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• 1. [Article] The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market

  On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2016 On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit Union, concerned that history may already be repeating itself, asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate speculation within the Portland housing market, provide a forecast of home prices, and summarize potential market headwinds and tailwinds. To accomplish this, NERC estimates the change in local home prices due to ‘fundamental’ drivers. Using population and income to estimate a fundamental home price index (HPI), this analysis compares the fundamental HPI with the actual level of the Case-Shiller HPI to indicate that home values within the Portland MSA are, within a margin of error, correctly valued. This method indicates that increasing growth in income and migration significantly contributes to rising home prices. This comparison also shows a period of undervaluation following the burst of the last bubble, which helps to explain the price growth of the past few years (the ‘expansion phase’ of the recovery). This analysis uses Error-Correction (EC), General Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to forecast the inflation-adjusted Case Shiller HPI to the end of the year. The inherent strengths and weaknesses of these models necessitate a discussion of their assumptions and consequent limitations. Encouragingly, each of the models describes the same basic story: that average home sale prices will increase at a decreasing growth rate from June to at least December 2016. Changes to land use and building height restrictions are among the external shocks to home prices not included in the model. Since predicting policy decisions is fraught with risk, real-world awareness of potential political outcomes should accompany all forecasts based on known factors. Due to data limitations, not all of the indicators NERC feels are important to HPI are explicitly included in the models. Instead, these indicators offer supporting evidence. Generally, they describe a tight housing market with high demand (as indicated by income, employment, and migration) and low supply (as indicated by housing permits and inventory levels). This analysis corroborates the model estimations and supports the forecasts. Title: The State of the Portland MSA Housing Market Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2016 On its surface, the rapid increase of home prices in the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) resembles the overheated moments before the housing bubble burst in 2007. OnPoint Community Credit Union, concerned that history may already be repeating itself, asked the Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC) to investigate speculation within the Portland housing market, provide a forecast of home prices, and summarize potential market headwinds and tailwinds. To accomplish this, NERC estimates the change in local home prices due to ‘fundamental’ drivers. Using population and income to estimate a fundamental home price index (HPI), this analysis compares the fundamental HPI with the actual level of the Case-Shiller HPI to indicate that home values within the Portland MSA are, within a margin of error, correctly valued. This method indicates that increasing growth in income and migration significantly contributes to rising home prices. This comparison also shows a period of undervaluation following the burst of the last bubble, which helps to explain the price growth of the past few years (the ‘expansion phase’ of the recovery). This analysis uses Error-Correction (EC), General Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models to forecast the inflation-adjusted Case Shiller HPI to the end of the year. The inherent strengths and weaknesses of these models necessitate a discussion of their assumptions and consequent limitations. Encouragingly, each of the models describes the same basic story: that average home sale prices will increase at a decreasing growth rate from June to at least December 2016. Changes to land use and building height restrictions are among the external shocks to home prices not included in the model. Since predicting policy decisions is fraught with risk, real-world awareness of potential political outcomes should accompany all forecasts based on known factors. Due to data limitations, not all of the indicators NERC feels are important to HPI are explicitly included in the models. Instead, these indicators offer supporting evidence. Generally, they describe a tight housing market with high demand (as indicated by income, employment, and migration) and low supply (as indicated by housing permits and inventory levels). This analysis corroborates the model estimations and supports the forecasts. Close

• 2. [Article] Carlton, OR: Economic and Demographic Profile

  The Carlton Post Office was founded in 1874 along the railroad stretching from Portland to the unincorporated settlement known as St. Joe’s. According to local lore, a Mr. Wilson Carl traveled to the big ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Carlton, OR: Economic and Demographic Profile Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2017 The Carlton Post Office was founded in 1874 along the railroad stretching from Portland to the unincorporated settlement known as St. Joe’s. According to local lore, a Mr. Wilson Carl traveled to the big city to ask for an intermediate stop in what became known as Carl’s town, and later Carlton. Located in the heart of Yamhill County, Carlton enjoys a lively tourism industry for a town of its size, buoyed up by the proliferation of farms and wineries that the mild climate invites. Carlton is a small town, with a population of just over two thousand. It had a median age slightly below that for Yamhill County and the state of Oregon in 2010, due to relative abundance in the youth cohorts, but a larger share of working-age population than that observed in comparable small towns in Oregon. The local economy is dominated by the wine industry, but a sizeable percent of the population in Yamhill County is employed in the Education and Health Services sector, as well. Carlton has an above-average net migration rate, compared to both Yamhill County and the state. This report will use data from a variety of state and federal sources to describe the economic and demographic attributes of the town, provide forecasts from a number of sources for several economic and demographic factors, and outline factors to track going forwards. While small towns can be difficult to analyze due to a paucity of local-level data, information on Yamhill County at large provides considerable insight. Additionally, this report will discuss recommendations for future implementations of the Carlton Satisfaction Survey, in order to provide the City with trackable indicators going forwards. Title: Carlton, OR: Economic and Demographic Profile Author: Portland State University. Northwest Economic Research Center Year: 2017 The Carlton Post Office was founded in 1874 along the railroad stretching from Portland to the unincorporated settlement known as St. Joe’s. According to local lore, a Mr. Wilson Carl traveled to the big city to ask for an intermediate stop in what became known as Carl’s town, and later Carlton. Located in the heart of Yamhill County, Carlton enjoys a lively tourism industry for a town of its size, buoyed up by the proliferation of farms and wineries that the mild climate invites. Carlton is a small town, with a population of just over two thousand. It had a median age slightly below that for Yamhill County and the state of Oregon in 2010, due to relative abundance in the youth cohorts, but a larger share of working-age population than that observed in comparable small towns in Oregon. The local economy is dominated by the wine industry, but a sizeable percent of the population in Yamhill County is employed in the Education and Health Services sector, as well. Carlton has an above-average net migration rate, compared to both Yamhill County and the state. This report will use data from a variety of state and federal sources to describe the economic and demographic attributes of the town, provide forecasts from a number of sources for several economic and demographic factors, and outline factors to track going forwards. While small towns can be difficult to analyze due to a paucity of local-level data, information on Yamhill County at large provides considerable insight. Additionally, this report will discuss recommendations for future implementations of the Carlton Satisfaction Survey, in order to provide the City with trackable indicators going forwards. Close