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• 1. [Article] Understanding the Joint Behavior of Temperature and Precipitation for Climate Change Impact Studies

  The multiple downscaled-scenario products allow us to assess the uncertainty of the variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Probabilistic assessments of both climatic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Understanding the Joint Behavior of Temperature and Precipitation for Climate Change Impact Studies Author: Rana, Arun, Moradkhani, Hamid, Qin, Yueyue Year: 2016 The multiple downscaled-scenario products allow us to assess the uncertainty of the variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Probabilistic assessments of both climatic variables help better understand the interdependence of the two, and thus in-turn help in assessing the future with confidence. In the present study, we use ensemble of statistically downscaled precipitation and temperature from various models. The dataset used is multi-model ensemble of 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled product from CMIP5 daily dataset, using the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, generated at Portland State University. The multi-model ensemble of both precipitation and temperature is evaluated for dry and wet periods for 10 sub-basins across Columbia River Basin (CRB). Thereafter, Copula is applied to establish the joint distribution of two variables on multi-model ensemble data. The joint distribution is then used to estimate the change in trends of said variables in future, along with estimation of the probabilities of the given change. The joint distribution trends varies, but certainly positive, for dry and wet periods in sub-basins of CRB. Dry season, generally, is indicating a higher positive change in precipitation than temperature (as compared to historical) across sub-basins with wet season inferring otherwise. Probabilities of changes in future, as estimated from the joint distribution indicate varied degrees and forms during dry season whereas the wet season is rather constant across all the sub-basins. Title: Understanding the Joint Behavior of Temperature and Precipitation for Climate Change Impact Studies Author: Rana, Arun, Moradkhani, Hamid, Qin, Yueyue Year: 2016 The multiple downscaled-scenario products allow us to assess the uncertainty of the variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Probabilistic assessments of both climatic variables help better understand the interdependence of the two, and thus in-turn help in assessing the future with confidence. In the present study, we use ensemble of statistically downscaled precipitation and temperature from various models. The dataset used is multi-model ensemble of 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled product from CMIP5 daily dataset, using the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, generated at Portland State University. The multi-model ensemble of both precipitation and temperature is evaluated for dry and wet periods for 10 sub-basins across Columbia River Basin (CRB). Thereafter, Copula is applied to establish the joint distribution of two variables on multi-model ensemble data. The joint distribution is then used to estimate the change in trends of said variables in future, along with estimation of the probabilities of the given change. The joint distribution trends varies, but certainly positive, for dry and wet periods in sub-basins of CRB. Dry season, generally, is indicating a higher positive change in precipitation than temperature (as compared to historical) across sub-basins with wet season inferring otherwise. Probabilities of changes in future, as estimated from the joint distribution indicate varied degrees and forms during dry season whereas the wet season is rather constant across all the sub-basins. Close

• 2. [Article] Comparison of in Situ and Columnar Aerosol Spectral Measurements during TexAQS-GoMACCS 2006: Testing Parameterizations for Estimating Aerosol Fine Mode Properties

  During the 2006 Texas Air Quality Study and Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (TexAQS-GoMACCS 2006), the optical, chemical and microphysical properties of atmospheric aerosols were ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Comparison of in Situ and Columnar Aerosol Spectral Measurements during TexAQS-GoMACCS 2006: Testing Parameterizations for Estimating Aerosol Fine Mode Properties Author: Atkinson, Dean B., Massoli, Paola, O’Neill, Norman T., Quinn, Patricia K., Brooks, Sarah D., Lefer, Barry Year: 2010 During the 2006 Texas Air Quality Study and Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (TexAQS-GoMACCS 2006), the optical, chemical and microphysical properties of atmospheric aerosols were measured on multiple mobile platforms and at ground based stations. In situ measurements of the aerosol light extinction coefficient (σep) were performed by two multi-wavelength cavity ring-down (CRD) instruments, one located on board the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown (RHB) and the other located at the University of Houston, Moody Tower (UHMT). An AERONET sunphotometer was also located at the UHMT to measure the columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD). The σep data were used to extract the extinction Ångstrӧm exponent (åep), a measure of the wavelength dependence of σep. There was general agreement between the åep (and to a lesser degree σep) measurements by the two spatially separated CRD instruments during multi-day periods, suggesting a regional scale consistency of the sampled aerosols. Two spectral models are applied to the σep and AOD data to extract the fine mode fraction of extinction (ᵑ) and the fine mode effective radius (Reff,f). These two parameters are robust measures of the fine mode contribution to total extinction and the fine mode size distribution, respectively. The results of the analysis are compared to Reff,f values extracted using AERONET V2 retrievals and calculated from in situ particle size measurements on the RHB and at UHMT. During a time period when fine mode aerosols dominated the extinction over a large area extending from Houston/Galveston Bay and out into the Gulf of Mexico, the various methods for obtaining Reff,f agree qualitatively (showing the same temporal trend) and quantitatively (pooled standard deviation = 28 nm). Title: Comparison of in Situ and Columnar Aerosol Spectral Measurements during TexAQS-GoMACCS 2006: Testing Parameterizations for Estimating Aerosol Fine Mode Properties Author: Atkinson, Dean B., Massoli, Paola, O’Neill, Norman T., Quinn, Patricia K., Brooks, Sarah D., Lefer, Barry Year: 2010 During the 2006 Texas Air Quality Study and Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (TexAQS-GoMACCS 2006), the optical, chemical and microphysical properties of atmospheric aerosols were measured on multiple mobile platforms and at ground based stations. In situ measurements of the aerosol light extinction coefficient (σep) were performed by two multi-wavelength cavity ring-down (CRD) instruments, one located on board the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown (RHB) and the other located at the University of Houston, Moody Tower (UHMT). An AERONET sunphotometer was also located at the UHMT to measure the columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD). The σep data were used to extract the extinction Ångstrӧm exponent (åep), a measure of the wavelength dependence of σep. There was general agreement between the åep (and to a lesser degree σep) measurements by the two spatially separated CRD instruments during multi-day periods, suggesting a regional scale consistency of the sampled aerosols. Two spectral models are applied to the σep and AOD data to extract the fine mode fraction of extinction (ᵑ) and the fine mode effective radius (Reff,f). These two parameters are robust measures of the fine mode contribution to total extinction and the fine mode size distribution, respectively. The results of the analysis are compared to Reff,f values extracted using AERONET V2 retrievals and calculated from in situ particle size measurements on the RHB and at UHMT. During a time period when fine mode aerosols dominated the extinction over a large area extending from Houston/Galveston Bay and out into the Gulf of Mexico, the various methods for obtaining Reff,f agree qualitatively (showing the same temporal trend) and quantitatively (pooled standard deviation = 28 nm). Close

• 3. [Article] Application of Tree-Structured Regression for Regional Precipitation Prediction Using General Circulation Model Output

  This study presents a tree-structured regression (TSR) method to relate daily precipitation with a variety of free-atmosphere variables. Historical data were used to identify distinct weather patterns ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Application of Tree-Structured Regression for Regional Precipitation Prediction Using General Circulation Model Output Author: Li, Xiangshang, Sailor, David J. Year: 2000 This study presents a tree-structured regression (TSR) method to relate daily precipitation with a variety of free-atmosphere variables. Historical data were used to identify distinct weather patterns associated with differing types of precipitation events. Models were developed using 67% of the data for training and the remaining data for model validation. Seasonal models were built for each of 2 US sites: San Francisco, California, and San Antonio, Texas. The average correlation between observed and simulated daily precipitation data series is 0.75 for the training set and 0.68 for the validation set. Relative humidity was found to be the dominant variable in these TSR models. Output from an NCAR CSM (climate system model) transient simulation of climate change were then used to drive the TSR models in the prediction of precipitation characteristics under climate change. A preliminary screening of the GCM output variables for current climate, however, revealed significant problems for the San Antonio site. Specifically, the CSM missed the annual trends in humidity for the grid cell containing this site. CSM output for the San Francisco site was found to be much more reliable. Therefore, we present future precipitation estimates only for the San Francisco site. Title: Application of Tree-Structured Regression for Regional Precipitation Prediction Using General Circulation Model Output Author: Li, Xiangshang, Sailor, David J. Year: 2000 This study presents a tree-structured regression (TSR) method to relate daily precipitation with a variety of free-atmosphere variables. Historical data were used to identify distinct weather patterns associated with differing types of precipitation events. Models were developed using 67% of the data for training and the remaining data for model validation. Seasonal models were built for each of 2 US sites: San Francisco, California, and San Antonio, Texas. The average correlation between observed and simulated daily precipitation data series is 0.75 for the training set and 0.68 for the validation set. Relative humidity was found to be the dominant variable in these TSR models. Output from an NCAR CSM (climate system model) transient simulation of climate change were then used to drive the TSR models in the prediction of precipitation characteristics under climate change. A preliminary screening of the GCM output variables for current climate, however, revealed significant problems for the San Antonio site. Specifically, the CSM missed the annual trends in humidity for the grid cell containing this site. CSM output for the San Francisco site was found to be much more reliable. Therefore, we present future precipitation estimates only for the San Francisco site. Close

• 4. [Article] The Production of Organic Nitrates in Portland Oregon and the Columbia River Gorge

  This work studied the production of aerosol-phase organic nitrates in both Portland and the Columbia River Gorge (CRG). Ozone and NOx species were investigated for correlation with organic nitrate aerosol, ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The Production of Organic Nitrates in Portland Oregon and the Columbia River Gorge Author: Neill, Holly Ann Year: 2013 This work studied the production of aerosol-phase organic nitrates in both Portland and the Columbia River Gorge (CRG). Ozone and NOx species were investigated for correlation with organic nitrate aerosol, as they function as precursors to the production of organic nitrates. These ambient gas-phase measurements were collected in the same locations as high-volume (Hi-Vol) filters samples, in an urban and rural gorge setting to investigate correlations at the origin of the pollution plume and downwind. A novel Soxhlet extraction method for Hi-Vol filters was developed based on literature and EPA standard methods. Analysis for nitrate production was done by segregating data based on times when the wind blew out of Portland and down the CRG versus times when flow was not westerly. Filters were then compared to ambient gas-phase measurements and derived NO3 radical production rates to look for trends. Wind direction had a strong influence on the concentrations of precursor molecules in the CRG. On days with a westerly wind direction into the gorge, concentrations of the measure aerosol organic nitrates were similar at both sides. This suggests some contribution of a broader regional production of organic nitrates. There was some correlation between the production rate of NO3 radicals and the measured organic nitrate aerosol, suggesting a role for NO3 + VOC production of organic nitrates that later partition to the aerosol phase. This information will better illuminate the fate of nitrogen downwind of pollution sources. The information will also help to create a better understanding of the way topography and meteorological conditions can influence the flow of pollution. Understanding the downwind oxidative chemistry that happens in the CRG would better support both pollution prevention and mitigation efforts. Title: The Production of Organic Nitrates in Portland Oregon and the Columbia River Gorge Author: Neill, Holly Ann Year: 2013 This work studied the production of aerosol-phase organic nitrates in both Portland and the Columbia River Gorge (CRG). Ozone and NOx species were investigated for correlation with organic nitrate aerosol, as they function as precursors to the production of organic nitrates. These ambient gas-phase measurements were collected in the same locations as high-volume (Hi-Vol) filters samples, in an urban and rural gorge setting to investigate correlations at the origin of the pollution plume and downwind. A novel Soxhlet extraction method for Hi-Vol filters was developed based on literature and EPA standard methods. Analysis for nitrate production was done by segregating data based on times when the wind blew out of Portland and down the CRG versus times when flow was not westerly. Filters were then compared to ambient gas-phase measurements and derived NO3 radical production rates to look for trends. Wind direction had a strong influence on the concentrations of precursor molecules in the CRG. On days with a westerly wind direction into the gorge, concentrations of the measure aerosol organic nitrates were similar at both sides. This suggests some contribution of a broader regional production of organic nitrates. There was some correlation between the production rate of NO3 radicals and the measured organic nitrate aerosol, suggesting a role for NO3 + VOC production of organic nitrates that later partition to the aerosol phase. This information will better illuminate the fate of nitrogen downwind of pollution sources. The information will also help to create a better understanding of the way topography and meteorological conditions can influence the flow of pollution. Understanding the downwind oxidative chemistry that happens in the CRG would better support both pollution prevention and mitigation efforts. Close

• 5. [Article] Effects of Runoff Sensitivity and Catchment Characteristics on Regional Actual Evapotranspiration Trends in the Conterminous US

  An understanding of the role of hydro-climatic and geographic regimes on regional actual evapotranspiration (AET) change is essential to improving our knowledge on predicting water availability in a changing ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Effects of Runoff Sensitivity and Catchment Characteristics on Regional Actual Evapotranspiration Trends in the Conterminous US Author: Jung, Il-Won, Chang, Heejun, Risley, John Year: 2013 An understanding of the role of hydro-climatic and geographic regimes on regional actual evapotranspiration (AET) change is essential to improving our knowledge on predicting water availability in a changing climate. This study investigates the relationship between AET change for a 60 year period (1951–2010) and the runoff sensitivity in 255 undisturbed catchments over the US. The runoff sensitivity to climate change is simply defined as the relative magnitude between runoff and precipitation changes with time. Runoff sensitivity can readily explain the conflicting directions of AET changes under similar precipitation change. Under increasing precipitation, AET decreases when runoff is increasing more rapidly than precipitation based on the water balance. Conversely, AET increases when runoff is decreasing more rapidly than precipitation. This result indicates that runoff sensitivity to climate change is a key factor for understanding regional water availability change at the catchment scale. In addition, a stepwise multiple regression analysis and a geographically weighted regression analysis show that the portion of evergreen forest and the mean elevation of a catchment may play a secondary role in the spatial pattern of the AET change, and the relative importance of such explanatory variables may change over space. Title: Effects of Runoff Sensitivity and Catchment Characteristics on Regional Actual Evapotranspiration Trends in the Conterminous US Author: Jung, Il-Won, Chang, Heejun, Risley, John Year: 2013 An understanding of the role of hydro-climatic and geographic regimes on regional actual evapotranspiration (AET) change is essential to improving our knowledge on predicting water availability in a changing climate. This study investigates the relationship between AET change for a 60 year period (1951–2010) and the runoff sensitivity in 255 undisturbed catchments over the US. The runoff sensitivity to climate change is simply defined as the relative magnitude between runoff and precipitation changes with time. Runoff sensitivity can readily explain the conflicting directions of AET changes under similar precipitation change. Under increasing precipitation, AET decreases when runoff is increasing more rapidly than precipitation based on the water balance. Conversely, AET increases when runoff is decreasing more rapidly than precipitation. This result indicates that runoff sensitivity to climate change is a key factor for understanding regional water availability change at the catchment scale. In addition, a stepwise multiple regression analysis and a geographically weighted regression analysis show that the portion of evergreen forest and the mean elevation of a catchment may play a secondary role in the spatial pattern of the AET change, and the relative importance of such explanatory variables may change over space. Close