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• 11. [Article] Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on Hillsboro School District (HSD) enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 and individual school forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2016‐17. Title: Hillsboro School District: Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on Hillsboro School District (HSD) enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 and individual school forecasts annually from 2012‐13 to 2016‐17. Close

• 12. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Long-Range Enrollment Forecast, 2008-09 to 2017-18

  To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Long-Range Enrollment Forecast, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast for the 2008-09 through 2017-18 school years has been prepared as a supplement to the 2008-09 to 2012-13 forecast that was presented to the TTSD Board in December, 2007. Forecasts for 2008-09 and 2009-10 for the District and its schools are identical to those published in December, and secondary school forecasts are unchanged through 2012-13. Elementary schools undergo small revisions beginning in 2010-11 due to the availability of updated birth data. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 19 of the past 20 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Under current plans there is a shrinking amount of developable residential land in the District’s communities. If plans remain unchanged and new housing construction returns to recent levels after the current downturn, the District will be near its residential capacity by the end of the 10 year horizon of these forecasts. However, additional residential capacity may be added in the West Bull Mountain area, where concept planning for areas added to the Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 is underway. Also, recent comprehensive plans envision development in the town centers of the Cities of Tigard and Tualatin that includes a mix of higher-density and affordable housing. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Long-Range Enrollment Forecast, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Smith-Buani, Joseph Year: 2008 To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast for the 2008-09 through 2017-18 school years has been prepared as a supplement to the 2008-09 to 2012-13 forecast that was presented to the TTSD Board in December, 2007. Forecasts for 2008-09 and 2009-10 for the District and its schools are identical to those published in December, and secondary school forecasts are unchanged through 2012-13. Elementary schools undergo small revisions beginning in 2010-11 due to the availability of updated birth data. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 19 of the past 20 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Under current plans there is a shrinking amount of developable residential land in the District’s communities. If plans remain unchanged and new housing construction returns to recent levels after the current downturn, the District will be near its residential capacity by the end of the 10 year horizon of these forecasts. However, additional residential capacity may be added in the West Bull Mountain area, where concept planning for areas added to the Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 is underway. Also, recent comprehensive plans envision development in the town centers of the Cities of Tigard and Tualatin that includes a mix of higher-density and affordable housing. Close

• 13. [Article] Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation

  This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long term District wide forecast was developed using patterns of migration, fertility and mortality that are most likely to occur between school years 2006 and 2015. In addition to the most likely scenario, or the medium growth forecast, two other scenarios--for higher and lower growth trends--were derived. Forecasts by grade for individual schoolsand school attendance areas were also prepared; these forecasts relied on the District wide medium growth scenario. Title: Gresham-Barlow School District 10J Enrollment Forecasts, 2007 to 2015: Results and Documentation Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Sharkova, Irina V., Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 This report represents results of a demographic study conducted by the Population Research Center (PRC) to address the long-range planning needs of the Gresham-Barlow School District 10J (GBSD). The long term District wide forecast was developed using patterns of migration, fertility and mortality that are most likely to occur between school years 2006 and 2015. In addition to the most likely scenario, or the medium growth forecast, two other scenarios--for higher and lower growth trends--were derived. Forecasts by grade for individual schoolsand school attendance areas were also prepared; these forecasts relied on the District wide medium growth scenario. Close

• 14. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2011-12 to 2020-21

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, West, David, Siu, Vivian Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of districtwide and individual school enrollments for the 2011-12 to 2020-21 school years. The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,393 students in Fall 2010, a decrease of 74 students (0.6 percent) from Fall 2009. The loss occurred at both the elementary and middle school levels, with decreases of 41 students (0.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 123 students (4.2 percent) in grades 6-8. Conversely, district-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 increased by 90 students (2.3 percent). Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2011-12 to 2020-21 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, West, David, Siu, Vivian Year: 2010 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of districtwide and individual school enrollments for the 2011-12 to 2020-21 school years. The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,393 students in Fall 2010, a decrease of 74 students (0.6 percent) from Fall 2009. The loss occurred at both the elementary and middle school levels, with decreases of 41 students (0.7 percent) in grades K-5 and 123 students (4.2 percent) in grades 6-8. Conversely, district-wide enrollment in high school grades 9-12 increased by 90 students (2.3 percent). Close

• 15. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2019-20

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of districtwide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2019-20 school years. The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,467 students in Fall 2009, a decrease of 128 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2008. The loss occurred at both the elementary and high school levels, with decreases of 88 students (1.5 percent) in grades K-5 and 71 students (1.8 percent) in grades 9-12. District-wide enrollment in middle school grades 6-8 increased by 31 students (1.1 percent). Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2010-11 to 2019-20 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2009 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of districtwide and individual school enrollments for the 2010-11 to 2019-20 school years. The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,467 students in Fall 2009, a decrease of 128 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2008. The loss occurred at both the elementary and high school levels, with decreases of 88 students (1.5 percent) in grades K-5 and 71 students (1.8 percent) in grades 9-12. District-wide enrollment in middle school grades 6-8 increased by 31 students (1.1 percent). Close

• 16. [Article] Junction City School District: Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2011-12

  After a period of sustained enrollment growth from the late 1980s through the 1997-98 school year, total enrollment in the Junction City School District (JCSD) has fallen in eight of the past nine years. ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Junction City School District: Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 After a period of sustained enrollment growth from the late 1980s through the 1997-98 school year, total enrollment in the Junction City School District (JCSD) has fallen in eight of the past nine years. During the period, all schools have lost enrollment, and the K-12 total has decreased by 248 students, from 2,083 in 1997-98 to 1,835 in 2006-07. This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for JCSD enrollment during the next five years, each with a unique assumption about the pace of expected housing development. Title: Junction City School District: Enrollment Forecasts, 2007-08 to 2011-12 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2007 After a period of sustained enrollment growth from the late 1980s through the 1997-98 school year, total enrollment in the Junction City School District (JCSD) has fallen in eight of the past nine years. During the period, all schools have lost enrollment, and the K-12 total has decreased by 248 students, from 2,083 in 1997-98 to 1,835 in 2006-07. This report presents Enrollment Forecasts prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) exploring three possible scenarios for JCSD enrollment during the next five years, each with a unique assumption about the pace of expected housing development. Close

• 17. [Article] Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26, Based on October 2011 Enrollments

  The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 46,206 K‐12 students in Fall 2011, an increase of 465 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2010. This was the third consecutive year of K‐12 growth, a reversal ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26, Based on October 2011 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan, Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2012 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 46,206 K‐12 students in Fall 2011, an increase of 465 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2010. This was the third consecutive year of K‐12 growth, a reversal from the 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses between 1997 and 2008. For the three year period since 2008‐09, the District has grown by 1,182 K‐12 students (2.6 percent). This report includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, forecasts of district‐wide enrollment, and Enrollment Forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school of attendance for the 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 school years. For the district‐wide forecast, three scenarios of population and enrollment changes were developed: a most‐likely, or medium, growth scenario; a scenario for lower growth; and a higher growth scenario. All three of the growth scenarios for the PPS district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts use similar mortality, fertility, and capture rates during the 14 year horizon. The differences between the three scenarios are primarily due to different assumptions about the levels of net migration (the net movement into and out of the District) among families with children. Title: Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2012-13 to 2025-26, Based on October 2011 Enrollments Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan, Jurjevich, Jason R. Year: 2012 The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 46,206 K‐12 students in Fall 2011, an increase of 465 students (1.0 percent) from Fall 2010. This was the third consecutive year of K‐12 growth, a reversal from the 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses between 1997 and 2008. For the three year period since 2008‐09, the District has grown by 1,182 K‐12 students (2.6 percent). This report includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, forecasts of district‐wide enrollment, and Enrollment Forecasts by area of residence (high school clusters, school attendance areas) and by individual school of attendance for the 2012‐13 to 2025‐26 school years. For the district‐wide forecast, three scenarios of population and enrollment changes were developed: a most‐likely, or medium, growth scenario; a scenario for lower growth; and a higher growth scenario. All three of the growth scenarios for the PPS district‐wide Enrollment Forecasts use similar mortality, fertility, and capture rates during the 14 year horizon. The differences between the three scenarios are primarily due to different assumptions about the levels of net migration (the net movement into and out of the District) among families with children. Close

• 18. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 to 2022-23

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,341 students in Fall 2012, a decrease of 25 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2011. This is the fourth consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the declines of the most recent two years have been small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 36 students (0.6 percent) in 2012‐13, and 238 students (4.1 percent) for the four year period since their enrollment peak in 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) in District schools gained enrollment in 2012‐13, and are just 59 students (2.0 percent) below their 2009‐10 peak. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 has been virtually unchanged since 2010‐11 and remains near its peak. In contrast to the K‐5th grade enrollment decline, Fall 2012 kindergarten enrollment of 939 in TTSD schools was the largest ever, 62 students larger than in Fall 2011. However, the kindergarten growth is not likely to be sustained, as births to District residents peaked in 2006‐07, the birth cohort that entered kindergarten in Fall 2012. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2013-14 to 2022-23 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2012 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2013‐14 to 2022‐23 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,341 students in Fall 2012, a decrease of 25 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2011. This is the fourth consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the declines of the most recent two years have been small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 36 students (0.6 percent) in 2012‐13, and 238 students (4.1 percent) for the four year period since their enrollment peak in 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) in District schools gained enrollment in 2012‐13, and are just 59 students (2.0 percent) below their 2009‐10 peak. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 has been virtually unchanged since 2010‐11 and remains near its peak. In contrast to the K‐5th grade enrollment decline, Fall 2012 kindergarten enrollment of 939 in TTSD schools was the largest ever, 62 students larger than in Fall 2011. However, the kindergarten growth is not likely to be sustained, as births to District residents peaked in 2006‐07, the birth cohort that entered kindergarten in Fall 2012. Close

• 19. [Article] North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Title: North Santiam School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2011-12 to 2025-26 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the North Santiam School District (NSSD). The three district‐wide Enrollment Forecast scenarios for the period 2011‐12 to 2025‐26 describe a long‐range in which enrollment is either relatively stable (LOW series), growing moderately (MIDDLE series), or growing rapidly (HIGH series). They differ due in their assumptions about migration levels as well as the share of District school‐age residents attending NSSD schools. Assumptions for migration rates by age and sex incorporate observations from the 1990s and 2000s, and population growth levels in each scenario are consistent with recent population forecasts for Marion County and Stayton and Sublimity. Growth expectations in the 2010 to 2020 period are tempered by the reality that employment is recovering slowly from the recession and major new industrial or residential development is not expected in the short term. In the first two years of the forecast, 2011‐12 and 2012‐13, both the LOW and MIDDLE forecasts predict overall K‐12 enrollment losses, while the HIGH forecast predicts very small gains. During the remaining 13 years of the forecast, each of the three forecasts indicates enrollment growth, though at very different rates. Close

• 20. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,366 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 27 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the change was small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 73 students (1.3 percent) in 2011‐12, and 202 students (3.5 percent) for the three year period since 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) gained 51 students (1.8 percent) in 2011‐12, mostly due to a larger sixth grade replacing a smaller eighth grade. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 was essentially stable, decreasing by just five students (0.1 percent). Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update, 2012-13 to 2021-22 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Siu, Vivian, Dann, Ryan Year: 2011 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 school years. The Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD) enrolled 12,366 students in Fall 2011, a decrease of 27 students (0.2 percent) from Fall 2010. This is the third consecutive year of K‐12 enrollment loss, but the change was small compared with the loss of 128 students in 2009‐10 and 74 students in 2010‐11. District elementary schools experienced a net loss of 73 students (1.3 percent) in 2011‐12, and 202 students (3.5 percent) for the three year period since 2008‐09. Middle grades (6th‐8th) gained 51 students (1.8 percent) in 2011‐12, mostly due to a larger sixth grade replacing a smaller eighth grade. District‐wide enrollment in high school grades 9‐12 was essentially stable, decreasing by just five students (0.1 percent). Close