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• 1. [Article] Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries

  This paper investigates the potential impacts of the degree of divergence in open macroeconomic policies in the context of the trilemma hypothesis. Using an index that measures the relative policy divergence ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries Author: Aizenman, Joshua, Ito, Hiro Year: 2014 This paper investigates the potential impacts of the degree of divergence in open macroeconomic policies in the context of the trilemma hypothesis. Using an index that measures the relative policy divergence among the three trilemma policy choices, namely monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness, we find that emerging market countries have adopted trilemma policy combinations with the least degree of relative policy divergence in the last fifteen years. We find that a developing or emerging market country with a higher degree of relative policy divergence is more likely to experience a currency or debt crisis. However, a developing or emerging market country with a higher degree of relative policy divergence tends to experience smaller output losses when it experiences a currency or banking crisis. Latin American crisis countries tended to reduce their financial integration in the aftermath of a crisis, while this is not the case for the Asian crisis countries. The Asian crisis countries tended to reduce the degree of relative policy divergence in the aftermath of the crisis, probably aiming at macroeconomic policies that are less prone to crises. The degree of relative policy divergence is affected by past crisis experiences -- countries that experienced currency crisis or a currency-banking twin crisis tend to adopt a policy combination with a smaller degree of policy divergence. Title: Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries Author: Aizenman, Joshua, Ito, Hiro Year: 2014 This paper investigates the potential impacts of the degree of divergence in open macroeconomic policies in the context of the trilemma hypothesis. Using an index that measures the relative policy divergence among the three trilemma policy choices, namely monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness, we find that emerging market countries have adopted trilemma policy combinations with the least degree of relative policy divergence in the last fifteen years. We find that a developing or emerging market country with a higher degree of relative policy divergence is more likely to experience a currency or debt crisis. However, a developing or emerging market country with a higher degree of relative policy divergence tends to experience smaller output losses when it experiences a currency or banking crisis. Latin American crisis countries tended to reduce their financial integration in the aftermath of a crisis, while this is not the case for the Asian crisis countries. The Asian crisis countries tended to reduce the degree of relative policy divergence in the aftermath of the crisis, probably aiming at macroeconomic policies that are less prone to crises. The degree of relative policy divergence is affected by past crisis experiences -- countries that experienced currency crisis or a currency-banking twin crisis tend to adopt a policy combination with a smaller degree of policy divergence. Close

• 2. [Article] Trade Invoicing in Major Currencies in the 1970s-1990s: Lessons for Renminbi Internationalization

  In this paper, we investigate how much a major currency is used for trade invoicing by focusing primarily on the experiences of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Deutsche mark (DM) in the 1970s ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Trade Invoicing in Major Currencies in the 1970s-1990s: Lessons for Renminbi Internationalization Author: Ito, Hiro, Masahiro, Kawai Year: 2016 In this paper, we investigate how much a major currency is used for trade invoicing by focusing primarily on the experiences of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Deutsche mark (DM) in the 1970s through the 1990s. We then attempt to draw lessons for China’s renminbi (RMB) internationalization. Our data on the shares of the three major currencies in export invoicing show that the dollar was unequivocally a global invoicing currency, and that the DM was the most important regional currency in Europe while the yen was never a global or a regional currency. DM invoicing was driven by European countries’ trade ties with Germany. In contrast, the yen was not widely used for trade invoicing by Asia-Oceania countries despite the latter’s strong trade ties with Japan. Our regression analysis on the determinants of the major currency share in trade invoicing (also including UK pound sterling, the French franc, the Italian lira, and the Swiss franc) in the 1970-1998 period shows that the invoicing share of a major currency tended to be positively affected by the degree of other economies’ trade ties with the major currency country and negatively affected by the degree of their financial development or openness. Also, the major currency share in trade invoicing was affected by both other economies' assigned weights of the major currency in their implicit currency baskets and these economies’ trade shares with major-currency zone countries. Economies belonging to the U.S. dollar (or DM) zone tended to invoice their trade more in the dollar (or DM) and less in the DM (or dollar). The use of yen for trade invoicing was not much affected by these factors. European countries largely belonged to the DM zone and tended to use the DM for trade invoicing, whereas Asia-Oceania countries belonged mainly to the U.S. dollar zone, leading to a high degree of dollar use. We also find that major currency countries tended to invoice their trade in their own currencies when they had a large presence in international trade, high levels of per capita income, and financial markets that were developed and open. For China, its low level of per capita income, limited financial openness, and the presence of U.S. dollar zone countries in Asia stand as a challenge to the nation’s ambition to promote the RMB as a major trade-invoicing currency. Title: Trade Invoicing in Major Currencies in the 1970s-1990s: Lessons for Renminbi Internationalization Author: Ito, Hiro, Masahiro, Kawai Year: 2016 In this paper, we investigate how much a major currency is used for trade invoicing by focusing primarily on the experiences of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Deutsche mark (DM) in the 1970s through the 1990s. We then attempt to draw lessons for China’s renminbi (RMB) internationalization. Our data on the shares of the three major currencies in export invoicing show that the dollar was unequivocally a global invoicing currency, and that the DM was the most important regional currency in Europe while the yen was never a global or a regional currency. DM invoicing was driven by European countries’ trade ties with Germany. In contrast, the yen was not widely used for trade invoicing by Asia-Oceania countries despite the latter’s strong trade ties with Japan. Our regression analysis on the determinants of the major currency share in trade invoicing (also including UK pound sterling, the French franc, the Italian lira, and the Swiss franc) in the 1970-1998 period shows that the invoicing share of a major currency tended to be positively affected by the degree of other economies’ trade ties with the major currency country and negatively affected by the degree of their financial development or openness. Also, the major currency share in trade invoicing was affected by both other economies' assigned weights of the major currency in their implicit currency baskets and these economies’ trade shares with major-currency zone countries. Economies belonging to the U.S. dollar (or DM) zone tended to invoice their trade more in the dollar (or DM) and less in the DM (or dollar). The use of yen for trade invoicing was not much affected by these factors. European countries largely belonged to the DM zone and tended to use the DM for trade invoicing, whereas Asia-Oceania countries belonged mainly to the U.S. dollar zone, leading to a high degree of dollar use. We also find that major currency countries tended to invoice their trade in their own currencies when they had a large presence in international trade, high levels of per capita income, and financial markets that were developed and open. For China, its low level of per capita income, limited financial openness, and the presence of U.S. dollar zone countries in Asia stand as a challenge to the nation’s ambition to promote the RMB as a major trade-invoicing currency. Close

• 3. [Article] Clamoring for Greenbacks: Explaining the Resurgence of the U.S. Dollar in International Debt

  This paper investigates the determinants of currency denomination in international debt. Using data on currency shares for international debt securities for 82 countries from 1995 through 2013, we find ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Clamoring for Greenbacks: Explaining the Resurgence of the U.S. Dollar in International Debt Author: Ito, Hiro, Rodriguez, Cesar M. Year: 2015 This paper investigates the determinants of currency denomination in international debt. Using data on currency shares for international debt securities for 82 countries from 1995 through 2013, we find that while the extent of foreign currency issuance has not changed much since the 1990s, especially for developing countries, the currency composition has shifted, especially between the U.S. dollar and the euro. Before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, the share of the U.S. dollar has been on a downward trend while that of the euro had been on a steady rising trend, but since the crisis, the U.S. dollar share rebounded. With these findings, we estimate the determinants for the shares of the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the total of foreign currencies in international debt denomination. Our empirical analysis yields the following findings. First, not only does economic size matter, but also a country’s monetary, financial and fiscal stance. Second, countries seem to increase their reliance on the euro first before increasing their issuance of debt in domestic currency. Third, financial opening has a persistent, effective influence on both the extent of foreign currency denomination and the shares of individual major currencies. Lastly, by applying the baseline estimation model only to the data before 2007, we conduct a counterfactual analysis to examine what would have happened to the shares of the major currencies had it not been for the GFC. Our results show that without the occurrence of the GFC, the share of the euro in international debt in 2013 would have been 9 percentage points higher at 24%, while the share of the dollar would have been 13 percentage points lower at 54%. Considering a conservative scenario for the near future, the dollar will likely continue dominating the denomination of international debt. In 2020 the share of the dollar in international debt could be at 63% while the share of the euro could be 18%. Title: Clamoring for Greenbacks: Explaining the Resurgence of the U.S. Dollar in International Debt Author: Ito, Hiro, Rodriguez, Cesar M. Year: 2015 This paper investigates the determinants of currency denomination in international debt. Using data on currency shares for international debt securities for 82 countries from 1995 through 2013, we find that while the extent of foreign currency issuance has not changed much since the 1990s, especially for developing countries, the currency composition has shifted, especially between the U.S. dollar and the euro. Before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, the share of the U.S. dollar has been on a downward trend while that of the euro had been on a steady rising trend, but since the crisis, the U.S. dollar share rebounded. With these findings, we estimate the determinants for the shares of the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the total of foreign currencies in international debt denomination. Our empirical analysis yields the following findings. First, not only does economic size matter, but also a country’s monetary, financial and fiscal stance. Second, countries seem to increase their reliance on the euro first before increasing their issuance of debt in domestic currency. Third, financial opening has a persistent, effective influence on both the extent of foreign currency denomination and the shares of individual major currencies. Lastly, by applying the baseline estimation model only to the data before 2007, we conduct a counterfactual analysis to examine what would have happened to the shares of the major currencies had it not been for the GFC. Our results show that without the occurrence of the GFC, the share of the euro in international debt in 2013 would have been 9 percentage points higher at 24%, while the share of the dollar would have been 13 percentage points lower at 54%. Considering a conservative scenario for the near future, the dollar will likely continue dominating the denomination of international debt. In 2020 the share of the dollar in international debt could be at 63% while the share of the euro could be 18%. Close