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• 1. [Article] Interseismic Locking on the Hikurangi Subduction Zone: Uncertainties from Slow-Slip Events

  lnterseismic locking on the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand is examined in light of alternative assumed locking distributions and the impact of transients (slow-slip and volcanic sources) on temporal ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Interseismic Locking on the Hikurangi Subduction Zone: Uncertainties from Slow-Slip Events Author: McCaffrey, Robert Year: 2014 lnterseismic locking on the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand is examined in light of alternative assumed locking distributions and the impact of transients (slow-slip and volcanic sources) on temporal and spatial resolution. The modern pattern of locking in the north is poorly resolved and, based on simulations of possible transient behavior, may be an ephemeral feature of the subduction cycle. While there appears to be some contemporary locking in the northern half of the Hikurangi subduction zone (HSZ), its location is model dependent, and hence, its relationship to structure, slow-slip, or any transition zone there is unclear. Simulations of site velocities using the 14 year history of transient events reveal that in the timescale of the interseismic period the northern half of the HSZ could be either locked or unlocked, and this may not be resolvable for decades. In the southern half, there is strong contemporary locking in the 15 to 40 km depth range, but again, the slow-slip history leads to uncertainty in the long-term pattern. Slow-slip events not only reduce the long-term locking by aseismic slip but also greatly hinder our ability to see it. It is within the range of possible models that the slip deficit rate at the HSZ is more uniform along strike, and the modern appearance is controlled by the particular pattern of transients over the past 10 to 20 years when the GPS data were collected. Similarly, uncertainties in surface velocities will be large at any subduction zone with large transients. Title: Interseismic Locking on the Hikurangi Subduction Zone: Uncertainties from Slow-Slip Events Author: McCaffrey, Robert Year: 2014 lnterseismic locking on the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand is examined in light of alternative assumed locking distributions and the impact of transients (slow-slip and volcanic sources) on temporal and spatial resolution. The modern pattern of locking in the north is poorly resolved and, based on simulations of possible transient behavior, may be an ephemeral feature of the subduction cycle. While there appears to be some contemporary locking in the northern half of the Hikurangi subduction zone (HSZ), its location is model dependent, and hence, its relationship to structure, slow-slip, or any transition zone there is unclear. Simulations of site velocities using the 14 year history of transient events reveal that in the timescale of the interseismic period the northern half of the HSZ could be either locked or unlocked, and this may not be resolvable for decades. In the southern half, there is strong contemporary locking in the 15 to 40 km depth range, but again, the slow-slip history leads to uncertainty in the long-term pattern. Slow-slip events not only reduce the long-term locking by aseismic slip but also greatly hinder our ability to see it. It is within the range of possible models that the slip deficit rate at the HSZ is more uniform along strike, and the modern appearance is controlled by the particular pattern of transients over the past 10 to 20 years when the GPS data were collected. Similarly, uncertainties in surface velocities will be large at any subduction zone with large transients. Close

• 2. [Article] Earthquake and Tsunami Forecasts: Relation of Slow Slip Events to Subsequent Earthquake Rupture

  The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Earthquake and Tsunami Forecasts: Relation of Slow Slip Events to Subsequent Earthquake Rupture Author: Dixon, Timothy H., Jiang, Yan, Malservisi, Rocco, McCaffrey, Robert, Voss, Nicholas, Protti, Marino, Gonzalez, Victor Year: 2014 The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. Title: Earthquake and Tsunami Forecasts: Relation of Slow Slip Events to Subsequent Earthquake Rupture Author: Dixon, Timothy H., Jiang, Yan, Malservisi, Rocco, McCaffrey, Robert, Voss, Nicholas, Protti, Marino, Gonzalez, Victor Year: 2014 The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. Close