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• 11. [Article] Reduced Snow Cover Alters Root-microbe Interactions and Decreases Nitrification Rates in a Northern Hardwood Forest

  Snow cover is projected to decline during the next century in many ecosystems that currently experience a seasonal snowpack. Because snow insulates soils from frigid winter air temperatures, soils are ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Reduced Snow Cover Alters Root-microbe Interactions and Decreases Nitrification Rates in a Northern Hardwood Forest Author: Sorensen, Patrick O., Templer, Pamela H., Christenson, Lynn M., Durán, Jorge, Fahey, Timothy J., Fisk, Melany C., Groffman, Peter M., Morse, Jennifer L., Finzi, Adrien C. Year: 2016 Snow cover is projected to decline during the next century in many ecosystems that currently experience a seasonal snowpack. Because snow insulates soils from frigid winter air temperatures, soils are expected to become colder and experience more winter soil freeze-thaw cycles as snow cover continues to decline. Tree roots are adversely affected by snowpack reduction, but whether loss of snow will affect root-microbe interactions remains largely unknown. The objective of this study was to distinguish and attribute direct (e.g., winter snow-and/ or soil frost-mediated) vs. indirect (e.g., root-mediated) effects of winter climate change on microbial biomass, the potential activity of microbial exoenzymes, and net N mineralization and nitrification rates. Soil cores were incubated in situ in nylon mesh that either allowed roots to grow into the soil core (2 mm pore size) or excluded root ingrowth (50 μm pore size) for up to 29 months along a natural winter climate gradient at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH (USA). Microbial biomass did not differ among ingrowth or exclusion cores. Across sampling dates, the potential activities of cellobiohydrolase, phenol oxidase, and peroxidase, and net N mineralization rates were more strongly related to soil volumetric water content (P < 0.05; R2 = 0.25–0.46) than to root biomass, snow or soil frost, or winter soil temperature (R2 < 0.10). Root ingrowth was positively related to soil frost (P < 0.01; R2 = 0.28), suggesting that trees compensate for overwinter root mortality caused by soil freezing by re-allocating resources towards root production. At the sites with the deepest snow cover, root ingrowth reduced nitrification rates by 30% (P < 0.01), showing that tree roots exert significant influence over nitrification, which declines with reduced snow cover. If soil freezing intensifies over time, then greater compensatory root growth may reduce nitrification rates directly via plant-microbe N competition and indirectly through a negative feedback on soil moisture, resulting in lower N availability to trees in northern hardwood forests. Title: Reduced Snow Cover Alters Root-microbe Interactions and Decreases Nitrification Rates in a Northern Hardwood Forest Author: Sorensen, Patrick O., Templer, Pamela H., Christenson, Lynn M., Durán, Jorge, Fahey, Timothy J., Fisk, Melany C., Groffman, Peter M., Morse, Jennifer L., Finzi, Adrien C. Year: 2016 Snow cover is projected to decline during the next century in many ecosystems that currently experience a seasonal snowpack. Because snow insulates soils from frigid winter air temperatures, soils are expected to become colder and experience more winter soil freeze-thaw cycles as snow cover continues to decline. Tree roots are adversely affected by snowpack reduction, but whether loss of snow will affect root-microbe interactions remains largely unknown. The objective of this study was to distinguish and attribute direct (e.g., winter snow-and/ or soil frost-mediated) vs. indirect (e.g., root-mediated) effects of winter climate change on microbial biomass, the potential activity of microbial exoenzymes, and net N mineralization and nitrification rates. Soil cores were incubated in situ in nylon mesh that either allowed roots to grow into the soil core (2 mm pore size) or excluded root ingrowth (50 μm pore size) for up to 29 months along a natural winter climate gradient at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH (USA). Microbial biomass did not differ among ingrowth or exclusion cores. Across sampling dates, the potential activities of cellobiohydrolase, phenol oxidase, and peroxidase, and net N mineralization rates were more strongly related to soil volumetric water content (P < 0.05; R2 = 0.25–0.46) than to root biomass, snow or soil frost, or winter soil temperature (R2 < 0.10). Root ingrowth was positively related to soil frost (P < 0.01; R2 = 0.28), suggesting that trees compensate for overwinter root mortality caused by soil freezing by re-allocating resources towards root production. At the sites with the deepest snow cover, root ingrowth reduced nitrification rates by 30% (P < 0.01), showing that tree roots exert significant influence over nitrification, which declines with reduced snow cover. If soil freezing intensifies over time, then greater compensatory root growth may reduce nitrification rates directly via plant-microbe N competition and indirectly through a negative feedback on soil moisture, resulting in lower N availability to trees in northern hardwood forests. Close

• 12. [Article] Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin Using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

  This study provides an analysis of watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts, to better understand the hydrologic budget and inform water management decisions for present and future ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin Using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System Author: Yazzie, Kimberly Crystal Year: 2016 This study provides an analysis of watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts, to better understand the hydrologic budget and inform water management decisions for present and future needs. The study site is 2,365 km2, located in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB) in northeastern Oregon. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, a distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model, was used in this study. Model calibration yielded a Nash Sutcliffe Model Efficiency of 0.73 for both calibration (1995-2010) and validation (2010-2014) of daily streamflow. Ten Global Climate Models using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP), were used to observe hydrologic regime shifts in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Mean center timing of flow occurs earlier in the year in both pre- and post-fire conditions, where there are increased winter flows and decreased summer flows throughout the 21st century. Change in temperature and percent change in precipitation is more variable in the summer than winter increasing over time, with a slight decrease in winter precipitation in the 2080s in RCP 8.5. Temperature increases 1.6°C in RCP 4.5 and 3.3°C in RCP 8.5 by the end of the 21st century. The ratio of Snow Water Equivalent to Precipitation decreases 96% in the 2080s in RCP 8.5 before forest cover reduction, and decreases 90-99% after forest cover reduction. Potential basin recharge and the base-flow index are both sustained throughout the 21st century with slight declines before forest cover reduction, with an increase in basin recharge and increase in base-flows in the 2080s after fire-burns. However, the simulated sustained base-flows and area-weighted basin recharge in this study, do not take into account the complex geologic structure of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). A more robust characterization and simulation of URB aquifer recharge would involve coupling the PRMS model with a groundwater model in a future study. Although groundwater recharge in the CRBG in the URB is not well understood, the long-term decline of groundwater storage presents a serious environmental challenge for the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation and communities in the URB. Title: Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin Using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System Author: Yazzie, Kimberly Crystal Year: 2016 This study provides an analysis of watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts, to better understand the hydrologic budget and inform water management decisions for present and future needs. The study site is 2,365 km2, located in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB) in northeastern Oregon. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, a distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model, was used in this study. Model calibration yielded a Nash Sutcliffe Model Efficiency of 0.73 for both calibration (1995-2010) and validation (2010-2014) of daily streamflow. Ten Global Climate Models using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP), were used to observe hydrologic regime shifts in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Mean center timing of flow occurs earlier in the year in both pre- and post-fire conditions, where there are increased winter flows and decreased summer flows throughout the 21st century. Change in temperature and percent change in precipitation is more variable in the summer than winter increasing over time, with a slight decrease in winter precipitation in the 2080s in RCP 8.5. Temperature increases 1.6°C in RCP 4.5 and 3.3°C in RCP 8.5 by the end of the 21st century. The ratio of Snow Water Equivalent to Precipitation decreases 96% in the 2080s in RCP 8.5 before forest cover reduction, and decreases 90-99% after forest cover reduction. Potential basin recharge and the base-flow index are both sustained throughout the 21st century with slight declines before forest cover reduction, with an increase in basin recharge and increase in base-flows in the 2080s after fire-burns. However, the simulated sustained base-flows and area-weighted basin recharge in this study, do not take into account the complex geologic structure of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). A more robust characterization and simulation of URB aquifer recharge would involve coupling the PRMS model with a groundwater model in a future study. Although groundwater recharge in the CRBG in the URB is not well understood, the long-term decline of groundwater storage presents a serious environmental challenge for the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation and communities in the URB. Close

• 13. [Article] Gas Transfer Velocities in Small Forested Ponds

  Inland waters actively exchange gases with the atmosphere, and the gas exchange rate informs system biogeochemistry, ecology, and global carbon budgets. Gas exchange in medium- to large-sized lakes is ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gas Transfer Velocities in Small Forested Ponds Author: Holgerson, Meredith A., Farr, Emily R., Raymond, Peter A. Year: 2017 Inland waters actively exchange gases with the atmosphere, and the gas exchange rate informs system biogeochemistry, ecology, and global carbon budgets. Gas exchange in medium- to large-sized lakes is largely regulated by wind; yet less is known about processes regulating gas transfer in small ponds where wind speeds are low. In this study, we determined the gas transfer velocity, k600, in four small ( < 250 m2 ) ponds by using a propane ( C3H8 ) gas injection. When estimated across 12 h periods, the average k600 ranged from 0.19 to 0.72 m d-1 across the ponds. We also estimated k600 at 2 to 3 h intervals during the day and evaluated the relationship with environmental conditions. The average daytime k600 ranged from 0.33 to 1.83 m d-1 across the ponds and was best predicted by wind speed and air or air-water temperature; however, the explanatory power was weak (R2 < 0.27) with high variability within and among ponds. To compare our results to larger water bodies, we compiled direct measurements of k600 from 67 ponds and lakes worldwide. Our k600 estimates were within the range of estimates for other small ponds, and variability in k600 increased with lake size. However, the majority of studies were conducted on medium-sized lakes (0.01 to 1 km2), leaving small ponds and large lakes understudied. Overall, this study adds four small ponds to the existing body of research on gas transfer velocities from inland waters and highlights uncertainty in k600, with implications for calculating metabolism and carbon emissions in inland waters. Title: Gas Transfer Velocities in Small Forested Ponds Author: Holgerson, Meredith A., Farr, Emily R., Raymond, Peter A. Year: 2017 Inland waters actively exchange gases with the atmosphere, and the gas exchange rate informs system biogeochemistry, ecology, and global carbon budgets. Gas exchange in medium- to large-sized lakes is largely regulated by wind; yet less is known about processes regulating gas transfer in small ponds where wind speeds are low. In this study, we determined the gas transfer velocity, k600, in four small ( < 250 m2 ) ponds by using a propane ( C3H8 ) gas injection. When estimated across 12 h periods, the average k600 ranged from 0.19 to 0.72 m d-1 across the ponds. We also estimated k600 at 2 to 3 h intervals during the day and evaluated the relationship with environmental conditions. The average daytime k600 ranged from 0.33 to 1.83 m d-1 across the ponds and was best predicted by wind speed and air or air-water temperature; however, the explanatory power was weak (R2 < 0.27) with high variability within and among ponds. To compare our results to larger water bodies, we compiled direct measurements of k600 from 67 ponds and lakes worldwide. Our k600 estimates were within the range of estimates for other small ponds, and variability in k600 increased with lake size. However, the majority of studies were conducted on medium-sized lakes (0.01 to 1 km2), leaving small ponds and large lakes understudied. Overall, this study adds four small ponds to the existing body of research on gas transfer velocities from inland waters and highlights uncertainty in k600, with implications for calculating metabolism and carbon emissions in inland waters. Close

• 14. [Article] Fire Modulates Climate Change Response of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients in a Semi-Arid Montane Landscape

  Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Fire Modulates Climate Change Response of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients in a Semi-Arid Montane Landscape Author: Yang, Jian, Weisberg, Peter J., Shinneman, Douglas J., Dilts, Thomas E., Earnst, Susan L., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LAN DIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5ºC increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales. Title: Fire Modulates Climate Change Response of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients in a Semi-Arid Montane Landscape Author: Yang, Jian, Weisberg, Peter J., Shinneman, Douglas J., Dilts, Thomas E., Earnst, Susan L., Scheller, Robert M. Year: 2015 Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LAN DIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5ºC increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales. Close

• 15. [Article] Evaluating Simplistic Methods to Understand Current Distributions and Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor coypus)

  Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Evaluating Simplistic Methods to Understand Current Distributions and Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor coypus) Author: Jarnevich, Catherine S., Young, Nicholas E., Sheffels, Trevor R., Carter, Jacoby, Sytsma, Mark D., Talbert, Colin Year: 2017 Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions. Title: Evaluating Simplistic Methods to Understand Current Distributions and Forecast Distribution Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios: An Example With Coypu (Myocastor coypus) Author: Jarnevich, Catherine S., Young, Nicholas E., Sheffels, Trevor R., Carter, Jacoby, Sytsma, Mark D., Talbert, Colin Year: 2017 Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions. Close

• 16. [Article] Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest

  Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Title: Forest Management Scenarios in a Changing Climate: Trade-Offs Between Carbon, Timber, and Old Forest Author: Scheller, Robert M., Creutzburg, Megan K., Lucash, Melissa S., LeDuc, Stephen D., Johnson, Mark G. Year: 2017 Balancing economic, ecological, and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale trade-offs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30–41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11–15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the trade-offs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. Close

• 17. [Article] Effect of Reducing Maximum Cycle Length on Roadside Air Quality and Travel Times on a Corridor in Portland, OR

  The Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS), an adaptive signal system designed to reduce congestion, has been installed on a heavily trafficked roadway in Portland, OR. In addition to traffic ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Effect of Reducing Maximum Cycle Length on Roadside Air Quality and Travel Times on a Corridor in Portland, OR Author: Kendrick, Christine M., Urowsky, David, Rotich, Willie, Koonce, Peter, George, Linda Acha Year: 2014 The Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS), an adaptive signal system designed to reduce congestion, has been installed on a heavily trafficked roadway in Portland, OR. In addition to traffic performance metrics, we are investigating how this system affects roadway emissions of air pollutants. A twenty-second reduction to maximum cycle length was proposed for the SCATS system to address pedestrian delay concerns. A two-week trial period with this reduced cycle length was implemented. Travel times and roadside air pollution concentrations were monitored throughout this study period and compared to before and after periods with the current maximum cycle length. Average travel times were found to be significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length, but with a mean difference of only 4-5 seconds for travel time. Assessment of travel time for this roadway suggests that a twenty second decrease in maximum cycle length to help shorten pedestrian delay can be made without significant consequences to travel time. Total traffic volumes were consistent for all four weeks of the study. Meteorological conditions were similar for the first two weeks comparing maximum cycle lengths. A shift in ambient temperature led the second two weeks of the cycle length comparison to have more similar meteorological conditions versus the first two weeks. Average NO and NO2 concentrations were not significantly different for the first half of the study. However, NO and NO2 concentrations were significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length for the second half of the study. When there was a significant difference based on t-test statistics, the measurements did show an increase in roadside concentrations during the shorter maximum cycle length. Preliminary results are unclear if changes to air quality (as assessed by NO and NO2 concentrations) occur or not due to the reduced maximum cycle length. Results require further comparative analysis in which meteorology and traffic conditions are controlled for so that any difference in air quality due to maximum cycle length alone can be quantified. Title: Effect of Reducing Maximum Cycle Length on Roadside Air Quality and Travel Times on a Corridor in Portland, OR Author: Kendrick, Christine M., Urowsky, David, Rotich, Willie, Koonce, Peter, George, Linda Acha Year: 2014 The Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS), an adaptive signal system designed to reduce congestion, has been installed on a heavily trafficked roadway in Portland, OR. In addition to traffic performance metrics, we are investigating how this system affects roadway emissions of air pollutants. A twenty-second reduction to maximum cycle length was proposed for the SCATS system to address pedestrian delay concerns. A two-week trial period with this reduced cycle length was implemented. Travel times and roadside air pollution concentrations were monitored throughout this study period and compared to before and after periods with the current maximum cycle length. Average travel times were found to be significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length, but with a mean difference of only 4-5 seconds for travel time. Assessment of travel time for this roadway suggests that a twenty second decrease in maximum cycle length to help shorten pedestrian delay can be made without significant consequences to travel time. Total traffic volumes were consistent for all four weeks of the study. Meteorological conditions were similar for the first two weeks comparing maximum cycle lengths. A shift in ambient temperature led the second two weeks of the cycle length comparison to have more similar meteorological conditions versus the first two weeks. Average NO and NO2 concentrations were not significantly different for the first half of the study. However, NO and NO2 concentrations were significantly higher during the reduced maximum cycle length for the second half of the study. When there was a significant difference based on t-test statistics, the measurements did show an increase in roadside concentrations during the shorter maximum cycle length. Preliminary results are unclear if changes to air quality (as assessed by NO and NO2 concentrations) occur or not due to the reduced maximum cycle length. Results require further comparative analysis in which meteorology and traffic conditions are controlled for so that any difference in air quality due to maximum cycle length alone can be quantified. Close

• 18. [Article] A Landscape Approach to Determining and Predicting Juvenile Coho Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i>) Movement Timing and Growth Patterns Prior to Ocean Entry

  Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) rely on unique habitats during the winter season, which may dictate how much individuals may grow and when migration from freshwater rearing habitat to the ocean occurs. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: A Landscape Approach to Determining and Predicting Juvenile Coho Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i>) Movement Timing and Growth Patterns Prior to Ocean Entry Author: Johnson, Amelia Lee Year: 2016 Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) rely on unique habitats during the winter season, which may dictate how much individuals may grow and when migration from freshwater rearing habitat to the ocean occurs. Here I analyze movement timing and growth patterns for coho salmon through a field-based study and a literature review. For the field portion, I examined hatchery-stocked juvenile coho salmon across four stream basins in the Russian River watershed, California to determine the relative importance of climate, landscape, and fish size metrics in predicting movement and growth patterns over a winter rearing and spring smolt outmigration time period (December 2014-June 2015). I observed three unique movement strategies: winter parr movement, spring smolt movement, and inter-tributary movement. Movement was predicted in relation to daily temperature and precipitation, followed by in-stream and upslope basin conditions in random forest modeling. Specifically, fish that moved later were associated with basins that contained higher productivity and low-gradient floodplain habitats, while fish that moved earlier came from streams that lacked invertebrate prey and had limited low-gradient rearing habitat. Fish size and timing of movement were the primary predictors of growth, with relatively larger fish in the spring growing faster than fish that were relatively smaller prior to winter. These relationships suggest that hatchery-release fish are still highly influenced by environmental conditions once released, especially in terms of initial seasonal movement, and that watershed conditions should be considered when utilizing hatchery-rearing programs to supplement wild fish populations. In North America, coho salmon populations are distributed from Alaska through California, and may exhibit unique movement and growth patterns in relationship to population-scale vulnerability (Endangered Species Act listing), basin area, and availability and types of rearing habitat. For the second part of my thesis, I conducted a literature review to assess what factors are commonly considered in predicting movement and growth patterns for these fish, as well as the types (season and life stage) and number of movement strategies reported. Eighteen studies were summarized, of which sixteen identified unique movement strategies, ranging from one to four. Despite a wide range of basin areas and latitudes, winter parr and spring smolt movements were commonly observed, with authors primarily relating these behaviors to in-stream habitat and fish size metrics. Additionally, growth was linked positively and primarily with off-channel winter rearing, which may outweigh the importance of fish size in predicting growth when high quality rearing habitats are available during the winter season. Recognizing movement timing diversity and its drivers can help recover threatened coho salmon populations. More widely distributed populations may have unique phenotypic expressions based on localized genetic and environmental interactions, increasing diversity and overall stability across the population, a concept known as the portfolio effect. Understanding fish-habitat relationships can aid recovery efforts by providing a framework of climatic and watershed conditions that support unique behaviors, even in already severely limited populations. Title: A Landscape Approach to Determining and Predicting Juvenile Coho Salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus kisutch</i>) Movement Timing and Growth Patterns Prior to Ocean Entry Author: Johnson, Amelia Lee Year: 2016 Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) rely on unique habitats during the winter season, which may dictate how much individuals may grow and when migration from freshwater rearing habitat to the ocean occurs. Here I analyze movement timing and growth patterns for coho salmon through a field-based study and a literature review. For the field portion, I examined hatchery-stocked juvenile coho salmon across four stream basins in the Russian River watershed, California to determine the relative importance of climate, landscape, and fish size metrics in predicting movement and growth patterns over a winter rearing and spring smolt outmigration time period (December 2014-June 2015). I observed three unique movement strategies: winter parr movement, spring smolt movement, and inter-tributary movement. Movement was predicted in relation to daily temperature and precipitation, followed by in-stream and upslope basin conditions in random forest modeling. Specifically, fish that moved later were associated with basins that contained higher productivity and low-gradient floodplain habitats, while fish that moved earlier came from streams that lacked invertebrate prey and had limited low-gradient rearing habitat. Fish size and timing of movement were the primary predictors of growth, with relatively larger fish in the spring growing faster than fish that were relatively smaller prior to winter. These relationships suggest that hatchery-release fish are still highly influenced by environmental conditions once released, especially in terms of initial seasonal movement, and that watershed conditions should be considered when utilizing hatchery-rearing programs to supplement wild fish populations. In North America, coho salmon populations are distributed from Alaska through California, and may exhibit unique movement and growth patterns in relationship to population-scale vulnerability (Endangered Species Act listing), basin area, and availability and types of rearing habitat. For the second part of my thesis, I conducted a literature review to assess what factors are commonly considered in predicting movement and growth patterns for these fish, as well as the types (season and life stage) and number of movement strategies reported. Eighteen studies were summarized, of which sixteen identified unique movement strategies, ranging from one to four. Despite a wide range of basin areas and latitudes, winter parr and spring smolt movements were commonly observed, with authors primarily relating these behaviors to in-stream habitat and fish size metrics. Additionally, growth was linked positively and primarily with off-channel winter rearing, which may outweigh the importance of fish size in predicting growth when high quality rearing habitats are available during the winter season. Recognizing movement timing diversity and its drivers can help recover threatened coho salmon populations. More widely distributed populations may have unique phenotypic expressions based on localized genetic and environmental interactions, increasing diversity and overall stability across the population, a concept known as the portfolio effect. Understanding fish-habitat relationships can aid recovery efforts by providing a framework of climatic and watershed conditions that support unique behaviors, even in already severely limited populations. Close

• 19. [Article] Responses of Aquatic Non-Native Species to Novel Predator Cues and Increased Mortality

  Lethal biotic interactions strongly influence the potential for aquatic non-native species to establish and endure in habitats to which they are introduced. Predators in the recipient area, including native ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Responses of Aquatic Non-Native Species to Novel Predator Cues and Increased Mortality Author: Turner, Brian Christopher Year: 2017 Lethal biotic interactions strongly influence the potential for aquatic non-native species to establish and endure in habitats to which they are introduced. Predators in the recipient area, including native and previously established non-native predators, can prevent establishment, limit habitat use, and reduce abundance of non-native species. Management efforts by humans using methods designed to cause mass mortality (e.g., trapping, biocide applications) can reduce or eradicate non-native populations. However, the impacts of predator and human induced mortality may be mitigated by the behavior or population-level responses of a given non-native species. My dissertation examined the responses of non-native aquatic species to the risk of predation by novel (i.e., no previous exposure) predators in the recipient community and indicators of potential compensatory responses by non-native populations to increased mortality resulting from removal efforts. My dissertation addresses four primary questions. 1) Can first generation, naïve invaders recognize and defend against predators found within the region of invasion through the expression of inducible defenses? 2) Can the overcompensatory potential of a population be predicted though examinations of intraspecific interactions of individuals from the population? 3) What is the relationship between removal effort outcome (i.e., successful or unsuccessful reduction of the target population) and compensatory population responses? 4) Is there a relationship between characteristics of removal efforts that are typically available to managers (e.g., target area size, target area connectivity, removal methodology) and compensatory population responses that could indicate the relative likelihood of compensation resulting from removal efforts? An invading species should be more likely to establish if it can successfully identify and defend against predators in the recipient range, such as through the expression of inducible defenses. Inducible defenses are behavioral or physiological changes that reduce an organism's susceptibility to predation. Through a series of laboratory experiments, I tested whether inducible defenses, in the form of increased burrowing depth, may have benefited the early stage of invasion of Nuttallia obscurata (purple varnish clam), an established Northeast Pacific invader. Specimens of N. obscurata were collected from introduced populations in the Northeast Pacific and from a native population in Japan. The clams were exposed to chemical and physical cues from Northeast Pacific crab predators, including the native Metacarcinus magister (Dungeness crab), an abundant and frequent predator of N. obscurata. While introduced N. obscurata increased their burrowing depth in the physical presence of M. magister, clams collected from their native range showed no such response. This lack of increased burrowing depth by naïve clams in response to a predator native to the newly invaded range, but a significant increase in depth for clams from populations established in the range suggests that while inducible defenses likely did not contribute to the initial establishment of N. obscurata in the Northeast Pacific, they may contribute to their continued persistence and expansion in their introduced range. Some efforts to reduce invasive populations have paradoxically led to population increases. This phenomenon, referred to as overcompensation, occurs when strong negative density-dependent interactions are reduced through increased mortality within a population, resulting in an increase in the population's recruitment rate sufficient to increase the population's overall abundance. Increases in a population's recruitment rate can result from reduced cannibalism of juveniles resulting in lower mortality of new recruits, from increased adult reproductive output, which increases the number of potential recruits, or from reductions in size and/or age at maturity of the unharvested population, which increases the number of reproductive individuals. I predicted the overcompensatory potential of a population of Carcinus maenas (European green crab) in Bodega Harbor, California, using a series of laboratory and field experiments examining intraspecific pressures of adults on juveniles in the population. This measure of intraspecific pressure was used to predict the overcompensatory potential of the population in response to increased mortality from ongoing removal efforts. This prediction was then assessed using pre- and post-removal surveys of juvenile recruitment in Bodega Harbor compared to nearby populations, testing for evidence of overcompensation. While adult C. maenas in Bodega Harbor had limited negative impacts on juveniles, I concluded it was unlikely to result in overcompensation. Relative juvenile abundance did not statistically increase in removal compared to reference populations, consistent with my conclusion from the experiments. Increases in recruitment rates can occur as a result of efforts to remove non-native species. This increase in recruitment can result in overcompensation, but more commonly results in compensation, where recruitment rates increase relative to pre-removal recruitment but does not result in in the population's abundance exceeding pre-removal levels. However, a detailed and accurate prediction of the response of a population to harvest is time consuming and data intensive. This is not feasible for most efforts to eradicate non-native species, which have the greatest chance of success when enacted rapidly after detection. For my final chapter, I performed a literature review and accompanying statistical analysis to determine if typically available information related to the removal effort (site size, site connectivity, and removal technique) could be used to determine increased risk of compensation for a given effort to remove aquatic invasive species. Compensation was closely linked to unsuccessful removal efforts and was observed only among efforts utilizing physical removal methods. However, the frequency with which compensation occurred varied with the exact technique employed, occurring most frequently in removal utilizing electrofishing. Additionally, evidence of compensation was more frequent among larger removal areas with variable connectivity. While other predictors (temperature, effort, etc) might add to the predicative power, the findings of the review provide criteria for managers to determine the relative risk of compensation prior to the start of removal. Further understanding of how invasive species respond to lethal biotic interactions, including anthropogenically mediated control measures, can aid in assessing the risk of invasion for a given species and inform managers of the risk of complications resulting from removal efforts. While inducible defenses may contribute to the long-term success of an introduced species in their recipient range, my findings did not support the idea that inducible defenses triggered by predator cues contributed to their initial introduction in this case. However, research on other non-native species and offspring of previously naïve prey would allow for a clearer picture of the role of inducible defenses in the invasion process. Compensation resulting from removal efforts does not guarantee failure, and certain characteristics of removal efforts seem to indicate increased risk of compensation. Together these components help identify how biotic interactions surrounding mortality risk of an invading species help shape the trajectory of invasion. Title: Responses of Aquatic Non-Native Species to Novel Predator Cues and Increased Mortality Author: Turner, Brian Christopher Year: 2017 Lethal biotic interactions strongly influence the potential for aquatic non-native species to establish and endure in habitats to which they are introduced. Predators in the recipient area, including native and previously established non-native predators, can prevent establishment, limit habitat use, and reduce abundance of non-native species. Management efforts by humans using methods designed to cause mass mortality (e.g., trapping, biocide applications) can reduce or eradicate non-native populations. However, the impacts of predator and human induced mortality may be mitigated by the behavior or population-level responses of a given non-native species. My dissertation examined the responses of non-native aquatic species to the risk of predation by novel (i.e., no previous exposure) predators in the recipient community and indicators of potential compensatory responses by non-native populations to increased mortality resulting from removal efforts. My dissertation addresses four primary questions. 1) Can first generation, naïve invaders recognize and defend against predators found within the region of invasion through the expression of inducible defenses? 2) Can the overcompensatory potential of a population be predicted though examinations of intraspecific interactions of individuals from the population? 3) What is the relationship between removal effort outcome (i.e., successful or unsuccessful reduction of the target population) and compensatory population responses? 4) Is there a relationship between characteristics of removal efforts that are typically available to managers (e.g., target area size, target area connectivity, removal methodology) and compensatory population responses that could indicate the relative likelihood of compensation resulting from removal efforts? An invading species should be more likely to establish if it can successfully identify and defend against predators in the recipient range, such as through the expression of inducible defenses. Inducible defenses are behavioral or physiological changes that reduce an organism's susceptibility to predation. Through a series of laboratory experiments, I tested whether inducible defenses, in the form of increased burrowing depth, may have benefited the early stage of invasion of Nuttallia obscurata (purple varnish clam), an established Northeast Pacific invader. Specimens of N. obscurata were collected from introduced populations in the Northeast Pacific and from a native population in Japan. The clams were exposed to chemical and physical cues from Northeast Pacific crab predators, including the native Metacarcinus magister (Dungeness crab), an abundant and frequent predator of N. obscurata. While introduced N. obscurata increased their burrowing depth in the physical presence of M. magister, clams collected from their native range showed no such response. This lack of increased burrowing depth by naïve clams in response to a predator native to the newly invaded range, but a significant increase in depth for clams from populations established in the range suggests that while inducible defenses likely did not contribute to the initial establishment of N. obscurata in the Northeast Pacific, they may contribute to their continued persistence and expansion in their introduced range. Some efforts to reduce invasive populations have paradoxically led to population increases. This phenomenon, referred to as overcompensation, occurs when strong negative density-dependent interactions are reduced through increased mortality within a population, resulting in an increase in the population's recruitment rate sufficient to increase the population's overall abundance. Increases in a population's recruitment rate can result from reduced cannibalism of juveniles resulting in lower mortality of new recruits, from increased adult reproductive output, which increases the number of potential recruits, or from reductions in size and/or age at maturity of the unharvested population, which increases the number of reproductive individuals. I predicted the overcompensatory potential of a population of Carcinus maenas (European green crab) in Bodega Harbor, California, using a series of laboratory and field experiments examining intraspecific pressures of adults on juveniles in the population. This measure of intraspecific pressure was used to predict the overcompensatory potential of the population in response to increased mortality from ongoing removal efforts. This prediction was then assessed using pre- and post-removal surveys of juvenile recruitment in Bodega Harbor compared to nearby populations, testing for evidence of overcompensation. While adult C. maenas in Bodega Harbor had limited negative impacts on juveniles, I concluded it was unlikely to result in overcompensation. Relative juvenile abundance did not statistically increase in removal compared to reference populations, consistent with my conclusion from the experiments. Increases in recruitment rates can occur as a result of efforts to remove non-native species. This increase in recruitment can result in overcompensation, but more commonly results in compensation, where recruitment rates increase relative to pre-removal recruitment but does not result in in the population's abundance exceeding pre-removal levels. However, a detailed and accurate prediction of the response of a population to harvest is time consuming and data intensive. This is not feasible for most efforts to eradicate non-native species, which have the greatest chance of success when enacted rapidly after detection. For my final chapter, I performed a literature review and accompanying statistical analysis to determine if typically available information related to the removal effort (site size, site connectivity, and removal technique) could be used to determine increased risk of compensation for a given effort to remove aquatic invasive species. Compensation was closely linked to unsuccessful removal efforts and was observed only among efforts utilizing physical removal methods. However, the frequency with which compensation occurred varied with the exact technique employed, occurring most frequently in removal utilizing electrofishing. Additionally, evidence of compensation was more frequent among larger removal areas with variable connectivity. While other predictors (temperature, effort, etc) might add to the predicative power, the findings of the review provide criteria for managers to determine the relative risk of compensation prior to the start of removal. Further understanding of how invasive species respond to lethal biotic interactions, including anthropogenically mediated control measures, can aid in assessing the risk of invasion for a given species and inform managers of the risk of complications resulting from removal efforts. While inducible defenses may contribute to the long-term success of an introduced species in their recipient range, my findings did not support the idea that inducible defenses triggered by predator cues contributed to their initial introduction in this case. However, research on other non-native species and offspring of previously naïve prey would allow for a clearer picture of the role of inducible defenses in the invasion process. Compensation resulting from removal efforts does not guarantee failure, and certain characteristics of removal efforts seem to indicate increased risk of compensation. Together these components help identify how biotic interactions surrounding mortality risk of an invading species help shape the trajectory of invasion. Close