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• 1. [Article] Assessing the Impacts of Federal Forest Planning on Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

  We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Assessing the Impacts of Federal Forest Planning on Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA Author: Ager, Alan A., Day, Michelle A., Short, Karen C., Evers, Cody R. Year: 2016 We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent WUIs. The bulk of the predicted WUI exposure originated from simulated fires ignited outside of conservation and preservation reserves and in dry forests, rather than moist mixed conifer forests. Thus the notion that fuel buildup in reserves on national forests contributes to wildfire risk in the urban interface was only partially supported by the data for the region studied. Most of the national forest lands that contribute wildfires to the WUI are not within the boundaries of community wildfire protection plans, which may undermine the effectiveness of these planning efforts. We used the spatial data themes developed in the study to map conflicts and opportunities for restoration and mitigation of WUI wildfire risk. The analysis disentangles the spatial complexity of managing landscapes for multiple socio-ecological objectives as part of ongoing restoration programs, collaborative planning, and national forest plan revisions on national forests in the US. Title: Assessing the Impacts of Federal Forest Planning on Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA Author: Ager, Alan A., Day, Michelle A., Short, Karen C., Evers, Cody R. Year: 2016 We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent WUIs. The bulk of the predicted WUI exposure originated from simulated fires ignited outside of conservation and preservation reserves and in dry forests, rather than moist mixed conifer forests. Thus the notion that fuel buildup in reserves on national forests contributes to wildfire risk in the urban interface was only partially supported by the data for the region studied. Most of the national forest lands that contribute wildfires to the WUI are not within the boundaries of community wildfire protection plans, which may undermine the effectiveness of these planning efforts. We used the spatial data themes developed in the study to map conflicts and opportunities for restoration and mitigation of WUI wildfire risk. The analysis disentangles the spatial complexity of managing landscapes for multiple socio-ecological objectives as part of ongoing restoration programs, collaborative planning, and national forest plan revisions on national forests in the US. Close

• 2. [Article] Network Analysis of Wildfire Transmission and Implications for Risk Governance

  We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon ...

  Citation × Citation Citation Abstract Copy Title: Network Analysis of Wildfire Transmission and Implications for Risk Governance Author: Ager, Alan A., Evers, Cody, Day, Michelle A., Preisler, Haiganoush K., Barros, Ana M.G., Nielsen-Pincus, Max Year: 2017 We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. Title: Network Analysis of Wildfire Transmission and Implications for Risk Governance Author: Ager, Alan A., Evers, Cody, Day, Michelle A., Preisler, Haiganoush K., Barros, Ana M.G., Nielsen-Pincus, Max Year: 2017 We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. Close