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• 1. [Article] Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts

  This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Title: Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center Year: 2015 This document is to accompany the coordinated population forecasts and their corresponding reports prepared by the Population Research Center (PRC). Developing long-term coordinated population forecasts for a county and its sub-areas (UGBs and areas outside UGBs are referred to sub-areas in this document), requires these main stages: 1) compiling and evaluating historical and recent data to ascertain demographic characteristics and trends in the study area and to obtain a population base from which the forecasts may be launched; 2) making assumptions about the future and adjusting the data or rates in the forecasting models (calibrating the models) to incorporate predicted rates or trends; and 3) reconciling, or adjusting the forecasts so the sum of the sub-area forecasts is consistent with the forecast for the county total. We first develop population projections and then we make adjustments to these projections in order to produce population forecasts. Population projections are developed by extending historical and current demographic and housing trends into the future. Forecasting population requires that assumptions be made about future population change, and adjusting the projection models to account for circumstances that perhaps skewed past trends or may affect future change. Such circumstances in the past could be a building moratorium or the opening of a new group quarters facility. Events affecting future change would be, for example, planned future housing development that is higher than usual, a foreseen change in an area’s physical ability to accommodate growth (buildable land available is approaching capacity or improvements to infrastructure are underway), anticipated changes in the economy (the location of a new employer or the upswing or downturn of the economy in general), or an expected change in the local population and household composition (age, ethnicity, and average household size). Close

• 2. [Article] Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040

  The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Vaidya, Kanhaiya, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2011 The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce long-term population forecasts for each of the two sewer service districts. In addition, CCSD#1 requested that forecasts also be developed to include the entire city of Damascus to account for possible future annexation into its district; and the city of Milwaukie, as CCSD#1 leases services to Milwaukie. The forecast horizon extends 30 years from 2010 to 2040, and projections are produced in 5-year intervals. For the 2010-2015 interval, forecast numbers for single years are included. Forecasts for three growth scenarios – high, medium, and low scenarios – are developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. We consider the medium growth forecast to be the most-likely scenario. We also include in this report an analysis of recent demographic trends that have bearing on our assumptions for future growth in study areas. Title: Population Forecasts for the Tri-City ServiceDistrict, Clackamas County Service District #1, Clackamas County Service District #1 with all Damascus, and the City of Milwaukie 2010-2040 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S., Vaidya, Kanhaiya, RajBhandary, Bimal, Rancik, Kevin Year: 2011 The Tri-City Service District (TCSD) and Clackamas County Service District #1 (CCSD #1), both of Clackamas County, requested that the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University produce long-term population forecasts for each of the two sewer service districts. In addition, CCSD#1 requested that forecasts also be developed to include the entire city of Damascus to account for possible future annexation into its district; and the city of Milwaukie, as CCSD#1 leases services to Milwaukie. The forecast horizon extends 30 years from 2010 to 2040, and projections are produced in 5-year intervals. For the 2010-2015 interval, forecast numbers for single years are included. Forecasts for three growth scenarios – high, medium, and low scenarios – are developed to account for different probabilities of demographic events. We consider the medium growth forecast to be the most-likely scenario. We also include in this report an analysis of recent demographic trends that have bearing on our assumptions for future growth in study areas. Close

• 3. [Article] Sherwood School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Sherwood School District (SSD). The study includes analysis of ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Sherwood School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Sherwood School District (SSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on SSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Title: Sherwood School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Stewart, Scott Year: 2014 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Sherwood School District (SSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on SSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Close

• 4. [Article] Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2014-15 to 2023-24

  This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Title: Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2014-15 to 2023-24 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Dann, Ryan Year: 2013 This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on TTSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2023‐24 school years. Close

• 5. [Article] Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecast Update 2016‐17 to 2035‐36

  The district‐wide and individual school forecasts have been updated to incorporate 2015‐16 enrollments by school and the latest birth and residential development data, and have been extended to include ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecast Update 2016‐17 to 2035‐36 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 The district‐wide and individual school forecasts have been updated to incorporate 2015‐16 enrollments by school and the latest birth and residential development data, and have been extended to include forecasts for 2025‐26 and 2035‐36. For more demographic information about the Salem‐Keizer School District (SKSD), see “Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2015‐16 to 2024‐25” prepared by Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) in June 2015. Title: Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecast Update 2016‐17 to 2035‐36 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Rynerson, Charles, Chun, Nicholas Year: 2016 The district‐wide and individual school forecasts have been updated to incorporate 2015‐16 enrollments by school and the latest birth and residential development data, and have been extended to include forecasts for 2025‐26 and 2035‐36. For more demographic information about the Salem‐Keizer School District (SKSD), see “Salem‐Keizer School District Population and Enrollment Forecasts, 2015‐16 to 2024‐25” prepared by Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) in June 2015. Close

• 6. [Article] Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School 2005-2015

  This report provides a 2005-2015 school Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School by grade level, and includes background demographic information and analysis for Horizon Christian School’s market ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School 2005-2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2000 This report provides a 2005-2015 school Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School by grade level, and includes background demographic information and analysis for Horizon Christian School’s market area. The market area for this study consists of Northern Wasco County and Hood River County School Districts in Oregon, and White Salmon School District in Washington. Horizon Christian School, offering grades pre-kindergarten through 12, is located in the city of Hood River and its classrooms are located in rented spaces at three different sites throughout the city. Plans to construct a new facility to house Horizon on one campus have been made. The factors that are likely to affect Horizon’s enrollments are considered in this report, including the occurrence of demographic events and the construction of a new school facility. Three different scenarios of enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic changes and the effects a new school facility will have on enrollments. Each of the three Enrollment Forecasts uses one of the following assumptions: (a) current demographic and enrollment trends will continue throughout the forecast period; (b) a new school facility will be constructed and operational beginning in the 2006-07 school year, and (c) a new school facility will be operational beginning in the 2006-07 school year and population growth in Horizon’s market area will increase during the forecast period. Title: Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School 2005-2015 Author: Portland State University. Population Research Center, Proehl, Risa S. Year: 2000 This report provides a 2005-2015 school Enrollment Forecast for Horizon Christian School by grade level, and includes background demographic information and analysis for Horizon Christian School’s market area. The market area for this study consists of Northern Wasco County and Hood River County School Districts in Oregon, and White Salmon School District in Washington. Horizon Christian School, offering grades pre-kindergarten through 12, is located in the city of Hood River and its classrooms are located in rented spaces at three different sites throughout the city. Plans to construct a new facility to house Horizon on one campus have been made. The factors that are likely to affect Horizon’s enrollments are considered in this report, including the occurrence of demographic events and the construction of a new school facility. Three different scenarios of enrollment changes were developed to account for different probabilities of demographic changes and the effects a new school facility will have on enrollments. Each of the three Enrollment Forecasts uses one of the following assumptions: (a) current demographic and enrollment trends will continue throughout the forecast period; (b) a new school facility will be constructed and operational beginning in the 2006-07 school year, and (c) a new school facility will be operational beginning in the 2006-07 school year and population growth in Horizon’s market area will increase during the forecast period. Close