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• 1. [Article] Network Analysis of Wildfire Transmission and Implications for Risk Governance

  We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Network Analysis of Wildfire Transmission and Implications for Risk Governance Author: Ager, Alan A., Evers, Cody, Day, Michelle A., Preisler, Haiganoush K., Barros, Ana M.G., Nielsen-Pincus, Max Year: 2017 We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. Title: Network Analysis of Wildfire Transmission and Implications for Risk Governance Author: Ager, Alan A., Evers, Cody, Day, Michelle A., Preisler, Haiganoush K., Barros, Ana M.G., Nielsen-Pincus, Max Year: 2017 We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. Close

• 2. [Article] Advancing Characterization of Social Diversity in the Wildland-Urban Interface: An Indicator Approach for Wildfire Management

  A growing body of research indicates that communities at risk from wildfire differ in terms of the local social context that influences adaptive planning, mitigations or collective actions. Less work has ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Advancing Characterization of Social Diversity in the Wildland-Urban Interface: An Indicator Approach for Wildfire Management Author: Paveglio, Travis B., Nielsen-Pincus, Max, Abrams, Jesse B., Moseley, Cassandra Year: 2017 A growing body of research indicates that communities at risk from wildfire differ in terms of the local social context that influences adaptive planning, mitigations or collective actions. Less work has attempted to document critical differences in that local social context across large samples. The research presented here explores a quantitative operationalization of an established framework for characterizing the social diversity of communities at risk from wildfire. We conducted structured interviews with key informants across nine U.S. states. Factor analysis, regression and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to characterize social context across communities and relate it to key informant evaluations of progress toward fire adaptation. Our results advance methods to systematically document how social context influences local wildfire adaptation by: (1) examining a preliminary set of quantitative key-informant measures for gauging social context across a range of WUI communities; (2) identifying related elements of social context that may collectively influence wildfire adaptations; (3) providing preliminary statistical evidence that highly related elements of local social context are correlated with expert assessment of local populations’ adaptations to wildfire; and (4) identifying differences in social context characteristics across a sample of western USA WUI communities. However, it also is important to recognize that the measures tested here serve as indicators of deeper conceptual understandings informed by in-depth case studies. Efforts to use these measures should be augmented with additional qualitative work and build from those deeper understandings by considering the complexity of local dynamics surrounding wildfire management. Title: Advancing Characterization of Social Diversity in the Wildland-Urban Interface: An Indicator Approach for Wildfire Management Author: Paveglio, Travis B., Nielsen-Pincus, Max, Abrams, Jesse B., Moseley, Cassandra Year: 2017 A growing body of research indicates that communities at risk from wildfire differ in terms of the local social context that influences adaptive planning, mitigations or collective actions. Less work has attempted to document critical differences in that local social context across large samples. The research presented here explores a quantitative operationalization of an established framework for characterizing the social diversity of communities at risk from wildfire. We conducted structured interviews with key informants across nine U.S. states. Factor analysis, regression and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to characterize social context across communities and relate it to key informant evaluations of progress toward fire adaptation. Our results advance methods to systematically document how social context influences local wildfire adaptation by: (1) examining a preliminary set of quantitative key-informant measures for gauging social context across a range of WUI communities; (2) identifying related elements of social context that may collectively influence wildfire adaptations; (3) providing preliminary statistical evidence that highly related elements of local social context are correlated with expert assessment of local populations’ adaptations to wildfire; and (4) identifying differences in social context characteristics across a sample of western USA WUI communities. However, it also is important to recognize that the measures tested here serve as indicators of deeper conceptual understandings informed by in-depth case studies. Efforts to use these measures should be augmented with additional qualitative work and build from those deeper understandings by considering the complexity of local dynamics surrounding wildfire management. Close