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• 1. [Article] Large-Scale Fluidization Features from Late Holocene Coseismic Paleoliquefaction in the Willamette River Forearc Valley, Central Cascadia Subduction Zone, Oregon, USA

  A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Large-Scale Fluidization Features from Late Holocene Coseismic Paleoliquefaction in the Willamette River Forearc Valley, Central Cascadia Subduction Zone, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Kristensen, Kurt, Minor, Rick Year: 2014 A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. Eight cutbank sites are reported that show evidence of large-scale fluidization features (≥10 cm width) including clastic sand dikes and intruded sand sills in Holocene overbank mud deposits. The targeted alluvial sequences, and hosted paleoliquefaction records, are of late Holocene age, as based on radiocarbon dating, flood silt thickness (≤4 m thickness), and minimal consolidation of dike sand (~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2 unconfined compressive strength). Two of the paleoliquefaction sites, which are separated by 150 km distance, overlap in age (175 - 500 yr BP) with the last great megathrust rupture (Mw 8.5 - 9.0) in the Cascadia margin, dated at AD 1700. The scarcity of exposed late Holocene paleoliquefaction sites in the Willamette River cutbanks motivated subsurface searches for thick basal sand deposits and overlying fluidization features, using floodplain geomorphological analyses, ground penetrating radar, and remote pole-camera scans of deep trench walls (3 - 4 m depth). The onset of large-scale fluidization features occurred in overbank mud deposits (2 - 3 m thickness) above unconsolidated sand bodies (≥2 m thickness) with unconfined compressive strengths of ~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2. We recommend geomorphically-targeted subsurface explorations rather than traditional cutbank searches for evidence of coseismic paleoliquefaction in high-gradient river valley systems. Title: Large-Scale Fluidization Features from Late Holocene Coseismic Paleoliquefaction in the Willamette River Forearc Valley, Central Cascadia Subduction Zone, Oregon, USA Author: Peterson, Curt D., Kristensen, Kurt, Minor, Rick Year: 2014 A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. A search of Willamette River cutbanks was conducted for the presence of late Holocene paleoli-quefaction records in the Willamette forearc valley, located 175 ± 25 km landward from the buried trench in the central Cascadia subduction zone. Eight cutbank sites are reported that show evidence of large-scale fluidization features (≥10 cm width) including clastic sand dikes and intruded sand sills in Holocene overbank mud deposits. The targeted alluvial sequences, and hosted paleoliquefaction records, are of late Holocene age, as based on radiocarbon dating, flood silt thickness (≤4 m thickness), and minimal consolidation of dike sand (~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2 unconfined compressive strength). Two of the paleoliquefaction sites, which are separated by 150 km distance, overlap in age (175 - 500 yr BP) with the last great megathrust rupture (Mw 8.5 - 9.0) in the Cascadia margin, dated at AD 1700. The scarcity of exposed late Holocene paleoliquefaction sites in the Willamette River cutbanks motivated subsurface searches for thick basal sand deposits and overlying fluidization features, using floodplain geomorphological analyses, ground penetrating radar, and remote pole-camera scans of deep trench walls (3 - 4 m depth). The onset of large-scale fluidization features occurred in overbank mud deposits (2 - 3 m thickness) above unconsolidated sand bodies (≥2 m thickness) with unconfined compressive strengths of ~1.5 ± 0.5 kg·cm-2. We recommend geomorphically-targeted subsurface explorations rather than traditional cutbank searches for evidence of coseismic paleoliquefaction in high-gradient river valley systems. Close

• 2. [Article] A Morphologic Proxy for Debris Flow Erosion With Application to the Earthquake Deformation Cycle, Cascadia Subduction Zone, USA

  In unglaciated steeplands, valley reaches dominated by debris flow scour and incision set landscape form as they often account for > 80% of valley network length and relief. While hillslope and fluvial ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Morphologic Proxy for Debris Flow Erosion With Application to the Earthquake Deformation Cycle, Cascadia Subduction Zone, USA Author: Penserini, Brian D., Roering, Joshua J., Strieg, Ashley Year: 2017 In unglaciated steeplands, valley reaches dominated by debris flow scour and incision set landscape form as they often account for > 80% of valley network length and relief. While hillslope and fluvial process models have frequently been combined with digital topography to develop morphologic proxies for erosion rate and drainage divide migration, debris-flow-dominated networks, despite their ubiquity, have not been exploited for this purpose. Here, we applied an empirical function that describes how slope-area data systematically deviate from so-called fluvial power-law behavior at small drainage areas. Using airborne LiDAR data for 83 small (~ 1 km2) catchments in the western Oregon Coast Range, we quantified variation in model parameters and observed that the curvature of the power-law scaling deviation varies with catchment-averaged erosion rate estimated from cosmogenic nuclides in stream sediments. Given consistent climate and lithology across our study area and assuming steady erosion, we used this calibrated denudation-morphology relationship to map spatial patterns of long-term uplift for our study catchments. By combining our predicted pattern of long-term uplift rate with paleoseismic and geodetic (tide gauge, GPS, and leveling) data, we estimated the spatial distribution of coseismic subsidence experienced during megathrust earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Our estimates of coseismic subsidence near the coast (0.4 to 0.7 m for earthquake recurrence intervals of 300 to 500 years) agree with field measurements from numerous stratigraphic studies. Our results also demonstrate that coseismic subsidence decreases inland to negligible values > 25 km from the coast, reflecting the diminishing influence of the earthquake deformation cycle on vertical changes of the interior coastal ranges. More generally, our results demonstrate that debris flow valley networks serve as highly localized, yet broadly distributed indicators of erosion (and rock uplift), making them invaluable for mapping crustal deformation and landscape adjustment. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. Title: A Morphologic Proxy for Debris Flow Erosion With Application to the Earthquake Deformation Cycle, Cascadia Subduction Zone, USA Author: Penserini, Brian D., Roering, Joshua J., Strieg, Ashley Year: 2017 In unglaciated steeplands, valley reaches dominated by debris flow scour and incision set landscape form as they often account for > 80% of valley network length and relief. While hillslope and fluvial process models have frequently been combined with digital topography to develop morphologic proxies for erosion rate and drainage divide migration, debris-flow-dominated networks, despite their ubiquity, have not been exploited for this purpose. Here, we applied an empirical function that describes how slope-area data systematically deviate from so-called fluvial power-law behavior at small drainage areas. Using airborne LiDAR data for 83 small (~ 1 km2) catchments in the western Oregon Coast Range, we quantified variation in model parameters and observed that the curvature of the power-law scaling deviation varies with catchment-averaged erosion rate estimated from cosmogenic nuclides in stream sediments. Given consistent climate and lithology across our study area and assuming steady erosion, we used this calibrated denudation-morphology relationship to map spatial patterns of long-term uplift for our study catchments. By combining our predicted pattern of long-term uplift rate with paleoseismic and geodetic (tide gauge, GPS, and leveling) data, we estimated the spatial distribution of coseismic subsidence experienced during megathrust earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Our estimates of coseismic subsidence near the coast (0.4 to 0.7 m for earthquake recurrence intervals of 300 to 500 years) agree with field measurements from numerous stratigraphic studies. Our results also demonstrate that coseismic subsidence decreases inland to negligible values > 25 km from the coast, reflecting the diminishing influence of the earthquake deformation cycle on vertical changes of the interior coastal ranges. More generally, our results demonstrate that debris flow valley networks serve as highly localized, yet broadly distributed indicators of erosion (and rock uplift), making them invaluable for mapping crustal deformation and landscape adjustment. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. Close

• 3. [Article] Multiple Reoccupations after Four Paleotsunami Inundations (0.3–1.3 ka) at a Prehistoric Site in the Netarts Littoral Cell, Northern Oregon Coast, USA

  Netarts Bay is the setting of one of the largest concentrations of late prehistoric Native American settlements on the tectonically active Oregon coast. A prehistoric site (35TI74) exposed by sea cliff ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Multiple Reoccupations after Four Paleotsunami Inundations (0.3–1.3 ka) at a Prehistoric Site in the Netarts Littoral Cell, Northern Oregon Coast, USA Author: Minor, Rick, Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2017 Netarts Bay is the setting of one of the largest concentrations of late prehistoric Native American settlements on the tectonically active Oregon coast. A prehistoric site (35TI74) exposed by sea cliff erosion in 1998 at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell contained a stratigraphic record of activity by prehistoric Native Americans and interbedded paleotsunami deposits. The nearfield paleotsunamis were produced by great Cascadia earthquakes (Mw8.5 ± 0.5) emanating from the Cascadia Subduction Zone offshore, as previously documented in episodically buried tidal marsh surfaces at the south end of Netarts Bay and in many other estuaries in the region. The cultural deposits at 35TI74 reflect multiple reoccupations by Native Americans at this barrage creek flood plain site between paleotsunami runup events (≥7.5 m elevation) at 1.3 ka, 1.1 ka, 0.8–0.9 ka, and 0.3 ka. The conditions that led to the exposure of 35TI74 are traced to erosion of a protective beach dune ramp at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell, placing the site within reach of progressive storm-surf erosion. The diminishing geoarchaeological record at 35TI74 represents a microcosm of the sea cliff erosional processes that threaten vulnerable prehistoric shoreline archaeological sites along much of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Copyright © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Title: Multiple Reoccupations after Four Paleotsunami Inundations (0.3–1.3 ka) at a Prehistoric Site in the Netarts Littoral Cell, Northern Oregon Coast, USA Author: Minor, Rick, Peterson, Curt D. Year: 2017 Netarts Bay is the setting of one of the largest concentrations of late prehistoric Native American settlements on the tectonically active Oregon coast. A prehistoric site (35TI74) exposed by sea cliff erosion in 1998 at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell contained a stratigraphic record of activity by prehistoric Native Americans and interbedded paleotsunami deposits. The nearfield paleotsunamis were produced by great Cascadia earthquakes (Mw8.5 ± 0.5) emanating from the Cascadia Subduction Zone offshore, as previously documented in episodically buried tidal marsh surfaces at the south end of Netarts Bay and in many other estuaries in the region. The cultural deposits at 35TI74 reflect multiple reoccupations by Native Americans at this barrage creek flood plain site between paleotsunami runup events (≥7.5 m elevation) at 1.3 ka, 1.1 ka, 0.8–0.9 ka, and 0.3 ka. The conditions that led to the exposure of 35TI74 are traced to erosion of a protective beach dune ramp at the south end of the Netarts littoral cell, placing the site within reach of progressive storm-surf erosion. The diminishing geoarchaeological record at 35TI74 represents a microcosm of the sea cliff erosional processes that threaten vulnerable prehistoric shoreline archaeological sites along much of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Copyright © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Close

• 4. [Article] Central Cascadia Subduction Zone Creep

  Central Cascadia between 43ºN and 46ºN has reduced interseismic uplift observed in geodetic data and coseismic subsidence seen in multiple thrust earthquakes, suggesting elevated persistent fault creep ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Central Cascadia Subduction Zone Creep Author: Schmalzle, Gina M., McCaffrey, Robert, Creager, Kenneth C. Year: 2014 Central Cascadia between 43ºN and 46ºN has reduced interseismic uplift observed in geodetic data and coseismic subsidence seen in multiple thrust earthquakes, suggesting elevated persistent fault creep in this section of the subduction zone. We estimate subduction thrust "decade-scale" locking and crustal block rotations from three-component continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) time series from 1997 to 2013, as well as 80 year tide gauge and leveling-derived uplift rates. Geodetic observations indicatecoastal central Oregon is rising at a slower rate than coastal Washington, southern Oregon and northern California. Modeled locking distributions suggest a wide locking transition zone that extends inland undercentral Oregon. Paleoseismic records of multiple great earthquakes along Cascadia indicate less subsidence in central Oregon. The Cascade thrust under central Oregon may be partially creeping for at least 6500 years(the length of the paleoseismic record) reducing interseismic uplift and resulting in reduced coseismic subsidence. Large accretions of Eocene age basalt (Siletzia terrane) between 43ºN and 46ºN may be less perme-able compared to surrounding terranes, potentially increasing pore fluid pressures along the fault interface resulting in a wide zone of persistent fault creep. In a separate inversion, three-component GPS time series from 1 July 2005 to 1 January 2011 are used to estimate upper plate deformation, locking between slow-slip events (SSEs), slip from 16 SSEs and an earthquake mechanism. Cumulative SSEs and tectonic tremor are weakest between 43ºN and 46ºN where partial fault creep is increased and Siletzia terrane is thick, suggesting that surrounding rock properties may influence the mode of slip. Title: Central Cascadia Subduction Zone Creep Author: Schmalzle, Gina M., McCaffrey, Robert, Creager, Kenneth C. Year: 2014 Central Cascadia between 43ºN and 46ºN has reduced interseismic uplift observed in geodetic data and coseismic subsidence seen in multiple thrust earthquakes, suggesting elevated persistent fault creep in this section of the subduction zone. We estimate subduction thrust "decade-scale" locking and crustal block rotations from three-component continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) time series from 1997 to 2013, as well as 80 year tide gauge and leveling-derived uplift rates. Geodetic observations indicatecoastal central Oregon is rising at a slower rate than coastal Washington, southern Oregon and northern California. Modeled locking distributions suggest a wide locking transition zone that extends inland undercentral Oregon. Paleoseismic records of multiple great earthquakes along Cascadia indicate less subsidence in central Oregon. The Cascade thrust under central Oregon may be partially creeping for at least 6500 years(the length of the paleoseismic record) reducing interseismic uplift and resulting in reduced coseismic subsidence. Large accretions of Eocene age basalt (Siletzia terrane) between 43ºN and 46ºN may be less perme-able compared to surrounding terranes, potentially increasing pore fluid pressures along the fault interface resulting in a wide zone of persistent fault creep. In a separate inversion, three-component GPS time series from 1 July 2005 to 1 January 2011 are used to estimate upper plate deformation, locking between slow-slip events (SSEs), slip from 16 SSEs and an earthquake mechanism. Cumulative SSEs and tectonic tremor are weakest between 43ºN and 46ºN where partial fault creep is increased and Siletzia terrane is thick, suggesting that surrounding rock properties may influence the mode of slip. Close

• 5. [Article] Melting in the Mantle Wedge: Quantifying the Effects of Crustal Morphology and Viscous Decoupling on Melt Production with Application to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

  Arc magmatism is sustained by the complex interactions between the subducting slab, the overriding plate, and the mantle wedge. Partial melting of mantle peridotite is achieved by fluid-induced flux melting ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Melting in the Mantle Wedge: Quantifying the Effects of Crustal Morphology and Viscous Decoupling on Melt Production with Application to the Cascadia Subduction Zone Author: Yang, Jiaming Year: 2017 Arc magmatism is sustained by the complex interactions between the subducting slab, the overriding plate, and the mantle wedge. Partial melting of mantle peridotite is achieved by fluid-induced flux melting and decompression melting due to upward flow. The distribution of melting is sensitive to temperature, the pattern of flow, and the pressure in the mantle wedge. The arc front is the surface manifestation of partial melting in the mantle wedge and is characterized by a narrow chain of active volcanoes that migrate in time. The conventional interpretation is that changes in slab dip angle lead to changes in the arc front position relative to the trench. We explore an alternative hypothesis: evolution of the overlying plate, specifically thickening of the arc root, causes arc front migration. We investigate the effects of varying crustal morphology and viscous decoupling of the shallow slab-mantle interface on melt production using 2D numerical models involving a stationary overriding plate, a subducting plate with prescribed motion, and a dynamic mantle wedge. Melt production is quantified using a hydrous melting parameterization. We conclude: 1) Localized lithospheric thickening shifts the locus of melt production trenchward while thinning shifts melting landward. 2) Inclined LAB topography modulates the asthenospheric flow field, producing a narrow, well-defined arc front. 3) Thickening of the overriding plate exerts increased torque on the slab, favoring shallowing of the dip angle. 4) Viscous decoupling produces a cold, stagnant forearc mantle but promotes arc front melting due to reduction in the radius of corner flow, leading to higher temperatures at the coupling/decoupling transition. Title: Melting in the Mantle Wedge: Quantifying the Effects of Crustal Morphology and Viscous Decoupling on Melt Production with Application to the Cascadia Subduction Zone Author: Yang, Jiaming Year: 2017 Arc magmatism is sustained by the complex interactions between the subducting slab, the overriding plate, and the mantle wedge. Partial melting of mantle peridotite is achieved by fluid-induced flux melting and decompression melting due to upward flow. The distribution of melting is sensitive to temperature, the pattern of flow, and the pressure in the mantle wedge. The arc front is the surface manifestation of partial melting in the mantle wedge and is characterized by a narrow chain of active volcanoes that migrate in time. The conventional interpretation is that changes in slab dip angle lead to changes in the arc front position relative to the trench. We explore an alternative hypothesis: evolution of the overlying plate, specifically thickening of the arc root, causes arc front migration. We investigate the effects of varying crustal morphology and viscous decoupling of the shallow slab-mantle interface on melt production using 2D numerical models involving a stationary overriding plate, a subducting plate with prescribed motion, and a dynamic mantle wedge. Melt production is quantified using a hydrous melting parameterization. We conclude: 1) Localized lithospheric thickening shifts the locus of melt production trenchward while thinning shifts melting landward. 2) Inclined LAB topography modulates the asthenospheric flow field, producing a narrow, well-defined arc front. 3) Thickening of the overriding plate exerts increased torque on the slab, favoring shallowing of the dip angle. 4) Viscous decoupling produces a cold, stagnant forearc mantle but promotes arc front melting due to reduction in the radius of corner flow, leading to higher temperatures at the coupling/decoupling transition. Close

• 6. [Article] Interseismic Locking on the Hikurangi Subduction Zone: Uncertainties from Slow-Slip Events

  lnterseismic locking on the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand is examined in light of alternative assumed locking distributions and the impact of transients (slow-slip and volcanic sources) on temporal ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Interseismic Locking on the Hikurangi Subduction Zone: Uncertainties from Slow-Slip Events Author: McCaffrey, Robert Year: 2014 lnterseismic locking on the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand is examined in light of alternative assumed locking distributions and the impact of transients (slow-slip and volcanic sources) on temporal and spatial resolution. The modern pattern of locking in the north is poorly resolved and, based on simulations of possible transient behavior, may be an ephemeral feature of the subduction cycle. While there appears to be some contemporary locking in the northern half of the Hikurangi subduction zone (HSZ), its location is model dependent, and hence, its relationship to structure, slow-slip, or any transition zone there is unclear. Simulations of site velocities using the 14 year history of transient events reveal that in the timescale of the interseismic period the northern half of the HSZ could be either locked or unlocked, and this may not be resolvable for decades. In the southern half, there is strong contemporary locking in the 15 to 40 km depth range, but again, the slow-slip history leads to uncertainty in the long-term pattern. Slow-slip events not only reduce the long-term locking by aseismic slip but also greatly hinder our ability to see it. It is within the range of possible models that the slip deficit rate at the HSZ is more uniform along strike, and the modern appearance is controlled by the particular pattern of transients over the past 10 to 20 years when the GPS data were collected. Similarly, uncertainties in surface velocities will be large at any subduction zone with large transients. Title: Interseismic Locking on the Hikurangi Subduction Zone: Uncertainties from Slow-Slip Events Author: McCaffrey, Robert Year: 2014 lnterseismic locking on the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand is examined in light of alternative assumed locking distributions and the impact of transients (slow-slip and volcanic sources) on temporal and spatial resolution. The modern pattern of locking in the north is poorly resolved and, based on simulations of possible transient behavior, may be an ephemeral feature of the subduction cycle. While there appears to be some contemporary locking in the northern half of the Hikurangi subduction zone (HSZ), its location is model dependent, and hence, its relationship to structure, slow-slip, or any transition zone there is unclear. Simulations of site velocities using the 14 year history of transient events reveal that in the timescale of the interseismic period the northern half of the HSZ could be either locked or unlocked, and this may not be resolvable for decades. In the southern half, there is strong contemporary locking in the 15 to 40 km depth range, but again, the slow-slip history leads to uncertainty in the long-term pattern. Slow-slip events not only reduce the long-term locking by aseismic slip but also greatly hinder our ability to see it. It is within the range of possible models that the slip deficit rate at the HSZ is more uniform along strike, and the modern appearance is controlled by the particular pattern of transients over the past 10 to 20 years when the GPS data were collected. Similarly, uncertainties in surface velocities will be large at any subduction zone with large transients. Close

• 7. [Article] Earthquake and Tsunami Forecasts: Relation of Slow Slip Events to Subsequent Earthquake Rupture

  The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Earthquake and Tsunami Forecasts: Relation of Slow Slip Events to Subsequent Earthquake Rupture Author: Dixon, Timothy H., Jiang, Yan, Malservisi, Rocco, McCaffrey, Robert, Voss, Nicholas, Protti, Marino, Gonzalez, Victor Year: 2014 The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. Title: Earthquake and Tsunami Forecasts: Relation of Slow Slip Events to Subsequent Earthquake Rupture Author: Dixon, Timothy H., Jiang, Yan, Malservisi, Rocco, McCaffrey, Robert, Voss, Nicholas, Protti, Marino, Gonzalez, Victor Year: 2014 The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. Close

• 8. [Article] Slow Slip Events and Time-Dependent Variations in Locking Beneath Lower Cook Inlet of the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone

  We identify a series of abrupt changes in GPS site velocities in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, in late 2004, early 2010, and late 2011. The site motions during each time period are nearly linear. The surface ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Slow Slip Events and Time-Dependent Variations in Locking Beneath Lower Cook Inlet of the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone Author: Li, Shanshan, Freymueller, Jeffrey, McCaffrey, Robert Year: 2016 We identify a series of abrupt changes in GPS site velocities in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, in late 2004, early 2010, and late 2011. The site motions during each time period are nearly linear. The surface deformations inferred from GPS for pre-2004 and 2010–2011 are similar to each other, as are 2004–2010 and post-2011. We estimate the slip distribution on the Alaska-Aleutian subduction plate interface accounting for upper plate block rotations and interpret this toggling between two deformation patterns as caused by transient slip. We find that by allowing negative slip deficit rates (i.e., creep rates in excess of relative plate motion), the data in Lower Cook Inlet are fit significantly better during pre-2004 and 2010–2011, suggesting the occurrence of slow slip events (SSEs) there during those time periods. The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years (observations in that area began in 1995) with Mw ~7.8. The latter SSE had almost the same area as the earlier one and a duration of ~2 years with Mw ~7.2. During 2004–2010 and post-2011, the inversions result in only positive slip deficit rates (i.e., locking) in Lower Cook Inlet. Slip rates are nearly constant during the Lower Cook Inlet SSEs, and the events start and stop abruptly. Both of these properties contrast with observations of SSEs in Upper Cook Inlet and elsewhere. The Lower Cook Inlet SSEs are consistent with previously proposed duration-magnitude scaling laws and demonstrate that slow slip events can last as long as a decade. Title: Slow Slip Events and Time-Dependent Variations in Locking Beneath Lower Cook Inlet of the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone Author: Li, Shanshan, Freymueller, Jeffrey, McCaffrey, Robert Year: 2016 We identify a series of abrupt changes in GPS site velocities in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, in late 2004, early 2010, and late 2011. The site motions during each time period are nearly linear. The surface deformations inferred from GPS for pre-2004 and 2010–2011 are similar to each other, as are 2004–2010 and post-2011. We estimate the slip distribution on the Alaska-Aleutian subduction plate interface accounting for upper plate block rotations and interpret this toggling between two deformation patterns as caused by transient slip. We find that by allowing negative slip deficit rates (i.e., creep rates in excess of relative plate motion), the data in Lower Cook Inlet are fit significantly better during pre-2004 and 2010–2011, suggesting the occurrence of slow slip events (SSEs) there during those time periods. The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years (observations in that area began in 1995) with Mw ~7.8. The latter SSE had almost the same area as the earlier one and a duration of ~2 years with Mw ~7.2. During 2004–2010 and post-2011, the inversions result in only positive slip deficit rates (i.e., locking) in Lower Cook Inlet. Slip rates are nearly constant during the Lower Cook Inlet SSEs, and the events start and stop abruptly. Both of these properties contrast with observations of SSEs in Upper Cook Inlet and elsewhere. The Lower Cook Inlet SSEs are consistent with previously proposed duration-magnitude scaling laws and demonstrate that slow slip events can last as long as a decade. Close

• 9. [Article] GPS Constraints on the Mw = 7.5 Ometepec Earthquake Sequence, Southern Mexico: Coseismic and Post-Seismic Deformation

  We use continuous GPS measurements from 31 stations in southernMexico to model coseismic slip and post-seismic deformation from the 2012 March 20 Mw = 7.5 Ometepec earthquake, the first large thrust earthquake ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: GPS Constraints on the Mw = 7.5 Ometepec Earthquake Sequence, Southern Mexico: Coseismic and Post-Seismic Deformation Author: Graham, Shannon E., DeMets, Charles, Cabral-Cano, Enrique, Kostoglodov, Vladimir, Walpersdorf, Andrea, Cotte, Nathalie, Brudzinski, Michael, McCaffrey, Robert, Salazar-Tlaczani, Luis Year: 2014 We use continuous GPS measurements from 31 stations in southernMexico to model coseismic slip and post-seismic deformation from the 2012 March 20 Mw = 7.5 Ometepec earthquake, the first large thrust earthquake to occur below central Mexico during the modern GPS era. Coseismic offsets ranging from ∼280 mm near the epicentre to 5 mm or less at sites far from the epicentre are fit best by a rupture focused between ∼15 and 35 km depth, consistent with an independent seismological estimate. The corresponding geodetic moment of 1.4 × 1020 N·m is within 10 per cent of two independent seismic estimates. Transient post-seismic motion recorded by GPS sites as far as 300 km from the rupture has a different horizontal deformation gradient and opposite sense of vertical motion than do the coseismic offsets. A forward model of viscoelastic relaxation as a result of our new coseismic slip solution incorrectly predicts uplift in areas where post-seismic subsidence was recorded and indicates that viscoelastic deformation was no more than a few per cent of the measured post-seismic deformation. The deformation within 6 months of the earthquake was thus strongly dominated by fault afterslip. The post-seismic GPS time-series are well fit as logarithmically decaying fault afterslip on an area of the subduction interface up to 10 times larger than the earthquake rupture zone, extending as far as 220 km inland. Afterslip had a cumulative geodetic moment of 2.0 × 1020 N·m, ∼40 per cent larger than the Ometepec earthquake. Tests for the shallow and deep limits for the afterslip require that it included much of the earthquake rupture zone as well as regions of the subduction interface where slow slip events and non-volcanic tremor have been recorded and areas even farther downdip on the flat interface. Widespread afterslip below much of central Mexico suggests that most of the nearly flat subduction interface in this region is conditionally stable and thus contributes measurable transient deformation to large areas of Mexico south of and in the volcanic belt. Title: GPS Constraints on the Mw = 7.5 Ometepec Earthquake Sequence, Southern Mexico: Coseismic and Post-Seismic Deformation Author: Graham, Shannon E., DeMets, Charles, Cabral-Cano, Enrique, Kostoglodov, Vladimir, Walpersdorf, Andrea, Cotte, Nathalie, Brudzinski, Michael, McCaffrey, Robert, Salazar-Tlaczani, Luis Year: 2014 We use continuous GPS measurements from 31 stations in southernMexico to model coseismic slip and post-seismic deformation from the 2012 March 20 Mw = 7.5 Ometepec earthquake, the first large thrust earthquake to occur below central Mexico during the modern GPS era. Coseismic offsets ranging from ∼280 mm near the epicentre to 5 mm or less at sites far from the epicentre are fit best by a rupture focused between ∼15 and 35 km depth, consistent with an independent seismological estimate. The corresponding geodetic moment of 1.4 × 1020 N·m is within 10 per cent of two independent seismic estimates. Transient post-seismic motion recorded by GPS sites as far as 300 km from the rupture has a different horizontal deformation gradient and opposite sense of vertical motion than do the coseismic offsets. A forward model of viscoelastic relaxation as a result of our new coseismic slip solution incorrectly predicts uplift in areas where post-seismic subsidence was recorded and indicates that viscoelastic deformation was no more than a few per cent of the measured post-seismic deformation. The deformation within 6 months of the earthquake was thus strongly dominated by fault afterslip. The post-seismic GPS time-series are well fit as logarithmically decaying fault afterslip on an area of the subduction interface up to 10 times larger than the earthquake rupture zone, extending as far as 220 km inland. Afterslip had a cumulative geodetic moment of 2.0 × 1020 N·m, ∼40 per cent larger than the Ometepec earthquake. Tests for the shallow and deep limits for the afterslip require that it included much of the earthquake rupture zone as well as regions of the subduction interface where slow slip events and non-volcanic tremor have been recorded and areas even farther downdip on the flat interface. Widespread afterslip below much of central Mexico suggests that most of the nearly flat subduction interface in this region is conditionally stable and thus contributes measurable transient deformation to large areas of Mexico south of and in the volcanic belt. Close