic throughout the city. One way to tackle the issue of an abundance of traffic, is to make alternate means of transportation more appealing to residents. We chose to focus on bicycling because of the bike‐friendly culture already in place in Portland. An increase on the biking population would reduce the number of cars on the road, decreasing pollution, and cause drivers to be more aware of the bikes that ride beside them. The potential of our project to track bike theft throughout the city allows the bikers to feel more confident about their ability to avoid dangerous parking locations. Title: Smarter Cycling Author: Koehler, Cory, Smith, Richard, St. Clair, Sarah, Taylor, Alex, Masten, Aubrey, Phillips, Konon Year: 2015 With the current trend of urbanization, the populations of major cities such as Portland are steadily increasing. This is causing a variety of problems, both within the city and in rural areas. In regards to the city, the major challenges facing city planners are the need for the expansion of residential neighborhoods and a rise in traffic throughout the city. One way to tackle the issue of an abundance of traffic, is to make alternate means of transportation more appealing to residents. We chose to focus on bicycling because of the bike‐friendly culture already in place in Portland. An increase on the biking population would reduce the number of cars on the road, decreasing pollution, and cause drivers to be more aware of the bikes that ride beside them. The potential of our project to track bike theft throughout the city allows the bikers to feel more confident about their ability to avoid dangerous parking locations. Close

• 5. [Article] Safety Effectiveness of Pedestrian Crossing Enhancements

  Over the last decade, the Oregon DOT and other agencies have systematically implemented many pedestrian crossing enhancements (PCEs) across the state. This study explored the safety performance of these ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Safety Effectiveness of Pedestrian Crossing Enhancements Author: Monsere, Christopher M., Figliozzi, Miguel, Kothuri, Sirisha, Razmpa, Ali, Hazel, Daniel R. Year: 2016 Over the last decade, the Oregon DOT and other agencies have systematically implemented many pedestrian crossing enhancements (PCEs) across the state. This study explored the safety performance of these enhanced crossing in Oregon. Detailed data were collected on 191 crossings. Supplemental data items included crossing location information, route characteristics, surrounding land use and crossing enhancement descriptions. Pedestrian volume at the crossing locations was a highly desirable but unavailable data element. To characterize pedestrian activity, a method was developed to estimate ranges for pedestrian crosswalk activity levels based on the land use classification at the census block level and the presence of pedestrian traffic generators such as bus stops, schools, shopping centers and hospitals within a 0.25-mile radius. Each crosswalk was categorized into one of six levels of activity – very low, low, medium-low, medium, medium-high and high. Crash data for the 2007-2014 period were assembled for the safety analysis. After filtering, 62 pedestrian crashes and 746 rear-end crashes were retained for further analysis. The crash data were merged and analyzed. Crash patterns and risk ratios were explored. The most important trend observed was a shift (reduction) in the pedestrian crash severity after the installation of the crosswalk treatments. This shift was from fatal and injury A crash type to lower severity crashes of injury B and injury C. For pedestrian crashes, increases in the risk ratio were observed for increases in the number of lanes, the posted speed, and estimated pedestrian activity level. Similar trends were observed for rear-end crashes. Due to data limitations, subsequent safety analysis focused on installations of RRFB crossing enhancements. A CMF for RRFB installations was estimated. The CMFS for pedestrian crashes are 0.64 +/- 0.26 using a simple before-after analysis; for rear-end crashes: 0.93 +/- 0.22 using an empirical Bayes analysis approach. Title: Safety Effectiveness of Pedestrian Crossing Enhancements Author: Monsere, Christopher M., Figliozzi, Miguel, Kothuri, Sirisha, Razmpa, Ali, Hazel, Daniel R. Year: 2016 Over the last decade, the Oregon DOT and other agencies have systematically implemented many pedestrian crossing enhancements (PCEs) across the state. This study explored the safety performance of these enhanced crossing in Oregon. Detailed data were collected on 191 crossings. Supplemental data items included crossing location information, route characteristics, surrounding land use and crossing enhancement descriptions. Pedestrian volume at the crossing locations was a highly desirable but unavailable data element. To characterize pedestrian activity, a method was developed to estimate ranges for pedestrian crosswalk activity levels based on the land use classification at the census block level and the presence of pedestrian traffic generators such as bus stops, schools, shopping centers and hospitals within a 0.25-mile radius. Each crosswalk was categorized into one of six levels of activity – very low, low, medium-low, medium, medium-high and high. Crash data for the 2007-2014 period were assembled for the safety analysis. After filtering, 62 pedestrian crashes and 746 rear-end crashes were retained for further analysis. The crash data were merged and analyzed. Crash patterns and risk ratios were explored. The most important trend observed was a shift (reduction) in the pedestrian crash severity after the installation of the crosswalk treatments. This shift was from fatal and injury A crash type to lower severity crashes of injury B and injury C. For pedestrian crashes, increases in the risk ratio were observed for increases in the number of lanes, the posted speed, and estimated pedestrian activity level. Similar trends were observed for rear-end crashes. Due to data limitations, subsequent safety analysis focused on installations of RRFB crossing enhancements. A CMF for RRFB installations was estimated. The CMFS for pedestrian crashes are 0.64 +/- 0.26 using a simple before-after analysis; for rear-end crashes: 0.93 +/- 0.22 using an empirical Bayes analysis approach. Close

• 6. [Article] Understanding Residential Location Choices for Climate Change and Transportation Decision Making: Phase 2 Report

  This research builds on the related Phase 1 project. In this second phase, we continue to study neighborhood and housing preferences that shape the residential location decision process. An online experimental ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Understanding Residential Location Choices for Climate Change and Transportation Decision Making: Phase 2 Report Author: Clifton, Kelly J., Gehrke, Steven R., Currans, Kristina Marie Year: 2015 This research builds on the related Phase 1 project. In this second phase, we continue to study neighborhood and housing preferences that shape the residential location decision process. An online experimental survey tool is developed to investigate lifestyle preferences and tradeoffs that households make in their location decisions. This computer-aided experimental survey draws upon stated preference methods to engage participants in questions about residential location and transportation options. The survey infrastructure was extensively piloted (6-10% response rate). The 10-minute survey can be deployed for future investigations. This infrastructure is a contribution for the integration of visualized neighborhood typologies, or concepts, which were objectively defined using data from 25 of the most populous metropolitan regions from around the United States. The construct of neighborhoods is based upon national data to account for potential options not currently available in Oregon. These visualizations help ground the survey respondents in the same reality and were carefully crafted to convey various attributes of the built and transportation environment. The initial analysis of the preference data collected in this survey (N=1,035) indicates that the preferences for neighborhood, housing, and transportation characteristics have a greater influence on the preferred neighborhood concept than the more typically used socio-economic characteristics (income, household size, age). Another interesting preliminary finding is that 27% of respondents would prefer to live in a more urban neighborhood than they currently reside. These “urban seeking” respondents had no particular demographic trend, providing little evidence that specific socioeconomic markets had specific preferences for the built environment. Title: Understanding Residential Location Choices for Climate Change and Transportation Decision Making: Phase 2 Report Author: Clifton, Kelly J., Gehrke, Steven R., Currans, Kristina Marie Year: 2015 This research builds on the related Phase 1 project. In this second phase, we continue to study neighborhood and housing preferences that shape the residential location decision process. An online experimental survey tool is developed to investigate lifestyle preferences and tradeoffs that households make in their location decisions. This computer-aided experimental survey draws upon stated preference methods to engage participants in questions about residential location and transportation options. The survey infrastructure was extensively piloted (6-10% response rate). The 10-minute survey can be deployed for future investigations. This infrastructure is a contribution for the integration of visualized neighborhood typologies, or concepts, which were objectively defined using data from 25 of the most populous metropolitan regions from around the United States. The construct of neighborhoods is based upon national data to account for potential options not currently available in Oregon. These visualizations help ground the survey respondents in the same reality and were carefully crafted to convey various attributes of the built and transportation environment. The initial analysis of the preference data collected in this survey (N=1,035) indicates that the preferences for neighborhood, housing, and transportation characteristics have a greater influence on the preferred neighborhood concept than the more typically used socio-economic characteristics (income, household size, age). Another interesting preliminary finding is that 27% of respondents would prefer to live in a more urban neighborhood than they currently reside. These “urban seeking” respondents had no particular demographic trend, providing little evidence that specific socioeconomic markets had specific preferences for the built environment. Close

• 7. [Article] Safety Effectiveness of Pedestrian Crossing Treatments

  Over the last decade, the transportation agencies in Oregon have systematically enhanced many pedestrian crossings at mid-block locations with Rectangular Rapid Flashing Beacons (RRFBs), Flashing Yellow ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Safety Effectiveness of Pedestrian Crossing Treatments Author: Monsere, Christopher Year: 2017 Over the last decade, the transportation agencies in Oregon have systematically enhanced many pedestrian crossings at mid-block locations with Rectangular Rapid Flashing Beacons (RRFBs), Flashing Yellow Beacons (Flash), and high visibility crosswalk markings (Hi-Vis). Enhancements often included the installation of refuge medians. This study explored the safety performance of these enhanced crossings, categorized by enhancement type. Data were collected on 191 crossings that included installation year, geometric features, surrounding land use, traffic volumes, and the number of crashes. Because pedestrian volume at the locations was unavailable, a pedestrian activity level variable was developed. Target crashes for analysis were identified as pedestrian and rear-end. The analysis of the before-after crash patterns showed a reduction in the pedestrian crash severity after the installation of the crosswalk enhancements. Risk ratios, calculated by the unadjusted crash frequency relative to the years of operation in each analysis category, were calculated. For pedestrian crashes, risk ratios increased with the number of lanes, posted speed, and estimated pedestrian activity level. Similar trends were observed for rear-end crashes. Due to sample size limitations, safety effectiveness was only estimated for the 19 RRFBs locations. Lack of pedestrian volumes limited the development of a safety performance function (SPF) for the pedestrian crash types. However, a rear-end crash SPF was estimated. Standard methods to estimate a crash modification factor (CMF) were attempted. The recommended CMF for pedestrian crashes is 0.64 +/- 0.26 using a simple before-after analysis and 0.93 +/- 0.22 for rear-end crashes using an empirical Bayes analysis. The final report that the presentation is derived from is available: https://doi.org/10.15760/trec.168 Title: Safety Effectiveness of Pedestrian Crossing Treatments Author: Monsere, Christopher Year: 2017 Over the last decade, the transportation agencies in Oregon have systematically enhanced many pedestrian crossings at mid-block locations with Rectangular Rapid Flashing Beacons (RRFBs), Flashing Yellow Beacons (Flash), and high visibility crosswalk markings (Hi-Vis). Enhancements often included the installation of refuge medians. This study explored the safety performance of these enhanced crossings, categorized by enhancement type. Data were collected on 191 crossings that included installation year, geometric features, surrounding land use, traffic volumes, and the number of crashes. Because pedestrian volume at the locations was unavailable, a pedestrian activity level variable was developed. Target crashes for analysis were identified as pedestrian and rear-end. The analysis of the before-after crash patterns showed a reduction in the pedestrian crash severity after the installation of the crosswalk enhancements. Risk ratios, calculated by the unadjusted crash frequency relative to the years of operation in each analysis category, were calculated. For pedestrian crashes, risk ratios increased with the number of lanes, posted speed, and estimated pedestrian activity level. Similar trends were observed for rear-end crashes. Due to sample size limitations, safety effectiveness was only estimated for the 19 RRFBs locations. Lack of pedestrian volumes limited the development of a safety performance function (SPF) for the pedestrian crash types. However, a rear-end crash SPF was estimated. Standard methods to estimate a crash modification factor (CMF) were attempted. The recommended CMF for pedestrian crashes is 0.64 +/- 0.26 using a simple before-after analysis and 0.93 +/- 0.22 for rear-end crashes using an empirical Bayes analysis. The final report that the presentation is derived from is available: https://doi.org/10.15760/trec.168 Close

• 8. [Article] Hydrodynamics and Morphology in the Ems/Dollard Estuary: Review of Models, Measurements, Scientific Literature, and the Effects of Changing Conditions

  The Ems estuary has constantly changed over the past centuries both from man-made and natural influences. On the time scale of thousands of years, sea level rise has created the estuary and dynamically ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hydrodynamics and Morphology in the Ems/Dollard Estuary: Review of Models, Measurements, Scientific Literature, and the Effects of Changing Conditions Author: Talke, Stefan A., de Swart, Huib E. Year: 2006 The Ems estuary has constantly changed over the past centuries both from man-made and natural influences. On the time scale of thousands of years, sea level rise has created the estuary and dynamically changed its boundaries. More recently, storm surges created the Dollard sub-basin in the 14th -15th centuries. Beginning in the 16th century, diking and reclamation of land has greatly altered the surface area of the Ems estuary, particularly in the Dollard. These natural and anthropogenic changes to the surface area of the Ems altered the flow patterns of water, the tidal characteristics, and the patterns of sediment deposition and erosion. Since 1945, reclamation of land has halted and the borders of the Ems estuary have changed little. Sea level rise has continued, and over the past 40 years the rate of increase in mean high water (MHW) along the German coast has accelerated to 40 cm/ century. Climate has varied on a decadal time scale due to long-term variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which controls precipitation, temperature, and the direction and magnitude of winds. Between 1960 and 1990 the most intense variation in the NAO index on record was observed. As a result the magnitude and frequency of storm surges increased, and mean wave heights increased at 1-2 cm/year. Currently the NAO index—and therefore storminess—is trending downwards. Over the longer term, global warming models predict an average temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius over the next century. A doubling of CO2 is expected to increase sea level by 30 cm, while the significant wind speed and wave heights in the North Sea are predicted to increase by 50 cm/s and 50 cm, respectively. Beginning in the late 1950’s, dredging activity and construction measures in harbours and shipping channels greatly altered the physical processes in the Ems. Deepening and streamlining the Ems River and shipping channel between the 1960s and 1990s decreased the hydraulic roughness and increased the tidal range in the river above Emden by as much as 1.5 m. At the turbidity maximum between Emden and Papenburg, concentrations of sediment are currently between 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than in the 1950’s, and fluid mud layers of several meters thickness occur. Other man-made changes, such as gas pipelines and the expansion of harbours, have often caused significant, but more localized, changes to the estuary. Between the mid 19th century and the 1970’s, dumping of organic waste—agricultural, industrial, and human—severely stressed the ecology of the Dollard sub-basin in particular. Since then the input of organic waste has been greatly reduced and anoxic conditions eliminated. However, the increase in turbidity at the turbidity maximum has caused depleted oxygen concentrations and periodic anoxia between Pogum and Papenburg during the summer months (personal communication, H. Juergens; Talke et al, 2005). The Ems is a relatively well studied estuary. Significant research projects have included the BOEDE project in the 1970’s --1980’s and the BOA and INTRAMUD projects in the 1990’s. These projects and other efforts have amassed a deep literature in the knowledge of tidal flats, fluid mud and flocculation, and mixing and dispersion processes. Projects currently underway are focusing on tidal dynamics and the affects of dredging in the high turbidity zone between Emden and Herbrum. Optimal management of the estuary is the goal of the HARBASINS project. Many analytical and numerical models have been applied to the Ems estuary to estimate tidal range, storm surges, wave fields, sediment transport, and mixing and dispersion processes. Analytical models to estimate mixing of scalars and sediment fluxes (Sediment Trend Analysis) have been extensively used. Numerical models such as WAQUA, unTRIM, MIKE3, Telemac 2D, SWAN, Delft 3D –Sed, and others have been applied to the Ems. While reasonable results are found for short term processes (order of days), long-term morphological change cannot yet be predicted. For the Ems catchement basin, the numerical models REGFLUD and FLUMAGIS are used to estimate nutrient inputs from diffuse sources and to visualize and evaluate the effects of land-use change. Title: Hydrodynamics and Morphology in the Ems/Dollard Estuary: Review of Models, Measurements, Scientific Literature, and the Effects of Changing Conditions Author: Talke, Stefan A., de Swart, Huib E. Year: 2006 The Ems estuary has constantly changed over the past centuries both from man-made and natural influences. On the time scale of thousands of years, sea level rise has created the estuary and dynamically changed its boundaries. More recently, storm surges created the Dollard sub-basin in the 14th -15th centuries. Beginning in the 16th century, diking and reclamation of land has greatly altered the surface area of the Ems estuary, particularly in the Dollard. These natural and anthropogenic changes to the surface area of the Ems altered the flow patterns of water, the tidal characteristics, and the patterns of sediment deposition and erosion. Since 1945, reclamation of land has halted and the borders of the Ems estuary have changed little. Sea level rise has continued, and over the past 40 years the rate of increase in mean high water (MHW) along the German coast has accelerated to 40 cm/ century. Climate has varied on a decadal time scale due to long-term variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which controls precipitation, temperature, and the direction and magnitude of winds. Between 1960 and 1990 the most intense variation in the NAO index on record was observed. As a result the magnitude and frequency of storm surges increased, and mean wave heights increased at 1-2 cm/year. Currently the NAO index—and therefore storminess—is trending downwards. Over the longer term, global warming models predict an average temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius over the next century. A doubling of CO2 is expected to increase sea level by 30 cm, while the significant wind speed and wave heights in the North Sea are predicted to increase by 50 cm/s and 50 cm, respectively. Beginning in the late 1950’s, dredging activity and construction measures in harbours and shipping channels greatly altered the physical processes in the Ems. Deepening and streamlining the Ems River and shipping channel between the 1960s and 1990s decreased the hydraulic roughness and increased the tidal range in the river above Emden by as much as 1.5 m. At the turbidity maximum between Emden and Papenburg, concentrations of sediment are currently between 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than in the 1950’s, and fluid mud layers of several meters thickness occur. Other man-made changes, such as gas pipelines and the expansion of harbours, have often caused significant, but more localized, changes to the estuary. Between the mid 19th century and the 1970’s, dumping of organic waste—agricultural, industrial, and human—severely stressed the ecology of the Dollard sub-basin in particular. Since then the input of organic waste has been greatly reduced and anoxic conditions eliminated. However, the increase in turbidity at the turbidity maximum has caused depleted oxygen concentrations and periodic anoxia between Pogum and Papenburg during the summer months (personal communication, H. Juergens; Talke et al, 2005). The Ems is a relatively well studied estuary. Significant research projects have included the BOEDE project in the 1970’s --1980’s and the BOA and INTRAMUD projects in the 1990’s. These projects and other efforts have amassed a deep literature in the knowledge of tidal flats, fluid mud and flocculation, and mixing and dispersion processes. Projects currently underway are focusing on tidal dynamics and the affects of dredging in the high turbidity zone between Emden and Herbrum. Optimal management of the estuary is the goal of the HARBASINS project. Many analytical and numerical models have been applied to the Ems estuary to estimate tidal range, storm surges, wave fields, sediment transport, and mixing and dispersion processes. Analytical models to estimate mixing of scalars and sediment fluxes (Sediment Trend Analysis) have been extensively used. Numerical models such as WAQUA, unTRIM, MIKE3, Telemac 2D, SWAN, Delft 3D –Sed, and others have been applied to the Ems. While reasonable results are found for short term processes (order of days), long-term morphological change cannot yet be predicted. For the Ems catchement basin, the numerical models REGFLUD and FLUMAGIS are used to estimate nutrient inputs from diffuse sources and to visualize and evaluate the effects of land-use change. Close